Festival antepost investments to avoid

i wouldnt call merdemit one paced.. a la supreme 2nd... but i like your thinking... WALKON, RONALDO DES MOTTES?

How many horses not rated 140+ over hurdles have won the Arkle in the last 15/20 years? Off the top of my head, I can't think of any. The Arkle tends to be won by a classy type who has demonstrated said class over the smaller obstacles, preferably at the Festival. For this reason Celestial Halo and Medermit should not be dismissed at this stage and if proving a liking for jumping fences should be under consideration come March.

When I say 'wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles' I mean he doesnt need to be top class. The race is ultimately about cruising then kicking, prospective Queen Mother horses being able to travel off a quick pace then going hell for leather when the taps are turned. Celestial Halo and Medermit dont strike me as being this type of horse albeit being Champion Hurdle class over hurdles.

Very early to be saying this as they might both take to the bigger obstacles perfectly. For what it's worth, I agree with eric at this stage. The only reservation I would have is that by and large the Arkle is getting to be more of a stamina test than it used to be - you certainly need to travel and quicken but the ground is never quick on the Tuesday and the trip takes plenty of getting. For that reason I would pay Celestial Halo plenty of respect if he did jump well.

Still most of us would love to have a 140+ rated hurdler lining up in the Arkle. As it goes, the highest rated Arkle winning hurdler of recent years was MWDS, who had previously won a stayers. I think class and stamina are both important, outright blinding speed less so. Am not CHs biggest fan by any means, but if he takes to jumping he has the right profile. My own hope is that MDH is aimed at the race.

My Way, Tidal Bay & Forpadydeplasterer were all the highest rated hurdlers in their Arkle fields from memory.

Is that after the Champion Hurdle converts dropped out?

The layers must love these types of horses ... I would if I had the negative psyche of one.

Next the Gold Cup ... unless there are key fallers (a stronbg possibilty with Kauto on yielding ground or good ground with a strong pace taking him out of cruise control) we can rule out Denman. Loves the course but the young ones will be too good otherwise.
Kauto again is levels with the up and comings but only on good fast ground. Anything less he will struggle at this 3m+ staying trip where he has a mixed record. Poor bunch he might do it.

some sh|te being wrote on this thread imo

Gr4eat reasoning ... just what we expect from the average IQ/experience on here.

yeah your reasoning was great too, don't want an exceptional horse over hurdles in the Arkle. My Way De Solzen had just won a World Hurdle, may not have been the best stayers ever but he still won it, Forpadydeplasterer came fourth in a brilliant novice hurdle behing Fiveforthree (top class), Trafford Lad (top class) and Venalmer (would of been top class only for injury). Tidal Bay was beat a nk in his novice hurdle at the festival and then pi$$ed up in the novice hurdle at Aintree and has since won a Cleeve Hurdle when going back hurdling.

Luv it Big Fella. My Way De Solzen does not cover the history of racing how about Baracouda? P1sses over MWDS over hurdles to be fair gave up on him over fences.. different game altogether we are starting afresh .. let your pocket learn that if you want. Incidentally MWDS hardly turned out to be a fantastic Queen Mother horse .. average.

Is Imperial Commander part of this poor bunch??? His Cheltenham form is absolutely top notch

If Weapons Amnesty lines up is he part of this poor bunch???

Would Pandorama also be part of this poor bunch??? and What A Friend and Joncol???

WTF has the Queen Mother got to do with it you lunatic, you where quoting the Arkle and guess what he won it and won it well

I have my own idea of what is a poor bunch .. I didnt specify that.

eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 233 22 Sep 10 21:18   
Luv it Big Fella. My Way De Solzen does not cover the history of racing how about Baracouda? P1sses over MWDS over hurdles to be fair gave up on him over fences.. different game altogether we are starting afresh .. let your pocket learn that if you want. Incidentally MWDS hardly turned out to be a fantastic Queen Mother horse .. average.


don't worry i will, i won a hell of a lot when Forpady won the Arkle

Well Done ... so did I, Flagship, Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, Well Chief (Remittance Man no regrets) .. I wouldnt have taken Forpady as I would have just got lucky like you rather than seeing a great horse before it happened.

Incidentally I thought before the race last years Arkle was average .... I still do. The winner doesnt excite me at all and Somersby well bit one paced to be a Champion always was ... no ?

