Bloodstock & Breeding
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Is that it for 2016
truehoncho
truehoncho 19 Nov 15 13:07 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Are there anymore 1st seasoners likely to emerge for next year, or will I have to work with whats on offer currently?
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Johnny_Mustang
Johnny_Mustang 19 Nov 15 13:57 Joined: 18 Feb 07 | Topic/replies: 8,780 | Blogger: Johnny_Mustang's blog
Did you notice Make Believe? I haven't seen a PR or any news story about him at Ballylinch next year.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 19 Nov 15 14:23 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
I did, but at E20k he is a little beyond me. There are a few studs in England (Mickley, Norton Grove etc) that haven't anything new. I was wondering what to expect from them.
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Formtwist
Formtwist 20 Nov 15 20:42 Joined: 26 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: Formtwist's blog
Now Mustajeeb to Overbury, but no doubt Truehoncho he'll be a couple of k too high a fee for your liking!
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truehoncho
truehoncho 21 Nov 15 01:44 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Formtwist. Actually I think he's one of the better priced ones. He ran in good company, won a G2 sprint and got a rating of 119. Unfortunately he wont suit either of the 2 mares I am looking for a stallion for. I will be going to Overbury so I might get a look at him.
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 27 Dec 15 18:02 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Hey true honcho did you ever get to Overbury to see Mustajeeb? If so what did you think to him and the other sires there.
Thanks in advance.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 27 Dec 15 18:10 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Theoneandonly,
I think it was Potm that was going to Overbury. I would also like to get the views of Potm especially on Fast Company and Cityscape
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 27 Dec 15 18:18 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Thanks very much, hopefullt Potm can update if they see this please.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 28 Dec 15 09:38 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Well theoneandonly, it's nice - and unusual - to be wanted!
Fast Company has a good commercial record and seeing him in the flesh it's not hard to see why. If he can just pull one or two out of the bag with a public profile he could be very useful to us. Obviously his record is there for all to see and he gets plenty of winners and I would guess that they have good temperaments which should keep him in favour with the smaller
commercial trainer.
I would be a bit cautious of a mare with dreadful feet as the quality of his is a bit lacking but the shape and size of them is good. The shape and size of him, ditto!
Mustajeeb has a way to go on the soundness front and I believe has an injury from being cast. His hind legs certInly have seen a lot of bandaging and don't look the best make and shape. He doesn't walk great, but I imagine that should improve slightly but he has a U.S look about him not unsurprisingly, so a loose and flowing action is unlikely. He's nearly correct and certainly passable on that front and overall I quite liked him and he remains on the list. Good temperament too I should imagine. I wouldn't like to say use, use , use, because I think he is a horse to give plenty of thought to from one's own perspective.
Fast Company is what you see in the picture and he is a horse, on type, I would recommend. You just need to make a call on his pedigree and record.
Cityscape is what he is. He has a profile that makes him tricky commercially but he has a race record and a pedigree.
If you can make that work for you then why not? For me as yet it's a big if.
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Wilycayote
Wilycayote 28 Dec 15 11:08 Joined: 31 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 311 | Blogger: Wilycayote's blog
I had a soft spot for Cityscape as a racehorse, but a median of £3,000 for his foal sales writes him off commercially I'm afraid.
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proxygene
proxygene 28 Dec 15 18:13 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Thanks PM thats 3 out of 4 on my shortlist reviewed, would you by any chance have seen Cable Bay yet. Ta,
I do plan to visit myself in Jan so only myself to blame in 2 years time but an early heads up always helps...
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truehoncho
truehoncho 29 Dec 15 09:49 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Thanks PotM. I Mustajeeb won't work for me but FC looks just right. I have been thinking about Cityscape and might give him a go with a mare that I think may suit him. Unless I have a great looking colt by him I will probably have to keep it but I think I'm ok with that. As Wily points out, his sales are poor so I probably will have to hold on to it but he was undeniably high class and trained on well. I'm not sure about that deal though. I would probably prefer £2.5k and leave it at that. Is that a cheeky offer?
