Supreme Novice Hurdle

Prospect Wells will need softer ground mate, Cue Card is a cert for the Supreme isn't he? if I was backing ante-post I'd need a good reason now not to back it.

Workforce??

Ever hear of a horse called Dunguib?

and cousin vinny

Foolish to say anything is a 'cert' 6 months in advance, but Cue Card is a georgous horse and would love him to do it for the Tizzard's

Have re-watched the festival bumper over a dozen times & still get amazed at how easily he won, pulling away up the hill but looking very immature

Form was franked at both Aintree & Punchestowns and whilst I haven’t got hugely involved AP yet (want to see him jump & worry he may go over a longer distance), this time last year Dunguib was 3/1 but to my mind CC was equally as impressive yet is 10/1...

Exactly that Perpetual, doesn't Cue Card have a more traditional N.H Pedigree?
Yes the same was said about Dunguib, but Cue Card is a better price. 

I still maintain a proper jockey would have won on Dunguib, I was down by the last hurdle and could see from a fair way out it was going to meet it on the wrong stride having been taken too wide round the final bend.

Put it this way, if Mcmanus bought Cue Card the price would shorten dramatically, I just don;t at this stage see anything with better credentials.

yes he does and think his mum ran in the National or something

Can't see the owners selling as they're obviously worth a few quid and horses like this just don't come a long very often

10/1 is fair and for me, just a small investment means I've got a involvement with him & plan to get plenty of enjoyment following him over the winter, whether he makes it to the Supreme or not

I agree exactly. I've just watched the race again and from the back of the last he seemed like he might turn out to be a stayer. I'm therefore trying to think of a prestigious enough race over further to discourage connections from going for the Supreme but can't think of one?
Hopefully this thread can continue all year and we can pat ourselves on the back come March time.

Stayer? CAM. He went like **** off a stick over 1m6f and Tizz couldn't pull him up. Do we go with our eyes or what the horse's mother did? Please do the latter and that way we'll get a good price just like at Cheltenham.

I believe they have stated Cue Card start off over 2m4f - which just muddys the water regarding which novice race he is likely to contest at Cheltenham.
The two novices I'm looking forward to with an eye on the Supreme are Age Benefit and Tavern Times. No idea what happened to the latter when favourite for the big bumper at Punchestown but I was all over him for the Cheltenham umper and other than the winner he was the horse to take out of the race.

Do u remember where thar was quoted Uncle ?

I would wait until a) you know Cue Card is entered. b) he is still sound after his first run over hurdles and c) you know what else is running. At this stage any number of 110 rated flat horse could run over hurdles.

I'd go along with that sageform. Much as I agree with most here that Cue Card has immense potential, to take 10/1 about a race in 6 months time that he may not even compete in is a bit speculative - especially as if he lines up on the day then you will most likely be able to get 3/1+ in the week before the race and even more if one or two others with potential line up against him.

^^^^ thats why they want the 10-1 now

I really fancy Munsef for this, rated about 105 on the flat now, started the season rated 112.

Trainer keeps sticking him up in trip, has Baddam and Just Rob who have both run at the festival after a flat season, had a long timme off on the flat.  No inside info but just fancy it for a run at the festival if they can get the horse to transform any form.

If i can find a price i will have a crack at it.

rtb1 - there's a Luke Harvey interview with Colin Tizzard on the 'video news & info' section of the ATR website. 

From memory, isn't the Supreme normally won by NH horses who've progreesed via bumpers and not high class flat recruits??

From memory I think only one cheltenham bumper winner has won the supreme, so stats wise it seems quite a long shot that Cue Card will win it, but it has been done.

Howdi: you may laugh, but why tie-up your stake money for 6 months for a race that the horse might not run in, and even then may not win. There is an awful lot of difference between winning a bumper and winning a hurdle- and one of the most competitive hurdles of the season at that.
I'd give odds of 5/1 about the horse actually lining-up for the race, never mind winning.
Can I expect your cheque?

