Bloodstock & Breeding
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12 Dec 20
11:05
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25 Apr 11
starting with 2019 flat turf + AW season, GB table top 50 sires
statistical analysis is the collection and interpretation of data to uncover patterns and trends. it is a component of data analytics, statistical analysis can be used in situations like gathering research interpretation
statistical analysis is the collection and interpretation of data to uncover patterns and trends. it is a component of data analytics, statistical analysis can be used in situations like gathering research interpretation
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SW = stake wins >>>>>>>> stallion name >>>>>>>>>>>>>> wins plus or minus based on previous season
(0) POETS VOICE 46 - (died) (3/3) EXCEED AND EXCEL 28 - (1/2) SOCIETY ROCK 25 - (died) (2/3) CAPE CROSS 24 - (died) (2/3) KODIAC 23 - (2/2) ACCLAMATION 21 - (2/3) EQUIANO 19 - (1/1) KYLLACHY 18 - (1/1) ARCANO 18 - (4/4) DANSILI 14 - (11/11) KINGMAN 49 + (1/1) DANDY MAN 39 + (4/4) AUSTRALIA 34 + (2/2) ZOFFANY 30 + (1/2) CHARM SPIRIT 25 + (6/16) SEA THE STARS 22 + (0) HELMET 17 + (0) SWISS SPIRIT 17 + (0) SIR PERCY 16 + (5/5) DREAM AHEAD 15 + |
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stallion name >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> number of winless horses 2019 season
KODIAC 153 DARK ANGEL 130 IFFRAAJ 106 SHOWCASING 106 LOPE DE VEGA 95 CAMACHO 91 DUBAWI 90 POETS VOICE 88 DANDY MAN 88 EXCEED AND EXCEL 82 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DUTCH ART 42 FRANKEL 42 DREAM AHEAD 40 CAPE CROSS 39 PIVOTAL 39 CHARM SPIRIT 33 DELEGATOR 32 FOXWEDGE 31 ARCANO 29 DECLARATION OF WAR 27 |
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its not important, should of had FAST COMPANY on 41 winless horses, with FRANKEL and DUTCH ART both on 42, it would of made the list 11 horses instead of 10, which it should be.
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just spent 1 hour typing a revised version of 2019 results with 2yo results added and an update on fast company (died) and delegator (died), authorization denied
 there was some very interesting results. will post 2yo results alongside with 2020 flat sires results statistical analysis in january |
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did notice that the statistical analysis captured a fair amount of the top 50 stallions, which definitely explains why a few of them have been on fire in the last week
 thats the AW factor as well imo |
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follow-up to 2019 stats that were based on 2018, so 2019 and 2020 stats, compare - contrast - conclude. wins plus or minus based on previous season
POETS VOICE 46 - 2 - EXCEED AND EXCEL 28 - 19 - SOCIETY ROCK 25 - 20 - CAPE CROSS 24 - 29 - KODIAC 23 - 23 - ACCLAMATION 21 - 19 - KYLLACHY 18 - 25 - retired ARCANO 18 - 30 - EQUIANO 19 - 2 - DANSILI 14 - 37 - |
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KINGMAN 49 + 5 +
DANDY MAN 39 + 47 - AUSTRALIA 34 + 7 - ZOFFANY 30 + 11 - CHARM SPIRIT 25 + 7 - SEA THE STARS 22 + 28 - HELMET 17 + 13 - SWISS SPIRIT 17 + 11 - SIR PERCY 16 + 27 - DREAM AHEAD 15 + 19 - moved to france |
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number of winless horses 2019 and 2020
KODIAC 153 169 DARK ANGEL 130 134 IFFRAAJ 106 107 SHOWCASING 106 91 LOPE DE VEGA 95 96 CAMACHO 91 78 DUBAWI 90 110 POETS VOICE 88 61 EXCEED AND EXCEL 82 90 -------------------------------------------- DUTCH ART 42 48 FAST COMPANY 41 53 CAPE CROSS 39 22 DREAM AHEAD 40 33 PIVOTAL 39 47 CHARM SPIRIT 33 43 DELEGATOR 32 22 FOXWEDGE 31 19 ARCANO 29 18 DECLARATION OF WAR 18 |
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will post 2020 stats for the GB top 50 stallions, when ive got some spare time
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number of winless horses 2020
KODIAC 169 DARK ANGEL 134 DANDY MAN 111 DUBAWI 110 IFFRAAJ 107 LOPE DE VEGA 96 OASIS DREAM 93 SHOWCASING 91 ZOFFANY 91 (died) EXCEED AND EXCEL 90 ----------------------------------- NO NAY NEVER 47 PIVOTAL 47 SEEPOY 46 ZEBEEDEE 45 GLENEAGLES 45 NIGHT OF THUNDER 41 CHARM SPIRIT 43 HARBOUR WATCH 37 (retired) SIR PRANCELOT 35 DREAM AHEAD 33 MEHMAS 25 |
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plus or minus wins for 2020 based on 2019
DANDY MAN 47 - MASTERCRAFTSMAN 34 - SHAMARDAL 31 - DUTCH ART 30 - PIVOTAL 30 - CHAMPS ELYSEES 30 - SEA THE STARS 28 - INVINCIBLE SPIRIT 27 - NEW APPROACH 27 - KYLLACHY 25 - -------------------------- GOLDEN HORN 53 + MUHAARAR 37 + GLENEAGLES 28 + SHOWCASING 26 + SIYOUNI 18 + NIGHT OF THUNDER 12 + KINGMAN 5 + MAYSON 3 + TEOFILO 2 + only 9 horses in the top 50 GB stallions table had more wins then in 2019 |
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if you discount the stallions with only two or three crops running for them, SHOWCASING was top of the table with nearest rival siyouni with his first season in the top 50 only 7 behind.
