Byerley Turk and Godolphin Arabian Sirelines

I've just remembered that the very good US horse Tiznow is from the In Reality line so there may be some hope there.
Inchinor sired Notnowcato but I wouldn't be confident he will found a line.

Here is some work I did a while back.

It shows the rise in some sire lines and the disappearance of others.
With an exercise like this you must pick a starting point.
I picked around 1920 and counted the number of offspring from that sire line by decade.
The data is from my database of about 382,000 horses.

You will see some sire lines e.g. Nearco (b 1935) increase every decade thanks to Northern Dancer (b 1961) and others.
The Peter Pan, Chaucer, Sunstar, The Tetrarch and other direct descent sire lines have disappeared.
It is rapidly becoming obvious that the only surviving sire lines are Northern Dancer (from Nearco) and Mr Prospector (from Sickle).

Name_(dob)_______________total = 2000__1990__1980__1970__1960__1950__1940_1930_1920_1910_1900
Nearco_(1935)__________112,558 = 46600_31558_18336_8810__4152__1705__317___1___0___0___0
Sickle_(1924)____________26,264 = 12317_7725__3586__1531__501___196___116___60___1___0___0
Bayardo_(1906)__________21,170 = 1749__4319__3682__3425__2939__2727__1452__563___247___47___1
Blandford_(1919)__________9,538 = 635___969___953___1503__1693__1825__1389__509___38___1___0
Teddy_(1913)_____________8,803 = 174___491___823___1078__1393__2381__1607__702___148___6___0
Bruleur_(1910)____________8,354 = 1644__1328__733___988___1079__1688__546___238___90___14___0
Rabelais_(1900)___________6,904 = 332___963___1609__1503__897___740___294___233___220___96___17
Fairway_(1925)___________6,777 = 55___400___1025__1300__1435__1565__838___158___1___0___0
Dark Ronald_(1905)________5,842 = 362___314___582___658___521___811___1226__917___357___92___1
Rose Prince_(1919)________5,675 = 113___207___1047__1848__1510__770___140___30___9___1___0
Fair Play_(1905)___________5,565 = 1286__875___827___554___533___539___399___316___189___36___1
Hurry On_(1913)__________2,685 = 25___11___79___277___470___788___467___363___195___10___0
Peter Pan_(1904)_________2,396 = 0___0___92___425___554___591___329___224___136___43___2
Chaucer_(1900)__________2,166 = 0___12___129___224___389___818___385___64___65___70___10
Orby_(1904)_____________2,002 = 1___13___125___293___564___370___227___168___173___67___1
Pharamond_(1925)________1,940 = 180___157___482___536___298___111___133___42___1___0___0
Sunstar_(1908)___________1,539 = 0___1___0___8___48___296___239___379___460___107___1
Pharis_(1936)____________1,394 = 3___29___191___289___291___471___119___1___0___0___0
Tracery_(1909)___________1,390 = 1___1___1___26___72___245___365___413___219___46___1
The Tetrarch_(1911)_______1,307 = 0___0___0___9___78___266___229___394___287___44___0
Manna_(1922)_____________855 = 4___81___135___151___110___121___141___97___15___0___0
Massine_(1920)____________855 = 0___21___23___14___65___338___284___94___16___0___0
Spearmint_(1903)__________760 = 0___0___0___0___4___18___141___241___225___119___12
Ferro_(1923)_____________752 = 0___14___149___211___166___124___63___24___1___0___0
Questionnaire_(1927)______694 = 38___27___117___212___83___105___98___13___1___0___0
Kircubbin_(1918)__________653 = 1___1___3___22___151___292___99___58___25___1___0
Alcantara_(1908)__________631 = 0___0___1___22___45___180___168___93___89___32___1
Colin_(1905)_____________550 = 45___99___140___95___22___37___44___42___17___8___1
Sweep_(1907)____________548 = 0___0___0___5___47___75___158___151___85___26___1
Ultimus_(1906)___________492 = 0___0___0___1___3___20___113___180___138___36___1
Sardanapale_(1911)________412 = 0___0___0___0___0___11___115___172___88___26___0
Colorado_(1923)__________376 = 0___0___0___2___13___92___148___109___12___0___0
Fastnet_(1933)___________357 = 0___0___0___2___63___225___66___1___0___0___0
Epinard_(1920)___________277 = 0___0___0___6___10___33___142___74___12___0___0
Firdaussi_(1929)__________249 = 0___0___0___0___6___116___99___27___1___0___0
Sansovino_(1921)_________210 = 0___0___0___0___1___11___71___101___26___0___0
Cameronian_(1928)________187 = 0___0___0___0___5___49___96___36___1___0___0
Bozzetto_(1936)__________183 = 0___0___0___2___41___98___41___1___0___0___0
Bachelor'S Double_(1906)__182 = 0___0___0___0___0___1___16___42___87___35___1
Signal Light_(1936)________100 = 0___0___0___0___16___45___38___1___0___0___0
Rhodes Scholar_(1933)______80 = 0___0___1___5___7___25___38___4___0___0___0
El Greco_(1934)___________51 = 0___0___0___0___1___21___28___1___0___0___0
Pherozshah_(1934)_________47 = 0___0___0___0___6___11___29___1___0___0___0
Brueghel_(1932)___________34 = 0___0___0___0___0___8___23___3___0___0___0
Phideas_(1934)____________31 = 0___0___0___0___0___8___22___1___0___0___0
Lighthouse_(1937)_________26 = 0___0___0___0___2___6___17___1___0___0___0