Lucky go away you clueless guesser. Did you not see him jump beautidully in sh|t ground all his novice season before winning the Arkle??? He won his first chase at Punchestown, then got beat over 2 1/2 at Fairyhouse by Trafford Lad on horrid ground, then got beat by Golden Silver in the Irish Arkle on terrible ground again and then in the Dr PJ Moriarty over 2m 5f put in a magnificant display of jumping but just ran out of gas close home and got nailed by Cooldine. It was blatantly obvious come the festival and better ground and a strong run race he would be in his element. Now if you say backing him was LUCK you are obviously a fool.


And here's a tip for you with the Arkle, most Arkle winners stay further than 2 miles so it pays to look for a horse thats strong and will get further [;)]

lol ... good luck lad.

.. other than the last bit I'll give you that.

and even moreso if you are moving from hurdles ;)

good luck with your project

Luck shouldnt come into it if judgement is right on average.

Anyone liking Mad Max this season ?
Came right back to form last season and IMO would have won the Arkle but for a horror error 2 out, picked up nice compensation at Aintree and I had this one earmarked as a potential top class stayer in the making.
With question marks over the main Gold Cup protagonists I make 60 value

SatelliteFlight     22 Sep 10 21:08 
some sh|te being wrote on this thread imo


Agreed, eric_morris is this years biodiesel. Total clueless muppet that won't shut up.

Satellite spot on about Forpady.

I am pretty sure that Nick Mordin wrote before this years Arkle the the top-rated hurdler in the Arkle is nearly always the winner of the race. Good horses win good races.

This thread started of ok and turned into a joke by half way. For e this sort of chat should be left to the horseracing forum. gl

Yes quite agree this thread is one of those you can't ignore but can have a good whinge about at the same time. Win win really.

Anyway next, Queen Mother ... Masterminded not the horse he was likely to fall into the Denman category. Too many problems however Denman proved a rare exception on that score can't see his stablemate doing the same.

Top rated hurdler in Arkle? What is that now when we are looking to bet antepost rather than the day ... Celestial Halo? Pointless fact if you back antepost

eric_morris: you wrote this in your initial post:-
"You are looking for a young horse who wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles but who has a flair for fencing. In that respect it is always worth taking a look at your horse over the larger obstacles before moving in for a position. Look for a good turn of pace mainly as when they kick 2 out it doesnt matter what they did over hurdles without this kick they are left dead in the water in an Arkle..."

It is near impossible to have an intelligent debate on what could be a worthwhile subject if you, the thread originator, choose to conveniently overlook what you have yourself written.

It is not a pointless fact, as the results of the Arkle have shown that more often than not, the best hurdler (ie. the one with the highest official rating over hurdles, not your own personal opinion) that lines up in the field on the day, is the horse that wins the Arkle.

I usually wait until the day after the PJ Moriarty chase in Ireland in February before having a wager on the Arkle, as by then we know which horses can jump a fence, which ones can't, and which ones that will run in the race - and by looking at those, which had the best ability over hurdles (when hurdling). As such, we have a good idea of which horse will win the race.

You headlined the thread "Festival antepost investments to avoid" and not "Money to throw away on daft antepost wagers before Xmas".

Strewth man the title of the thread uses the word Antepost NOT Day of Race. If you backed the highest rated hurdler in the race now .ie Antepost, you would be on Celestial Halo. I don't personally place my Antepost bets on the day of the race on the highest rated hurdler LEFT in the race at the shortest price possible. Surely you can understand my point? Maybe you ought to guess which will be the highest rated hurdler TO NOT FALL BY THE WAYSIDE in the run up to the race ... Good luck with that project.

However, given that this is ante-post betting and the likelihood of a horse falling by the wayside is priced in, then I don't see how you can possibly suggest that backing a horse like CH, whose stated aim is the Arkle, is a bad investment. If it all goes to plan he'll go off under 3s.
Which were the highest rated hurdlers, aimed (with certainty of intention) at the Arkle, to have fallen by the wayside in recent years? Can't think of any off the top of my head, rather like you couldn't think of too many hurdlers rated under 140 to have won it.

Wayward this clown doesn't even read other peoples posts.

I agree it's best to wait to see how they get on initially over fences and if impressing going with the highly rated hurdlers.

But while you wait to place antepost bets till feb I usually place them in December. Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee, Kalahari King, Tidal Bay all backed before christmas antepost in recent years.

I don't read CVBs posts he follows me around.

