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kincsem
27 Sep 21 17:46
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Date Joined: 12 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 10,343 | Blogger: kincsem's blog
O'Brien says St Mark's Basilica is "possibly the best we have ever had in Ballydoyle".
Does that include those trained by Vincent O'Brien: Nijinsky; Sir Ivor, Sadler's Wells and a few others?

I thought Galileo was the greatest, then Hawk Wing was the greatest, then Saxon Warrior, or Magical, or was it Ten Sovereigns?

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Replies: 25
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 28 Sep 21 02:27
A wee bit simplistic kincsem  Not to mention sarcastically dismissive and derisory of probably the single most successful thoroughbred trainer in the history of UK and Ireland racing.  In fact there is no probably about it - Aidan O Brien is that man.  His views therefore carry some weight.
And when he says "we" he obviously doesn't include VOB.
By:
kincsem
When: 28 Sep 21 11:30
The Racing Post results page for St Mark's Basilica gives an OR of 127.
The Racing Post has these Official Ratings:
Hawk Wing 137
Galileo 130
Dylan Thomas 128
Australia 127
High Chaparral 126; Rip Van Winkle 126; Giant's Causeway 126; Rock Of Gibraltar 126; Johannesburg 126
(I may have missed a few)

I am not sarcastically dismissing the achievements of the trainer.
The trainer dismisses the quality of other great horses he trained.
Four I listed had higher ratings than St Mark's Basilica, one the same OR, and five were within one pound of him.
Perhaps St Mark's Basilica will be rated higher than 127 when the season is over with ratings review.


And when he says "we" he obviously doesn't include VOB.
He could have said "he was the best I trained".
By:
truehoncho
When: 28 Sep 21 12:30
Listen lads, he'll  make a great stallion.
By:
Formtwist
When: 28 Sep 21 15:51
I have my doubts on that score Truehoncho. There are not many mares bred to suit him, especially at Coolmore. Added to which only very few sires are great however good they were at racing.
By:
truehoncho
When: 28 Sep 21 19:11
It was a little attempt at humour FT. A little below par sorry!!!

I'm sure they will get one or very good mares that suit him initially, but as you say sustaining that in quantity as they did with G is the challenge.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 01 Oct 21 06:05
Aiden is a great trainer. He proved that for me when he came almost from nowhere to dominate the jumps.
But he has had many many years of 150 Galileos and it’s hard to imagine that great trainers like Henry Cecil would not have done just as well.
Aiden is always “on message”. Like when he entered Galileo for the July Cup because of his “great natural speed” and many other times. He knows who pays his wages and what they need - stallions who make a load of money.
Trouble with all the on message stuff is that it only lasts as long as the stallions offspring start appearing and it’s not easy to predict which ones will be great.
Going back, Sadler’s Wells was a top class horse, but by no means a great one. Galileo was a good Derby winner but again not one of the greats. Yet they have been the 2 greatest stallions in my lifetime.
Great horses like the Brigadier and Dancing Brave were not very successful as stallions.
Who knows how good St Marks will prove to be?
By:
truehoncho
When: 01 Oct 21 12:21
I think they have one or two more options than St Marks. Wait and see what the mares that G has been covering produce to other stallions. I have a feeling they will be stronger in 3 years than they are now. Their roster is pretty promising at the moment.
By:
A_T
When: 02 Oct 21 13:12
they are not going to go bankrupt but they've gone from havingthebest stallionin Europe to not even having one in the top 5.

