Is there anything out there to challenge Big Buck's?

Benbane Head

Majority of obvious contenders either appear to be going down the novice chase route{Zaynar,reve de sivola,time for Rupert}or are likely to be campaigned at shorter trips(peddlars cross).Maybe Bensalem is interesting given he wasn't the most natural jumper of fences and ran well in  grade one company at punchestown on his final start.A total wild card might be Dunguib, jumping at two mile championship pace proved his undoing last spring and a step up in trip may not be a bad idea imo

Bensalem interesting shout tbf

Quevega if the mares hurdle wasn't such a penalty kick

Barry do me a favour ffs [smiley:crazy]

Quevega would be the obvious contender but as you point out the mares race looks at her mercy what do u make of the Dunguib angle?

I will be ttt'ing this fred next March imo [:p]

Obviously he is the one to beat but from an AP point of view i have backed Benbane Head -

Zaynar still unproven over trip imo - Quevega mares? - Time For Rupert,Reve Chasing? - Peddlers CH?

Think 30s is value - 2 runs over 3m - in a ptp won well and lto over hurdles hosed up

Obviously has to step up but has only had 5 runs under rules and with doubts over the targets of many at the top of the market i think 30+ is value

Not listed with any books though[smiley:crazy]

Can't see him being aimed at anything other than the Champion

Would be of obvious interest in the unlikely event he stepped up in trip

The two mile route is far more likely i agree but given he did seem to fall short in the championship races, he would need to seriously brush up his jumping at speed to be winning championship races over two miles.That said he is a horse of great potential and he could simply get better at his obstacles with experience,i brought up the idea of stepping up to 3 miles just as an idea

It's not a bad idea [;)]

Just got about 50lb to find Barry and BH will be right there

nothing to touch him imo. He will go down as the greatest staying hurdler of all time in next 12 months.

He is imo, but the problem with that is the 3 mile division is severely lacking in strength, and we will get a similar scenario to Best Mate in that he didn't beat very much

tbf nothing took him on in his 2nd WH because he'd scared off all credible opposition by stuffing throughout the season. I thought the first win was a top performance against another 170+ rated hurdler

lets get a charity match bet on

big bucks v kauto star over 3 miles at cheltenham over hurdles.

Yeah Punchy a serious horse tbf

Would like to see that Howdi, think BB would win though

I wouldn't take the 5/4. Andy Stewart has told Bobby Dazzler that the WH will be his target before a possible crack at the GC in 2012, but I think that if it becomes obvious that Kauto and Denman's powers are waning, PFN will be prompting the Stewarts to have a crack at the GC this season. I've had a speculative bet at 12s for the GC - he's 5/2 at best (all else being equal) if he turns up there. I've added Time for Rupert at 12s for the WH in a double - probably the only 'linked' bet you could hope to be paid out on these days!

5/2 if he turned up get out of town [smiley:crazy]

Well, he'd probably only turn up if Kauto and Denman were out of the picture and BB had proved his jumping. He's 4 from 5 at Cheltenham, stays, and probably has the best engine in NH racing.  Given these circumstances, what price would you offer on the day Howdi?

Have to agree with Howdi. He's a long way from being 5/2 until he proves he can brush up his jumping imo.

havin gseen his jumping in hennessey 08 mate Id say he would be available at around 9/2 5-1 more if he just turned up without a prep race.

But he wouldn't turn up unless he'd proved his jumping - that's why I qualified my first post by saying 'all else being equal'. So assuming he'd proved he could jump, what price do you think he'd be at the off?

zaynar for the world hurdle and big bucks would have to be 6/1 to be even entertained in a GC

hes totally unstoppable. simple as

wont run over fences again imo

Went hurdling cos he could'nt jump fences well enough.Dont see that changing now.Stick to what the horse does best imo.
Nothing to touch him unless Zaynar stays,which imo he wont,or TFR improves,which is likely,but he could well go chasing.
Would not back him at this moment personally,but would understand some big hitters having a go.

5/1 pal.

may as well take a chance and back him now

for the GC that is

Steeple you know I respect your opinion but 5/2 if he turns up?

The horse couldnt jump the last time he tried fences I dont see why everybody feels that a few seasons over hurdles means he will now be able to.

If this horse ever wins the Gold Cup I will chcuk the game!

By the way Im not just saying that to be smart which now reading it it may come across that way.

If he had proved himself at home there is no way they would be spending time over hurdles imo.

i dunno i think he could balloon 3 or 4 fences and still win hes that superior to the rest.

if and when peddlers fails to cut it amongst the elite 2 milers he will be aimed at the stayers.

yes 5/2 seems madness doesn't it...couldn't jump last time.....they'd be better off trusting what a friend a bit more....what a season that horse had last year....and all achieved with a breathing problem....which has been dealt with.

his jumpoing wasnt tyhat bad . hed still be able to win grade 1s jumping similar.