Desmond maybe if you want to make a book he could be a bet to lay off after beating camels at Plumpton first time out. If you held it until the race you might not be so lucky with the margins if he makes the race. When I say poor investment I am holding the bet until the race and won't have backed the winner with him so I would need to get the winner in it making my book less efficient than if I had only backed the winner. Stake to profit ratio would be reduced.

Put it this way Azertyuiop 10s and Well Chief 20s just the one bet in the race is efficient.

eric: I'm not trying to be argumentative, but what is the point in making a crystal-ball analysis of the Arkle in September - 6 months before the race? When so many things can go wrong in the period in-between, why bother locking-up useful money in the antepost market? For instance, Tidal Bay was head and shoulders above the rest when he won the race, and I got 9/1 on the day. Forpady had clearly the best form and was also the top-rated hurdler when he won at 9/1. Even last March, such was the head-in-the-sand attitude by the majority who spout their shrewd intelligence on here over the (supposed lack of) ability of Sizing Europe, that I got 10/1 in-running at the top of the hill when the horse was cantering on the bit. I went into that race not having had a bet, but could not believe those odds after the race started.

By all means have an antepost bet if you want to, but keep your mind open to winning opportunities.

Like I said, I ain't the horses biggest fan, for a start I think his way of taking a hurdle will not lend itself to larger obstacles. But your opening gambit was that it didn't matter what they did over hurdles, I hope I've managed to demonstrate that it does and that horses that win the race tend to have CHs class and stamina over hurdles. Would you lay evens that the winner is hurdles rated top class, lets say 150 or above?

so many decent hurdlers going for it this year job to know who is the best

Desmond that was not my opening gambit I even clarified my opening statement and you ignored both making something up instead.

Wayward my biggest wins at the Festival have been struck a month or less after the previous years Festival. Certain races you can leave later and the Arkle is one of them as I said in my opening post.

I still wouldn't be looking to wait until after Christmas. An exception was Well Chief for me who made I think a Feb debut.

eric_morris
Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 248 14 Sep 10 19:45   
Right lets start with the Arkle Chase:

You are looking for a young horse who wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles but who has a flair for fencing. In that respect it is always worth taking a look at your horse over the larger obstacles before moving in for a position. Look for a good turn of pace mainly as when they kick 2 out it doesnt matter what they did over hurdles without this kick they are left dead in the water in an Arkle.

Help me out here, that's what you said, I pretty much quoted you. If you're going now to stress the 'kick' part of the statement, then I think that that was put to bed by MWDS, Tidal Bay and Forpady, three of the last four winners, all stamina laden over hurdles and all of whose best hurdles form came over longer than 2m. I also note that Sizing is to be campaigned over further this year too.

2 Previous Arkle Winners, Moscow Flyer, 2nd in Irish Champion Hurdle, Forpadydeplaster, grade 1 winning hurdler etc.. I would say top class hurdling form is a must for this race, agree with Satellite, some utter **** being bandied about here.

Desmond the first phrase is the important one, the second is a turn of phrase which means it doesn't matter what they did over hurdles they need that kick . Also I clarified doesn't need to be top class over hurdles. Don't purposely quote excerpts out of context.

Two of the greatest Arkle winners of recent years Azertyuiop and Well Chief who battled it out with Moscow Flyer in the golden years were far from top class over hurdles ... some real shote being spouted by others. You don't need to be top class over hurdles I repeat .. For the thickheaded hard of reading numpties on this thread.

And no 2nd in a  Triumph is not top class though the race is getting much higher quality in recent years.

Basically the question is which horses that are prominent in the betting should be avoided.

IMVHO

Medermit doesn't look the type who will totally take to fences and is a touch below top class. He's not the bravest horse when it comes to jumping either and under pressure I could see him becoming a dodgy ride over the big ones. Can't believe they make him favourite for the Arkle.



Menorah will think he's gone into orbit if he even makes the Champion Hurdle. No where near good enough and teribble value at 12-16/1

Master Minded probably his win over the very moderate, by QMCC standards, VPU fooled everyone into thinking he was much better than he actually was. Can't see what ails this horse disappearing but with horses Like Capatain Cee Bee around it's a brand new ball game and I can't see him winning another QMCC.

Big Bucks 12/1 for the Gold Cup. There's no way until after the King George will PN make a decision about Kuato Star's future but if he continues in training there's no way they will run both in the Gold Cup when the World Hurdle is there for the taking and a 3rd win that will put the horse in the history books.