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 29 Dec 15 20:46 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Thank you very much Potm your post was of great help.
I guess the Cityscape foals can't be impressing too many at the sales then? Is there anything in particular that are putting the buyers off?
Is there any website that shows a list of all the stallions and the amount of mares they got in foal, or is this solely down to the stud if they want to release this information?
I like Dandyman and think I would go for him if he was in England. There's quite a few options out there and wonder if there will be any more deals that come out, as I think the Outstrip one was really good.
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Formtwist
Formtwist 30 Dec 15 19:48 Joined: 26 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: Formtwist's blog
Proxygene, it might be a factor that I've been told that Cable Bay had some 130 mares booked by the end of November. Foal and yearling sales will be a bit hard to compete in as few will be owner breeders.
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proxygene
proxygene 30 Dec 15 21:52 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Thanks Formtwist, thought that might be the case, can't imagine my mare being sparkly enough to gazump anyone and my contrarian nature does rail against being one of 130 at the sales.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 31 Dec 15 02:19 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Seasons greetings Proxygene.
You have hit the nail on the head. My mares just can't compete unless they get a stonking looking colt. This is no reason to chuck it in, it just means I have to look elsewhere and get a little lucky. Mind you, when I do get that blacktype mare I will be kicking their door down.
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proxygene
proxygene 31 Dec 15 11:24 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Hi TrueHoncho, best wishes to you too. 2.19 AM last minute VAT return?
After a spectacular 2 filly no bids in the ring season my 2 mare operation (logic dictates) will be retreating to one mare, one way or another. Can't see that anything in the pipeline will alter that. It's obvious our bottom end of the market is where the squeeze is and having tried to push to one small step above that I realise that hasn't been the solution either, even allowing for breeder stubborness/ineptitude.
Will see what the foal fairy brings at the end of Jan then work out how deep the hole is...
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 02 Jan 16 14:24 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Proxy, I have seen Cable Bay and he is likeable. Not chocca full of quality but he is a commercial shape.
He is not the cleverest in front though I'm afraid, Charlie Chaplin springs to mind, so I think I'll probably give him a miss.
truehonch, I like the look of the Cityscapes in the Overbury brochure they look typey and athletic. However, if you get any faults then it will be easy to tar them with the 'needs time' brush and move on to the next big thing. His first foray into the sales ring suggest that the racecourse is where it will need to happen. As for a deal, well if memory serves, he is at least partly owned by overbury and partners so they should be able to have plenty of flexibility with a deal. Just ask, 'how low can you go'.!
Theoneandonly, what you really need is Return Of Mares from Weatherbys but you'll need to put your hand in your pocket.
Their Stallion Book also has a summary of foals and mares covered, by sire, in 2015.
I would imagine Cable Bay is still get innable and I would certainly want to be one of a load, when the sire is popular than one of few when not! Being contrary, does not get the bills paid and anything less than a nice Colt truehonch probably won't pay the Bills whoever's harem you descend upon.
Overproduction is with us for sure. We've got to be mighty astute - or not my case, lucky, if we're to defeat the chesnut fillies.
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proxygene
proxygene 02 Jan 16 15:07 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Theoneandonly page 95 has this years mares covered, last years is around somewhere online and if you have a specific request I've logged the previous 5 or 6 years of booksize too.
http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/Launch.aspx?EID=0e76f027-f157-4ec4-a327-6f6b17fa8397
Racing post bloodstock review
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 15:40 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Potm, Proxy et all,
I know how you feel Proxy, I had a filly last year that didn't sell and has cost me far more that she will ever repay in trainers fee's and the rest. I suppose this is the rub at this end of the market.
