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Off the toe
09 Oct 14 19:32
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 1,752 | Blogger: Off the toe's blog
Mukhadram the Gr1 eclipse winning son of Shamardal will stand for £7,000 at Nunnery Stud next year

About right?
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Report potentialmillionaire October 9, 2014 9:45 PM BST
Oh how this horse could do with some 2yo form.

I think a sprint 2yo type can start off at a rock bottom fee because he'll have plenty of chance commercially if he gets the correct type at the sales despite the cheapness.

I am not sure it is quite that straightforward with more of a stayer as you are starting on the back foot. I think that there has to be a bit bluff when setting a fee so people get a bit of confidence, smoke and mirrors perhaps, because fee does influence the mindset of buyer expectations.

I wouldn't want to use a cheap as chips stayer so maybe that 7k fits the bill?
Report Johnny_Mustang October 10, 2014 7:35 AM BST
2K, 5K, 7K or 20K - I'm not sure it matters as I can't see him being commercial and he strikes me as a horse very much for the owner breeder.
Report proxygene October 10, 2014 12:33 PM BST
I think there is a dearth of options in the £5-10K (GB) region which has given some savvy operators full licence to inflate fees beyond it.

I expected him to be higher than 7k but he is welcome in that bracket. Its true that as a non owner breeder he may not be an ideal risk for me.
Report potentialmillionaire October 10, 2014 5:35 PM BST
There is an elephant in the room here eluded to by proxy and that is where the hell are stallion fees going to end up this time. I get where Johnny m is coming from but I think we are all going to have to be quite creative in our decision making this time round as I think getting sucked in to inflated fees is going to be very dangerous indeed.
Fabulous prices this week and every chance that those figures will form a large part of the stallion masters rationale when it comes to setting fees.
However I imagine the percentages of horses making a loss is still about the same and for those the losses will be getting bigger if the stud fees do likewise. Everyone is going to need to hit with a nice horse to pay for the others at inflated production costs.
Maybe a wing with an unusual 7 k horse will be not so silly. We shall see what comes out of the woodwork.
Report yer ma October 10, 2014 8:39 PM BST
I think 7k for the only UK son of a wunder stallion (not my words) is entirely reasonable.  Fundamentally a 'better' horse than Casamento (clearly 2yo record counts for a lot) and he was turning mares away.  If he's decent looker I'd think about it with a more precocious mare.  You'll be paying 3k more for Garswood and more still for Toronado (and neither is a nailed on 2yo producer imo).   You could argue similar profile to Nayef and while he's deeply uncommercial now, the first few years were fine and you'll not be swamped with numbers.  Sounds like I'm sold when I'm not but can't dismiss out of hand, not when several newmarket studs have nothing to offer worthwhile under 15k.
Report potentialmillionaire October 10, 2014 8:47 PM BST
yer ma, were we separated at birth Laugh ?

You sum it up well and whilst I wouldn't say he is better looking than Nayef he is more of a commercial stamp in the looks department for sure.

Surely they can't go 10 for Garswood can they?

Have you been moonlighting at Tatts?
Report proxygene October 11, 2014 10:06 AM BST
2 thoughts.

If Mayson was unsustainable at £8k then Garswood at £10k.....(back to the exploitation of opportunity.)

With freshman sires books being so lopsided in the first season, and foal prices dropping 30 to 50% from season 1 to season 2 for most sires then (for example Mayson) the dropping of fee from season 1 to 2 should be automatic and not so much a reflection of mispricing/panic.
Report yer ma October 11, 2014 11:12 AM BST
You're probably right Proxy & PotM but Cheveley seem to be happy to exploit fact the same breeders come back for the next offering regardless of price.  Maybe 8k. 
I might have had a very small hand in some Book 1 success but none of the millions made is coming back to me I'm afraid.  Foal sale is going to approach rapidly now tho and feel fairly positive.

Of the first season yearlings (ie. 4th season covers), I think Zoffany looks promising so might have a punt next year on him getting classy winners.  Reckon he'd be 5/6 Euro.  I'm sold on that Tara Stud one if its 4 Euro, can't see any bargain value in UK (yet).   As you said, need to think out the box a bit.
Report potentialmillionaire October 11, 2014 3:14 PM BST
I think Zoffany's first yearlings will keep him as buoyant as any 4th seasoner can ever be. Given the risks involved I think he might be too pricey given also those that will be prepared to take it.

Proxy, some people are enlightened enough to drop a fee second season onwards without fear of image damage. It certainly doesn't affect my perception adversely. Many more are doing it behind the scenes for sure though.

Yer (warren) ma, don't be working for the big boys again without negotiating your 5% !
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