All Sire Lines__________243,861 = 65565_49616_34871_26035_20284_20973_13115_7343__3675__963__52


Sire lines from the 1850s to today

name_________________dob__sireno___total__2010__2000__1990__1980__1970__1960__1950__1940__1930__1910__1900__1890__1880__1870__1860__1850__1840
BEADSMAN____________1855__BEA_____440_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____7_____48_____71_____181_____111_____19_____1_____0
KING TOM_____________1851__KIN_____629_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____1_____3_____40____36_____91_____207_____135_____88_____19_____0
LEXINGTON____________1850__LEX_____520_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____1_____7_____25_____42_____104_____149_____158_____30_____0
NEWMINSTER__________1848__NEW__31301___20__2093__4583__4185__024__3464__3673__2842__1708__721___731___920_____668_____366_____153_____28_____1
ORLANDO_____________1841__ORL____5508_____0____81___123___345__730___661___753___588___480___258___157___270_____256_____171_____170_____92_____8
OXFORD______________1857__OXF____13701____23__630___975__1085__1767_1941_2079__1691___909___647___665___475_____220______55______17______1_____0
RATAPLAN_____________1850__RAT_____700_____0_____0_____0_____0_____2_____14_____6_____19____50___98______96____109_____95______66_____69_____10_____0
STOCKWELL____________1849__STO__173407_1309_58939_39955_24398_13936_9254_8521_5357_3250__1916___1445___1046____733_____436_____248____63_____1
SWEETMEAT____________1842__SWE_____566_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____10_____26_____64_____163_____208_____57____34_____2
THE FLYING DUTCHMAN__1846__THE_____9265____6__1636__1305__709___967__1068__1714__712___369____103___117____107_____95_____56______64_____51_____1
THORMANBY___________1857__THO____2216_____0_____0_____0_____0_____9_____76___270__242___513_____236___121____86_____69_____34______35_____1_____0
TOXOPHILITE___________1855__TOX____1579_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____4_____18___139____251____287___253____229_____103____27_____5_____1_____0
VOLTIGEUR_____________1847__VOL___25691____0___437__1182__2762_3641__3117___3424__1863__1641___2194__1746____851_____279___93_____65____35_____1
WEST  AUSTRALIAN______1850__WES____9646____10__1303___872__891__815___984___1321___889___782_____334___238____208____196____120____67____25_____0
WILD DAYRELL__________1852__WIL_____933_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0______2______2_____13____32_____105___126_____174____210____117____82____10_____0
YOUNG MELBOURNE____1855__YOU_____150_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0______0______0________3_____10_____15_____22_____59_____37_____4_____0

Northern Dancer and Mr prospector are descended from the Stockwell sire line.

Mr Prospector - Native Dancer - Polynesian - Unbreakable - Sickle - Phalaris - Polymelus - Cyllene - Bona Vista - Bend Or - Doncaster - Stockwell

In 2012 Dr Mim Bower published DNA evaluation that showed that Bend Or was really a stallion named Tadcaster.
That means that every pedigree with Northern Dancer is wrong.

The pedigree expert Harold Hampton (d. 1998) mentions in his book The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding Part 3 that the sire of Native Dancer (ancestor of Mr Prospector)
is probably not Polynesian as generally accepted but is more likely to be Challedon who stood at the same stud.

That means that 89.9% of the sires in my database born in the 2000s have incorrect pedigrees.

But the influence of a "sire line" is a bit of a fiction.
In a six generation pedigree the sire on the sire line in the 6th generation is 1/126 of the pedigree.
In a twelve generation pedigree the sire on the sire line in the 12th generation is 1/8190  of the pedigree.

Interesting stuff again kincsem.
I haven't got anything like your figures but it does look as though Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector will end up as the only sirelines ( the latter is nothing like as evident as ND in the British Isles,partly due to Coolmore,but seems to be developing an edge in the States. There IS still a bit more variety in the US. Some Nasrullah and Ribot lines still have some import. In addition I think Deep Impact who is having a very significant effect in some areas of the world is from a separate Nearco line.
I knew DNA studies had caused problems about early Stud Book entries but didn't realise something as relatively recent as Native Dancer was in doubt. Not only is he the founder of the Mr Prospector line but he was also Northern Dancer's damsire so that changes practically everything.
I take your point about the influence of one sire  but a lot of modern thoroughbreds would have Native Dancer in particular all over their pedigree.