the irony is Magnier is now in role-reversal with Sheikh Mohammed. For years the Sheikh refused to use Galileo but uses Dubawi and buys Frankels which Coolmore are loath to do. there is a ready-made replacement for Galileo just down the road in Sea the Stars but "the boys" won't touch him - their loss.
By:
truehoncho
When: 07 Nov 21 19:41
It looks like they have a major chance with WB and have priced him accordingly. A famous breeder once said that sire lines only last three generations. Maybe G will be Coolmore's final ND line superstar stallion.
By:
kincsem
When: 09 Nov 21 13:37
"he entered Galileo for the July Cup"
and the Cheltenham Gold Cup?Laugh
By:
truehoncho
When: 09 Nov 21 16:51
Hi Kincsem, with your pedigree insights is WB the next big thing?
By:
A_T
When: 09 Nov 21 18:28
seems overpriced at the same fee as Sea The Stars and more than Lope De Vega. Presumably there'll be plenty of takers in Irelan confident that Coolmore buy will buy the foals at the sales. Any other stud and it would be a lot less - the fee more likely to go down than up from this point IMO.
By:
truehoncho
When: 09 Nov 21 20:18
I thought it was a bit of a raise too A_T, £125 would have been a biggish hike I think. I suppose if they are planning to use him for a lot of the mares G would have been getting (that's just a pure guess) then reducing the demand a little may make sense (although Coolmore reducing demand doesn't really ring true). It is one of the more interesting ventures in thoroughbred breeding at the moment.
By:
kincsem
When: 11 Nov 21 19:07
truehoncho
Hi Kincsem, with your pedigree insights is WB the next big thing?


He is the next big priced thing.

This week I matched 2,401 mares at the upcoming breeding sales stock in IRE, GB, FR with 521 stallions in those countries.
It is an inbreeding analysis of the test-mating "foals" they could produce (2,401 x 521 = 1,250,921).
What I am looking for is a good match of a mare with a stallion.
Of course if you start with a Group 1 winning mare and send her to a 200,000+ stallion you will get a fair runner (might not).
But who has those resources?  Very few.

The program gives numbers to the "foals", a maximum of 8 (4 colt factors, 4 filly factors max).

Wootton Bassett with the 2,401 mares:    8 factors - 0.00; 7 factors 1.00; 6 factors 3.00; 5 factors 18.00; 4 factors 111.00; 3 factors 294.00; 2 factors 723.00; 1 factor; 931.00; 0 factors 320.00 = 2,401 mares
Averages 521 stallions with 2,401 mares: 8 factors - 0.09; 7 factors 2.03; 6 factors 13.26; 5 factors 48.66; 4 factors 121.11; 3 factors 311.10; 2 factors 661.21; 1 factor; 708.78; 0 factors 539.37

You can see for 8, 7, 6, 5 factors Wootton Bassett does not match as well as the average stallion.
This was my 2017 six generation analysis program.  I wrote a 10 generation program in 2020 but have not finished it yet.
There is pedigree matching in the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th generations that may be as important as the first six generations.
Recent improvements concentrated on speed.  If you want to analyse millions of pedigrees you want the PC to do it in hours, not weeks.
I reduced the 10 generation 2,046 ancestors generation from about 1.00 seconds, to 0.35 seconds, to 0.031 seconds.


This week I analysed a winner of 5 (?) Group 1 races who gets 0 factors.  His pedigree looks poor.
But in his 8th generation there is matching that is exceptional, very rare, and probably is the reason for his ability.
I will look for that feature in the 10 generation version.

Wootton Bassett may do well, but they will probably be throwing Group 1 mares at him.
By:
truehoncho
When: 11 Nov 21 20:14
Thanks Kincsem, good of you to take the time. We will watch with interest. Does your analysis point to any potential successful stallions at more working man prices?
By:
roadrunner46
When: 11 Nov 21 22:15
wootton basset had good winner today in france 47/1, there was a lope de vega favourite in the race who had achieved 86 RPR LTO, compared to the winner 85 RPR, on ratings they were evenly matched, not much difference on form either, would of closed your betting account that winner Laugh
By:
kincsem
When: 12 Nov 21 13:27
truehoncho

Of the 45 "foals" that got the maximum 8 factors 15 of the 45 top-ranked "foals" were "sired" by one sire, a newish, very inexpensive, former handicapper with a few Group wins.
You would have to take a leap of faith if you sent a mare to him.
A different sire might suit the mare better.

When I was buying a mare I did the analysis first, then bought the mare that had the best match, and sent her to that stallion (who is in France, and not pulling up trees with his first crops).
The "analysis" is now a yearling filly.

My belief is a sire does not have a special quality, a magic ability.
The magic happens when the ancestors of the sire and the ancestors of the mare suit each other.

