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bert147
10 Oct 13 01:55
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Date Joined: 23 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 251 | Blogger: bert147's blog
After going all the way to 5,000,000gns for a Galileo yearling at Tattersalls, Sheikh Joaan's principal buyer Nicolas de Watrigant said: "We think she's special. She has everything and we didn't want to miss her."

Crazy price. When will buyers learn about auction economics. The worst time to buy a full sister/brother to a classic winner is in the couple of years after the victory. Ever heard of a recency bias? £5m on a yearling filly is absolutely crazy. You could buy 4 proven mares for that money and breed your own. Did they think they were bidding on a colt in all the excitement?

Congratulations though, they have purchased a full sister to an Oaks winner in Was. I prefer to think they have bought a half sister to:

A 4yo Colt who didn't make it to the track (deceased)
An unplaced in 3 starts Daylami colt
A mid 70s rated Irish Handicapper
A bit of a rogue in Janood (although in fairness did fall into picking up a 4 runner listed race as a 2yo)
An as yet unraced 1.5m 2yo filly (full sister)

I feel like going out and buying a tonne of tulips if this is the way of the world now.

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Replies: 33
By:
bert147
When: 10 Oct 13 02:07
I have to admire the 'chutzpah' of the Breeders.

A packed sales ring suggested the filly was expected to create fireworks and no-one was disappointed - least of all Lodge Park Stud, which bred and consigned the record breaker.

"We sat down around March to decide what would go where and what we'd do," said the stud's Damian Burns. "She'd have had to have got a good price if we were to sell her and with that price we feel justified - but she's going to be very hard to replace."


Reading that you would have thought the reserve was £4m. They will be having a laugh and a big drink tonight for sure. God bless the Qataris.
By:
truehoncho
When: 10 Oct 13 09:39
Bert,

I think what we are seeing is a number of hugely wealthy entrants into the market targeting the a small number of horses to kick start their operations. Rather than spend time developing pedigree's and lines they want success now (see football premier league).

In terms of value for money, its all relative. If they keep buying full sisters to classic winners, my guess is over time they will have stock that is worth every penny they have spent. I think over the next few years we will see bloodstock prices at the top end rise dramatically.
By:
bert147
When: 10 Oct 13 10:16
targeting the small number of horses to kick start their operations.

This view is often been banded about by buyers and agents. As though out of the hundreds of Yearlings up for sale each year they can spot the 'small number' destined for the top. They can't! You just have to look at the record of top lots to see that. As opposed to the market for Premiership footballers which is actually very efficient. The top lots are all Internationals (eg Group winners). In other words you 'more or less' get what you pay for. Last time I collected data the difference in track performance between lots in the 10th quartile of price and the 9th was negligible.

If they keep buying full sisters to classic winners, my guess is over time they will have stock that is worth every penny they have spent.

Are you seriously saying spending £5m on full sisters to Classic winners will eventually result in a break even ROI? This smells like the beginning of a bubble in the perceived top end. They have overspent on hype. There is not even the chance of hitting a Stallion jackpot with this one.
By:
bert147
When: 10 Oct 13 10:46
*9th and 10th (out of 10) percentile ranges. Difference between 3rd and 4th quartiles did show a measurable track performance difference.

May start an excel sheet for 2012 Tatts.
By:
truehoncho
When: 10 Oct 13 10:54
I'm not sure I agree with you about the value of premier league football players, however there is no doubt that agents and hype influence the value of bloodstock more than the fundamentals of the sport.
1

