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potentialmillionaire
08 Oct 16 16:59
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Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,671 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
By gum there's some reductions required.

Any stallion standing over 50k that doesn't flood the track with stakes performers year in year out needs to take a dive. You know who you are Banstead Manor. 70/80/100 grand fees are strictly for the megastars now and elderly stallions whose fees go up and down like a tarts draws need to come down and stay down a la Pivotal and Royal Applause.

The upside is proving more and more hard to hit and can no longer be relied upon to fund a ridiculously expensive downside.

And for those of us that remember the damage done to Kheleyf, Mark Of Esteem, Halling and the likes by making them the whipping boys for a Deal with Darley, the Club looks oh so familiar. . .
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Report truehoncho October 8, 2016 6:34 PM BST
I only wish I mixed in those circles PotM and could moan about paying such prices. Personally I have a feeling that you will need to be more competitive in every range next year. Couldn't agree more about Dansili etc and I think they will suffer more as J support Kingman and Frankel with their best mares (I thought they were packing it in).  I think all 3rd and 4th season stallions should all be 1/2 1st year price with a free return for a filly.After saying all that I think it has been a good year for the 2yo's and there are lots of nicely bred one's to eventually make the stallion ranks and improve options at all ranges.
Report Big Black Cat October 8, 2016 7:00 PM BST
I think I know the answer to this one already, but I don't suppose there's much chance of Frankel's fee coming down this year?

No G1 winner in his first crop (so far)
Group winners exposed at the top level (so far)
Lots of maiden winners however, pretty good strike rate to be fair
But doesn't look like his progeny progress as expected(although he was a quite late maturing horse himself)?

So will this be driven by the market or not?  I can't imagine that Prince Khalid won't be sending another boatload of his best mares, but if Teddy gave you a buzz and said 'yep he's still £125K and open if you want him', would you politely decline as that seems a tad expensive (assuming you have the £125K in the first place?)

Apologies for being a simpleton, but humour me gentlemen GrinGrin
Report potentialmillionaire October 8, 2016 7:58 PM BST
Truehonch, I'm hoping for the trickle down effect here so pressure at the upper middle levels wil suppress prices all the way down to us. I definitely agree that the difficult years need big incentives. I am not sure that anybody needs to feel ashamed about offering sweeteners in years 3 /4&5 we all no how it works and it's just the reality as it is.

Problem is BBC the market doesn't really reflect your slightly downward opinion of the commencement of Frankel, so no his fee won't come down.
I think there's a good chance it won't go up though.
Report Formtwist October 8, 2016 9:11 PM BST
I do find this a difficult subject,at all levels of the market. We need variety of bloodlines, and plenty of choice, but stallions cost a great deal to buy, advertise, and keep. The rocketing upward of fees on initial track success often results in long-term overpricing, mitigated by quiet discounting to non-shareholders. The rock bottom 'pile them high and sell it cheap' just results in overproduction and unsaleable stock. I wish all would follow Shadwell's example with Muhaarar, fair fee so they could select the mares they want with a set upper limit. I say that as a disinterested party as I had no mare they would have wanted!
Report truehoncho October 8, 2016 9:19 PM BST
I am concerned that everybody starts buying into the OPEC values of producing horses. Restricting production to maintain prices only benefits the established and well financed producers.
Report neill d October 8, 2016 11:26 PM BST
I can't remember the last decent horse by Pivitol or Dansili, they might be there recently, but I can't remember them.
Report Big Black Cat October 8, 2016 11:38 PM BST
I think, PM, if Frankel's fee was to rise from its lofty perch, Teddy may have to don a mask and change his name to Turpin....
Report Johnny_Mustang October 9, 2016 7:47 AM BST
I wouldn't be worried about Frankel, he'll stay the same I'd say. But if he looked left or right out of his barn he'd see one of his inmates looking sheepish in the knowledge that his 60-odd GB & Ire runners this year have between them brought home less money than ten times his nomination fee. And his 200+ European runners have won just over £1.1m total.
Report potentialmillionaire October 9, 2016 9:23 AM BST
There can be no such thing as a quiet year for a stallion that wishes to charge 50k plus I'm afraid.

Oasis and Dansili you're under achieving, there I've named names.
You too New Approach and at 100k for you Invincible Spirit I want superstars not just a lot of 110rated soldiers and an AEI of 1.50
Stallions are very expensive to acquire Formtwist but when the fees they can garner drop so will the amount required to source them.
As for what they cost to keep, well I reckon by the time my scrubby mares have had all their swabs, bloods, palpations and boarding, transports etc etc etc I reckon they cost more than a stallion and his bucket of oats and a bit of baby oil for his tail on a show day.
Report truehoncho October 9, 2016 1:24 PM BST
I like this new PotM. Soon he will be demanding that 5k stallions should be 3k and asking me around for tea!!
Report Big Black Cat October 9, 2016 1:49 PM BST
I think Juddmonte seem to be under a bit of pressure by the look of it. I have no doubt you are correct PM that Oasis dream and Dansili are underperforming with their hefty price tags.

Frankel, despite all of the hype, has produced nothing so far that has proven group form that would indicate a classic horse next year.

This has a whiff of Dancing Brave about it for them.  Outstanding racehorse.  Incredible performances on the racetrack making some top class horses look like trees with that incredible burst of speed, but about 3 top class horses when he retired to stud.

I know they all look great in the ring but......that doesn't win races.....