I am resigned to probably having to keep more in future which is why I am preferring to breed to something that I am optimistic about making a racehorse rather than a sales horse. I know that sounds a little arrogant but it's not meant that way. HIT sales are not the worst way to go, at least if you do breed something above average from a moderate pedigree you stand a chance of getting paid for it. Cityscape is growing on me for that reason.
By the way PotM the best I ever had was a chestnut filly that recently sold for USD150k at Keenland. I let her go cheap at the sales and I won't do that again in a hurry.
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proxygene
proxygene 02 Jan 16 17:31 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Hi Truehoncho,
No offence intended but I still haven't worked out if breeding is livelihood, project or pension plan for you (or all 3) I suppose one in training is a folly, a luxury or confidence respectively. I know you're a statistical cynic but if you want to PM me your mares names and location I can run them through the program. Make use how you wish, I just get a bit bored of running my same one(s) again and again, especially as Mrs P has banned restocking; joyless accountants. Regards.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 02 Jan 16 17:32 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Truehonch, your second example shows you are perhaps non too comfortable about other people making money out of your horses. I am not with you there as I am always happy for people to do that with mine as that makes them satisfied customers and unlike if I was to sell them a nice bag of apples when all I would perhaps get is them to repeat their custom, I get the plus an enhanced mare and any subsequent uplift that this brings.
Your first example shows the flip side as to why I am almost always happy to sell the lesser ones cheaply and let somebody else foot the bill for the subsequent disappointments!
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 17:59 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
I am more than happy for people to make money from my stock (as much as they can), but I have to make money as well. I bred and sold greyhounds for years (one to someone who had an excellent winner today at Sandown) and everybody made money from my dogs. Very often trainers made more from them than I did and I was more than happy with that for the reasons you stated PotM. The point I was trying to make was that I would rather back myself and keep them if I think they have potential than lose money on them. Sometimes if you're breeding just to sell you don't have that sort of confidence. Unfashionable breeding does not mean bad breeding and it often turns out the best horse.
As far as the filly costing me money, well that's just racing. It's a game of risk and reward. Sometimes the reward is not just about money.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 19:18 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Proxy,
sorry I didn't see your response before I responded to PotM. I breed racehorses for one reason and one reason only. To breed and own brilliant racehorses. Breeding top class racehorses is very very very hard. Breeding top class racehorses with the resources I have to hand is probably impossible. I realise I am probably going to fail, but God loves a tryer as they say.
I have no money, so I need to try and make the whole thing either pay for itself or at least contribute enough so that I can carry on trying. That is why I like this site so much. People like Potm who look at stallions and post their thoughts are invaluable.
I am not a statistical cynic, I studies post graduate calculus with Heinz Wolf at Brunel University and know the value of the maths. The thing for me is that horse racing and breeding has so many variables and spurious correlations that it can be more of a hindrance than a help. At the bottom end of this market it's about staying in the game long enough to give yourself a chance of getting very lucky and as I like it so much I don't mind the wait.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 06 Jan 16 09:20 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
I am not a statistical cynic, I studies post graduate calculus with Heinz Wolf at Brunel University and know the value of the maths. The thing for me is that horse racing and breeding has so many variables and spurious correlations that it can be more of a hindrance than a help. At the bottom end of this market it's about staying in the game long enough to give yourself a chance of getting very lucky and as I like it so much I don't mind the wait.
truehoncho, I couldn't have put it better myself - except the part about Brunel University, which not unsurprisingly I couldn't have 'put' atall!!
If I was down to three choices of stallion then I would every time use a pedigree system I trusted.
I also get great pleasure when a mating I have come up with meets approval with an expert like Proxygene
However with so many variables, not least budget, and what I have looking at me over the fence, the practical has to come first. and then I hope she who makes all the tough decisions, Lady Luck, will at least see that I tried!
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proxygene
proxygene 06 Jan 16 15:27 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Interestingly it still appears in your postings history
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proxygene
proxygene 08 Jan 16 18:28 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Will try and post this though perhaps the congniscenti might be the only ones to ever find it.
