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truehoncho
20 Aug 16 19:24
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Date Joined: 11 Dec 10
| Topic/replies: 4,337 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
All the signs are that the trend of good foals and yearlings fetching more money while the lesser ones fetching less and less will continue this year. Surely this will mean that 3rd seasoners and moderate first seasoners will be priced accordingly next year. Tatts are cutting back the foal sales to 4 days again so you may not even get a good looking moderately bred colt in the sale. I can't imagine horses like Due Diligence being good value at £6k next year, can you? My attitude will be 'if your not good enough to be worth £8/10k then your not worth more than £3k.
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Report potentialmillionaire August 20, 2016 8:23 PM BST
There are approximately 874 points that your post raises truehonch and I am not sure of remembering them all, any sort of coherence in cobbling together a reply, or indeed having any answers worth me putting finger to keyboard.

First thing that struck me was, is it necessarily fair to expect the stallion men to take the hit for the cheap foal?

Vet fees are so fecking enormous. Transport ditto, boarding costs, sales entries PlusbobisebfBCsaleslevy yaddayaddayadda are all a massive drain on the cheap yearling.

The Tatts initiative to support their new sale in Fairyhouse by restricting the December Foal catalogue is certainly a big conundrum. If the situation remains similar going forward then it will be all too easy for them to make their decisions based on stud fees before investigating further and where does the 2k stud fee leave you then? Might we be better paying an inflated fee just to get the resulting produce in the sale?
I have a friend battling to get a nice Bay Colt by Coach House in at the moment, which as we know can be a totally erroneous approach as Swiss Spirit proved last time around.

Anyway hopefully I might remember more thoughts if prompted by other posters.
Report truehoncho August 21, 2016 3:01 PM BST
Hi PotM, tell your friend I'm having the same problem with a lovely bay colt by Heeraat (probably the best I've had). I don't see why they are not just adding days to the foal sale. Why just not split them and have a book 1 and 2 type thing. I hope Doncaster (Goffs whatever)stick a 1/2 day on to their November sale for foals.

Vets bills, ouch! I think it's the one area the TBA could get involved in and try and get some package for members, especially outside the big breeding areas where vets bills seem to be more.

I am more than happy to hold on to them as yearlings or race as 2yo's so the foal issue isn't massive for me. I realise the stallion keepers need make a living too, but I do think they are overvaluing their horses. Still, I suppose if people will pay it then there isn't much room for argument.
Report potentialmillionaire August 21, 2016 6:21 PM BST
I am sure a lot of Tatts logic is about getting the lesser irish vendors to support the new Fairyhouse foal sale.
I would have thought that with the 'new' exchange rate that ought not to be a forlorn hope.

I would love Doncaster to reinstate a foal/breeding stock sale that enabled a secondhand market for lesser mares.
I keep hold of my mares for too long and the costs at Tatts are then too prohibitive and the galaxy of foreign buyers too unpalatable in my eyes for a sale there.
Nice small northern breeders looking out for a bit of value I would be happier to sell old favourites to.

Cloud cuckoo land I am inhabiting once agai I fear!
Report yer ma August 22, 2016 11:57 AM BST
As PotM said, there are a host of issues with the foal market (and lower end yearling market).  A blindingly obvious suggestion (which wont happen) is Tatts / Goffs should charge less fees / commission for fillies, and BHA boost across the board prizemoney and races for fillies.  The top of the market doesnt give a hoot about day to day prizemoney so complaints about there only being so much of a pot to go round are spurious.   Moderate colts by never should have been a stallion stallions I've not go that much sympathy for.  Not getting enough for a decent colt by a decent stallion because the middle market has shrunk IS a concern.

At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, if you look at Tues last year its dominated by English vendors so can't see it being to turn Irish away - also surely the strong Euro means Tatts will be stronger with irish pinhookers having money go further.

I didnt know they were already filtering foals - I've not even entered mine yet.
Report Posh Paddy August 22, 2016 3:46 PM BST
The bottom of the market has got very selective.

By all accounts a number of pinhookers fingers were seriously burned after overpaying at the foal sales in 2014.  Even more so than before they are all hovering over the same horses and are not prepared to consider much outside the box.

Trying to make money as a breeder at that end of the market particularly using UK stallions must be getting near on impossible.

Mind you it's getting harder and harder to find affordable proven commercial stallions in Europe - Kodiac, Dark Angel, Showcasing are too expensive for the bottom end.

Even using a first season commercial sire is getting harder - Gutaifan fully booked by November last year.

More and more I think people will have to pour over the return on mares to find out what a stallion has coming down the track and get on something cool that may get a little hotter as better crops get to the track - Dandy Man & Camacho have been tipped up already.