That apart the time frame would only allow PN anough time to give Big Bucks one run before Cheltenham and one mistake during his prep race could see them switching straight back to the World Hurdle PN still has Denman and What A Friend to cover Kuato is neeed be.

You need a huge leap in faith and alot of luck on your side to back Big Bucks at this stage.

Cue Card was the impressive winner of the Ch. Bumper but that doesn't mean he'll automatically make the grade over hurdles. He doesn't have the star quality of Dunguib and we all know where he ended up. There will be a lot better and speedoer hurdlers around by the time Cheltenham is upon us and Cue Card at 10/1 is probably the worst AP bet of the festival.

Agree VPU 3rd class compared to predecessors never got the hype on here it was obvious he was not up there with the classy winners of the race. Big Bucks goes without saying but you will still get idiots on here ruining threads as they have 2 quid at 1000 or whatever for the Gold Cup hoping to 'persuade' connections to switch him ... Bores to a man.

I had a thread on here pre Festival last season re the appalling record of bumper winners in subsequent novice hurdles and was given short shrift from Dunguib groupies. Worth avoiding bumper winners in them regardless of what happens this season. Putting hurdles in the way makes a massive difference to their chances.

It is a sure sign of antepost cluelessness of posters on here hyping bumper winners in the Festival novice hurdles. They can't be checking stats further than the end of their noses.

Hi guys, CAPTAIN CHRIS for the arkle. Kept away from the big festivals as a novice hurdler while he matured and gained experience. Unbeaten as a hurdle, rounding off the season with a comfortable success at cheltenham in the spring beating animals rated 135+. Has speed, strength and the stamina to stay further which is needed in the arkle. Has the physique and the scope to become a top class chaser,and should be an exciting season for his followers. My advice is to have a medium sized wager now before he makes his chasing debut, and if he puts in a striking performance first time out as expected, go in again before he becomes a single figure price. Generally, a 16/1 chance with most firms at this moment!

GOLD CUP!  IMPERIAL COMMANDER is maximum wager material to defend his crown. Brushed aside a rejuvanated Denman, with Kauto Star already cooked at the time of his crashing fall. The 3 of them are head and shoulders above anything else on all known form and Imperial is clearly the superior, especially around his beloved Cheltenham. Still relatively lightly raced so the poor stats of 10 yr old winners don't worry me and it will take a monumental performance to lower his colours come next march.
Of the up and coming young pretenders, Noel Meade's PANDORAMA is the one most likely to bridge the gap to make a strong challenge for the blue ribband. However, Good to soft or softer will enhance his chances massively.

"with Kauto Star already cooked at the time of his crashing fall."

Totally overlooking the mistake early in the race which was what cost him any chance. IC has yet to prove his superiority over Kauto so it would be dangerous to go max wager on IC for the Gold Cup. The only form line IC has from his Gold Cup win was Denman who was beaten in all 3 runs in 2010 and really looks a spent force.

That's excluding the new younger horses coming along. All in all IC is a horrible antepost bet at current odds. As is Kauto.

antepost investmens to avoid=any mullins horses,any coming back from injury,anything without a clearly defined target...thats my view for what its worth.

Mullins always makes you think he hasn't made up his mind where his horses will run but I've never been caught out yet. You can always tell where the horses are aimed, just read his stable tour, watch how the horses are campaigned and then you know.

i tried that last year cv as was mad keen on quel esprit for the 3  mile novice hurdle which he did end up in after a early fall in the 2m 4f race 2 days earlier,i could be wrong but i think he was hinting at the 3 miler for most of the season then made the switch close to the festival hence my comment regarding his runners...and the whole mikeal will he/wont he all season got right up my nose tbh.

I'm a HUGE Quel Esprit fan and not once did I think Quel Esprit would go for the 3 miler. I backed him in every race he ran last year and backed him for the Neptune before Christmas and never worried. Why because he was campaigned over less than 3m in Ireland. While in Mullins stable tour he said Quel Esprit would be campaigned over 2m4-2m6f.

well i thought of his 3 runs in ireland the most impressive was over 3 miles hence my thinking that would be the race for him.
hope he takes to fences this year also :)

Oh and Mikael was always going for the Arkle and not RSA. He still will

Just about agree with the Master Minded call, primarily on price - the current odds look plenty short enough for what the horse showed last season. In terms of engine size and speed between the fences, Big Zeb to me has always looked at least the equal of Master Minded. It would be a concern whether Big Zeb could produce such a good round of jumping again if making it to the QM this season, but even so I would still take him as the favourite for the race at this early stage.