Quote from my earlier post:  Well, he'd probably only turn up if Kauto and Denman were out of the picture and BB had proved his jumping.

It's two years since the horse jumped a fence.  It might be that he will never be any good over fences, but they schooled him over baby fences prior to his Aintree victory in April and PFN pronounced himself well pleased with that schooling session.  Why bother even with baby fences if a reasonably imminent return to the major obstacles had been completely discounted?

According to Bobby D, Andy Stewart says the horse will go for the GC in 2012 so there must be a reasonable degree of confidence that his fencing will have improved enough.  If that is the case, then I think events might just conspire for that decision to be moved forward a year. I'm happy to be wrong about that for a small bet at 12s and remain convinced he'd be no more than 5/2 if turning up and quite probably a fair bit shorter.

Just to clarify (and repeat from my earlier post), I would not expect him to line up unless his fencing had been tested and proved sound so we are talking about him putting up at least two convincing performances in quality 'chases beforehand, probably more.  That is the premise on which I forecast his likely SP.  Howdi, if you'd care to lay that 5/1 NRNB I'd be delighted to take it.

Isn't this a bit like saying 'if binocular could stay 3 miles and jump fences he'd be favourite for the gold cup' ?

I know what you mean, there's a chance he could go for the gold cup and if nicholls entered him, you'd have to believe there's a chance. i think i'd prefer to back seasoned chasers for the gold cup though.

I'm not sure how Big Bucks will prove his jumping prior to the GC, in what other race are they going to run at that speed against the best horses around? I think even if Kauto and Denman disappoint this year he will still go for the hatrick in the WH

Just to keep things in perspective, in his 7 races over fences, he made 9 mistakes in total, three of those in the same race (a Grade 2 at Aintree, which he won beating Battlecry and Albertas Run).

Prior to his last-fence unseat, he'd made only one error when trying to become the first five-year-old to win the Hennessy: he carried 11.7

see how he goes on saturday bjg, though distance will be short

I'll lay the 5-1

Thanks Howdi.  If you'd like to PM me at steeplechasingatgmaildotcom we can organise it.

Hi Steeplechasing. Do you use the exchanges?

Thre is no doubt at all Big Bucks would be over fences now if Kauto wasnt around. Zaynar for me wont be as good at the trip as he was over shorter.

LOL at Steeplechasing...5/2 Big Bucks for the Gold Cup??? Yer having a larf!! 5/2 to fall you mean?

I don't understand why you would take 12/1 with the bookies, when he's available at 60+ on the exchanges. No one else questioned it, so maybe I've read it wrong.

ryanwe, I use Betfair regularly but BB was nowhere near the price he is now when I placed the bet.  Also, I particularly wanted a double with TFR for the World Hurdle on the basis that the bet was a very rare 'related contingency' one in that the bookies would have to pay out on it.

Since placing it, as I mentioned, BB connections have now said he will stay hurdling, hence his price on here.  I think those odds are an accurate reflection of his chances of turning up much more than his chances of winning.

Ballydoyle, what price do you think he should be if turning up in the Gold Cup?

Indeed Springmoon, its a decent lookin race, distance too short for him though imo

Would be very satisfied with a top 3 finish

Fair enough Steeple, just didn't make much sense to me at the time. Good luck.

Sivota could be a dark one in the WH picture!

It is not beyond possibilty BB's fencing can improve, and improve markedly. He was just a 5yo when running in the Hennessy and he nearly won it.

I wouldn't be surpsied if Punchestowns came back to hurdles ... didn't look great in the RSA .. any ideas on his plans ?

even if he did sint he cant beat big bucks that has been proved. henderson always says if we came back to hurdles wed track him then beat him for pace but hes all mouth

Punchestowns fractured a hock in the RSA, and didn't exactly have an ideal prep (possibly unknowingly caused by the injury?)

Graduation chases then GC is the plan iirc

cheers FFT. Had no idea about his injury

Does anybody know if Fiveforthree is over his injuries and whether he is staying over hurdles? Hacked up lto at his first try over 3 miles.

BJG, if you want to see how he s progressing, theres a feature on him tomorrow morning on At the Races, between 11-12.30

Benbane Head runs at Chepstow tomorrow.

