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kincsem
27 Feb 14 08:59
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Date Joined: 12 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 10,342 | Blogger: kincsem's blog
...into winners of Group races.

The analysis covers 1900 to 2013 for Group 1, 2, 3 races from 1970 to date for Ireland, England, France, Germany, Italy and those races back to 1900 before Group race classification was introduced.  I also covered Grade 1 USA races.
Some of those races were not inaugurated until after 1900 so I couldn't say "all races from 1900 to date".  At this stage I am struggling to find info on ~300 of 63,400 races.  I have the pedigrees of all other winners.

My idea is to see if the pedigrees of Group winners mostly include Group winners.  I will be doing that in the next few weeks.

This is what I find so far from the 154,545 horses in my database born from 1890 to date.
Includes some Australian, South American, and other that could not win the races.

wins horses
0    140070
1    9017
2    2816
3    1236
4    600
5    339
6    193
7    106
8    79
9    30
10    29
11    7
12    11
13    1
14    3
15    3
16    5

I should point out that as I am interested in pedigrees I treated horses with the same sire+dam as one horse.
For example, the six horses Sadler's Wells, Fairy King, Classic Music, Fairy Gold, Puppet Dance, Tate Gallery I treat as one horse because they are all by Northern Dancer out of Fairy Bridge.

QUIZ - what group of 5 horses as a group (not individually) produced 16 Group wins (see end of list above)?  Name one or all of the five.
Pause Switch to Standard View I am doing a bit of research ...
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Report kincsem February 27, 2014 5:11 PM GMT
Oops.  After I posted I found that about 30% of the races were not marked with Group1, Group2, Group 3 so were excluded from my calculations.
I may have wiped some data during an update.  It is an easy fix but will take a day.


QUIZ - what group of 5 horses as a group (not individually) produced 16 Group wins (see end of list above)?  Name one or all of the five.

The answer might give you an idea of what I am doing.

name________________dob____sire_dam_______________________________G1--G2--G3--Tot
BANKS HILL__________1998___DANEHILL (1986) - HASILI (1991)_________10--3--3--16
CACIQUE_____________2001___DANEHILL (1986) - HASILI (1991)_________10--3--3--16
CHAMPS ELYSEES______2003___DANEHILL (1986) - HASILI (1991)_________10--3--3--16
DANSILI_____________1996___DANEHILL (1986) - HASILI (1991)_________10--3--3--16
INTERCONTINENTAL____2000___DANEHILL (1986) - HASILI (1991)_________10--3--3--16


country___year___race_______________________________course_________name__________________dob___age___grade
ENGLAND__2001___CORONATION STAKES__________________ASCOT___________BANKS HILL____________1998___ 3___Group 1
FRANCE___2002___PRIX JACQUES LE MAROIS_____________DEAUVILLE_______BANKS HILL____________1998___ 4___Group 1
FRANCE___2001___PRIX DE SANDRINGHAM________________CHANTILLY_______BANKS HILL____________1998___ 3___Group 2
USA______2001___BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TUR_____________________BANKS HILL____________1998___ 3___Grade 1
FRANCE___2004___PRIX DANIEL WILDENSTEIN____________LONGCHAMP_______CACIQUE_______________2001___ 3___Group 2
FRANCE___2004___PRIX DAPHNIS_______________________LONGCHAMP_______CACIQUE_______________2001___ 3___Group 3
FRANCE___2005___PRIX DU CHEMIN DE FER DU NORD______CHANTILLY________CACIQUE______________2001___ 4___Group 3
USA______2006___MAN O' WAR STAKES__________________BELMONT PARK_____CACIQUE______________2001___ 5___Grade 1
USA______2006___MANHATTAN HANDICAP_________________BELMONT PARK_____CACIQUE______________2001___ 5___Grade 1
FRANCE___2007___PRIX D'HEDOUVILLE__________________LONGCHAMP________CHAMPS ELYSEES_______2003________Group 3
USA______2008___HOLLYWOOD TURF CUP STAKES__________HOLLYWOOD PARK___CHAMPS ELYSEES_______2003___ 5___Grade 1
FRANCE___2000___PRIX DU MUGUET_____________________SAINT CLOUD_______DANSILI_____________1996___ 4___Group 2
USA______2005___BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TUR_____INTERCONTINENTAL______________________2000___ 5___Grade 1
USA______2005___FIRST LADY STAKES__________________KEENELAND_________INTERCONTINENTAL___2000___ 5___Grade 1
USA______2004___JUST A GAME STAKES_________________BELMONT PARK______INTERCONTINENTAL___2000___ 4___Grade 1
USA______2004___MATRIARCH STAKES___________________HOLLYWOOD PARK____INTERCONTINENTAL___2000___ 4___Grade 1
Report kincsem March 12, 2014 2:43 PM GMT
Who produced the most Group race winners?