Remember that is 15 mares out of 2,401 mares (0.6%) that when matched to that inexpensive sire get top points (matching points, which may not result in a good foal.)
What my numbers suggest is that if 4 or 5 sires out of the 521 sires suited any mare that would be exceptional.
From past analysis just under 90% of mares have no stallion in the 521 that matches.

Remember that I am only analysing the first six generations.
I expect to find more when I look further back.
By:
zygote
When: 15 Nov 21 11:19
Anyone know why Coolmore seem to have all but ignored Sea The Stars? Now that Galileo has gone, could they use his proven
half-brother?
By:
A_T
When: 15 Nov 21 18:34
they only use their own stallions and rarely buy foals from other stallions - in Europe at least
By:
truehoncho
When: 15 Nov 21 20:18
thanks again Kincsem. I hope you keep us updated on the filly, I wish you all the best.

Zygoe, A_T is right,. You have to remember they are a business. Proving a competitors stallion with their top mares or buying their foals may not always make commercial sense.
By:
Formtwist
When: 16 Nov 21 15:31
Kincsem, out of interest, what is your criteria for a match in a hypothetical mating?
By:
kincsem
When: 16 Nov 21 16:59
Formtwist
The obvious starting point is to buy a Group 1 winning mare, preferably one who has already produced a Group 1 winner.  This should cost about two million or more.
Send her to a top sire, paying at least 200k.

If you are breeding on a budget you need to analyse things.
I analyse inbreeding.
Avoid close inbreeding, anything in the first three generations.
Avoid two or more sons of a duplicated sire.  This is very common, and makes a slow horse.

The ideal is a horse with these eight factors
Colt Factors: (1) son and daughter of a duplicated sire; (2) two sons of a duplicated dam; (3) extra of either OR both above (4) full, 7/8, ¾ siblings
Filly Factors: (1)  two daughters of a duplicated sire; (2) son and daughter of a duplicated dam; (3) extra of either OR both above (4) full, 7/8, ¾ siblings
By:
truehoncho
When: 16 Nov 21 18:25
Hard to avoid two sons of Northern Dancer Kincsem. I think most of the foals in next weeks sale will be slow!!
By:
kincsem
When: 16 Nov 21 19:32
truehoncho
Hard to avoid two sons of Northern Dancer Kincsem. I think most of the foals in next weeks sale will be slow!!


The first mistake is to buy at a sale.
I analysed all yearlings sold at a sale, found the names they were given, their racing records and earnings.
Their racecourse performances were dire, and these yearlings were bought by expert bloodstock agents and trainers.
You say, perhaps jokingly, "most of the foals in next weeks sale will be slow".
The average rating of the hundreds of yearlings sold at the sale I analysed was ..... wait for it ..... drumroll please ..... 68.4
And 130 of the yearlings sold at that sale never set foot on a racecourse in the UK or IRE, perhaps never set foot on a racecourse anywhere.

These are bred not to win, but to sell based on which sires are selling well, based on popularity, on sale averages
Do auction sales companies give detailed stats of the racecourse earnings of yearlings they sold at previous sales?
Do stallion farms give a total of stallion fees earned by a sire, and the earnings of his runners, and how many never ran?

For the upcoming 2021 breeding stock sales IRE, GB, FR, I analysed 1,253,322 test-matings (2,401 mares x 521 sires, + 2,401 mares).
When I bought my second mare in December 2018 I analysed 2,346,190 test-matings.
Then I picked the best mating imo, bought the mare in the UK and sent her to the stallion in FR.  I board her in IRE.

How many classic winners are bought at auction?  Perhaps two or three in a decade.
By:
kincsem
When: 16 Nov 21 19:38
Fwiw the ratio of sons of Northern Dancer to daughters of Northern Dancer in my data is 14.3 to 1.
Breeding "the best to the best" and all that twaddle will give you duplications of sons of Northern Dancer.
Another saying is "never put sire line over sire line" and I agree with that.
Of course, there are many, many, many good horses with sons of Northern Dancer but in general it is a negative.
One or two examples of anything is not proof.  Analysis of big data is proof.
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