Failing that then the old adage applies, if you can't beat them join them as I can't see the likes of Equiano, Sir Percy or Kyllachy being dropped to £4K.
Report Formtwist August 22, 2016 8:39 PM BST
We aren't owed a living that's for sure, but it doesn't help when the sales companies look only at pedigrees. I get the impression that Tatts have decided the foal sale will be so far as possible be foals which are expected to be Book 1 or 2 yearlings. The rest are "encouraged" toward the February sale as short yearlings. There is certainly now an opportunity for Goffs UK to offer some competition in the foal / broodmare market
Report truehoncho August 22, 2016 10:00 PM BST
I agree with you Formtwist. At least go and have a look at the foal before you filter them. Its all very well saying you have no sympathy with the bottom end market but the whole essence of foal sales is to give a pinhooker opportunity. What's the point of a scrawny filly by some £10k stallion if someone has a nice looking Coach House colt etc. In reality do you think they will be turning away Cheveley Park filly foals even if they are by Garswood or Mason? It will inevitably turn elitist and it is flawed. ffs put an extra day on and then if you have to pay for the sale and take your foal home it's your own fault.
Report potentialmillionaire August 23, 2016 9:39 PM BST

Aug 22, 2016 -- 4:00PM, truehoncho wrote:


I agree with you Formtwist. At least go and have a look at the foal before you filter them. Its all very well saying you have no sympathy with the bottom end market but the whole essence of foal sales is to give a pinhooker opportunity. What's the point of a scrawny filly by some £10k stallion if someone has a nice looking Coach House colt etc. In reality do you think they will be turning away Cheveley Park filly foals even if they are by Garswood or Mason? It will inevitably turn elitist and it is flawed. ffs put an extra day on and then if you have to pay for the sale and take your foal home it's your own fault.


Well truehonch, I thank you for raising a topic that has triggered some rounds of fire!

A brief look at day 1 at Donny doesn't seem too bad but I haven't investigated the pinhooking stats yet.

I think that if the sales companies didn't actively descriminate against fillies it would be a good place to start.
There is no chance of them ever making commission concessions for fillies, when with perhaps the exception of Tatts part 1 they make up their sales with a disproportionate ratio colts to fillies, presumably to bolster their commission. If there were fewer colts in a sale isn't there a chance that the under supply of colts could get a few more fillies sold?

I do think that Tatts have a right to protect their biggest and most regular vendors just as we expect a level of loyalty from anyone that supplies us with any sort of product really. But it does make problems for the smaller/newer vendor if they aren't going to inspect foals. I wonder just how many foals they are going to need to weed out to fulfill their stated 4day aim.

As for which way we should be heading Posh (nice to hear from you by the way!) it is a conundrum.
I have stuck a couple of expensive matings on what I hope are my most reliable mares in the last two years precisely because the old faithfulls  are too expensive. Now it appears a Swiss Spirit type gamble might not get us into a sale even though he might be the next hot cookie, but a Kyllachy equivalent will often be a bit tired for the market. So I find myself over doing it in an attempt to be up to date and sexy.
Whatever happens, I trust we can agree to keep in touch from the debtors prison!

All well with your pinhook Posh?
Are you in the sale you hoped to be?

Report potentialmillionaire August 23, 2016 9:40 PM BST
I didn't mean to superimpose that box incidentally. I certainly couldn't repeat the feat. . . .
Report Posh Paddy August 24, 2016 5:04 PM BST
Hi PM

I suppose I had gone MIA but for the only reason that I had nothing worthwhile to add on any other threads. I do check the forum reasonably often.

This years pinhook seems to be going a lot better than last years (wouldn't be difficult - although I have taken some small comfort that she at least is a racehorse and has placed twice including today at Lingfield albeit off a lowly mark of just 48).

This years offering's Sire is doing ok with a couple of 2yo black type winners this year and couple more in the pipeline, a half sister won at 2 and physically he looks the part (think Sherman Tank) so I am more hopeful of maybe breaking even this time.

I have got into my preferred sale - Part 1 of the Sportsman and am happy with my slot around 50 odd lots in.

I trust you are well and look forward to seeing you tearing up the Tatts Foal sales again - a la your hat-trick of 2014.

As to the problem in hand TH, have you considered sending your foals to Ireland to sell?  After Brexit the Euro is currently 14% stronger against Sterling than 12 months ago.  I know it will cost more in transport and is far from ideal but a least you are getting into a sale and the Euro is not currently the poor relation it once was.
Report truehoncho August 25, 2016 8:28 PM BST
It seems Doncaster's silver sale has continued the trend. In truth, much of what was offered wasn't very appealing and maybe vendors got the value of their stock. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a market for all grades of horses and all our geese can't be swans. If we can produce the foals at the right price then we can take advantage of the lower end of the market while we try to improve our stock. To do this we need more cheap stallions cheaper.
Report potentialmillionaire August 25, 2016 9:29 PM BST
I think I've found your yearling Posh as I think I worked it out last year from things you said.

They still seem happy with the sire don't they, which at this level of the market is so important. If he is a nice individual then I'll be cautiously optimistic on your behalf!

I'll be at the mercy of the sale in December as ever but I'll be surprising you on one front at least, though just this year not going forward..

Donny Silver did seem a bit scarey today TH., but I suppose at the lesser sales unless you are actually working it in some capacity it isn't really possible to judge whether a fair trade has materialised or not.
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