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Forty
09 Sep 10 16:07
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 5,597 | Blogger: Forty's blog
I like the look Of Khyber Kim - ground was faster than usual last year (2010).

also keen on Sanctuaire if it settles.

Comments please

Forty
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Report kauto_kauto September 9, 2010 4:10 PM BST
Sanctuaire if he runs well in the greatwood hurdle
Solwhit he obviously didnt run his race at cheltenham and is the value at the moment.
Report aka September 9, 2010 4:37 PM BST
Solwhit certainly interesting, Kauto_Kauto. Has there been any announcement about whether the intention is stay over hurdles for the coming season with Solwhit?

Also, what do we think about Soldatino? Very early days yet for this one and some suggestion he may come into his own over further than 2 miles in time. Pretty impressive start to his hurdling career though.
Report stormey1 September 9, 2010 4:40 PM BST
Im a big fan of Peddlers Cross and hope he turns out to be a big contender but stating the obvious if the real Binocular turns up will be hard to beat.
Report kauto_kauto September 9, 2010 5:04 PM BST
aka Joined: 06 Nov 03
Replies: 33 09 Sep 10 16:37 
Solwhit certainly interesting, Kauto_Kauto. Has there been any announcement about whether the intention is stay over hurdles for the coming season with Solwhit?

from what iv heard and been listening to connections are aiming the same route as last year and if his winning them races again then it will be cheltenham if he doesnt have the pace there going to up him up to 2m 4furlongs.
Report dananders September 9, 2010 5:06 PM BST
hurricane fly wins if fit imo
Report Masterminded September 9, 2010 5:24 PM BST
can't see much touching binocular. peddlers cross the danger
Report thegalwayman September 9, 2010 5:43 PM BST
Go Native for me.
Report downallstar September 9, 2010 6:39 PM BST
Peddlers Cross
Report Orsoncart September 9, 2010 7:29 PM BST
Peddlers Cross aswell
Report Leonardo September 9, 2010 7:34 PM BST
the mighty Peddlers Cross for me too
Report Mandeville Anne Lover September 9, 2010 8:26 PM BST
Would love to see Walkon back in action. Think he could be a dark horse in the champion hurdle but dont know whats happened after last seasons injury. Know the owner comes on here sometimes so has anyone heard anything regarding the horse?

If he ran I think he might be interesting Happy
Report BJG September 9, 2010 9:02 PM BST
Go Native/Sanctuaire my 2 early fancies at the prices
Report nijinski70 September 9, 2010 9:04 PM BST
oscar whiskey e/w at 50's????????
Report kauto_kauto September 9, 2010 9:42 PM BST
Mandeville Anne Lover Joined: 21 Dec 05
Replies: 603 09 Sep 10 20:26 
Would love to see Walkon back in action. Think he could be a dark horse in the champion hurdle but dont know whats happened after last seasons injury. Know the owner comes on here sometimes so has anyone heard anything regarding the horse?

He will be campaigned with the Champion Hurdle in mind.

Depending on how well he goes in his first couple of races this season, he may go novice chasing, before Cheltenham.

All will depend on how well he runs on his first racecourse re-appearance.

this is what i have been told anyways i hope it help.
Report bigben September 9, 2010 9:47 PM BST
Peddlers CrossLove
Report RyanWe September 9, 2010 10:54 PM BST
I've no idea who I'd back now if the race was tomorrow. Bit surprised by the Peddlers Cross majority so far, but I think at the prices I'd be playing him too.

We still don't know how good he is and horses like this are usually priced on perceived potential - but I think the market is underestimating him on this occasion. However, maybe there are slight doubts about what path he is taking.
Report aka September 9, 2010 11:31 PM BST
A lot to look forward to with the horses already mentioned on here, and there are some other exciting ones that possibly will also come into contention, not least Menorah, Get Me Out of Here if staying over hurdles, and General Miller if an undulating track would suit. Blackstairmountain and Mille Chief are ones I would want to keep an eye on too.

Binocular obviously very impressive in the CH last season, and with Khyber Kim fairly well beaten into second it gave the form of the race some credence (KK arguably had the best seasonal form over two miles going into the race and seemed to run to a level at least consistent with his win in the International earlier in the season). Binocular was so impressive though it just made me think he may be even more dependent on dry ground  than possibly seemed the case before the race. We knew beforehand that he would be better on good ground, but how much better wasn't so easy to gauge.