Sire - 70+ winners
Sadler's Wells
Danehill
Galileo
Danzig
Nureyev
Northern Dancer
Nijinsky
Habitat
Mr Prospector
Monsun
Riverman
Lyphard
Dansili
Storm Cat
Rainbow Quest
Caerleon
Pivotal
Montjeu
Mill Reef
Danehill Dancer
Alleged
Vaguely Noble
Blushing Groom
Blandford
Pharis
Tourbillon
Djebel
Diesis
Linamix
Hyperion
Alzao
Indian Ridge
Nearco
Kingmambo
Green Desert
Nasrullah
Darshaan

Dams 13+ winners
Astronomie
Born Gold
Galicia
Festa
Buonamica
Zariba
Hasili
Urban Sea
Daltawa
Admiration
Belle Et Bonne
Lucayan Princess
Height Of Fashion
Adargatis
Relance
Nogara
Ordinale
Promised Lady
Colorspin
Klepto
Sacarina
Seaweed
Athasi
Gouvernante
Fall Aspen
Roquebrune
Finnoise
Rum Cay
Quaze
Once Double
Kind
Ramondie
Crown Treasure
Korveya
Pearl Maiden
La Paiva
Feemoss
Flaming Page
Crimea
Spring Cleaning
Le Melody
Ballerina
Solac
Fame At Last
Trillion
Polly Flinders
Lagrion
Aggravate
Marcia
Pasquinade
Solar Echo

Group races GR1, Gr2, Gr3 (or equiv 1900 to 2013)
Ireland, England, USA, France, Germany, Italy
(USA Group 1 only)

Dansili, Danehill Dancer, Alzao, Indian Ridge, Darshaan
have a low percentage Group 1 winners of theit group winners.
The USA based sires have a high Gr 1 % as I only took USA Group 1s.

4477 sires; 16,242 dams
Report PeteTheBloke March 17, 2014 8:29 PM GMT
... I treated horses with the same sire+dam ...

Sometimes called full siblings Grin
Report kincsem March 18, 2014 11:34 PM GMT
I am close to automating this.  The programs are written but just need to be cleaned up.

The numbers in the example below might / might not be accurate (some checking needed).
What it shows is the number of group 1, group 2, group 3 wins by the offspring
of the sire and dam of the horses listed (Derby winners in the example).

A small problem is the number of wins include the wins of the subject horse.
e.g Dr Devious:  The 8 G1, 13 G2, 34 G3 wins of offspring of his sire Ahonoora
include the 3 x G1, 0 x G2, 1 x G3 of Dr Devious.

You will see that the sire offspring Group wins of Oath, Galileo, and High Chaparral
are equal as their sires are Sadler's Wells or his full sibling Fairy King.
The same for the dam offspring Group wins of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both are out of Urban Sea.

I also have the wins by the sire's sire and dam, and the dam's sire and dam (not shown for space reasons).

With luck I can use the raw data to perhaps arrive at a horse pedigree quality number
based on the ancestors ability to produce group winners.

I have found some strange info.
Halling as a sire has G1, G2, G3 winners of 4, 18, 24.  He has only four Group 1 winners from 46 group winners.

Group 1s:  Cutlass Bay in the Prix Ganay, Cavalryman in the Grand Prix de Paris,
Giovani Imperatore in the Premio Parioli, and Fisich in the Gran Premio Milano

Famously his son Hala Bek almost won the 2006 Derby before "swerving sharply right under the whip".

