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truehoncho
17 Sep 16 00:02
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Date Joined: 11 Dec 10
| Topic/replies: 4,414 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
I don't know how he will be accepted but Lanwades do try to be different. I really like their approach and I don't think commercial considerations are foremost in their thoughts. I hope they smash the ball out of the park.
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Report potentialmillionaire September 17, 2016 10:10 AM BST
I'm glad you've got this one going truehonch, as it is certainly an interesting development.

I like this horse on lots of levels but ultimately until I've clapped eyes on him I'm not going to do too much soul searching.
Would he not have looked better in the photo with the far hind a little further back?

Lanwades are for sure keen on doing something different, but unfortunately different never commands top dollar yet they always seem enthusiastic to charge it. I fear the Ramseys might not be very opposed to that either, but I would implore that a modest fee and a good sized book would surely suit the horse so much more than the 'well he is a breeders cup winner' fee that I fear they will trot out.

I think Miss Rausing attracts these horses by exciting their owners that she will charge a decent fee and support them well into the bargain. Her support is worth having for sure but I think a full book plus her support is the real winning ticket.

The LeroiSeeTheNorthLi scenario is too well proven now and a just about full first season can in no way look pretty when you head off down the years 2,3 &4 road with a fee that has backed you into a corner at the off.
Report truehoncho September 17, 2016 10:25 AM BST
I agree about the price PotM. For me he should be competing with the likes of Outstrip etc but as you say they will try to move him up a bracket.
Report yer ma September 17, 2016 12:53 PM BST
Given the catastrophe they had last year you'd hope they would be keen to offer clients some value to get them back in the door.  However, I see this being 10k plus.  Looks aside, quite a lot to like and with a range of mares.
Report Formtwist September 17, 2016 8:08 PM BST
I too like the profile of the horse and his race videos. Apart from the Kitten's Joy raid on Royal Ascot Kevin Ryan had a nice debut winner at Ayr. Soft turf....

To be fair to Lanwades neither Sir Percy nor Aussie Rules were ever unreasonably priced,  nor I think Archipenko initially. They are additionally generous to clients loyal and supportive of them. They did indeed have a traumatic year with stallions which is the more reason to price this one realistically. It may be that another new boy will be filling the other vacancy in the next months.

Like Truehoncho I applaud the attitude of the stud toward breeding for racehorses rather than pure commercialism.
Report proxygene September 17, 2016 9:03 PM BST
Is an interesting prospect.

Not overly keen on his action but looks pretty effective in his races.

Might struggle to get a mating by numbers fix on him, and suspect he might be pitched into the non-cheap zone exploited by eg Roderic and Bated Breath where competition/supply is less intense.
Report Formtwist September 17, 2016 9:22 PM BST
Proxy, do translate for simpletons like me - what is a mating by numbers fix? From a fee perspective he is much superior to Outstrip and I'd be happy with a pitch around £6-7k. Ther is no future for a sire at that stud any cheaper with the mares he will get - and they don't want just any mare, which I suppose is part of the commercial appeal.
Report truehoncho September 17, 2016 9:57 PM BST
Personally I think £4.5k would be a good price for him. At that price he could get 120 mares and that's what this type of stallion needs. The mares that 6/7k will get him won't be that much better (if any) and the lower numbers would give him less of a chance. There will be Dark Angel's, Kodiak's, Exceed and Excell's, Invincible Spirit's all providing competition to 6/7k stallions next year and they will be more fashionable.
Report Formtwist September 17, 2016 10:43 PM BST
You may be right, but Lanwades won't play that game, which is why they often go left field with the sires. They might play it fourth season if needed, but the quality of their own mares and that of their core clientele justifies a different approach. In a way the posts we have made on other threads apply here. If you pay the higher fee and your mare justifies that then you stand the better chance of getting into foal and yearling sales that you want. The cheaper the mare and the cover, the harder it is to do that. The attitude of this stud is to be treasured, whether or not you have the right sort of mare or the inclination to use any of the sires. Independents with the money to invest in quality / oddball stallions and help them to succeed are rare. I'm not one to follow the herd, and whether I personally find a mare for him or not I acknowledge that this is a Group 1 horse from a recognisable bloodline that should suit a multiplicity of mares. There will be all sorts of fashionably sired lowly priced horses at other studs that get lots of mares, but I doubt Miss Rausing will lose much sleep over that.
Report proxygene September 17, 2016 10:58 PM BST
We dont have many El prados, and Forestrys in the UK let alone Kittens Joys racing so looking for affinities ie mating by numbers will lack local data to analyse.