Expert no; investor/waster of possibly 10's of thousands of hours over 30 years starting with a Sinclair Spectrum yes.
There are two reasons for looking at nicking systems. The main one for me would be targeting disciples of them, surely increasing the breadth and intensity of a pool of potential buyers.
Secondly if they work or are believed to work. All systems have flaws, some are more glaring than others. The main ones I would quote would be incomplete data sets, cherry picking stakes horses and ignoring opportunity/frequency of such nicks, the use of earnings or percentage of BTW over ratings. Even sales stats can be misleading, I would always look to a sales median over an average that can be skewed too easily. The same would apply to racecourse earnings.
In the end I would guess that statistical 'help' might only contribute 5 to 10lbs but who wouldn't rather be involved with a 90 horse rather than an 80 (or even a 60 rather than 50). If that involved using one stallion over another (all other things being equal) then that's what I've been accumulating data for. I admit to using it as a starting point but would also attempt to avoid mistakes of conformation and saleability. Time will tell if the mistakes of the latter this year will ever allow replenishment of the pension pot in the future. If they can run I hope so, unless I've had to give away the dams before then.
Anyway, Best wishes to all forumites finding this 'dear diary' and send any spare luck my way please.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 19 Nov 15 13:07 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Are there anymore 1st seasoners likely to emerge for next year, or will I have to work with whats on offer currently?
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Johnny_Mustang
Johnny_Mustang 19 Nov 15 13:57 Joined: 18 Feb 07 | Topic/replies: 8,780 | Blogger: Johnny_Mustang's blog
Did you notice Make Believe? I haven't seen a PR or any news story about him at Ballylinch next year.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 19 Nov 15 14:23 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
I did, but at E20k he is a little beyond me. There are a few studs in England (Mickley, Norton Grove etc) that haven't anything new. I was wondering what to expect from them.
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Formtwist
Formtwist 20 Nov 15 20:42 Joined: 26 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: Formtwist's blog
Now Mustajeeb to Overbury, but no doubt Truehoncho he'll be a couple of k too high a fee for your liking!
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truehoncho
truehoncho 21 Nov 15 01:44 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Formtwist. Actually I think he's one of the better priced ones. He ran in good company, won a G2 sprint and got a rating of 119. Unfortunately he wont suit either of the 2 mares I am looking for a stallion for. I will be going to Overbury so I might get a look at him.
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 27 Dec 15 18:02 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Hey true honcho did you ever get to Overbury to see Mustajeeb? If so what did you think to him and the other sires there.
Thanks in advance.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 27 Dec 15 18:10 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Theoneandonly,
I think it was Potm that was going to Overbury. I would also like to get the views of Potm especially on Fast Company and Cityscape
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 27 Dec 15 18:18 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Thanks very much, hopefullt Potm can update if they see this please.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 28 Dec 15 09:38 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Well theoneandonly, it's nice - and unusual - to be wanted!
Fast Company has a good commercial record and seeing him in the flesh it's not hard to see why. If he can just pull one or two out of the bag with a public profile he could be very useful to us. Obviously his record is there for all to see and he gets plenty of winners and I would guess that they have good temperaments which should keep him in favour with the smaller
commercial trainer.
I would be a bit cautious of a mare with dreadful feet as the quality of his is a bit lacking but the shape and size of them is good. The shape and size of him, ditto!
Mustajeeb has a way to go on the soundness front and I believe has an injury from being cast. His hind legs certInly have seen a lot of bandaging and don't look the best make and shape. He doesn't walk great, but I imagine that should improve slightly but he has a U.S look about him not unsurprisingly, so a loose and flowing action is unlikely. He's nearly correct and certainly passable on that front and overall I quite liked him and he remains on the list. Good temperament too I should imagine. I wouldn't like to say use, use , use, because I think he is a horse to give plenty of thought to from one's own perspective.
Fast Company is what you see in the picture and he is a horse, on type, I would recommend. You just need to make a call on his pedigree and record.
