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ELGIN has had a pretty good season and is a pretty useful novice.
He is due to run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham next week. Has last two runs in graded company were very solid. He probably caught a couple of very good horses in NEON WOLF and RIVER WYLDE. Its great to have a runner at the festival who will put up a good showing. |
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Not a bad start to the new season for ELGIN.
A listed handicap win at Ascot and now a graded win at Cheltenham in the Greatwood. Although this horse is homebred, he is not from one of our foundation mares families. Its been a pretty good year all in all! |
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Another good run from ELGIN in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.
The trainer is now keen on supplementing him for the Champion Hurdle. It would be great for the club to have a runner in such a Championship race. He would need to improve again to be in the race at the second last of course. |
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best of luck with Elgin. Apart from Buveur, the rest all have questions to answer and Elgin at least has recent form. My only likely bet at the moment is MTOY place only but I might add a similar one on Elgin once the final decs. are known.
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Thanks sageform. Although he has won on soft ground, I obviously hoped the rain would stay away.
AK thinks he ideally wants better ground, but we've paid the 20 grand now, and if the race is on he'll be running. He's in very good nick, and his lead horse won a handicap on the flat off a very lofty racing recently. Good luck with MTOY. We could have the first three between us. |
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RPR list now:
Buveur. Faugheen MTOY Wicklow Brave Elgin. You are the only one that should improve a bit from that list. |
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The absence of MTOY confirms why I very rarely bet until the last half hour before a race. I resisted the temptation to back him until this afternoon. Elgin looks a very realistic place bet now. Hope he runs!
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All systems go as far as I am aware. I think he would have to be ill/injured not to run now we've spent 20 grand for the priveledge...
Good luck. BBC |
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Exposed by some very good opposition but you did beat Faugheen.
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A very solid run on the ground thanks sageform. Just after two out I was getting a little excited-they just ran away from him in the ground. Far from disgraced and beat The Kingwell oppo further this time.
Watch out for him in a 1M 4F maiden on the flat sometime in the not too distant future.... |
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Bet you wish he was in the 2.30 at Meydan today.
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I'm not sure what Alan is thinking sageform, but I presume he's aiming for the top end of the market, so possibly Cup races?
No point in him running in 0-70's on the flat-I think he can still improve over hurdles and especially on better ground. |
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A 16k maiden against a bunch of moderate horses would have been a nice start though
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It would have been of course. Something a little more modest probably to start with.
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ELGIN engaged at Wolverhampton on Saturday at 8.30 in a 1M4F flat maiden.
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A very promising run from ELGIN last night. I have to say with a better ride he could have been even closer, and giving 20lbs to two decent three year olds may not be a bad run after all.
This running of the horse on the flat has not been without its critics. Those of us who have been in the club for a while remember the very useful DANCING BAY (trained by Nicky Henderson)who was rated 145 over hurdles and 116 on the flat. Indeed he got to within 6L of Westerner in the French Gold Cup. He was pretty useful. |
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I was slightly disappointed but the link between flat and hurdle form has never been strong. As you say, the 3yo's could have been useful and Elgin will be better on a galloping turf track.
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I think the plan is Chelmsford next week.....TBC of course.
I think Alan fully expects him to wain a maiden at least. |
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Great effort by Judicial today. Just got lonely close home.
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Yes thanks sageform. He was a little unlucky. That would have been a decent family double! He'll improve for that a bit as well. He's in the Kings Stand and the only option before that may be the Temple.
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Elgin runs again at Chelmsford tomorrow night. He has an obvious chance I would think.
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Not really a test but worth getting experience on the flat. He would be interesting in a 14 furlong handicap now.
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sageform of course he needs another run to get a mark. I think that currently he'd be around 85. The only other alternative is not to go the handicap route of course....
He will be spending a month in a field at some point so we could do that now and potentially go down the Cup route, or find another novice and get him handicapped and put him away for something a bit later on. If there is a definitive plan, we've not been told. Yet. |
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Isn't a win and a place enough for a handicap mark these days? If I may be so bold, his first run didn't scream cup races but I know he has to learn a new job. I think that he will always be best on a long straight and easy bends type of course.
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Not now sageform. Three runs to get a handicap mark. Gives the handicapper a better chance to assess a horse accurately. You can kind of see the point. How many Stoute/Gosden/O'Brien maidens end up being handicapped because of who trains them rather than what they've achieved?
It works both ways of course. |
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Yes, I had forgotten that. Hence the need for more novice races.
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Yep, that's it. It will be interesting to see how they approach this. Another novice or conditions race to get a mark, or put him away to go for something better.
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The Ebor has been mentioned! He will have to win a decent novice or at least place in a listed to get enough weight to get in there. The problem is the lack of races above 12 furlongs that would give that sort of rating (last year lowest rating was 101).
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Hi sageform-yes I saw Alan mentioned it on RUK at the weekend. I'd be surprised because not only would he need to be rated 100+, but the Ebor is usually run on fast ground. He's not a horse we'd want to run on fast ground.
Top Tug (also with AK) is also going for Royal Ascot with the Ebor as a long term target too, so it doesn't make a lot of sense. |
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With the big danger out, Elgin should have another exercise gallop at Catterick so we will be none the wiser about his flat ability.
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The second might be quite useful so not a bad work out.
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It was another easy win as you say sageform. So what's his mark going to be? He beat a 88 rated horse easily giving him 7lb. He'ss going to be rated between 95-100 I think. If not more.
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Trainer has said his target will be 'one of the big middle distance summer handicaps'. Ebor was mentioned previously.
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100 would be harsh on the bare form but he did look to have a lot in hand. That would get him into the Ebor if that is the target.
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I think 100 would be harsh too, but he easily beat a 88 rated horse giving him 7lb.
The Ebor is run on fast ground most years, and I'm not sure that's ideal. He needs a break too. The Champion Hurdle in 2019 remains a priority. |
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The 12 furlong handicap at Royal Ascot would not seem a bad shout if he is still OK, then a break until the autumn.
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Top Tug may go for the Ascot Handicap or straight to the Plate.
Ebor for Elgin I think. He should get in of 101. |
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Top Tug is going for the Ascot handicap-he's been left unchanged on 105.
AK expected Elgin to get a mid 90's rating but he got 101 instead. I think that's workable. |
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Good luck today with Judicial. A bit unlucky last time.
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