We know now what a force Binocular can be off a brisk pace on a stiff track if the ground doesn't dent his speed (his tactical speed, most importantly). He had the speed on the ground in the CH last season to hold an excellent position through the race, close enough to the pace set by Celestial Halo to easily move strongly into contention in the final stages. On the ground, it wasn't so easy for horses to come from further back in the field and close on those at the front effectively in the final stages. It is the tactical speed in particular that I would say makes Binocular such a dangerous horse in the CH on good ground. But if the ground is such a key factor with him (and I appreciate you could argue against that view), then I would possibly be looking to field against him at the current low odds around 3/1.

If there is one who might prove to be as effective as Binocular was under the prevailing conditions last March, I would be especially interested in how Menorah progresses this season, if and when meeting the right conditions for the horse. With cut in the ground though, I would  want to have Solwhit on side, among one or two others that catch the eye at this stage(thanks for the reply on Solwhit, Kauto_Kauto).
Report McK30wn September 10, 2010 11:13 AM BST
At the prices Go Native just because he hit the 2nd hurdle in the CH and the race was over, he had the best form before the race so if you draw a line through his run in the CH his current price of 25's is pretty big considering he went of 10/3 fav in march (ive bet to lay).

That said am on binocular from gold cup day of the last meeting just the fact that i dont rate the novice bunch from last year, (exception being Peddlers cross and he may well go chasing depending on his run in the fighting fifth), and binocular won the race cosily and a horse superior to his group wins cosily in championship races ie Quvega and Big Bucks
Report aka September 10, 2010 11:57 AM BST
I was struck by the similarity between the way Go Native won his Supreme and Menorah's run in last season's renewal of the race. Both travelled sweetly on the inside rail in their respective races, quickened impressively to make up ground from three out, hitting the front a little sooner than perhaps they wanted, ran on well to the line, but only just able to hold on to win (and some suggestion it may even have been a bit too easy for them). Both clearly very classy horses, but also the same question raised in each case about whether a fast run two miles on a stiff track in top open company would stretch their stamina too much.

In retrospect, clearly too much had been made before last March about whether Binocular would get up the hill strongly enough to win a CH. On that basis, at this stage I would be inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to Go Native and Menorah that their stamina potentially would stretch to winning a truly run CH. So both seem to me interesting contenders. It would be good though to have some news on the injury Go Native picked up in the CH. Just a worry it might prove more of a setback than originally thought.
Report DIGGER1 September 10, 2010 1:20 PM BST
Think Menorah has the potential to go to the very top if he learns to relax early on in his races.
Report aka September 10, 2010 3:09 PM BST
I think the cover and pace of the bigger field in the Supreme probably helped Menorah settle better on that occasion, though he still also looked plenty green enough. I could certainly see him being turned over in some of the smaller field races this season, if the pace is muddling or the problem of settling still affects him. Of course, that might help create a nice price for him in relation to the festival races later in the season.
Report Wicketd September 10, 2010 3:49 PM BST
Don't think Go Native stands a chance in any CH unless it's a ridiculously slowly run event, which it won't be. He beat Bino and Solwhit in a race you can draw a line through and Starluck and Bino in a race Bino clearly didn't turn up in. Almost got collared by Starluck which says it all. Got thrashed by VLV and Hurricane Fly. Completely drops out when things don't go his way. Will likely mop up a couple of races on the bridle but wouldn't back him at Cheltenham. Don't think it was a great Supreme he won either.
Report Far From Trouble September 10, 2010 5:39 PM BST
Peddler's Cross Love
Report Howdi September 10, 2010 6:32 PM BST
I can only see one horse mugging Binocular this year (novices not up to much for me) and the horse am thinking of spends half his seaon in a wheelchair in iRELAND.
Report Howdi September 10, 2010 6:33 PM BST
If Menorah wins a champion I'll carry John Mcruick on my back naked through Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea September 10, 2010 8:09 PM BST
At this early stage i would say Binocular will beat any from last year and i dont see Menorah or GMOOH being good enough,although they could improve to be.Only ones i could see stopping him at the moment from winning again are HFly and PCross.
Report Howdi September 10, 2010 8:44 PM BST
am I the only one who thinks Peddlers Cross is not a 2 miler?
Report DIGGER1 September 10, 2010 9:05 PM BST
I agree Howdi think Peddlers Cross will prove to be more of a 2M 4F plus horse,but would love to see you attempt to carry Big Mac!
Report aka September 10, 2010 10:20 PM BST
Yes, some weight carrying performance that. Can't see him getting up the hill, even without his silks on.