Cityscape is what he is. He has a profile that makes him tricky commercially but he has a race record and a pedigree.
If you can make that work for you then why not? For me as yet it's a big if.
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Wilycayote
Wilycayote 28 Dec 15 11:08 Joined: 31 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 311 | Blogger: Wilycayote's blog
I had a soft spot for Cityscape as a racehorse, but a median of £3,000 for his foal sales writes him off commercially I'm afraid.
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proxygene
proxygene 28 Dec 15 18:13 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Thanks PM thats 3 out of 4 on my shortlist reviewed, would you by any chance have seen Cable Bay yet. Ta,
I do plan to visit myself in Jan so only myself to blame in 2 years time but an early heads up always helps...
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truehoncho
truehoncho 29 Dec 15 09:49 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Thanks PotM. I Mustajeeb won't work for me but FC looks just right. I have been thinking about Cityscape and might give him a go with a mare that I think may suit him. Unless I have a great looking colt by him I will probably have to keep it but I think I'm ok with that. As Wily points out, his sales are poor so I probably will have to hold on to it but he was undeniably high class and trained on well. I'm not sure about that deal though. I would probably prefer £2.5k and leave it at that. Is that a cheeky offer?
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Theoneandonly
Theoneandonly 29 Dec 15 20:46 Joined: 19 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: Theoneandonly's blog
Thank you very much Potm your post was of great help.
I guess the Cityscape foals can't be impressing too many at the sales then? Is there anything in particular that are putting the buyers off?
Is there any website that shows a list of all the stallions and the amount of mares they got in foal, or is this solely down to the stud if they want to release this information?
I like Dandyman and think I would go for him if he was in England. There's quite a few options out there and wonder if there will be any more deals that come out, as I think the Outstrip one was really good.
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Formtwist
Formtwist 30 Dec 15 19:48 Joined: 26 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: Formtwist's blog
Proxygene, it might be a factor that I've been told that Cable Bay had some 130 mares booked by the end of November. Foal and yearling sales will be a bit hard to compete in as few will be owner breeders.
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proxygene
proxygene 30 Dec 15 21:52 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Thanks Formtwist, thought that might be the case, can't imagine my mare being sparkly enough to gazump anyone and my contrarian nature does rail against being one of 130 at the sales.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 31 Dec 15 02:19 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Seasons greetings Proxygene.
You have hit the nail on the head. My mares just can't compete unless they get a stonking looking colt. This is no reason to chuck it in, it just means I have to look elsewhere and get a little lucky. Mind you, when I do get that blacktype mare I will be kicking their door down.
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proxygene
proxygene 31 Dec 15 11:24 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Hi TrueHoncho, best wishes to you too. 2.19 AM last minute VAT return?
After a spectacular 2 filly no bids in the ring season my 2 mare operation (logic dictates) will be retreating to one mare, one way or another. Can't see that anything in the pipeline will alter that. It's obvious our bottom end of the market is where the squeeze is and having tried to push to one small step above that I realise that hasn't been the solution either, even allowing for breeder stubborness/ineptitude.
Will see what the foal fairy brings at the end of Jan then work out how deep the hole is...
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 02 Jan 16 14:24 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Proxy, I have seen Cable Bay and he is likeable. Not chocca full of quality but he is a commercial shape.
He is not the cleverest in front though I'm afraid, Charlie Chaplin springs to mind, so I think I'll probably give him a miss.
truehonch, I like the look of the Cityscapes in the Overbury brochure they look typey and athletic. However, if you get any faults then it will be easy to tar them with the 'needs time' brush and move on to the next big thing. His first foray into the sales ring suggest that the racecourse is where it will need to happen. As for a deal, well if memory serves, he is at least partly owned by overbury and partners so they should be able to have plenty of flexibility with a deal. Just ask, 'how low can you go'.!
Theoneandonly, what you really need is Return Of Mares from Weatherbys but you'll need to put your hand in your pocket.
