Cheltenham Festival
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At the end of the season in the Punchestown festival, the champion novice hurdle was won in spectalular fashion by Blackstairmountain.
He had the very useful General Miller well behind, and was travelling so easily that he could be named the winner about 3 hurdles out.
He is the trainers idea of a champion hurdle contender this year.
Blackstairmountain has had only 4 hurdle races in his life and looks sure to improve again this season - which as with most if not all novice hurdlers he needs to do to be competetive.
So there you have it, the Mullins champion hurdle contender, an easy winner of the best Irish novice hurdle run last season in Ireland in brilliant fashion, a very likely if not certain improver who acts on any going but likes good ground especially.
Now all this sounds fine, but look at the price available. I just backed him for small stakes at 75 - yes 75.
This is some value imo.
He had the very useful General Miller well behind, and was travelling so easily that he could be named the winner about 3 hurdles out.
He is the trainers idea of a champion hurdle contender this year.
Blackstairmountain has had only 4 hurdle races in his life and looks sure to improve again this season - which as with most if not all novice hurdlers he needs to do to be competetive.
So there you have it, the Mullins champion hurdle contender, an easy winner of the best Irish novice hurdle run last season in Ireland in brilliant fashion, a very likely if not certain improver who acts on any going but likes good ground especially.
Now all this sounds fine, but look at the price available. I just backed him for small stakes at 75 - yes 75.
This is some value imo.
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Replies: 35
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I love this horse a lot
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stone me
all the prices on here have gone now, last price matched 55. |
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Pulled out this w-end due to Paddy Mullins death, but very interesting contender for forthcoming season,luckily nicked 3 fig prices to small money for Champion Hurdle.
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Very nice prospect, and a fun bet at 75 but I just can't have him as a Champion Hurdler after his very poor effort in the Supreme Novices - was there an obvious excuse for that?
He is very much flat bred so not sure whether chasing will be his game but he should get 2m4f no problem and there will be plenty of small field graded hurdles for him in Ireland so can be a real money spinner. Maybe the Aintree hurdle might be more his thing? |
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excellent horse
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Unclepuncle
I am inclined to forgive him the Cheltenham flop. It was only his second hurdle race and he ran miles below form. I don't know if there was an excuse as such, but I always give a horse one poor run, especially when they have proven to be much better in other bits of form. There doesn't seem to be any question of him being a bit dodgy yet, so the chances are it was just one of those things. The interesting race was the last of the season on good ground. That was the effort of a fine prospect and the interesting thing about the race was the way he travelled in a 2 miler on good going. he quickened up really smartly and pretty much outclassed the opposition. (he is definitely a smart prospect and one of the few from the novice ranks from last season that could break through into the top class this year.) - this leads me to think he will not need a trip, especially up the hill at Cheltenham. If he had run the same race at Cheltanham as he had in the champion novice event at OPuchestown, he would be around 16/1 for the Chamion Hurdle now not 50/1. He just looks very good value. A coupkle of other observations. In the stable tour, the trainer (no mug) said he hoped he would develop into a Champion Hurdle horse this year. The other observation is that when he reappears, and it seems he is not that far away, he is likely to show a quality that is well better than his current champion hurdle price would indicate. Backing at odds over 50/1 would seem a quite likely way to a profitable trade, as laying at odds of even 33 would make a tidy sum. |
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Hurricane Fly is undoubtedly Willie Mullins number one Champion Hurdle hope. I like Blackstairmountain also, but I can't have him winning the Champion Hurdle.
General Miller had only ran 11 days previously at Aintree so he had excuses why he didn't perform up to that run. Also, I remember when he absolutely cruised past Luska Lad, went to about 1/100 in running and then got chinned on the line (albeit on heavy ground). Champion Hurdle looks strong this year. Menorah, GMOOH, Peddlers Cross are all top class second season novices; plus a fit Hurricane Fly and Go Native plus if Dunguib can reproduce his best - Blackstairmoutain will struggle to win. |
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needs good ground and doesnt quite stay on softish ground
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He is a very talented horse but Punchestown festival form very rarely has any bearing whatsoever on the following seasons championship races at cheltenham. The 2 courses are completely different and most of the horses who go on to punchestown having either won or run well at chelt have left their race behind at cheltenham or are over the top for the season by then. They then get turned over at short odds and the winners of these races are then touted for the following years Cheltenham on the back of these results and very rarely double up imo
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All the last 3 points are very fair of course. However he was some 75 on here when this thread started. To be honest I was a layer at 38 and have a nice win if he does it next March for a stake of zero.
