french opera

yeah but shhhh

Must have a fair old engine, this one. He made plenty of mistakes in his jumping last season, yet still managed to finish in front on most occasions. Lost count of how many blunders he made in his final race at Ayr, yet he came good in the end and saw out the 20f trip much better than many had expected off a reasonably searching pace for a small field race. As they finished him off over 20f last season, I guess the possibility of him being tried over the intermediate distance again this season (rather than 2 miles)partly explains his current price for the QM.

They go such a fast pace in the QM from the start, I'd want to see evidence that his jumping has become more fluent under that kind of pressure before marking him down as a live outsider for the QM. But, on the other hand, there doesn't look to be a lot of strength in depth in the likely QM field at this early stage, assuming Sizing Europe and Forpadydeplasterer bypass the race. I wouldn't doubt that French Opera is classy enough to be a much better horse than his current official rating indicates, if the fluency of his jumping would improve to the level it needs to reach in order to be competitive in a race like the QM.

Unless something comes out of the woodwork, FRENCH OPERA will likely be the QM horse for Henderson in 2011. I reckon if it had taken its chance last March, it would have been in the 1st-3 (at least beating Kalahari King).

I agree about the jumping but he always seems to get round and hasn't got much to find on official ratings. With his record at Cheltenham, I'm happy with my 40 and 38.

I agree that he has shown the quality of a lot of good horses of being able to right himself well enough after a blunder to stay upright. And his record (especially at Cheltenham) is impressive in the context of a horse that has made at least one or two significant jumping errors in most of his races over fences.

agree with Fidway

Doesn't jump well enough to win a champion chase for me but horse does have some engine would be more interesting if he went for Ryanair imo.

Must admit, I just don't get it when "not jumping well enough" is cited as a reason for not considering a horse for the Champion Chase. Would a similar reason be given when considering the chances of the following horses: Moscow Flyer, Well Chief, Kauto Star? All 3 have started as a short-priced fav for the race and all 3 have fallen in it when the short-priced fav - and all 3 had shown definite tendencies to "drop-a-leg" at the occassional fence prior to their falls in the CC.

Horses take fences at a speed unmatched in any other race when contesting the Champion Chase, so its not entirely out of the question that they get the odd one wrong.

Wayward ,French Opera is just not quick over his fences the 3 you name were all super slick over there fences, i'm not saying French Opera can't jump just think it's jumping would cost it too many lengths overall to win a Champion Chase.

This race has been won by some iffy jumpers and I don't think you'll see many worse rounds of jumping than when Flagship Uberalles won. Ability to act round Cheltenham (and stay further than 2 miles) is often as important.

Good points, Booster.

I see Henderson has issued this comment about French Opera in the ATR stable tour. “Won four out of five last season, never stopped amazing us for a novice winning three handicaps. It won’t be easy off 158 but he did show us that he handles soft ground and stays two and a half miles. He’s one of quite a few that look Ryanair material.”

Not entirely sure what to make of the Ryanair reference and certainly wouldn't be reading too much into it, though taken at face value it would seem to suggest the stable has given more than a passing thought to the idea that the horse may be suited by a little further than the minimum trip over fences in top company.

a yard full of 2.5m chasers.

Henderson is pointing to exactly what i said needs more than 2 miles in top company where his jumping will be less pressurised.

As pointed out on a different thread though - why aim for the ryanair until you know you can't compete in a Championship race? It's not just Henderson horses, it seems like any 2 miler who might stay a bit further is being touted as perfect for the ryanair.

Yes, possibly a good reason for hoping we never have a 20f equivalent of the Ryanair for the hurdlers.

Hard to know from that brief quote what Henderson's intentions for French Opera might be this season. There is a suggestion in the quote that he may still be working the horse out ("never stopped amazing us last season"), and he may also have been trying to get across the point that they have options distance-wise with the horse now he has shown he can get further than the minimum trip in reasonable company.

Given the stable has so many potential candidates for a race like the Ryanair, I would be surprised if they didn't at least test French Opera over two miles against some of the top horses in that division at an early stage in his campaign this season. I share the concern that his jumping might not be fast enough to live with the likes of Tataniano and Big Zeb, but no point being too definitive about that at this stage as the horse is still comparatively unexposed (or, at least, he can still fairly be described as progressive).

A good point aka (and I agree with Please.....), unfortunately the 2m trial races are generally run away from Chelt - in particular Sandown and Kempton. I don't think either would really suit the horse who has shown a real liking for Chelt: I hope they don't send him to those tighter tracks where his jumping could be found out.

And as for the Ryanair (which is what Henderson was presumably alluding to) being an alternative due to the "less pressure put on his jumping" how much faster to the top horses travel over 2m as compared to 21 furlongs - and they jump a few more obstacles.

With the new siting of the second last on the old course, this might suit FO even more.

Must be targeted at the Queen Mother. NH has Mad Max and possibly Long Run for the Ryanair.

Queen Mother could be wide open this year - will Master Minded regain previous form, Tataniano needs good ground, Sizing Europe may go up in trip etc.

NH only option at the moment, and with him having such a strong say in the other top races, he needs a candidate for this race.

Banged on about this before but i don't understand long run for the ryanair either, and the fact hes favourite bamboozles me.
Won over 3 miles - could potentially compete in gold cup, won over 2 miles - could potentially WIN the queen mother, never run over 2 and a half (to my knowledge) - what logic makes him favourite for the ryanair? Digress anyway, not trying to turn this into a ryanair bashing thread. I hope they keep French Opera over 2 miles as imo its a weak division. The ryanair is more likely to be contested by the 3 milers dropping back than the 2 milers stepping up. imo.

I agree with those who like the horse but are worried his jumping will prevent him from winning a QM.

To say that Cheltenham form is as important as fluent jumping might not be that far wide of the mark, but if you find a couple with both attributes in their arsenal they are way in front. There is probably not a single race in the jumping calendar that puts such an emphasis on jumping - to say it's not a concern is nonsense! I think the fact that Moscow Flyer, Well Chief and Kauto Star have all fallen in the race proves the point rather than anything else. Flagship Uberalles would not have won an above-average QM jumping the way he did.

Taking a chance on horse that don't jump fluently is a trait I feel I am finally beginning to shed. It was a hard lesson to learn - I still got sucked into backing Bensalem last year - but it is a critical one. Jumping is ultra-important and even more so at the Festival.

I think all points and questions re his jumping are valid but at big prices, I think he's one to back as he's almost certain to turn up and the race might be very open on the day.