On the point of value that's very relative. These are people with obscene amounts of money. There comes a point where you have to exchange your bits of paper and digital credit balances into something real. Believe me that's not as easy as it may seem. If you were in this position why wouldn't you put some of it (throw it away) into something you enjoy? And as for a bubble, forget it. Everyone said that the bubble had burst in 2008 and now just five years on we are breaking those records old already. For the super wealthy there are no bubbles.
By:
bert147
When: 10 Oct 13 11:21
I realize the super wealthy are chasing the utility of sport when purchasing. My main point being is that even the super wealthy only choose to spend a certain amount each year on bloodstock. Lets say £30m for instance. Spending 1/6th of it on one unraced yearling filly is crazy if your goal is to own as many group winners as possible. They would give themselves a better chance (eg more efficient) if they purchased more horses but at a lower price.
By:
bert147
When: 10 Oct 13 11:26
Of course my favorite time of year is May and June when Qatar/Godolphin et al buy up as many of the unfashionable winning 2yo's owned by the smaller players as possible. Incidentally I think this buying strategy is actually far better than million pound yearling purchases.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 10 Oct 13 12:58
Bert,

You are applying logic to the illogicality of a market that fizzes and pops every so often. The "players" love nothing more than a new greenhorm moneybags into the game and the coffers are filled all round.

The premium to enter the bloodstock market at the highest end will always be stratospheric. Nothing changes in this regard.

If they keep buying full sisters to classic winners, my guess is over time they will have stock that is worth every penny they have spent.

If you apply this to Arab spending on mares and fillies of the last three decades the racecourse results seem to suggest failure, mismanagement or something more sinister. On the other hand there's little doubt John Magnier has THE best modern broodmare band with many of them imported from the States in the 70's.
By:
truehoncho
When: 10 Oct 13 15:59
well the brother to Hydrogen could only make £500k. I wonder what he reserve was and why the breeders thought it should be worth more. Maybe the hype got to them and £200k profit wasn't worth getting up for.
By:
cunningplan
When: 10 Oct 13 17:22
my view albeit with little experience but a lot of interest,
i had a think about this last night, if i had a spare 5 million to invest in bloodstock not 25 or 50 million just the 5 it cost for that filly, i could go through the book 1 catalogue and buy 25 beautifully bred fillies by Galileo, Sea the stars, oasis dream etc etc send them to various trainers (i realise i need more than 5 million with fees etc) out of those i would expect to gain some decent success on the track, then i would have 25 broodmares all very well bred to begin a decent breeding operation, i believe that may become a profitable business given a few years and great fun also, in fact i may look at the sales results and pick 25 or so and follow there progress, just my opinion..........
By:
cunningplan
When: 10 Oct 13 17:53
lol just for fun spent an imaginary 3.5 million on nearly 40 fillies with a load of Galileos and rest all top stallions and i wasn't picking out the cheapest better buy that euro millions ticket
By:
jmc27
When: 10 Oct 13 19:45
I could be wrong but their seems to be a tiny little anti arab sentiment in this thread John Magnier was underbidder right up to the end aswell so if he had won would this thread of been started?
Plus they admit they are going after what Coolmore are looking for because they respect Magniers eye

It must be remembered the Qatari boys are buying from all scales of the price spectrum and investing heavily in racing aswell.
Millions to them is like hundreds to us so its impossible for us to realistically understand
By:
cunningplan
When: 10 Oct 13 19:56
nothing anti arab from me, i'm just trying to make some sense out of this whole thing,no matter how much money you have surely you invest wisely
By:
kincsem
When: 10 Oct 13 20:23
My guess is you would have a better chance with 50 at £100k than one at £5 million.
By:
truehoncho
When: 10 Oct 13 21:17
Some more quotes from the Burns' to amuse Bert

'It was a hard decision to sell her and it's still tough to know that she's not going to be around tomorrow, but her price makes that a little bit easier'

On a sliding scale of easiness how much would they have needed to make it a lot easier?

for £5m I could probably get over the wife and kids not being around tomorrow (probably a bit less!!)
By:
The Gotchee
When: 10 Oct 13 22:35
It is my view that WAS fluked the Oaks. Ballydoyle employed 2 pacemakers that day for the sole purpose of setting a slow pace for their strongly fancied stable mate Maybe. They went a crawl,Maybe didn't handle the track and struggled throughout the race. Was got first run and wasn't caught. In six subsequent runs she never won another race and performed to Listed class level at best.
By:
bert147
When: 11 Oct 13 00:03
Certainly know anti arab sentiment from me. Im anti stupid only. £5m for a yearling filly is crazy. Although in Magnier's defence it is slightly less crazy to buy one when you own the Sire.