As for Mr magnier and the Coolmore lads-well maybe they want to have a couple just to see what Aiden thinks....he's not a bad judge, and if they are a bit average then, they can just open up a few more nominations to Frankels dad....I'm sure they'll fill them :-)
Report truehoncho October 9, 2016 2:18 PM BST
I think Juddmonte are simply a victim of their own success.Some great stallions but not enough good mares to support them all. They use Galileo as well for the likes of Midday when their other stallions could have benefited from her. On top of that they are not expanding their broodmare band to attempt to support them as they are pacing it in.
Report Big Black Cat October 9, 2016 2:22 PM BST
Do we know what proportion of nominations are available for everyone else after they've sent all their own mares truehoncho?
Report truehoncho October 9, 2016 5:14 PM BST
Sorry BBC, I don't know.
Report Formtwist October 9, 2016 5:38 PM BST
Just an observation, but Oasis Dream and Dansili progeny tend to shine when the sun does too, preferring it seems to me much quicker ground than has prevailed this year. At the end of the day this is a free market, and if they are too expensive, they won't get the numbers. As they get older and less fashionable that will happen anyway whatever the fee. Did it help Sakhee and Nayef that Shadwell did the decent thing years ago and made them affordable in the 5k market? I doubt it. Juddmonte have issues with their owner's future and I don't see that reducing their fees will help greatly with that. Frankel hasn't disappointed the public or the trainers, and he is never going to get one like himself, but it's Kingman that Juddmonte really need to succeed.
Report Johnny_Mustang October 13, 2016 7:16 AM BST
Shadwell fees will be unchanged at 30K, 7K & 5K.
Report potentialmillionaire October 13, 2016 10:25 AM BST
Fair fees remaining so. Shadwell have so much more class than some other operations one could mention. Thanks for the heads up JM.
Now, at Tatts yesterday the gossip was that Dandy Man has been sold.
I can not vouch for reliability and indeed it might be incorrect or old news.

Any knowledge out there? Has he earned a promotion or a trip somewhere hot as Prima Donna always puts it?

Am I talking b0ll0cks?
Report Johnny_Mustang October 13, 2016 4:59 PM BST
Oooh, hadn't heard anything about Dandy Man as yet. Meanwhile, in sunny ****shire you can go to the sire of a 2016 Guineas winner for the same price as last year or his ever-so-busy-in-2016 barnmate for a reduced fee of 5K.
Report potentialmillionaire October 13, 2016 5:40 PM BST
Well good on them for dropping Rope Inlet and as for Chico Girl, well I think they'll have to be dealing!

We need wrong year stallions to be reduced, without shame, to keep them, viable for all concerned.
Report truehoncho October 13, 2016 11:24 PM BST
I was hoping Mukhadram may have slipped to £5k in his 3rd season but I'm sure they will fill him at £7k. Hellvelyn may be worth a punt at under £3k. I remember seeing quite a few of his foals a couple of years ago and they looked nice. I also think Champs Elysees is very proven now and with an easing from his £8k he could be good value.
Report Johnny_Mustang October 17, 2016 5:12 PM BST
Dandy Man staying put.
Report potentialmillionaire October 17, 2016 5:15 PM BST
And I need the same ownership JM?

Is there not a single element of my scurrilous gossip that rings true?
Report Johnny_Mustang October 17, 2016 5:29 PM BST
Umm, unless I'm being thick PotM (say nothing!), I don't think much has changed although I don't know about the ownership aspect.

Gregorian 4.5K
Marcel 5K
Toronado 15K

Doesn't look like Dick Turpin has made the cut (but I could be being thick once again).
Report potentialmillionaire November 2, 2016 4:29 PM GMT
Say what you like about Coolmore, ok not you the Gotchee, we've heard it, but they've jumped in, again, with some sexy sires at the right price.
They are not afraid of dropping prices or indeed putting them up, but there is value there even allowing for the politics of who does or doesn't go shopping for their  stock.
They'll get my custom again I think, although it's early days.
Report truehoncho November 2, 2016 4:50 PM GMT
I wish I had something worth sending over. I 100% agree PotM
Report Posh Paddy November 5, 2016 6:52 PM GMT
Report Johnny_Mustang November 8, 2016 1:34 PM GMT
Kodiac up to 50K, Sir Prancealot 8k and Vadamos 10K
Report potentialmillionaire November 8, 2016 1:45 PM GMT
Thank you JohnnyM, in the vanguard for whispers and fact as ever.
Kodiac is an odd one isn't he. He's still improving but they don't seem brave enough to hike the fee, I don't quite know what to think.
Are people getting a bit miffed that they can be difficult to have arou or that they don't always train on?
Report Johnny_Mustang November 8, 2016 1:49 PM GMT
I'm with you PotM about Kodiac and his increase seems conservative. I thought he'd be 60K minimum next season so what do I know. Vadamos on the other hand.......
Report potentialmillionaire November 8, 2016 2:14 PM GMT
Not to mention that then they could stop covering such obscenely sized books. . .
Report Formtwist November 8, 2016 2:57 PM GMT
Dutch Art a sizeable reduction as you wished for such a sire with a quiet year, PotM.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 8, 2016 3:12 PM GMT
Everything at Rathasker standing at 5k with exception of 8k Clodovil.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 8, 2016 3:44 PM GMT
Sea The Stars and Born To Sea remain unchanged at 125k & 10k respectively. Harzand is 15k, Dariyan 8K, Siyouni 45K.
Report proxygene November 10, 2016 8:18 AM GMT
Is it just Juddmonte left to announce their fees?

There must be quite protracted discussions going on?
Report potentialmillionaire November 10, 2016 10:25 AM GMT
My thoughts too Proxy. It's a good job they didn't go earlier because a breeders cup victory always needs factoring in but it does seem that they have some very tricky decisions this year. I think Frankel is probably the easiest as it happens.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 10, 2016 12:33 PM GMT
Ballylinch too.
Report Formtwist November 10, 2016 5:05 PM GMT
Wonder if Juddmonte are thinking of another addition to the roster. Time Test perhaps?
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