I am going to give Tidal Bay another go.If he can produce another performance like he did when beating TFR at Chelt last season,which is possible given his talent,then he would go close.Of course he could produce his WH run which was awful.Thats the horse,but at current odds i am willing to have a go.

tidal bay another chance

Restless Harry will be serving it up to bb
at the Festival
Probably not good enuf though

TB was receiving 4lb from Rupert in the Cleeve

theres no challengers stop giving horses names out justr accept this horse is unstoppable . cant believe names such as restless harry, tiday bay, benbane head are being banded about .

Bensalem, Quevega and Peddler's Cross the only possible 3 that can be on my mind imo

Bensalem may not even run this season
Quevega has the mares as a penalty kick
Peddler's goes for the Champion

Even if they turn up on the Thursday they'll still have a massive mountain to climb

I'll stop looking now

Interesting (to me, at least) that Andy Stewart said the other day he thought what Celestial Halo wanted was 3 miles over hurdles but Ruby had persuaded him to have one more go over fences. It strengthens my belief that Mr Stewart is thinking of putting Big Buck's over fences sooner rather than later if he can find a credible World Hurdle sub

Doubt it - think it will happen next season. Still has Kauto, Denman & What A Friend, as well as Taranis and Neptune Collonges over fences. This might be the swnsong season for the first two, so maybe next year will be his opportunity to shine over the larger obstacles.

I think that is plan A JC.  I can't really have any of the 5 you mention and as the season progresses I believe that the yard will start to realise they don't have a potential GC winner other than BB; problem will be, have they enough time at that point to get a couple of 'chases into BB to prove he can now jump well enough for a Gold Cup?

I've said it once and I'll say it again - Big Bucks stays over hurdles this season and all being well will start his 2011/12 season in the Betfair Chase.

You heard it here first.

Steeple, if you cant have any of those 5 then presumably there would not be many others horse you fancy for the GC either. Lots of people are expecting their to be a changing of the guard,predominatly on the basis that the likes of Denman and Kauto could be regressing .. but we still need to see the new challengers who haven't proved themselves yet.

The only one,imo,who has remotley proved himself as a potential GC winner is Weapons Amnesty but he is injured. Long Run is far from being the finished article and I doubt we'll see the best of him until he is 7, i.e Next season.

Lee_SHA
Joined: 11 Jan 09
Replies: 836 23 Oct 10 19:31   
I've said it once and I'll say it again - Big Bucks stays over hurdles this season and all being well will start his 2011/12 season in the Betfair Chase.

You heard it here first.

think we heard it from nichools first

any news on Dunguib?

Sint, this is how I see it fwiw:

Kauto Star: Won a very slowly run GC beating little: Won a GC which looked great on paper but subsequently clear it was a much below par Denman plus the usual suspects.  Magnificent racehorse, probably the most consistent I've ever seen and the Kempton specialist par excellence, but another year on his back and the memories of his last Cheltenham experience no help at all.

Denman:  Two seasons ago, at the height of his powers, I posted (to much abuse) that I thought his jumping was a bit suspect (cue demolition of fences at Aintree and Newbury). Another wonderful horse but I think that maybe the worst thing that happened to him was the loss of Sam Thomas.  I think Thomas understood him better than his other riders and the pair got on well.  I doubt he'll get the ride back.  AP is 0 from 3 on him.  Ruby will go with KS or WAF (almost certainly the former, I think, for political purposes if nothing else). 

Along with the loss of ST, Denman's had heart problems, fitness problems, reported attitude problems.  Once again, a magnificent horse at his best, but he never saves anything for himself and he's probably given of his best too many times for his own good.

Neptune Collonges: had plenty of chances and would have done it by now - 6 runs at Cheltenham and not managed to get in the first two.  No chance of winning a GC barring a major multiple accident.

WAF:  Not good enough.

Taranis:  Too many training problems and only the same horse as Carruthers on latest form: not good enough.

Long Run:  Doesn't jump well enough and is probably not good enough anyway.

Imperial Commander:  Bobby Dazzler says he is better than ever and I've no reason to doubt that and he must be favourite until something credible emerges. 

I think the value probably lies in Sizing Europe at the moment: he has class, Festival form, jumps well if a bit carefully and at 30 on here, I'm willing to take a chnace on his stamina.

I don't question that Andy Stewart's current intention is to win a third World Hurdle with Big Buck's but I think as things pan out over the season, three Gold Cups might appeal more, and if that's to be achieved then 2011 needs to be the first one.  On that basis the 50 on here appeals.  I mentioned on another thread that if he went to post in the GC, BB would be a 5/2 chance at best.  I was laughed at for that assertion but the posters who I asked to offer me a price NRNB have failed to deliver.

mathamatically he isnt a 5/2 shot mate anyone with a good knowledge of odds will tell you that.

you wouldnt be getting so big on here if he was.

