Bloodstock & Breeding
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04 Oct 12
11:45
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Date Joined:
05 Jun 08
This is something I have threatened to do many times and is loosely based on Sageform's winning stallion stats, Steve Taplin's 2yo annual and, most recently, truehoncho's attempt to predict the future stallions from Tatts Book 1 (my aim is more modest-merely to select yearling pedigrees (and prices) that may produce winners.
It has essentially a betting aspiration so I hope the purists here don't mind.
By way of introduction: as far as I know the only Breeze Up sale in Ireland is that held at Goresbridge - where the horses gallop at Gowran Park - and in May 2007 Pat Flynn gave a jaw-dropping €105,000 for an Acclamation colt to be named Prince Shaun. He won his only start at two (16/1) and also his first start at three (4/1) before being packed off to the Middle East after a generally disappointing 3yo career.
At various stages I have followed lists of the top ten/twenty from all sales (yearlings and breeze ups) but the success rate was generally disappointing principally because most of the top lots were bought by connections with more money than sense (!) so, in an effort to save myself hours and hours of exhaustive research and study, I was hoping to canvass a few expert opinions here on what makes a yearling a winner at two or three.
Some areas to look into would be:
1. Trainer spending an inordinate amount relative to average spend
2. History of success with siblings
3. Fondness for a stallion
4. Success with dam line etc etc
I read the results of the yearling/2yo sales week in, week out and ultimately realise that only a concentrated study of pedigree, past trends, auction price and a myriad of other factors is the only solution.
Opinions welcome.
It has essentially a betting aspiration so I hope the purists here don't mind.
By way of introduction: as far as I know the only Breeze Up sale in Ireland is that held at Goresbridge - where the horses gallop at Gowran Park - and in May 2007 Pat Flynn gave a jaw-dropping €105,000 for an Acclamation colt to be named Prince Shaun. He won his only start at two (16/1) and also his first start at three (4/1) before being packed off to the Middle East after a generally disappointing 3yo career.
At various stages I have followed lists of the top ten/twenty from all sales (yearlings and breeze ups) but the success rate was generally disappointing principally because most of the top lots were bought by connections with more money than sense (!) so, in an effort to save myself hours and hours of exhaustive research and study, I was hoping to canvass a few expert opinions here on what makes a yearling a winner at two or three.
Some areas to look into would be:
1. Trainer spending an inordinate amount relative to average spend
2. History of success with siblings
3. Fondness for a stallion
4. Success with dam line etc etc
I read the results of the yearling/2yo sales week in, week out and ultimately realise that only a concentrated study of pedigree, past trends, auction price and a myriad of other factors is the only solution.
Opinions welcome.
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You have made one serious omission - conformation.Both physical and mental.The pedigree is only part of the story (probably less than stud managers would have us believe).
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Couldn't agree more - isn't that why the Hannon Team are so good - individual first, pedigree second?
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In fairness to Royal Academy, he did state that he was coming at this from a betting angle and therefore he is never going to be watching the yearlings wander round a sales ring. Conformation is not going to be a factor that is available to him surely?
R,A. I am not sure a yearling price is ever going to be much help to you as so much is dictated by fashion. A stallion that consistently gets results but doesn't hit the fashion headlines might be perhaps worth following by sales prices because perhaps that will get you a head start to identifying a well put together horse. The top priced horses when a stallion is skewed by fashion could be totally irrelevant. A definite current trend would be Kevin Ryan with Sleeping Indian! However, if I was looking to punt with pedigree in mind I would be concentrating largely on sires going preferences. Ground conditions to my mind is the most tangible of factors after ability is taken into account |
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thanks for the contributions.
I didn't ignore conformation dominion but its something I neither have an expertise in nor do I attend many sales. I make the assumption that certain horses that make decent money (and you try to ignore some of potm's pitfalls such as fashion, hype and other extraneous factors such as the sire being articifially boosted)then you can safely make the assumption that, say, a horse making a decent multiple of his cost, must surely be a decent specimen. I do have friends who are breeders and pinhookers and their approach to buying and selling is as individual as themselves. sageforms stats are critical as is the winner/runner strike rates e.g. if you are selecting a yearling whose sire has decent stats over particular distances on certain ground then you are surely giving yourself a decent chance. If I get the time I will start my selection process and post a few findings over time. |
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potm: on re-reading your post (properly!) I see that I have merely repeated most of the points you made so apologies.
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I'm surprised you read my post atall R.A., I'm not sure I'd bother
 Good luck with your research, my most significant point would be to ignore the unproven sire as his best sales horses may still be useless along with his cheapies. |
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POTM - two words,New Approach.
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given its sales season it might be interesting for those with an interest to note how well Invincible Spirit and Cape Cross are doing, both standing in 2012 for reasonable fees given they are proven and both have sons at stud who could make it or equally fail.
IS is on a real upward curve and is now fully in fashion with Coolmore and Darely buting with gusto for good moving types, given how 2yr olds are all the fashion IS is right up that street and his best horses tpically dont race beyond a mile so even more fashionable! CC is on the up again, his fee is 35k in 2012 but with sts going to have his 1st crop any succeess will see CC's stock rises, CC is more than a 1 trick pony and Darley are really getting behind him now so maybe last year was the time to us him but i do think his stock will sell very well next year and year after. Pivitol doing well with 2 lots making 500k in last 2weeks but i think this might be 2 very well related lots but if we have another bad summer these 2 could well get G1's (i was at goffs and saw that lot, was so impressed, he looked big enough and had the head of a 2year old, should have made more!) With the success of New approach id be seriously thinking about Alfred Noble a few early winners and 2 or 3 runners at royal ascot and his 2nd and 3rd crop will make a handsome profit, |
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DMCK regarding CC so far 3 gone through ring book 1 120k 190k and a filly 90k
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invincible spirit fillies going through the roof with coolemore buying up at any price
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