^^^ im not daft mate i know what you mean -

Wayward, Howdi, we're all on the same page. Backing impressive bumper winners before they jump a hurdle always proves to be daft.

Once in a while it will be the right thing to back now, but if I was wanting to get involved, I would wait until it runs in a hurdle. it might shorten to 8/1 if it won by 20 lengths but at least you would then get 2 of the unknowns out of the way. 1) It is still sound and 2) It can jump hurdles. I would also try to get a price against it winning any race at the festival rather than going for one of 4 or 5 it might run in.

I think it's just best to avoid bumper winners until at least close to the day. No matter how they do over hurdles their bumper win always makes them shorter than they should be based on their hurdles form.

was considering opening my account with small stakes on Hidden Universe

Wicketd
When: 16 Aug 10 23:16
We all know Montelado won the SN after winning the bumper. Only one to have done so. Others that went for it:

Whither or witch - 5th in the SN 3 years after bumper win.
Cork All Star - 7th in the SN the year after bumper win
Cousin Vinny - 5th in SN year after bumper win
Dunguib - 3rd in SN year after bumper win

Others to note are Monsignor and Pizzaro who went for the SA novices hurdles finishing first and second respectively.

So only five in total have gone for it, wth one win and one placing.

How many Supreme winners ran in the previous years Bumper?

hindsight is a wonderful thing, but those results show which race Dunguib should have been aimed at. Plz step him up in trip!

Zaidpour will start favourite for the SN

im not sure but not all that many id say. often top class bumper horses can fully translate their form over hurdles

Over the last 8 years 6 of the 8 winners came from Bumpers,only one Back to Front(2003) ran in the Cheltenham bumper coming 3rd. a further 8 placed horses came from bumpers including two from the cheltenham bumper. 2 Winners(Ebaziyan in 2007 and Arcalis 2005) cam e from the flat and 7 placed horse from the flat.French horses had two placed and one horse came from PTPoint (War of Attrition).
It seems that the most likely route to finding the winner is a minor bumper winner.

I bet of the the 5 winners who ran in bumpers, I'd say they ran in no more than 3 and mostly 2 bumpers.

fecking beast this Cue Card imo but no guarantee about jumping but surprised 10-1 about Ill say it again if he was Nicholls you wouldnt be seeing 10s

and hopefully we get to see him jump a hurdle this month...

he isnt going for the supreme though is he? Ballymore the target as I understand it and is starting out over 2 and half miles?

This is the time of year when the dreams are put to the test and the candidates for March are put to their first novice hurdles. I have an interest in Recession Proof today in the first at Carlisle and will be there to see if the dream is burst or can still be dreamt for a little longer.

Wont go for Supreme but Hobb's Dunraven Storm beaten 27l by Cue Card in the Chelts bumper looked a good recruit to hurdling at Exeter yesterday.

I really like Spanish Treasure's debut bumper win at Puchestown. The horse won in a 5 second quicker time than the Champion Bumper. I've e-mailed Willy Hill's for a price, but they haven't been back in touch.

nice one pmt - enjoy

nicky henderson now trains ACCORDINGTOJODIE won a bumper at galway for thomas mullins

Prince Of Pirates - Starts fav & wins for ap/jp/nh

^ The above two horses (along with Zaidpour) are the early wons on my radar for this.

Exciting prospects fo'sho.

Colin Tizzard's Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Cue Card will bypass a potential engagement at Kempton this weekend.

Tizzard is relaxed about possible running plans for his unbeaten four-year-old, but quick ground in Sunbury has placed the williamhill.com - Bingo "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle out of the question.

The handler said: "He won't go to Kempton as the ground will be too quick. He's too nice a horse to take any risks with, but he's ready to go. He's not a great big horse but he's a lovely type. He's done a good bit of schooling and he jumps like a cat."

He added: "He has plenty enough pace for two miles but to win a bumper you're usually a stayer and we can go for two-and-a-half-mile races as well.

"There's a novice hurdle at nearly every meeting so there's no hurry and we'll wait for the rain.

"There's quite a nice race at Wincanton in a fortnight's time, so we might look at that."