Their Stallion Book also has a summary of foals and mares covered, by sire, in 2015.
I would imagine Cable Bay is still get innable and I would certainly want to be one of a load, when the sire is popular than one of few when not! Being contrary, does not get the bills paid and anything less than a nice Colt truehonch probably won't pay the Bills whoever's harem you descend upon.
Overproduction is with us for sure. We've got to be mighty astute - or not my case, lucky, if we're to defeat the chesnut fillies.
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proxygene
proxygene 02 Jan 16 15:07 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Theoneandonly page 95 has this years mares covered, last years is around somewhere online and if you have a specific request I've logged the previous 5 or 6 years of booksize too.
http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/Launch.aspx?EID=0e76f027-f157-4ec4-a327-6f6b17fa8397
Racing post bloodstock review
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 15:40 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Potm, Proxy et all,
I know how you feel Proxy, I had a filly last year that didn't sell and has cost me far more that she will ever repay in trainers fee's and the rest. I suppose this is the rub at this end of the market.
I am resigned to probably having to keep more in future which is why I am preferring to breed to something that I am optimistic about making a racehorse rather than a sales horse. I know that sounds a little arrogant but it's not meant that way. HIT sales are not the worst way to go, at least if you do breed something above average from a moderate pedigree you stand a chance of getting paid for it. Cityscape is growing on me for that reason.
By the way PotM the best I ever had was a chestnut filly that recently sold for USD150k at Keenland. I let her go cheap at the sales and I won't do that again in a hurry.
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proxygene
proxygene 02 Jan 16 17:31 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Hi Truehoncho,
No offence intended but I still haven't worked out if breeding is livelihood, project or pension plan for you (or all 3) I suppose one in training is a folly, a luxury or confidence respectively. I know you're a statistical cynic but if you want to PM me your mares names and location I can run them through the program. Make use how you wish, I just get a bit bored of running my same one(s) again and again, especially as Mrs P has banned restocking; joyless accountants. Regards.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 02 Jan 16 17:32 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Truehonch, your second example shows you are perhaps non too comfortable about other people making money out of your horses. I am not with you there as I am always happy for people to do that with mine as that makes them satisfied customers and unlike if I was to sell them a nice bag of apples when all I would perhaps get is them to repeat their custom, I get the plus an enhanced mare and any subsequent uplift that this brings.
Your first example shows the flip side as to why I am almost always happy to sell the lesser ones cheaply and let somebody else foot the bill for the subsequent disappointments!
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 17:59 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
I am more than happy for people to make money from my stock (as much as they can), but I have to make money as well. I bred and sold greyhounds for years (one to someone who had an excellent winner today at Sandown) and everybody made money from my dogs. Very often trainers made more from them than I did and I was more than happy with that for the reasons you stated PotM. The point I was trying to make was that I would rather back myself and keep them if I think they have potential than lose money on them. Sometimes if you're breeding just to sell you don't have that sort of confidence. Unfashionable breeding does not mean bad breeding and it often turns out the best horse.
As far as the filly costing me money, well that's just racing. It's a game of risk and reward. Sometimes the reward is not just about money.
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truehoncho
truehoncho 02 Jan 16 19:18 Joined: 11 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 761 | Blogger: truehoncho's blog
Hi Proxy,
sorry I didn't see your response before I responded to PotM. I breed racehorses for one reason and one reason only. To breed and own brilliant racehorses. Breeding top class racehorses is very very very hard. Breeding top class racehorses with the resources I have to hand is probably impossible. I realise I am probably going to fail, but God loves a tryer as they say.
I have no money, so I need to try and make the whole thing either pay for itself or at least contribute enough so that I can carry on trying. That is why I like this site so much. People like Potm who look at stallions and post their thoughts are invaluable.