Also who thought it was a wise auction strategy to declare that you respect another buyers eye?! And to bid on ones that they like. Auction rings are ruthless places and it has been known plenty of times for people to covertly bid up yearlings that they already own.
By:
bert147
When: 11 Oct 13 00:03
Certainly know anti arab sentiment from me. Im anti stupid only. £5m for a yearling filly is crazy. Although in Magnier's defence it is slightly less crazy to buy one when you own the Sire.

Also who thought it was a wise auction strategy to declare that you respect another buyers eye?! And to bid on ones that they like. Auction rings are ruthless places and it has been known plenty of times for people to covertly bid up yearlings that they already own.
By:
bert147
When: 11 Oct 13 00:04
*no
By:
lingbleed
When: 11 Oct 13 00:08
i think its clear that she must have looked unreal the coolmore team know what's what's and yes they get it wrong just like every one , but they clearly get it right more ,unless you were there you cant really tell  good she looked plus her page was very good .as stated above the brother to hydrogen the big player's were not interested ,but they all were last year ,so clearly he was not in the same league as his brother .it takes more than a page and i know i dont need to tell you 's that am sure most know more than i do .Plus did i see right lot 489 galileo out of lahaleeb didnt get sold at 1,200,000 what the feck was the vendor hoping for ,or maybe it was a mistake surely no one have a reserve over 1,200,000 if so thats just greedy
By:
bert147
When: 11 Oct 13 00:40
If the market was good at spotting the future group winners from looks and page the top 5 lots from each sale would perform on the track. Look at tatts top 5 lots from last 10 years and tell me they get it right more than they get it wrong. When you are buying the horse that is the best walker, looker etc all you are doing is overpaying as these perceived advantages are not worth the premium.
By:
lingbleed
When: 11 Oct 13 01:02
i guess your right bert ,in fact history tells us ur right ,well i guess coolmore have two agenda's make sure there stallions names are in light's after every sale ,plus coolmore must have some amount of 2 year old's every year .i wonder what happen's the bad ones ,plus does coolmore sell at the sales under different banner's ,i taught devoted to you was one of there fillies .didnt the fugue go to the sales only to return home cause no one wanted her ,guess she didnt walk straight
By:
kincsem
When: 11 Oct 13 03:56
^
Who was the trainer who said we don't have walking races?
By:
truehoncho
When: 11 Oct 13 10:32
It is very frustrating as a small breeder when you have to let one go cheap and you see very moderate stock from the 'fashionable' breeders being in books they shouldn't be in getting sold for money that can only mean either the purchaser doesn't have a clue or is getting bad advice (you could change bad advice for conned. I expect it's the same at the top and sales companies, agents and vendors all persuading buyers that the walk and their version of good confirmation is what makes a horse a winner and worth lots of money.

Is it possible that he £1.2m buy in was a foal share with an agreed price set before hand?
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 11 Oct 13 10:58
It is best to have an over-zealous scepticism about anything you see or read from the bloodstock auction rings. I hope I am not spinning "anti" prejudices but I just cannot reconcile the notion of cash been flashed around with gay abandon when those spending are either happy to play the game (wealth beyond imagination) or are incredibly stupid or naive.