It would be a slight concern in opposing Master Minded that the potential opposition at this stage is looking a bit thin on the ground, with Sizing Europe and Forpadydeplasterer looking set to step up in distance. The Captain is a lovely horse, but doesn't appeal to me for the QM and jury out at present on whether Cheltenham would be the right track for Tataniano and the underestimated Golden Silver. At risk of missing the price, I might want to hold off a while before fielding against Master Minded heavily in the QM market i.e. just to see how the likely opposition is shaping up.

For the Champion Hurdle, I think I can see a few who may make for good trading opportunities during the season, as opposed to being outright lays at this stage. If Peddlers Cross is aimed at the race, it could make the dynamics of the market over the season even more interesting.

I wouldn't have a fixed view at this stage about opposing Menorah, particularly as the current price on here isn't especially short for a SN winner moving into his first season in open company. There are some things I thought I saw in Menorah's runs before the SN last season that make me a little wary of the horse. At the same time, though, I also had the impression that (rather like Go Native the previous season), he may have won the SN a little more easily than it appeared. I can see there being an overreaction against Menorah if he flops in his first serious test this season, or likewise if he wins well current layers in the CH market will be caught on the back foot and the price could collapse to a level where the odds are far too short (as happened to some extent with the price on Go Native last season). Both scenarios would create good opportunities to build a position, in one direction or the other, around the horse.

Menorah is not necessarily the type that is always going to shine in small field races, particularly on softer ground; if he flops in one of those before Cheltenham, and his price for the CH goes out sufficiently in response, he may be worth backing, if only on the basis that he is likely to travel well in the CH on decent ground and thereby create an opportunity to lay back the ante-post bet in running, if desired.

At the same time, if the price on Menorah for the CH collapses to very low odds during the season, I would  have enough reservations about the horse to want to take him on at that type of price. My reservations would be not so much about his class (I have an open mind on that at this stage), but more to do with the style of running that seems to suit him, getting him delivered at the right point and, to a lesser extent perhaps, possibly issues of settling or temperament.

I think that 2nd in a championship race at Cheltenham suggests that Well Chief was fairly decent over hurdles Eric...... FWIW Azertyioup was the highest rated hurdler in the field the year that he won the Arkle and an OR of 155 for hurdles would have had him on the premises for a minor placing in your average champion hurdle, which when we're discussing the merits of the 2 two horses you've disregarded is pertinent.
PS I love your comment, They can't be checking stats further than the end of their noses.
[;)]

You've hit the nail on the head Desmond. I've no problems with people having a favourite horse, but just cos he's your fav doesn't make it a world-beater. Some thread contributors refuse to enter into debate and expect all and sundry to agree with every word they spout - how boring! Much of horse-racing selection is down to opinion, which is based on your own personal observation and interpretation of the form. So, of course there are going to be variables of opinion - other wise every race would have a 1/20 favourite and the rest would be at 16's or longer.
An opinion, based on personal observation and interpretation of the form, is not a statistical exercise, despite some contributors trying to brow-beat the writer into accepting that it is.
I've been following horseracing since the late-1960's and I gave up having any meaningfull wagers on the antepost market a long time ago. The risks compared to the rewards are just not viable to make the exercise worthwhile.

Desmond I couldnt have been clearer in spelling it out to you. I answered all your points earlier in the thread go back and read them.

Wayward has it occured to you that you arent cut out for antepost as with that much time watching racing you should have learned when to step in by now? It doesnt suit everyone and some are more suited to backing closer to the time. I personally dont think you can win that way without inside knowledge of some kind or an edge with a bot on here there are too many with these taking your money. Antepost takes balls and not many of those with inside info have them they are used to easier game with a quicker return.

You should take an odd position to smaller amounts antepost and develop a 'feel' for it which will trigger a gut feel when you see something happen and compare it to previous years, read connections announcements learn who is most and least likely to be giving it straight, weigh things up. Good luck.

No you haven't Eric. You seem unable to acknowledge that highly rated hurdlers consistently win the Arkle, nor provide evidence to the contrary or admit that 'grinders' like CH have strong recent record, indeed the last 4 winners could conceivably be described as such. However, I've come to the conclusion that you're unlikely to concede that your opening post was ill-advised, so I'll leave you to your misconceptions.

