Arcano

Ovalu I saw Arcano a couple of years ago at Derrinstown and was not minded to get involved in the bun fight for what was a very hot sire given, as you say, his rather winding right fore.

Obviously you have a sales record now to consider which teaches you more on what he might produce but he was certainly at the outer limits of what I would take a chance with conformation wise.

Thanks potm, it's certainly a battle to find a good fast correct and cheap one. I suppose his good yearling sales suggest  they are looking fairly good but he might be a bit too risky for me this time

Friend was working at Meehan's when Arcano was there.  He said horse infinitely better than he showed on racecourse, needed soft ground ideally and a different trainer!  He said horses soundness issues were not the fault of the horse!!

He was an unbeaten champion 2yo, Brian didn't do too badly!

Of the 3 sons of O.Dream with their first runners this year he has the highest expectation and therefore needs to deliver the most which won't be easy.

Aah, that oh so rare phenomenem ( not ) , a lad who knows how to train better than the boss.

Funny how so few of them decide to become fabulously successful trainers themselves!!

It will be interesting to see who wins the battle of the 'precocious 2yo only' sire intake of 2011. There's certainly plenty to chose from.

Yes certainly the best of the 3 oasis dreams, the only G1 winner and a proper G1 it was beating  canford cliffs and special duty in a record time, however the fact that he appears to have a crooked front leg and he didn't train on, well it's a worry from a breeding point of view. Incidentally I'm not at this v long but how do good racehorses with poor conformation do generally  as sires? For example would all of the top sires OD, IS, Dansili  etc be fairly correct?  Or are there examples of sires with dodgy legs doing well?

cue...Pivotal

Pivotal is: Too big, too plain, has an average pedigree...... and is an excellent stallion

Fastnet Rock has; huge feet, an enormous plain head, couldn't be sold as a yearling..... and has 14 Gr 1 winners from 5 crops

Dubawi is: Too small, too dumpy, can't walk.....and is a phenomenal stallion


History is littered with these example. If we always listened to agents' views on what makes a racehorse, there would be no bloodstock industry.

Thanks proxygene, wilycayote.  What I'm taking onboard from this is that poor conformation may not be the last word in a stallion, So fastnet rock and pivotal may not be lookers, but are group 1 winning sprinters by good sires, out of good broodmare sires,  good pedigrees,  which all seems to have overridden conformation problems,  so I'm still thinking arcano might be worth a punt, incidentally does anyone know if derrinstown deal  on 4th season?

I had looked at him for a mare as a first seasoner. I liked the Daylami connection for her (for better or worse) but he didn't point his toe racing and neither did she.

I was also wary of Derrinstown taking the brakes off the limited book size when many would have already committed expecting it to be smaller than it was. It seemed like they had given up on their almost unique selling point. Hasn't seemed to put a dent in demand after all though.

Interesting point proxy on the old ballet shoes. Sounds like you might get more Daylami than you bargain for in Arcano!

It is certainly a deviation from Oasis Dream who's action is as light as a feather and I am not sure we are looking for any deviation from O D are we.

Showcasing has the same very light action so perhaps he might be the one? Although I don't see him as being consistent which hopefully will be a point in his favour in due course as they might not be all consistently slow!

Dubawi is: Too small

this is not an issue........there was plenty of very good stallions 15.3 HH

i do not agree with you

What about Approve?  Oasis Dream also, 4th Season also, E1K cheaper than Arcano, Dam has bred a listed winner as well who did train on - Cape of Approval (OR 107).  No idea what he's like from a confirmation point of view though.

good suggestion PP,  I havnt seen him but have heard he is a very good looking correct horse, and I have seen some of his stock and they have been v nice. Going 4th season is obviously a huge gamble and there is loads of competition this season in that market, my gut instinct (usually wrong)tells me approve wasn't top class as a racehorse, the G2's he won were moderate, his pedigree is moderate, whereas arcano was brilliant with problems, and slightly better pedigree. Therefore in my gambling mind Arcano has a better chance (sure to be proven wrong here)

A lot of pseudo-science being spoken on this thread. People talk about certain traits as though they are heritable (eg light action, pointing the toe). Genetics class needed for many on this forum. Keep deluding yourselves guys.

Bert, rather than being negative  why not contribute something positive, for example why not tell us what important characteristics in a sire are heritable in your view?

Inbreeding
X-factor
Dosage

Here are 3 theories that for years many breeders and bloostock agents based decisions on and all 3 have proved to be complete tripe.

As far as conformation goes, there has never been one study that has shown that once a horse reached the track that any one conformation type over another results in increased racing performance. Indeed one study showed no correlation between conformation 'defects' and racetrack performance. So even if some factors are more heritable than others, what is the point of worrying about it? 

Conformation is for Catholics. Any successes breeders have on trying to match conformations between mare and potential stallion can be put down to chance. Unfortunately the whole bloodstock industry is built on the prevalence of a number of cognitive biases within its stakeholders.