I suspect the rarefied air of Knightsbridge and Tattersalls allows one to occupy a land of no consequences. What the protesters of the Arab spring would make of it all is beyond conjecture.
By:
brain dead jockeys
When: 12 Oct 13 04:26
no logic in this............just billionaires flasing their cash.........ask coolmore and godolphn how they got on spending zillions on storm cat in the sales..........mostly duds..........
By:
The Gotchee
When: 12 Oct 13 22:01
A lot of these sales are total codswallop involving a few shrewd confidence trixters/artists. This is how it works;

In Confessions of a Confidence Man, Edward H. Smith lists the "six definite steps or stages of growth in every finely balanced and well-conceived confidence game."
"One follows the other with absolute precision. In some games one or more of these acts, to use a theatrical comparison, may be dropped out, but where that happens the game is not a model one. The reference to the stage is apt, for the fine con game has its introduction, development, climax, dénouement and close, just like any good play. And this is not the only analogy to the drama, for the scenes are often as carefully set; the background is always a vital factor. In the colorful and mirthful language of the bunko man, all these parts of the game have their special names. I give them with their definitions:
Foundation Work
The preparations which are made before the scheme is put in motion, including the elaboration of the plan, the employment of assistants and so forth.
Approach
The manner of getting in touch with the victim—often most elaborately and carefully prepared.
Build-up
Rousing and sustaining the interest of the victim, introducing the scheme to him, rousing his greed, showing him the chance of profit and filling him so full of anticipation and cupidity that his judgment is warped and his caution thrown away.
Pay-off or Convincer
An actual or apparent paying of money by the conspirators to convince the victim and settle doubts by a cash demonstration. In the old banco game the initial small bets which the victim was allowed to win were the pay-off. In stock swindles the fake dividends sent to stockholders to encourage larger investments are the pay-off.
The Hurrah
This is like the dénouement in a play and no con scheme is complete without it. It is a sudden crisis or unexpected development by which the sucker is pushed over the last doubt or obstacle and forced to act. Once the hurrah is sprung the victim is clay in the schemer’s hands or there is no game.
The In-and-In
This is the point in a con game where the conspirator puts some of his money into the deal with that of the victim; first, to remove the last doubt that may tarry in the gull’s mind, and, second, to put the con man in control of the situation after the deal is completed, thus forestalling a squeal. Often the whole game is built up around this feature and just as often it does not figure at all.
In addition, some games require what is called 'corroboration', which means what it says. This is important in games where a banker or other shrewd customer is to be the victim."
By:
Lairy Mary
When: 13 Oct 13 11:49
I didn't see this filly go through the ring sadly but I am at least pleased she has gone to the best of the owners trainers. I can think of several others who may have done a Hydrogen on her!
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 14 Oct 13 12:51
All power to the Qataris I say, they've provoked the busiest thread on this site for a while and I am pleased with that!

Obviously their spending levels have been touched on here pretty succinctly.

We are all guilty of buying product over and above the roof over our head and the food on our table.
We are all guilty of getting carried away with the moment and allowing our heads to be turned by fashion.

When I can't pass a sticky bun in a bakery window - just when will I be passing this way again. . .?

To be honest I probably have to weigh up the pros and cons of that bun more than they have to assess the affordability of that filly Cry

Coolmore however - and I am assuming it wasn't a foal share due to a tiny bit of knowledge on the folks at Lodge Park - as underbidders were a little crazy I feel however.

They had a perfectly acceptable sales tool for Galileo nominations only 24 hours previously and they have the full sister who is so much a part of the excessive valuation anyway. Has J.M. got a Gaugin entered at Christies shortly? Perhaps he will now withdraw it!
By:
Lairy Mary
When: 23 Jun 14 15:00
So now what do we think after she wins on debut for Andre Fabre?
By:
bert147
When: 23 Jun 14 19:03
It certainly won well. Given that they paid £7m for Treve who had already proven her ability it must still go down as a poor value price. For all their winners last week at Royal Ascot none were bought by them at the sales. That says it all about their ability to get value from their sales £.

However they live in a world where im sure they are not bothered about how efficiently they spend. The one thing they do well is spread their bloodstock around many good trainers imo.
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 23 Jun 14 20:08
Video if anyone wants a look.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rvJAm2XpPY
By:
Wilycayote
When: 23 Jun 14 23:03
bert147, their Norfolk winner was bought at DBS as a yearling.

glad they are having so much success, dont think they would stick around otherwise.
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