Wasn't necessarily exceptional over hurdles ... Doesn't need to be top class. That is what I said, yet again you are trying to misquote me. In my opinion neither Azertyuiop nor Well Chief were exceptional or top class over hurdles. ..end of. They were however exceptional and top class over fences. Don't try to put any more words in my mouth You are either being thick or disingenuous and neither trait is exceptional or top class.

They are in the main very decent hurdlers but they don't have to be exceptional or top class over hurdles to win the Arkle. I have won tens of thousands on the Arkle over the years it is one of my best races, you use your opinions to form your bets and I will use mine.

Forgot to add I already have a horse in mind for this seasons Arkle that fits the profile I like. As mentioned in my opening post I won't be betting until I see a fence jumped.

Desmond ... Tell me now what will be the top rated hurdler in the race on the day and also tell me how much you have had on it antepost already. If you can't then stfu. 

You see it is irrelevant if you bet antepost as you don't know which horse will be the top rated hurdler on the day NOW to have an ANTEPOST bet on it.

And the 'grinder' point?

Progress I suppose, a grudging acceptance that hurdling is relevant. I agree that they don't have to be exceptional over hurdles, but couldn't tell you how many exceptional hurdlers have gone for the race, I can't think of any as highly rated as CH recently. I'll use my judgement to decide that being exceptional over hurdles shouldn't be a hinderance, given that the best hurdler in the race tends to fair quite well.

Though, of course, you have already effectively ended the discussion by telling me how much you've previously won on the race........zzzzzzzzz........

FFS I don't accept anything other than what I actually said.

What will be the top rated hurdler on the day then? How much have you had on it already?

Oh boy! Where is the 'hubris smiley' when you need it?

You started a thread, in a monumentally arrogant style I might add, that made a few basic points with regard to finding the winner of the Arkle. The points you made were, in the main, wrong. I merely pointed that out. I've already stated that I'm not too keen on CH as I'm not convinced he'll jump well enough, given his hurdling style. However, if he does take to it, then barring injury he will be in the line up as connections have stated that the race will be his target.
BTW, you don't have to bet 6 months ahead of the event for it to be classed antepost.

My points were not wrong. My points were right and your points were irrelevant on an antepost thread. You proved them irrelevant as you haven't answered the question I have now posed at least twice.

I am not arrogant at all in correcting somebody who constantly tries to either misquote me or quote me out of context. If you don't like strong views antepost don't read them.

You come across as a pompous disingenuous poster tbh who knows little about antepost but more about day of race facts if I might add.

Don't really fancy Punjabi for the race but could see him becoming an ok chaser. Line through him also as the winne for me. He can travel without having to get too busy to take an interest in the race which is a plus.

In the Arkle i'd be looking for something that was;

1. High class over hurdles - Solid Graded class performer - Been there thereabouts in Grade 1/2s over hurdles.

2. Stays a bit further - Have form over further than 2 miles.

3. Aged 7 or 8

4. Have some course form - festival form being an even bigger plus

5. Not be a British flat horse - however those who have ran on the level in Europe have come close to winning in recent year - Eg, Kalahri King and Osana.

If you stick along those lines you won't be far off in March. My selection at this point (which trading in mind) would be Muirhead at 40-1+

for the arkle, my early fancy is finians rainbow...loved the way he travelled in that race...cruised through as well as anything else for the most part, couldn't finish it off...but back to 2 miles and fences could be interesting.

the way he travelled in the neptune that is

not as good as reve de sivola

Disingenuous! That's a hoot! You started a thread that suggested staying away from CH on the grounds that he was exceptional over hurdles and a grinder. The latter attribute can be found in your typical winner, who is usually also a classy hurdler. Either you've done no research or you're trying to put the uninitiated away. I hope the former.

If your post had looked a little more like extreme convictions, I'd take you seriously, as it is.......

In answer to your question, I tend not to get involved in the Arkle until around Xmas, as running plans of the principals are not always transparent and like you, I like to see them jump a fence. Decent prices could be had about recent winners at that time. As it is, my long range fancy would be MDH, but given connections and his recent injury, he is not a proposition antepost, nor would I be keen to take him on. So it may well be that I don't get involved until the day of the race.

best lay ever is sang bleu for whatever he runs in. nicholls talks him up to be the pest thimg since bacon and cabbage but it wouldnt be the first time he did. i dont think hes as good as hes made out to be and he certainly never showed any signs of class last year

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Cabbage.