The Harold Hampton book I mentioned (Part 3, publ 1997) was published posthumously.
“Harold recorded these chapters on audio tape and barely managed to have them transcribed before leaving us.  …. The Levin Breeders Forum (in New Zealand) undertook to oversee the production of Harold’s book”.

The only photo I’ve seen of Harold Hampton (1912-1993) is in the opening pages of the Part 3 book.
When I started looking at pedigrees in the early 1990s I bought the pedigree software package TesioPower and also some books from Jack Glangarry (NZ) who was selling TesioPower.
I bought among other publications two small booklets by Harold Hampton, The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding.
Part 1 was 40 pages, cost 10/6 NZ, published 1954.  Part 2 was 56 pages, originally published 1956 (my copy “Reprinted 1993 from an old poor copy by The New Zealand Turf Register”).

The question about Native Dancer’s sire is speculation by Harold Hampton.
“What we have to consider is Native Dancer’s racing ability, and that was of the highest class order, winning 21 races out of 22 ….
Now we come to the sire Polynesian’s part in this make up of Northern dancer, almost nothing at the 5th generation, very little at the 6th generation ….
But you have to go back to the 7th, 8th, 9th generation, and 10th to find any help there……
I do not regard it as strong enough, nor good enough to give Native Dancer such racing ability with his dam’s background accumulation of the Number 8 family of Beeswing.
Now while looking around to try to find out what could be wrong, looking up some old magazines of the “Blood Horse” published in America …..
that had the following adverts about a stallion that stood at the same stud as Polynesian; his name is Challedon.
By substituting Challedon in the place of Polynesian we get a whole host of what was beneficial to Native Dancer’s racing ability.

My comment: in the past it was very common to have a mare covered by a stallion and later by another stallion in the following month(s), with the result that parentage is often guesswork.

You might think pedigrees are mainly correct, but I have found many errors in the stud books everyone has on their shelves.
I wrote to the authorities and they accepted many and rejected some of my observations.
Some were real errors, some were printing errors.

Harold Hampton on page 177 of the Part 3 book mentions a New Zealand owner with a business exporting scrap metal to China.
One year he went to Japan on this business and left instructions with his wife and with his stud groom for the mating of his 120 mares and of the visting mares to his three stallions - which mare with which stallion.
A week after he went on the trip the stud groom, who had all the instructions, left, and his wife employed another stud groom.
The owner was delayed in Japan from September to November.
When he came back he did not know which mare had been mated with which stallion.
All he could do was make stud book returns based on his original list.

Harold Hampton said at another time he spoke to a visiting equine insurance agent.  (Part 3, pages 177,178, 179)
Hampton said he thought only about 97% of pedigrees were accurate, with about 3% wrong.
The insurance agent said “You can make that 11%.  Most of them don’t know the pedigrees of the horses they are dealing with.
I have to correct them all the time.  You can make your percentage 87% correct and the rest very doubtful.”

Is is possible to trace female lines by DNA.  Errors have been found, but stud books have not been/will not be corrected.

Tiznow apparently has 13 sons at stud in the US and has one or two in the Far East. I can't find anything other than Notnowcato from the Ahonoora line and he's not setting the world on fire. I don't think there's anything from the Byerley Turk line in the US so that may be close to extinction.

In a Tony Morris article on pages 24,25 of Thoroughbred OwnerBreeder magazine May 2018.

"A couple of months ago I was contacted by Suzi pritchard Jones, who wanted to draw my attention to the fact that the male line of the Byerley Turk seemed to be dying out in this part of the world.
I was aware of its evident decline, but had not realised that in Britain and Ireland it had now no more than five representatives - Dunaden, Indian Haven, Notnowcato, Orientor and Secret Pearl.

What were the chances that one of them might suddenly become commercially attractive to breeders, or that some other representative of the line might be imported and become favoured with good opportunities?
Where might such a horse be found?

While we were scratching our heads over that situation, we heard that there had been recent research into the horse's y chromosome undertaken by a team headed by Barbara Wallner in Vienna.
And errors had been found, among them the revelation that male-line descendants of Persimmon and St Frusquin had the markers associated with the Byerley Turk line.
Persimmon and St Frusquin between them won the colts' Classics of 1896, each a son of the multiple champion sire St Simon, and hiterto recognised as products of the Darley Arabian line.
And there is a plausible candidate to explain the anomaly.

St Simon's sire. the 1875 Derby winner Galopin, was recorded as being by Vedette, a bona vide Darley descendant.
But there had always been a suspicion that he was instead a son of Delight, from the Byerley line.
We might start to believe that now."


Galopin (1872) by Vedette (1854) out of Flying Duchess (1853)
In my database there is one male horse named Delight around that time period.
Delight (1863) by Ellington (1853) out of Placid (1850) traces back to the Byerley Turk (1684)
In my data Delight has no offspring, but in pedigreequery.com he has two daughters: Delight Mare (1872) and Little Agnes (1876).