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roadrunner46
12 Dec 20 11:05
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Date Joined: 25 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 7,758 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
starting with 2019 flat turf + AW season, GB table top 50 sires

statistical analysis is the collection and interpretation of data to uncover patterns and trends. it is a component of data analytics, statistical analysis  can be used in situations like gathering research interpretation
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Report roadrunner46 December 12, 2020 11:27 AM GMT
SW = stake wins >>>>>>>> stallion name >>>>>>>>>>>>>> wins plus or minus based on previous season

(0) POETS VOICE 46 - (died)

(3/3) EXCEED AND EXCEL 28 -

(1/2) SOCIETY ROCK 25 - (died)

(2/3) CAPE CROSS 24 - (died)

(2/3) KODIAC  23 -

(2/2) ACCLAMATION  21 -

(2/3) EQUIANO 19 -

(1/1) KYLLACHY 18 -

(1/1) ARCANO 18 -

(4/4) DANSILI 14 -

(11/11) KINGMAN  49 +

(1/1) DANDY MAN 39 +

(4/4) AUSTRALIA 34 +

(2/2) ZOFFANY 30 +

(1/2) CHARM  SPIRIT  25 +

(6/16) SEA THE STARS 22 +

(0) HELMET 17 +

(0) SWISS SPIRIT  17 +

(0) SIR PERCY 16 +

(5/5) DREAM  AHEAD  15 +
Report roadrunner46 December 12, 2020 12:19 PM GMT
stallion name >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> number of winless horses 2019 season

KODIAC 153

DARK ANGEL 130

IFFRAAJ 106

SHOWCASING 106

LOPE DE VEGA 95

CAMACHO 91

DUBAWI 90

POETS VOICE 88

DANDY MAN 88

EXCEED  AND EXCEL 82

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

DUTCH ART 42

FRANKEL  42

DREAM  AHEAD 40

CAPE CROSS 39

PIVOTAL 39

CHARM SPIRIT 33

DELEGATOR 32

FOXWEDGE 31

ARCANO 29

DECLARATION OF WAR 27
Report roadrunner46 December 12, 2020 12:30 PM GMT
its not important, should of had FAST COMPANY on 41 winless horses, with FRANKEL and DUTCH ART both on 42, it would  of made the list 11 horses instead of 10, which it should be.
Report roadrunner46 December 16, 2020 8:13 AM GMT
just spent 1 hour typing a revised version  of 2019 results with 2yo results added and an update on fast company (died) and delegator (died), authorization deniedCry
there was some very interesting results.

will post 2yo results alongside  with 2020 flat sires results statistical  analysis in january
Report roadrunner46 December 20, 2020 5:56 AM GMT
did notice that the statistical analysis captured a fair amount of the top 50 stallions, which definitely explains why a few of them have been on fire in the last weekWink
thats the AW factor as well imo
Report roadrunner46 January 1, 2021 11:20 AM GMT
follow-up to 2019 stats that were based on 2018, so 2019 and 2020 stats, compare - contrast - conclude. wins plus or minus based on previous season

POETS VOICE  46 - 2 -

EXCEED AND EXCEL 28 - 19 -

SOCIETY  ROCK 25 - 20 -

CAPE CROSS 24 - 29 -

KODIAC  23 - 23 -

ACCLAMATION  21 - 19 -

KYLLACHY 18 - 25 - retired

ARCANO 18 - 30 -

EQUIANO 19 - 2 -

DANSILI 14 - 37 -
Report roadrunner46 January 1, 2021 11:27 AM GMT
KINGMAN  49 + 5 +

DANDY MAN 39 + 47 -

AUSTRALIA 34 + 7 -

ZOFFANY  30 + 11 -

CHARM SPIRIT 25 + 7 -

SEA THE STARS 22 + 28 -

HELMET  17 + 13 -

SWISS  SPIRIT  17 + 11 -

SIR PERCY 16 + 27 -

DREAM  AHEAD 15 + 19 - moved to france
Report roadrunner46 January 1, 2021 11:37 AM GMT
number of winless horses 2019 and 2020