CVByrne Joined: 14 Mar 06
Replies: 627 22 Sep 10 23:00 
SatelliteFlight     22 Sep 10 21:08
some sh|te being wrote on this thread imo


Agreed, eric_morris is this years biodiesel. Total clueless muppet that won't shut up.

CVByrne - I can't believe you've only just twigged (thanks to my post in the aftertimimg thread) that Eric Morris is the new identity of Kirk-St Moritz - who can forget the inordinately long and insightful threads on Zaynar and Steinbeck

PS. I bet he says something about my bets on the Cheltenham Going

I'm a jumps only man so have been away since early may so missed the whole summer name change. Though it makes perfect sense now that he's been unmasked.

Lads not quoting Celestial Storm for the Arkle after his introduction today ... that 10/1 original general quote across all bookies looking really really dire now. If he does stay over fences a big big chance he would go for the new 2m4f novice chase instead. First post on thread below.

Right lets start with the Arkle Chase:

You are looking for a young horse who wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles but who has a flair for fencing. In that respect it is always worth taking a look at your horse over the larger obstacles before moving in for a position. Look for a good turn of pace mainly as when they kick 2 out it doesnt matter what they did over hurdles without this kick they are left dead in the water in an Arkle.

That makes an early investment in the one-paced Celestial Halo and Medermit very poor value at 10/1. Particularly in the case of Celestial Halo he wont be able to grind it over fences as he did over hurdles you ideally want a horse who can cruise in behind then go for it late.

no surprised i give Celestial Storm absolutely no chance in the Arkle

I would appreciate if Desmond apologises for his aggressive stance earlier in this thread ...

Desmond Orchard     23 Sep 10 16:18  
However, given that this is ante-post betting and the likelihood of a horse falling by the wayside is priced in, then I don't see how you can possibly suggest that backing a horse like CH, whose stated aim is the Arkle, is a bad investment. If it all goes to plan he'll go off under 3s.
Which were the highest rated hurdlers, aimed (with certainty of intention) at the Arkle, to have fallen by the wayside in recent years? Can't think of any off the top of my head, rather like you couldn't think of too many hurdlers rated under 140 to have won it.

and you lad you gobsh1te ...

SatelliteFlight     22 Sep 10 21:08  
some sh|te being wrote on this thread imo

Oh and uncle puncle ... this thread is for people who bet, not for purely arbers like youself so you are probably best giving it a miss. It wont be safe enough for you it may take big cahhonas as well as antepost knowledge.

Oi oi ... Medermit now 16s after refusing this week. Celestial Halo may shorten from 16s but 10s was not a good initial investment not having seen him jump a fence as nothing has shown flair to get a grip of the market yet.

Also after todays run Long Run is a poor investment for the Ryanair. He doesnt look to have enough finishing pace at the very top level though he travels really well and jumped very well today .. no excuses.

Right lets start with the Arkle Chase:

You are looking for a young horse who wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles but who has a flair for fencing. In that respect it is always worth taking a look at your horse over the larger obstacles before moving in for a position. Look for a good turn of pace mainly as when they kick 2 out it doesnt matter what they did over hurdles without this kick they are left dead in the water in an Arkle.

That makes an early investment in the one-paced Celestial Halo and Medermit very poor value at 10/1. Particularly in the case of Celestial Halo he wont be able to grind it over fences as he did over hurdles you ideally want a horse who can cruise in behind then go for it late.

RSA Chase:

Will the best horse in this race turn up ... or Willie Wontie turn up? Enough said.

Ghizao rating over hurdles please? Now fav for the Arkle over stablemate and Champion Hurdle placed horse Celestial Halo.

Desmond's Orchard now out of apples.

Celestial Halo thehighest rated hurdler in the Arkle completely tupped by 2 outsiders there and more jumping mistakes. Never had the pace for 2 miles. He should go back over staying hurdles imo which he would be more suited to than Zaynar. If they keep him chasing he has to go 2m 4f as he doesnt travel well enough or jump well enough for a breakneck Arkle.

Nicholls has confirmed Celestial is going back over hurdles between 2m 4f and 3m. Best decision, hope I savec people a few quid on here for the Arkle those who took my advice.

Cant remember ever backing a horse for the Arkle based on its Hurdles rating,and probably never will.Usually wait till a horse has jumped a fence before playing,although i did make an exception last week after listening to BG talking up Finians Rainbow,and quiet glad i did.