I am not a statistical cynic, I studies post graduate calculus with Heinz Wolf at Brunel University and know the value of the maths. The thing for me is that horse racing and breeding has so many variables and spurious correlations that it can be more of a hindrance than a help. At the bottom end of this market it's about staying in the game long enough to give yourself a chance of getting very lucky and as I like it so much I don't mind the wait.
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potentialmillionaire
potentialmillionaire 06 Jan 16 09:20 Joined: 17 Mar 10 | Topic/replies: 2,354 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
I am not a statistical cynic, I studies post graduate calculus with Heinz Wolf at Brunel University and know the value of the maths. The thing for me is that horse racing and breeding has so many variables and spurious correlations that it can be more of a hindrance than a help. At the bottom end of this market it's about staying in the game long enough to give yourself a chance of getting very lucky and as I like it so much I don't mind the wait.
truehoncho, I couldn't have put it better myself - except the part about Brunel University, which not unsurprisingly I couldn't have 'put' atall!!
If I was down to three choices of stallion then I would every time use a pedigree system I trusted.
I also get great pleasure when a mating I have come up with meets approval with an expert like Proxygene
However with so many variables, not least budget, and what I have looking at me over the fence, the practical has to come first. and then I hope she who makes all the tough decisions, Lady Luck, will at least see that I tried!
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proxygene
proxygene 06 Jan 16 15:27 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Interestingly it still appears in your postings history
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proxygene
proxygene 08 Jan 16 18:28 Joined: 24 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 286 | Blogger: proxygene's blog
Will try and post this though perhaps the congniscenti might be the only ones to ever find it.
Expert no; investor/waster of possibly 10's of thousands of hours over 30 years starting with a Sinclair Spectrum yes.
There are two reasons for looking at nicking systems. The main one for me would be targeting disciples of them, surely increasing the breadth and intensity of a pool of potential buyers.
Secondly if they work or are believed to work. All systems have flaws, some are more glaring than others. The main ones I would quote would be incomplete data sets, cherry picking stakes horses and ignoring opportunity/frequency of such nicks, the use of earnings or percentage of BTW over ratings. Even sales stats can be misleading, I would always look to a sales median over an average that can be skewed too easily. The same would apply to racecourse earnings.
In the end I would guess that statistical 'help' might only contribute 5 to 10lbs but who wouldn't rather be involved with a 90 horse rather than an 80 (or even a 60 rather than 50). If that involved using one stallion over another (all other things being equal) then that's what I've been accumulating data for. I admit to using it as a starting point but would also attempt to avoid mistakes of conformation and saleability. Time will tell if the mistakes of the latter this year will ever allow replenishment of the pension pot in the future. If they can run I hope so, unless I've had to give away the dams before then.
Anyway, Best wishes to all forumites finding this 'dear diary' and send any spare luck my way please.
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A rather inelegant reconstruction but a salvage attempt
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Proxy, I'm impressed by your skill and tenacity, but perhaps a new thread on approaches to breeding might be worth it given how we have wandered off topic as usual? Your computer based nick finding is your raison d'etre but with the scientist in your tag what merit do you see in the new Equinome genetic tests ?