KODIAC 153 169

DARK  ANGEL  130 134

IFFRAAJ 106 107

SHOWCASING  106 91

LOPE DE VEGA 95 96

CAMACHO  91 78

DUBAWI 90 110

POETS  VOICE 88 61

EXCEED AND EXCEL 82 90

--------------------------------------------

DUTCH  ART 42 48

FAST COMPANY 41 53

CAPE CROSS 39 22

DREAM  AHEAD 40 33

PIVOTAL  39 47

CHARM SPIRIT  33 43

DELEGATOR 32 22

FOXWEDGE 31 19

ARCANO  29 18

DECLARATION OF WAR 18
Report roadrunner46 January 1, 2021 11:58 AM GMT
will post 2020 stats for the GB top 50 stallions, when ive got some spare time
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2021 4:27 PM GMT
number of winless horses 2020


KODIAC  169

DARK ANGEL 134

DANDY MAN 111

DUBAWI 110

IFFRAAJ 107

LOPE DE VEGA 96

OASIS DREAM 93

SHOWCASING  91

ZOFFANY 91 (died)

EXCEED AND EXCEL 90

-----------------------------------

NO NAY NEVER 47

PIVOTAL  47

SEEPOY 46

ZEBEEDEE 45

GLENEAGLES 45

NIGHT OF THUNDER 41

CHARM SPIRIT 43

HARBOUR  WATCH 37 (retired)

SIR PRANCELOT 35

DREAM  AHEAD 33

MEHMAS 25
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2021 4:37 PM GMT
plus or minus wins for 2020 based on 2019

DANDY MAN 47 -

MASTERCRAFTSMAN 34 -

SHAMARDAL 31 -

DUTCH ART 30 -

PIVOTAL  30 -

CHAMPS ELYSEES 30 -

SEA THE STARS 28 -

INVINCIBLE  SPIRIT  27 -

NEW APPROACH  27 -

KYLLACHY 25 -

--------------------------

GOLDEN  HORN 53 +

MUHAARAR  37 +

GLENEAGLES 28 +

SHOWCASING 26 +

SIYOUNI 18 +

NIGHT OF THUNDER  12 +

KINGMAN 5 +

MAYSON 3 +

TEOFILO 2 +

only 9 horses in the top 50 GB stallions table had more wins then in 2019
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2021 4:56 PM GMT
if you discount the stallions with only two or three crops running for them, SHOWCASING was top of the table with nearest rival siyouni with his first season in the top 50 only 7 behind.
Report roadrunner46 January 11, 2021 8:27 AM GMT
2020 GB top 50 stallions 2yo's stats

LOPE DE VEGA 36-4-5

MASTERCRAFTSMAN 20-3-3

PIVOTAL 18-4-4

NEW APPROACH 18-4-4

NIGHT OF THUNDER 20-5-6

-------------------------------

MEHMAS 63-38-55

KODIAC 91-39-49

SHOWCASING 50-19-26

DUBAWI 62-23-30

DARK ANGEL 62-24-27
Report roadrunner46 January 12, 2021 6:00 AM GMT
these are the 2019 GB top 50 stallions 2yo's stats, just for the records, as some stallions have died or retired, ive made the list slightly different, next year with the follow-up to the 2020 season, maybe some possible trends will be more understood and reverse trends seem to be more common, not enough data and also just the way the bloodstock industry
works and the implication that has on the trends and patterns.