I have only used USA Grade 1 races, and need to gather lower grade USA results.


Name__________________dob_______s_g1___s_g2___s_g3_____d_g1___d_g2___d_g3

Quest For Fame________1987_______29_____27____45_________2_____0_____0
Generous______________1988_______38_____22____44_________6_____0_____2
Dr Devious____________1989________8_____11____34_________3_____0_____3
Commander In Chief____1990________7_____4_____10_________5_____6_____0
Erhaab________________1991________8_____2_____7__________1_____2_____0
Lammtarra_____________1992_______61_____22____35_________3_____0_____1
Shaamit_______________1993_______3_____5_____10__________1_____0_____0
Benny The Dip_________1994_______22_____12____21_________1_____2_____1
High-Rise_____________1995________2_____0_____3__________1_____0_____1
Oath__________________1996______159_____93____171________4_____0_____0
Sinndar_______________1997_______13_____8_____13_________4_____1_____1
Galileo_______________1998______159_____93____171_______13_____1_____3
High Chaparral________1999______159_____93____171_______6_____3_____0
Kris Kin______________2000_______24_____2_____9__________1_____0_____1
North Light___________2001_______89_____43_____89________1_____1_____2
Motivator_____________2002_______36_____33_____27_________2_____2_____1
Sir Percy_____________2003________6_____3_____13__________2_____0_____1
Authorized____________2004_______36_____33_____27_________3_____1_____0
New Approach__________2005_______69_____30_____78_________5_____1_____2
Sea The Stars_________2006_______14_____14_____30________13_____1_____3
Workforce_____________2007________7_____4_____20__________2_____0_____1
Pour Moi______________2008_______36_____33_____27_________1_____1_____2
Camelot_______________2009_______36_____33_____27_________4_____0_____1
Ruler Of The World____2010_______69_____30_____78_________6_____0_____1
Report kincsem March 21, 2014 12:45 AM GMT
The computer programs are working / finished.

The idea is to have the number of Group1, Group2, Group 3 wins for
- winner
- sire
- dam
- sire’s sire
- sire’s dam
- dam’s sire
- dam’s dam.

There is a slight difference in the group wins for the sire, dam, and other ancestors.
Here it is not the number of group wins of the sire, dam, or other ancestor as a runner.
It is the number of group wins of their offspring as runners.

There is a further feature to this “group wins of the offspring of ancestor”.
I have treated full siblings as a unit.
An example is High Chaparral (1999) by sire Sadler’s Wells.
When I calculate numbers for High Chaparral the Group wins of Sadler’s Wells as a sire (the wins of his offspring), I include
the group wins of the full-siblings of Sadler’s Wells: Classic Music; Fairy Gold; Fairy King; Puppet Dance; Tate Gallery.

Some data:
Countries: Ireland, England, France, Italy, Germany, USA (Grade 1 only at present)
Years: 1900 to 2013 (or from race inauguration).
Program calculation time is 2m48s for 66,558 possible races.
There were 66,558 possible races from 1900 to 2013.
Number of Group races run 31,535.
Some races were not begun/inaugurated until after 1900.
Many were not run due to war, weather, strikes.
Some have changed frm Group status to/from handicap, listed, or conditional.
Number of individual winners 20,278.
Number of ancestors with one or more Group winning offspring 157,876.


This is a selection of the best performing horses from the best producing ancestors.

Damascus (1964)
Gamely (1964)
Shuvee (1966)
Slew O' Gold (1980)
Marling (1989)
Paradise Creek (1989)
Sky Beauty (1990)
My Flag (1993)
Denon (1998)
Russian Rhythm (2000)
Court Vision (2005)
Henrythenavigator (2005)
Midday (2006)


Next steps:
1. Extract ancestor data of G1,G2,G3 winners.  Do G1 winners have stronger pedigrees than G3 winners?
2. Extract ancestor data for some race fields e.g Dante Stakes.  Did the winners have stronger pedigrees?
Report Big_Issue March 21, 2014 2:06 PM GMT
Ok, thats the past winners but I find it's easier to make money from future winners?
Report kincsem March 21, 2014 4:53 PM GMT
Happy
You might have noticed that I am completing the work just before the flat season starts.
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