So in the red corner we have Darwin and in the blue we have Bert147.

Sure is plenty tripe written & used to base decisions on in bloodstock but to say mother + father has no bearing on likely offspring is bizarre.  I presume Bert u have no physical or behavioural traits of either of your parents?

I did not say that. Mother and father has all the bearing on the genetic outcome. 

'So even if some factors are more heritable than others, what is the point of worrying about it?'

To think you can somehow increase your odds of achieving a better standard of racehorse by trying to match conformation characteristics of mares and stallions is baseless. Someone show me the proof that this works at a better rate than random and I will listen.

Bert147, much as we would like to think otherwise, we are a relatively small industry -well compared to Dairy, Beef, Pig and Poultry we are - and as such there is never a ton of money floating around to definitively research what does and does not create the perfect racehorse.
You've surely seen a refined milking cow as she struggles to walk 'around' an enormous udder or a beautiful beef animal with an flat top line and an enormous arse. Well someone has got to that stage somehow and I don't see why our industry can't aim for the fastest horse. In the absence of hard science I sure as hell don't see why we should not approach it with all the pet theories we choose.

What I am completely certain of however is that some people make better breeders than others and that some buyers are considerably ahead of the game  when it comes to isolating the best horse from those we all produce. They particularly are experts on conformation and I can assure you that whilst I am no expert, as a breeder I have a very good idea on what a mating with conformation in the mix will produce and it's likely chances of success.

A top trainer will have likely no knowledge of genetics and many top breeders likewise. They see what is in front of them and act accordingly.  They have seen enough animals through their hands an have the talent to interpret it correctly.

We don't have a lot of science to back this up but unlike the ridiculous dosage and the like, the make and shape of a horse is sitting outside my window as I type and is very tangible indeed.

Better breeders than me, and indeed you perhaps, don't pay too much attention to the paperwork and they get the results, and there are enough of us to make a large enough study to show who does it better than the next man and how they can't be wholly reliant on chance.

Your dogma on what cannot work is I'm afraid rather as tiresome as the Dosage /Rasmusson's (sic) types and their assertion as to what does.

I don't think any of us can claim to know what exactly works and what doesn't. If we did, surely we would just go do it.

Other than the likes of Frederico Tesio, Arthur Budget, John Magnier, the rest of us have just got to back our own judgement and hope for the best.

Horses can make fools of anyone, its brave just to play the game...

So you're assertion is not that features of parents dont impact features of the offspring (that would b anti-darwinian) but that they don't increase odds of racecourse success.  I disagree

No proof is feasibly gathered as who would provide the sample of 'wrong' mares/stallions matings and anyway I suggest you wouldn't concede a small sample if one could be found.

However, I would suggest someone with such certainty as you could make a killing buying dozens of crooked foals / yearlings for the price of a 'correct' one in the knowledge you must be statistically ahead when it comes to racing performance.

"So you're assertion is not that features of parents dont impact features of the offspring (that would b anti-darwinian) but that they don't increase odds of racecourse success. I disagree."

You have summed up my position exactly. Any studies I like to read with an open mind. Studies by both Prof. Wayne McIlwraith and Davis et al have shown the connection between conformation and racehorse performance to be extremely weak.

As for your last point, given ROI% for complete guesses is something like -80%, I very much doubt even an exceptional judge would get even half their money back from unraced bloodstock in the long term.

Well it's nice to see and hear you lot have woke up anyway!

There have been examples of ugly horses with poor confirmation, not wanted by anyone, who have been world beaters.
And of course there have been a number of high profile bidding wars for what appears to be equine perfection who have turned out to be slow.

But as people who are in this business as a livelihood all you are doing is trying to create a nice shiny well presented car for auction rather than one with a flat tyre to obtain the best price. As it will probably drive better.

Of course it could be a Ferrari with a flat and you lot are churning out a load of puntos

Welcome back all

Impressive start for Arcano today, seen as I didn't use him in the end I'm sure he'll turn out to be a star!

Now you have single handedly turned  Arcano into a star ovalu, (get your betting boots on every time an Equiano runs incidentally, as I have ensured his success too) are you going to be brave enough to mention which horse you have consigned to a dismal career by your use this year

Yes PotM the poor horse I afflicted was Most Improved, so that's the death knell already for the 3yo career of Ectot and the burgeoning stallion career of Lawman!

I think we are missing a trick here ovalu. With your ability to scupper a career and my talent for casting similar curses all over the place we need to get together.
If we compiled a list of stallions we haven't used we could make our fortune selling it to yer ma perhaps

I'd never knock a good looking 1st seasoner mind. So often a good place to start commercially

Those Arcanos are hot property tonight, average  price £200k for 3 sold,  fast company's been given away, average price  4k, needless to mention which one I have a foal by

(red/)go for it red)

I know its very very early days, but two 2nd season sires stats to pick out for 2015 so far:

Arcano - 10 runners / 6 winners          60%
Equiano - 14 runners / 0 winners          0%