HELMET 34-3-3

EQUIANO 28-3-4

CAMACHO  57-11-14

AUSTRALIA 24-5-7

SWISS SPIRIT 26-6-7

---------------------

KODIAC 84-34-40

DANDY MAN 55-23-35

DARK  ANGEL 68-24-32

DUBAWI 52-18-23

LOPE DE VEGA 41-14-18
Report roadrunner46 January 9, 2022 9:56 PM GMT
2021 season based on 2020 (plus or minus wins) unusual 2020 covid season, explains why 45 of top 50 stallions finished with more wins in 2021

FRANKEL 58 +
DUBAWI 51 +
DARK ANGEL 49 +
TWILIGHT SON 45 +
MEHMAS 39 +
LETHAL FORCE 38 +
NEW BAY 38 +
ATWAAD 36 +
DANDY MAN 35 +
HAVANA GOLD 32 +
IFFRAAJ 31 +
---------------------------

NATHANIEL  13 -
ZOFFANY 8 -
POETS VOICE  6 -
GOLDEN HORN 5 -
EQUIANO 0 -
SHOWCASING 2 +
INVINCIBLE SPIRIT  3 +
OASIS DREAM  3 +
SHAMARDAL 5 +
SIYOUNI 6 +
SWISS SPIRIT  6 +

will finish the rest of 2021 lists in few days time
Report roadrunner46 January 9, 2022 10:59 PM GMT
made mistake on that list should read SEA THE STARS 48 + in 4th place
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2022 4:13 PM GMT
number of winless horses 2021, you can compare with other seasons listed below   

KODIAK 159
DARK ANGEL 131
SHOWCASING 108
IFFRAAJ 88
FRANKEL 87
DUBAWI 85
DANDY MAN 85
ZOFFANY 85
LOPE DE VEGA 83
OASIS DREAM 82
----------------------

NEW BAY 19
LE HARVE 20
MUKHADRAM 29
TORNADO 30
POETS VOICE 31
ATWAAD 32
COACH HOUSE 38
SHAMARDAL 43
TEOFILO 44
CABLE BAY 48
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2022 7:35 PM GMT
2021 2yo stats

MEHMAS 60-32-46
KODIAK 88-35-43
DARK ANGEL 66-25-35
COTAI GLORY 51-25-35
HAVANA GOLD 56-23-34
------------------------

CHURHILL 46-10-12
ADAAY 41-7-11
CARAVAGGIO 35-8-8
AUSTRALIA 30-5-5
POSTPONED 30-3-30
Report sageform January 14, 2022 9:55 AM GMT
Interesting stats but the most expensive sires are not used to produce early 2yos. Kodiac and Dark Angel have an awful lot of low grade older sprint handicappers around which make up the numbers but their maidens and novices still win a lot of races. I very rarely bet horses that have run more than 4 times.
Report roadrunner46 January 14, 2022 1:07 PM GMT
not something ive given much thought too, the numbers speak a language i can decipher and its vast subject matter, never dedicated thinking time to try and
understand a particular stallion, know most of them from their race records and reason don't give explanation to the stats, would involve more learning

AUSTRALIA 100-31-58 2021 2yo's 41-167 overall, will take a closer look this year at that stallion, with so many having a good season last year, will be interesting season ahead, hopefully lot richer by end of season
Report roadrunner46 January 25, 2022 7:40 PM GMT
finally put the table up arion pedigrees, kingman leading with 7 wins, good win in winter oaks off a low weight, and helmet 20/1 winner Wink wasn't around, damn that card at lingfield was very good
Report roadrunner46 January 27, 2022 7:35 PM GMT
gamble landed  today 14/1 into 17/2 and a winning 3yo FTO for australiaCool just hope everything is ready for start of flat season
Report sageform January 28, 2022 9:05 AM GMT
The shame about continuous flat racing is the likely lack of good maiden 3yos come March 26 when the turf flat resumes. In the pre floodlight age, all of the top stables had blue blooded 3yo middle distance horses ready to go and the bush telegraph kept them apart until they had all won their maiden. Now they can win in December, January, February and it is hard to judge which are the real deal and which are just trying to win a poor maiden. Your point about Australia is a good one though. Not many of them would be ready to run over a mile or less so there should be plenty capable of winning a 10 furlong maiden. Same goes for Sea The Stars.
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