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proxygene
07 Dec 16 22:42
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Date Joined: 24 Feb 12
| Topic/replies: 440 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
An indicator of chances of making a sales profit can be obtained by comparing medians to stud fee. If filly and colt yearling sales medians are used, adjusted for first season drop off and number of buy backs and cost of production added in and then compared to the coming seasons stud fee a ratio can be derived. If a mare is appropriate to such stallion a factor of >1 suggests at least a 50% chance of making a profit. This years table of stallions with >5 yearling sales in Ireland and Britain looks like this:-

7.23        Sir Percy
4.23        Al Kazeem
3.2        Kyllachy
2.96        Dansili
2.86        Iffraaj
2.86        Power
2.71        Dubawi
2.64        Raven'S Pass
2.61        Frankel
2.35        Epaulette
2.03        Bated Breath
1.99        New Approach
1.88        Helmet
1.79        Intello
1.79        Shamardal
1.76        Nathaniel
1.75        Lethal Force
1.69        Mayson
1.65        Fastnet Rock
1.56        Invincible Spirit
1.56        Swiss Spirit
1.56        Mastercraftsman
1.52        Holy Roman Emperor
1.48        Dutch Art
1.48        Lawman
1.45        Oasis Dream
1.39        Exceed And Excel
1.39        Camelot
1.36        Red Jazz
1.32        Dark Angel
1.3        Acclamation
1.28        Equiano
1.28        Havana Gold
1.27        Sepoy
1.26        Footstepsinthesand
1.2        Farhh
1.13        Dawn Approach
1.11        Most Improved
1.09        Harbour Watch
1.08        Dragon Pulse
1.08        Kodiac
1.05        Camacho
1.04        Poet'S Voice
1.03        Teofilo
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Report yer ma December 8, 2016 12:53 PM GMT
Absolutely fair play to you for producing these numbers but I've no idea how you derived them.  The rankings in fact seem rather bizarre but happy to have them explained.    Sir Percy had 10 of his 20 yearlings sell for 16k or less.  To me thats round about break even for him so if you extrapolate forward that way, he is a 50/50 shot.  A few in the profit column making x10+ fee is irrelevant to 'likelihood of profitablility' its more to do with potential scale of profit.
Report proxygene December 8, 2016 1:21 PM GMT
The easiest data to harvest was from the RP  table of yearling sales stats (GB+Ire). They have separated colts and filly sales with their respective medians etc so my table is a bit of amalgamation and adjustment. Sir P's colts had a median of £60k with all 13 selling, 6 out of 7 fillies sold and had a median of 16K.

It has it's flaws and apparent anomalies especially if only colts show up at a sale for a particular stallion, and also if there is a fair gap in the middle as with Sir Percy, where one less cheaply sold yearling would have bumped the overall median much higher.
Report potentialmillionaire December 8, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
Lies, damn lies, proxy!

I think by the time you select the sires within budget, select the sires physically compatible, distance compatible, temperament compatible and pedigree compatible the list is so darn small you can afford and indeed need to analyse sales further than a median probably!
Report Formtwist December 8, 2016 8:01 PM GMT
To me, historical sales statistics are positively dangerous in deciding now the matings that will be yearlings of autumn 2019. So much comes down to making sure you have a good mare, with a page, winning family and a correct good-looker. Then, aside from all PotM accurately describes is trying not to be in the lower half of a stallion's book whilst giving the mare a fair chance of quality produce. I consider the sales aspect but first and foremost is breeding good sound winners.
Report proxygene December 8, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
I originally performed such calculations not for reason of table construction but to have an idea of overpricing and opportunity.  For example, Kyllachy consistently outsells his stud fee and yes the wheels may come off any minute now but so far they haven't. Again it's down to supply and demand, and this is just another tool as are any raw sales stats.

And then I compile their astrological charts and length of ear compatability...
Report Formtwist December 8, 2016 11:29 PM GMT
Ah, now that would be very handy. I look forward to the astrological charts of Sir Percy etc. being the next bit of information from the bunker. The wise men of the east and all that, very appropriate!
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