Sea The Moon £15K, Leroi £14k so cant see it being £5 or 6K. I had thought Lanwades were not looking for large book sizes and priced accordingly. Sea The Moon got 132 mares this year and Sir Percy had 135 in a previous one so although they may be looking to save diversity in the GB breed deliberately restricting book sizes is not part of it. No other seasons produced books of over 100 though.

Generally a fair percentage of a Lanwades sire is taken up by Owner/Breeders so I think there is therefore a more restricted amount of offspring reaching the sales. Supply and demand means there is still room for profit, Aussie Rules excepted. Personally I would hope to not be one of 90 at the sales so I think BK would have to be on my list.
Report proxygene September 17, 2016 11:03 PM BST
Cross post, but I maintain there is a bit of a void in the 6-12K fee range, hence the reference to Roderic taking an opportunity at a fee that ought to be beyond him. BK would fit in there nicely.
Report potentialmillionaire September 18, 2016 9:30 AM BST
Glad the juices are flowing.

I think this horse should stand at 8.

There I've said it.

I think though, that I have no idea of where they'll pitch it. Anywhere between 7and15 I guess.

This is such a strange industry as I comment on regularly, in as much as those misguided fools amongst us who are in it to make money are competing against a massive percentage of players who are not.
Is there any other industry with a similar set up?

Those folks who are in it to make money, but actually don't have to and will never go under, do like to pretend that they have a commercial remit though. To keep their family members/trustees/accountants/tax officials happy they like to value as if something is profitable when in all possibility it is not and I think that is what keeps something like Bobby's Kitten a little spacey.
The Ramsay's have done a great job with Kittens Joy but his fee always seems a little artificially high and the value they place on his stock often likewise.
the partners here should care about image because they are looking for outside mares and in this day and age image matters. Muddling along after a fashion with the type of stallion that will get to 14 or 15 without having made when good full books might have given a rosier complexion is really not a good look. Frankly the sale ring becomes an embarrassing occasion and knock on support for a new horse becomes depleted.

Lanwades have some good mares and some good clients but as I said earlier you need more than that if you are to prevent a year 2,3 and 4 stallion dropping off a cliff. Good mares spring up from anywhere and despite those 10 extras attracted by a manageable fee not always looking too promising, they will include one or two that could make the difference.
Report Posh Paddy September 18, 2016 12:38 PM BST
Going to use my normal formula of taking the figure he probably should stand at and add 5 which makes my guess £12.5

Hope I'm wrong on this and on my guesses on other threads
Report potentialmillionaire September 18, 2016 1:02 PM BST
A formula, ooh I love a formula.

Sounds like a good one too!
Report Formtwist September 18, 2016 2:58 PM BST
Have you adjusted for the euro / pound difference in that formula? Perhaps in the UK you should add 3 not 5 ?
Report Posh Paddy September 18, 2016 3:47 PM BST
I would only use 3 but with costs being higher in the UK I therefore have to factor in a higher amount for removing any hope of breaking even with a filly. Whoops
Report truehoncho September 18, 2016 5:10 PM BST
Wow, I really got this horse wrong. I thought he was a nicely bred colt (in my opinion, subjective I know) and an alternative to the run of the mill cheap(ish) commercial stallions. I agree with you Formtwist, they are a stud that are prepared to provide alternatives to the norm and that certainly should be applauded and supported where possible. But BK is not that far off the norm, a Northern Dancer line bred, and actually he wasn't really that good. He was well held in G1 and G2 company and an unexpected BC winner (Outstrip like). A G3 horse in my opinion. He should never be more than £5/6k and why would you expect him to breed better horses than other stallions in this price range. Just because it's a strange business PotM, I struggle to see why people would pay so much over the odds but I suppose if they can get it they should charge it.
Report potentialmillionaire September 18, 2016 7:46 PM BST
Truehonch I have just given Bobby's race record a bit more scrutiny and I agree it isn't particularly impressive.
It will be interesting to see if they do get really fruity with the fee  but luckily my original estimate was fairly wide and I think it will still cover it, hopefully at the low end too.
Report Johnny_Mustang October 5, 2016 7:13 AM BST
A bit of gossip for what it's worth (not usually too much in my case). I was talking with one of my US contacts yesterday who is very involved with Ken Ramsey. Apparently KR absolutely loves this horse and believes he will have the same level of success as Kitten's Joy and already has regrets about not standing the horse himself.
Report truehoncho October 6, 2016 12:40 AM BST
Thanks JM. I must admit I am fond of his pedigree. I pass there every day so maybe I should go and have a look at him. I am also toying with Sir Percy as a proven sire for a maiden I have.
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