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zygote
06 Dec 16 21:12
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Date Joined: 14 Aug 03
| Topic/replies: 418 | Blogger: zygote's blog
Imho, the 2,000,000 gns paid by Coolmore last week for the FOURTEEN year old mare Hazariya was plain crazy. No way could this be considered a sound investment, as I am sure time will tell. Discuss.

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Replies: 6
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 06 Dec 16 21:35
Well Zygote, I don't think people would necessarily say there wasn't a large degree of a gamble involved but a criminal waste of money?

This is a game of a gamble at every turn and I am not sure this is any different to so many of the others.

Hazariya is a well bred mare with a very good pedigree and she is the dam of 4'stakes horses.

There are 26 stakes horses under the first 3 dams which is very respectable and makes for a very visually attractive and commercial page. Just the type of pedigree for which people will pay dearly for any fillies she might produce in the time she has left.
Harzand himself appears to be quite a good looking horse and he is by a stallion who is very useful but some way inferior to his half brother Galileo - as of course is every other stallion at stud today.
If I owned Galileo and therefore had free and unfettered access to him she would be an absolute must for the type of mare I wished to send him and I too would go hard to acquire her. Remember they probably only have to sell four nominations to Galileo to get her paid for.
It's a crazy world and sure she might drop dead tomorrow but if I had to shell out 2million for a yearling colt or 2m for Hazariya I know which way I'd turn.

Please don't say too much more about how crazy our game is - we know, but it doesn't do to remind anyone TOO often!
By:
zygote
When: 09 Dec 16 14:25
Interesting comment, potmill! If I had 2m (!) to invest in bloodstock, I would definitely avoid elderly mares. Not much upside when they get to 14+, imo. By the by, POLLY'S MARK is a good example of the type I like. Snapped up for a bargain 105k, and her first two foals sold for 650k and 700k.
By:
Big Black Cat
When: 09 Dec 16 15:23
I think that's an excellent piece of business to get G2M for a 14 year old mare.

Very much cashing in on the moment!  I think they pretty much said that themselves!?

Coolmore are happy.  HH is happy. Everyone's a winner!
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 09 Dec 16 16:55
I agree Zygote, often not much upside with an older mare.

Hazariya though is not just any old mare and her 3 yo is the current Derby winner and her 2 yo is well thought of so she might not be finished yet.

It is indeed a statistical fact that most mares do their best work early, but rather like the other thread on here currently vexing me, you can throw a great many stats my way but if you are going to let them influence you beyond cold hard analysis of the most pertinent facts in front of you then beware.

Big players can play percentages. Little people have to get it right!
By:
kincsem
When: 09 Dec 16 23:36
Coolmore are probably hoping for a few fillies from her that will be good producers in the future.

I think that stat about mares producing their best foals early is doubtful.  The study I saw had a very small data sample.
My guess is owners send their mare to higher cost stallions early and to cheaper stallions later i.e full of hope early, then disappointment later (but I'll test this in the next few months).
By:
neill d
When: 10 Dec 16 00:43
Hoping for fillies for sure, Harzand is the most painfully uncool Derby winner ever, worse than Ruler of the World. Half-brother to Harzand won't do much for them.

Weld threw that horse under the bus commercially to make sure the world knew that he was a genius trainer to coax a derby from him. All this talk of leger, needing 12f and soft ground, probably not going handle Epsom; could you do a worse job to promote a potential stallion?
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