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Hi Formtwist,
I would like to think I maintain an objective cynicism to most things, and with adequate funds would be happy to target followers of genetic testing too. As a recent breeder I admit to having used such tests, out of curiosity as much as exploitation, via Thoroughbred Genetics, but have not slavishly followed their recommendations. Each company offering testing has a balancing act in how they present their products. DNA is a massive and complicated subject which unless simplified loses any mass appeal. In launching the initial speed gene I think stamina was oversimplified and the lost my interest straight away particularly with it's pricing. Other companies at the time were offering less specific broader tests and at significantly lower prices, but were less vocal. Equinome's newer tests do offer that broader pattern. Height could be the product of a small number of genes so is simple. The inbreeding and elite performance data are the complex ones but in analysing increasing volumes of individuals DNA, statistical patterns of aptitude must emerge. To distil such information into 3 or 4 brackets then keeps it more simple than what the drilled down analysis has revealed. I would agree that the inbreeding test is a much more accurate representation than paper pedigree. After all in theory it is possible that a specific grandparent may contribute zero of its DNA to it's grandchild, although statistically unlikely. (maternal mitochondrial DNA excepted). At my end of the market I still find these tests too expensive. I also question why the apparently same tests cost 3 times as much if you have them run privately compared to animals going to the sales. Is it because you act as an advertising hoarding for them at the sales, or because you have taken a gamble that undesirable results will be made public, or is it that owner breeders would be more amenable to paying a higher price? The moniker originally came from the prospect of using my analyses for other people ie by proxy, rather than be being at the forefront of science. |
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You clearly are a scientist, nicely explained thanks. I know the big studs use them a lot but I haven't tried them for price reasons mostly, though I probably prefer to trust to instinct and my amateurish ideas of pedigree matches in selecting stallions anyway. I do wish you a real change of luck, you were unlucky to have two fillies on a bad day in a very bad year. I came out a bit ahead thankfully, but I only sell the colts as foals, as it seems to me the pinhooker market only really likes the top pedigrees as filly foals and mine don't qualify as that (yet!). I save the fillies for the yearling sales, or to race when I think they are suitable to return to stud if good enough on track. All the breeding systems in the world sadly can't guarantee sex or correctness in the random genetic lottery of conception! As someone wise once said to me, hope for a colt but plan for a filly, hope it's correct but budget for correction. I just start with praying mares and foals stay alive.....and with the foaling season upon us that is uppermost in my mind. Good luck to everyone.........
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Formtwist, If you don't mind unsolicited (esoteric?) lists; to use as you wish gratis, the invite is there to PM me your mare names.
Home isn't really geared up for rearing so for me the cost of waiting on fillies as yearlings has outweighed the upside. Will see what comes of the retained one though, 1st foal for mare; a real stubborn use of the raison d'etre ahead of prudence. Again looking at things like sales stats, it is so difficult to get to a break even point from a low base, when other costs are fixed. I have bemoaned the dearth of UK based sire options in the 6-12k range, and now have to drop below that at least this year rather than chase the losses. At one point I wondered if a clutch of forumites might club together to buy a mid range mare to target profit, pooling our skills and resources. If good sales were based upon attracting a consensus of buyers, could a consensus of breeders produce such an individual too. However that does smack of design by committee with a resultant camel/pig hybrid being produced. Any contingency fund for such a plan on my behalf has long since been depleted. |
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Hi Proxygene, top marks for persistence getting this thread back. I don't disagree with any of you latest comments, in particular I probably don't take enough account of market expectations when it comes to nicks. Its something I will consider in future, especially if I obtain more commercial type mares.
For what it's worth I do have my own ideas about pedigree matching along the lines of Vulliers dosage system. It's a little crude but I like to get plenty of Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector, Machiavellian and Nasrullah and one or two others in my pedigree's (who wouldn't). I just figure that the more quality stallions in a pedigree the better. I certainly don't kid myself that I have some potent formula for success but it keeps my interest. With regard to the latest posts, like Formtwist, I don;t send fillies to foal sales. My mares simply aren't good enough. In fact I would prefer to keep everything to at least the yearling sales and will probably have to keep fillies for racing, as I have already mentioned. |
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Many thanks for the offer Proxygene, but nicking leaves out too many other influences in the pedigree for me and I get everything I need with the Equineline hypothetical mating facility. My aim is firstly to produce sound stock, secondly for the sale ring good conformation. That means mostly avoiding influences that compromise those aims and reinforcing those that achieve them. I'm old enough to remember most of the third generation horses in today's pedigrees when they raced which helps and overall I'm happy with the way my stock has turned out and the people that buy them. Steady improvement of quality I have achieved, profit is more erratic but I can fortunately afford that. The economics are much worse now than when I started, so I really admire the enthusiasm of you and other new breeders starting out at this stage.
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