I will keep backing him at anything over 48 though as this is still my idea of value. Trouble with "Go Native is his number one" is that although true just now, may not be so true come March after half the current fancied horses have either died, got injured or run badly. The trend if it is one of horses that triumph at the Puchestown festival not going on to win at the next Cheltenaham is a bit dubious - if you aren't careful you would end up thinking that a horse that had been utterly shatton at Punchestown had a better chance that Blackstairmountain who actually shatton pretty decent opposition. My 3 against the field are Binocular, Dunguib and Blackstairmountain. |
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a lot of sense there cry - hope to see this fella up North this week in the race Go Native won last year, he was entered over the wknd but pulled out I imagine for obvious reasons. Still think the Fly is prob the best horse in that stable tho
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^^^Go Native was beat at Down Royal last year by Voler La Vedette.
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sorry yes -the 2nd season novice race?
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only chance this has of winning the champion hurdle is no chance
help this helps imo |
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Very well thought out articulated comment Fashion!
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fashion
money where cake hole seems to be then. Come on and lay me 50/1. If he has no chance 50/1 a lay is dead easy money isn't it? Go on be brave! Or are you just all mouth and lacking in the trouser dept.? |
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Come on. Just a measly £20 at 50. Its peanuts to us serious players I am sure.
The horse has "no chance". Its a free £20 for you to save your credibility on the forum. Come an Fashion - be a man not a mouse! |
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thgis horse has the class to be a contender
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Don't say such things Dan. my friend may decide against laying my paltry bet because of you!
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best of luck with black but i cant have him either i think khyber kim will be a lot closer to bin this time round and at 12s i think is a good price imo i would like to see paddy kick on first this time an see if bin can catch him as for last years novices i think there a poor bunch and would be more worried of Cue Card then the likes of Dunguib,Menorah,GMOOH
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Chief Dan, respect your opinion but I do think this years Champion Hurdle will be stronger than last years if all turn up on the day.
From last year Zaynar, Celestial Halo, Medermit, Punjabi, Raise Your Heart and Won in the Dark all probably won't be running this year. Swap them with Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Dunguib, possibly Walkon, Saldatino, Blackstairmountain and Sanctuaire and I think the second list is stronger. Also as I said earlier a fully fit Go Native will also take some beating. Just an opinion, anyone is entitled to disagree. |
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Mickie,
In on Friday in 2.35 in D.R. against LUSKA LAD and SUMMIT MEETING |
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blackstairsmountain will never be good enough to win a champion hurdle on blackpool beach even jmo
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Having already suggested Barizan for the Champion I probably have a nerve to be even commenting here, but I do think Menorah has all the credentials granted decent ground.
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We'll find out a bit more tomorrow since he is due to run.
If he wins tomorrow - and this is not a forgone conclusion given its first time out against opposition rated higher than he is and getting weight -- his price will tumble drastically. |
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Hve backed him for today's race if he doesn't win here game over for ch prospects.
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Looks like he needed the run badly. Interesting to see him next time
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Too bad to be true,ground maybe issue but form of race throw out window?
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was he lame on his left hind leg?
looked to me he was, also he was fat as a cow today and was blowing badly after the race. |
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Thought he started hanging from about 3 out, will give him another chance going left handed.
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Stable not really firing on all cylinders yet. Expect some of this weeks failures to clean up at Leopardstown at Christmas.
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I have watched the Supreme from last year a few times and he came with every chance and just emptied is ground a big factor here is good ground with no cut the ideal ground
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Roll on the Hatton`s Grace H`dle
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WHERE to now then.............................
Tue, 15th 3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) Wed, 16th 4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) Thu, 17th 3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1) Fri, 18th 2.05 Vincent O`Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) |
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WM said in the Weekender stable tour - County
I have already backed him for the County @ 16/1 NRNB and think he will start a lot shorter. |