I think IC should be Fav aswell and i'd agree with you about Neptune.

WAF however still has scope to improve, even if he is a little quirky.

A lot of the Irsih runners like Pandorama and Joncol need hock deep ground.

I just think it is a little dangerous to write-off the great horses even if they are on the wain, because if they are 10lb below thier best, it could still be enough to win.

I read your post on the other thread also, and thought it was a bit silly for some to rul out the possibilty of BB jumping improving over fences. He was just 5 in the Hennessy and still nearly won in spite of his jumping. But I do like everyone get the strong impression that BB will stays over hurdles. IF you cant get NRNB then good stuff.

i wouldnt be laying kauto at 6-1 with stolen money the horse is a legend.

Well Howdi, your email might have gone astray but I still haven't had your promised offer of 5/1 NRNB

If you think your mathematical knowledge of odds beats mine then once again you can reach me at steeplechasingatgmaildotcom.

And if Ballydoyle checks in (who LOL'd at my 5/2 prediction), I'm still waiting for your quote.

big bucks will run in the henessy next season not the betfair . massively well handicapped as long as he jumps

i want paying by paypal

sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 8284 23 Oct 10 15:48
TB was receiving 4lb from Rupert in the Cleeve

Yes,and he beat him well,and arguably the best form of last season with the exception of BB in the WH.
Tidal Bay is still young enough to run big races,and at his best he is capable of a big run.Yes he is dodgy and always likely to down tools,but when he decides to put it in,then he is a threat.
People can say what they like,mock,whatever,but if he repeats his Cleeve run he will be a lot shorter than he currently is.
I have seen a few names banded about on here as possible threats to BB,and not one of them has better form over 3m at Chelt than TB.
at his current odds imo he is worth a dabble,and the more that think the opposite is fine with me.

It's a big IF though Buddeliea, but I guess that's factored into his price. TB has been a bitter disappointment to me, as he looked as if he could become a very good horse indeed early in his career, but it just hasn't happened, and he's become a bit unreliable, and I won't touch him.

Agree it is a big IF,but you are right re the price,and thats why i am prepared to give him another go.Yes he is unreliable and i dont blame anyone for not touching him.But we have all seen what he CAN do,he may,jusy may,do it again.
I backed him at 500 plus odds last season,and when he won the cleeve,i got very excited,and he then ran like a pig in the WH.So no one knows better than me what a let down he can be,but i also know what he is capable of.Mind you i was in a good position on the day!!
During the season he could well put in a performance that will see his odds reduced.Its possible.

Buddilea I remember telling u before Big Bucks had even shown what a great 3m hurdler he was that he was SERIOUS, no u wudnt listen, u were a Kasbah Bliss man, now after dominating the division ever since u r putting forward Tidal Bay as a challenger? No way, I would not be surprised if TB has won his last race, he had potential a few years back but his trainer has screwed him up by messing him around over trip and obstacle. NOTHING will touch Big Bucks but if I had to put a name forward Id say Rite Of Passage but who knows how Weld will campaign him and wether jumps is even a consideration after his Ascot Gold Cup win?

ps Zaynar will come out and win in graded company and look a likely challenger but when push comes to shove he wont have the class to live with the Bucks

I was indeed a Kasbah Bliss man,and not the only one.I was proved wrong,and i am in no way saying that TB is as good as BB.Just saying that if he produces his best form which he is capable of,at the odds he is worth a dabble.Never be afarid of one horse,anything can happen.TB has proved that on his day he is as least as good as last seasons 2nd.That puts him in the picture,no denying that.

Not convinced Zaynar will stay 3m.

tidal bay is a nutcase

and even if zaynar does stay 3 he cant beat big bucks

In answer to the original question; now that he is staying over hurdles, Get Me Out Of Here could be the one to challenge BB.

Owner already has Binocular for the CH, so I can see this one being steadily stepped up in trip over the season and running in the WH.

Nothing of note fancying a crack at him on Saturday

love t see reve de sivola give it a try and if things dont work out then go novice chasing next season

^^^ lol Reve

Face it your season is fecked Rupert saw to that. Get that name changed to Cue Card and your popularity will grow.

would liked to have seen Tidal Bay running instead of last week.

howdi il have you that im a smashin hurdler! just thiat if big bucks gets injured, what sort of a s goin t win the world hurdle

s = mungrel

hope mccoy forgets his whip tomorrow. the king is back go on big bucks

1/3 yes please.

peddlers cross could be his biggest rival after tomorrow

LONG RUN could do what BB did in his early hurdling days .. switch from fences, same age aswell.

Carruthers should go back hurdling imo. What make the horses life much easier than jumping Fences.

evidently not