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2020 GB top 50 stallions 2yo's stats
LOPE DE VEGA 36-4-5 MASTERCRAFTSMAN 20-3-3 PIVOTAL 18-4-4 NEW APPROACH 18-4-4 NIGHT OF THUNDER 20-5-6 ------------------------------- MEHMAS 63-38-55 KODIAC 91-39-49 SHOWCASING 50-19-26 DUBAWI 62-23-30 DARK ANGEL 62-24-27 |
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these are the 2019 GB top 50 stallions 2yo's stats, just for the records, as some stallions have died or retired, ive made the list slightly different, next year with the follow-up to the 2020 season, maybe some possible trends will be more understood and reverse trends seem to be more common, not enough data and also just the way the bloodstock industry
works and the implication that has on the trends and patterns. HELMET 34-3-3 EQUIANO 28-3-4 CAMACHO 57-11-14 AUSTRALIA 24-5-7 SWISS SPIRIT 26-6-7 --------------------- KODIAC 84-34-40 DANDY MAN 55-23-35 DARK ANGEL 68-24-32 DUBAWI 52-18-23 LOPE DE VEGA 41-14-18 |
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2021 season based on 2020 (plus or minus wins) unusual 2020 covid season, explains why 45 of top 50 stallions finished with more wins in 2021
FRANKEL 58 + DUBAWI 51 + DARK ANGEL 49 + TWILIGHT SON 45 + MEHMAS 39 + LETHAL FORCE 38 + NEW BAY 38 + ATWAAD 36 + DANDY MAN 35 + HAVANA GOLD 32 + IFFRAAJ 31 + --------------------------- NATHANIEL 13 - ZOFFANY 8 - POETS VOICE 6 - GOLDEN HORN 5 - EQUIANO 0 - SHOWCASING 2 + INVINCIBLE SPIRIT 3 + OASIS DREAM 3 + SHAMARDAL 5 + SIYOUNI 6 + SWISS SPIRIT 6 + will finish the rest of 2021 lists in few days time |
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made mistake on that list should read SEA THE STARS 48 + in 4th place
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number of winless horses 2021, you can compare with other seasons listed below
KODIAK 159 DARK ANGEL 131 SHOWCASING 108 IFFRAAJ 88 FRANKEL 87 DUBAWI 85 DANDY MAN 85 ZOFFANY 85 LOPE DE VEGA 83 OASIS DREAM 82 ---------------------- NEW BAY 19 LE HARVE 20 MUKHADRAM 29 TORNADO 30 POETS VOICE 31 ATWAAD 32 COACH HOUSE 38 SHAMARDAL 43 TEOFILO 44 CABLE BAY 48 |
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2021 2yo stats
MEHMAS 60-32-46 KODIAK 88-35-43 DARK ANGEL 66-25-35 COTAI GLORY 51-25-35 HAVANA GOLD 56-23-34 ------------------------ CHURHILL 46-10-12 ADAAY 41-7-11 CARAVAGGIO 35-8-8 AUSTRALIA 30-5-5 POSTPONED 30-3-30 |
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Interesting stats but the most expensive sires are not used to produce early 2yos. Kodiac and Dark Angel have an awful lot of low grade older sprint handicappers around which make up the numbers but their maidens and novices still win a lot of races. I very rarely bet horses that have run more than 4 times.
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not something ive given much thought too, the numbers speak a language i can decipher and its vast subject matter, never dedicated thinking time to try and
understand a particular stallion, know most of them from their race records and reason don't give explanation to the stats, would involve more learning AUSTRALIA 100-31-58 2021 2yo's 41-167 overall, will take a closer look this year at that stallion, with so many having a good season last year, will be interesting season ahead, hopefully lot richer by end of season |
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finally put the table up arion pedigrees, kingman leading with 7 wins, good win in winter oaks off a low weight, and helmet 20/1 winner
wasn't around, damn that card at lingfield was very good |
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gamble landed today 14/1 into 17/2 and a winning 3yo FTO for australia
 just hope everything is ready for start of flat season |
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The shame about continuous flat racing is the likely lack of good maiden 3yos come March 26 when the turf flat resumes. In the pre floodlight age, all of the top stables had blue blooded 3yo middle distance horses ready to go and the bush telegraph kept them apart until they had all won their maiden. Now they can win in December, January, February and it is hard to judge which are the real deal and which are just trying to win a poor maiden. Your point about Australia is a good one though. Not many of them would be ready to run over a mile or less so there should be plenty capable of winning a 10 furlong maiden. Same goes for Sea The Stars.
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