Plenty of scope for a bit of filling out with Peddlers Cross and with it he might lose a bit of the speed he would need to be really competitive for hurdles over the minimum trip. Not a bad jumper, but would probably need to be a bit more fluent over his hurdles than at times last season if he is to match the slickness of a horse like Binocular at his best.
Report Howdi September 11, 2010 11:08 PM BST
Laugh
Report buddeliea September 12, 2010 9:26 AM BST
Peddlers cross stays further,dont mean he cant win a champion hurdle.
Report Howdi September 12, 2010 1:13 PM BST
^^^ no but it amkes it more unlikely.
Report Mandeville Anne Lover September 12, 2010 4:02 PM BST
kauto_kauto thanks for that answered my querie perfectly. Happy
Report red and white September 12, 2010 7:38 PM BST
Istabraq dropped back in trip to win his Champion(s)
Report Leonardo September 12, 2010 7:43 PM BST
So the did the admirable Hardy Eustace
Report buddeliea September 13, 2010 6:09 AM BST
Howdi,
i take it you are implying that cos he wins at further he is too slow at 2m? Do you know that for a fact?
I have no problem in backing a horse that wins the neptune in the following CH,and as been mentioned its proved successful before a few times.
In my eyes PC could really be anything,and whilst i dont expect him to beat Binocular or HF,thats not to say he wont!!
Report deakers September 15, 2010 1:12 AM BST
Howdi,
Who's going to be naked? You, him or both?
Report deadloss September 15, 2010 9:50 AM BST
Kauto-Kauto.

Where did you hear that please?
Report Lieutenant Bravado September 15, 2010 9:53 AM BST
Well having backed PC @ 25/1 with VC over the summer I am a happy bunny :)
Report millhouse September 15, 2010 11:24 AM BST
Menorah needs to be held up longer, imo - almost a Sea Pigeon ride.

Was in front too long at both Cheltenham and Liverpool in my opinion, and as Ascot and then Aintree showed, this is the way to get him beat...
Report kauto_kauto September 15, 2010 12:03 PM BST
deadloss Joined: 23 May 03
Replies: 64 15 Sep 10 09:50 
Kauto-Kauto.

Where did you hear that please?

Just from a lad i know that rides out at Kings i know a few lads from certain stables as i have nvq 1 2 3 in work riding and went to riding schools with a few people that are now riding out at big yards.

sorry if you didnt want anything about your horse posted on the forum.
Report R Carver September 15, 2010 2:14 PM BST
millhouse, really disagree with you - i love this horse, but doubt he's quite good enough to win a champion. he was brilliant at warwick and kempton when in front plenty long enough. At liverpool he was surely just over the top against a smart horse. The ascot defeat happened to coincide with the worst ride Johnson has ever given a horse (which may be attributable to the earlier fall on planet of sound).

The horse just wants a strongly run 2 miles. I dont think he wants to be in front too long but only in the same way as many horses ideally dont want to be in front too long, but he doesn't need a sea pigeon ride surely. He was held up and oozed class in his bumper but i dont accept he has to be held up as a necessity. I imagine he'll fall just short of top class in the champion.
Report millhouse September 15, 2010 2:52 PM BST
RC - he nearly lost the Supreme because he was idiling in front, he got beaten at Ascot because he was in front too soon, and at Aintree he was again kicked on too early, and got sucker punched up the long run in.

All of this is in my opinion of course, but I think it might be at least worth a try holding him up for much longer.

In my view this horse has the potential to go all the way, but I don't think he's being ridden to maximise his ability at the moment.

I'm not blaming Johnson, it looks to me that he often can't believe how well he's going on this horse, and understandably he wants to get the job done - but imho I really don't think Menorah is suited to being in front for too long...
Report DIGGER1 September 15, 2010 4:58 PM BST
Agree with you Millhouse think the longer they hold on to Menorah the better he will look also think Bobby Ewing who beat him over 2m 4f at Doncaster will be top class if he's recovered from his injury.
Report McK30wn September 15, 2010 7:05 PM BST
seem your being undermined deadloss lol :D
Report R Carver September 15, 2010 7:10 PM BST
millhouse, to some extent i think you may be right about holding onto him for longer, arguably he was coming to the end of his tether or idling at the festival against the stayer GMOOH (its a while since i watched the race tbf), i am sure he has the class to travel in behind and try and pick off opponents. His bumper run showed he could be held onto, he travels well enough.

However, as i say, i dont think he had a problem kicking early at warwick and kempton and i dont think he has any more of a problem being out in front than most other horses. As you say though, its defo all opinions and i dont pretend to 'know' any more than the next person.

The ascot race was a funny old race. This was (imo) basically a pre festival pipe-opener. Johnson makes it early, the horse pulling fairly hard, then prince buster and sophies trophie get lit up taking each other on gaining a big lead over menorah down teh back. Johnson for some reason panics miles out and chases thornton (prince buster was imo always going to fold after getting lit up). By this time the horse is having a harder race than was intended (it was only intended as a supreme prep imo), he clatters through the last and then gets outstayed by the stayer lush life. I just think that day Johnson gave him a spectacularly bad ride. I dont think he got beat through idling, just possibly getting tired after a bad ride in testing ground when only being run to get ready for the festival.

The Doncaster run was also idiotic - trying to give lumps of weight over too long a trip agaist a proper stayer in Bobby Ewing, he never had any cover and pulled too hard - again, i dont think johnson was inspired on him and i think hobbs made an error running him in the wrong race (distance and trying to give weight).

Imo that would explain those 2 defeats and i believe at aintree he was over the top against a smart horse who was fresh from the early supreme fall. as i say though, its defo all about opinions.

On your main issue, i would love to see him held up. If he runs in something like the greatwood early on, be interesting to see him held up. I dont think that tactic would work against the likes of binocular in the cham,pion though as i dont think he'd be quite good enough to do it in that company, much like KK wasn't in march. Interesting debate though Millhouse!
Report CVByrne September 15, 2010 8:09 PM BST
To be fair Big Bucks, deadloss has always said on here they would keep him over hurdles to see if he's good enough for the Champion and if not they'd switch to chasing. It's not a secret.
Report duffy September 16, 2010 5:02 AM BST
i thought briefly coming down the hill...peddlers got tapped for toe momentarily...but then stayed on strongly, i wouldn't want to see him drop back in trip...rather step him up to take on big bucks.
Report dananders September 16, 2010 10:20 AM BST
wont stay against big bucks and wouldnt beat him anywya . his optimum will be 2 m 4 on decent ground. hed win a soft ground champion hurdle no doubt. if it was bottomless i think big bucks could win a champion
Report deadloss September 16, 2010 10:46 AM BST
No problem kauto-kauto. I have not hidden anything on here and what you said only followed up from what I had said elsewhere.

I was just interested in your source (IE if I knew you!!)
Report kauto_kauto September 16, 2010 12:06 PM BST
okay deadloss.yeah i just know a few lads that work at the yard not yourself.

Is good what iv been hearing regards walk on and if the plans go well could be there or there abouts come the champion if you look at the form of zaynar.

good luck this year.

heard you bought Franklino, looked good in winning two flat races in france,any targets with him for november or just hoping for a good horse again?
Report deadloss September 16, 2010 12:27 PM BST
Im guessing you know Vinny then. He looks after Walkon all the time and I think he would have taken him on his honeymoon if he could.

Franklino has been bought and fingers crossed he stays fit and well. I think targets for Juveniles are some of the hardest to make. Ultimately, he will tell us when hes ready to run and after that who knows.
Report Howdi September 18, 2010 11:03 PM BST
buddeliea
Joined: 19 Mar 04
Replies: 1515 13 Sep 10 06:09   
Howdi,
i take it you are implying that cos he wins at further he is too slow at 2m? Do you know that for a fact?
I have no problem in backing a horse that wins the neptune in the following CH,and as been mentioned its proved successful before a few times.
In my eyes PC could really be anything,and whilst i dont expect him to beat Binocular or HF,thats not to say he wont!! 


No Ive been aroiund too long for such a simplistic view and of course I dont know it as fact
Report Shropshire Lad September 19, 2010 6:56 AM BST
Heard on good authority this week that Peddlars Cross IS going for the Champion as number one /two and three plan !!!!
Report millhouse September 20, 2010 9:33 AM BST
It's surely an advantage to be capable of staying 2m4f in the Champion Hurdle - the race is almost always a brutal test at the trip, and you have to genuinely get home or you are dead in the water, imo (Ekbalko, Harchibald etc)...
Report HawkWinger September 20, 2010 6:15 PM BST
Surely on the evidence of last year the only horse that could trouble Binocular is Hurricane Run ??  I sometimes think people read too much into things when trying to get a horse beaten. Binocular was so impressive last year he will have to be on a off day not to be in first two !
Report CVByrne September 20, 2010 6:36 PM BST
Hurricane Run? Also go native had a legit chance, wasn't  his true running in the champion.
Report cyclops September 21, 2010 3:32 PM BST
I'd be laying Peddlers at present. The money that has forced his price down probably means that the Champion is the first route that will be aimed at for him, but he doesn't look a two miler to me at the top level. Definitely pushed along before the home turn at Cheltenham, which isn't what you want to see, given that 5f shorter and a classier opposition awaits if he's to be a Champion contender. Furthermore, his wins last season over two miles were all in soft/heavy ground, which reduced the premium on speed. A really good horse, but I don't think the Champion will turn out to be his race. Yes, we've had Istabraq and Hardy, but they're the only two winners of the 2m5f novice race to have successfully reverted in trip. Look at all the other winners and very few ever won over two miles subsequently.
Report wellchief September 23, 2010 10:05 PM BST
I have Hurricane Fly at 14's and wouldn't swap it for anything.

Willie Mullins says hes the best hurdler he's ever trained and that is good enough for me.  He is not ground dependent because he has won on all types.  To beat Solwhit in a battling finish after months out shows he's got the right attitude and like a fight - I think he would love the hill.  He has comprehensively beat Go Native in their novice days.

IF (and thats a big if) he can stay fit he would be my banker of the festival.
Report CVByrne September 24, 2010 8:15 AM BST
Bang on the money there wellchief, I just hope we get treated to a Binocular vs Hurricane Fly. My money is on the latter. But I hope we get to find out if I'm right or wrong.
Report Rondetto September 25, 2010 6:53 AM BST
I'm a huge Binocular fan and have been since his very first race over hurdles. Backed him in all his races he's won me bundles.

Now that's out of the way AP rode an awful race when he was beaten by Punjabi. Not AP's fault, no ones really, the plan which proved to be the wrong one was hold on to him as long as you can.

They put the record straight by kicking on at the top of the hill and using Binocular one burst of speed at exactly the right time. Horses like Solwhit and Go Native simply can't cope with that.

The odds that the up and coming Menorah will improve enough are massive. The step up is massive, Grand Canyon massive, so big it's undescribable and very few novices progress to that standard in a normal year. To do it this season with the good hurdlers that are around is bodering on the impossible. If anyone wants to get rid of some money he's their best bet.

As big a fan as I am of Binocular I can't see them getting way with it against Hurricane Fly. This horse like Binocular has an amzingly high cruising speed and if and when AP kicks on  Binocular he'll be right there with him.  The difference is he will find that 3rd extra gear that Binocular simply doesn't have and it should win him the day.

Have to face facts when they are staring you right in the face, Binocular is up against it if Hurrcane Fly turns up 100% on the day.
Report millhouse September 25, 2010 11:31 AM BST
The odds that the up and coming Menorah will improve enough are massive. The step up is massive, Grand Canyon massive, so big it's undescribable and very few novices progress to that standard in a normal year. To do it this season with the good hurdlers that are around is bodering on the impossible. If anyone wants to get rid of some money he's their best bet.


Rondetto, I'm pretty sure that Gaye Brief, Dawn Run, See You Then, Royal Gait, Alderbrook, Istabraq, Make a Stand, Hardy Eustace, Sublimity and Katchit were all novices during the season they won or the season before they won.

This is unequivocally a young horse's race, imo, and I would bet that a horse that is not even in the current ante post lists is very likely to be one of the leading fancies on Champion Hurdle day - previous seasons' form very often do not mean all that much when it comes to this race, in my humble opinion - a year is a long time in NH racing...
Report moneyforoldrope September 27, 2010 1:24 PM BST
binocular will win it!!
Report benwhite8888 September 29, 2010 12:41 AM BST
Hurricane fly, that win at punchestown last season(2010), was brillant, after the injurie's to come back and win a group1 like that was special....if, BIG IF, but if it has a injury free season, should be a big threat come march...wouldn't be prepared to put my money where my mouth is at this stage though.
Report R Carver November 16, 2010 7:43 PM GMT
ttt
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