Nathaniel

Fair play to them for having a go, but I'm a little surprised that they've gone for him. When I think of Newsells, my first impression is that they are a very commercial outfit, but nothing, absolutely nothing about Nathaniel suggests to me that he'll be popular with breeders looking to make a quick return on their investment. Of course, being by Galileo he'll have his supporters, but I think he'd need to be winning G1s over a maximum of 10 furlongs this year to get people excited. I'd pitch him between 9K-10K (Watch me eat my words after he wins an Eclipse, July Cup, Irish Champion Stakes and BC Mile, then retires with a price tag of 25K!).

I don't know Johnny,with sons of Galileo doing well and all the time remaining popular I can see the attraction,but I do think your point is valid.I could see first crop foals selling well.In the back of my mind he sort of reminds me a little of Kings Theatre.
I would expect we may see him running in the Eclipse so he might get his 10 furlong win yet.

This is a horse that should have been wound up early doors for a Ganay or a Tatts Gold Cup maybe? Then leave him off and bring him back for an Arc. His best chance of winning a big one is probably the Bredders Cup turf I'd guess. There is usually a good one turning up for the Irish Champion, I think we're due a classy renewal and I'd say there'd be a good Coolmore middle distance colt (not Camelot) or maybe something like Oxx's Taker who would do him giving the weight at 1m2f. His King george looks like dodgy form to me.

We could look at this another way. If he retired tomorrow, what would he stand for? I know plenty of Irish jumps boys that would like him.

he is a nice colt but hasn't won over less than 12 furlongs and didn't win at 2. If he is priced right he might be worth a chance and you may be getting some class into you mare but there will probably be more attractive Galileo's for the commercial market. I think the problems with Galileo's is that if they win at 2 at a decent grade they all seem to train on and become superstars (if they are allowed to) which puts them out of my reach. What we need is one to win a G2/3 at 2 and ghet unlucky and only manage a listed win at 3. It seems that G  is going to make a great sire of sires so something like that could be great value.

he is a nice colt but hasn't won over less than 12 furlongs and didn't win at 2. If he is priced right he might be worth a chance and you may be getting some class into you mare but there will probably be more attractive Galileo's for the commercial market. I think the problems with Galileo's is that if they win at 2 at a decent grade they all seem to train on and become superstars (if they are allowed to) which puts them out of my reach. What we need is one to win a G2/3 at 2 and ghet unlucky and only manage a listed win at 3. It seems that G  is going to make a great sire of sires so something like that could be great value.

Not much to add to all the posted comments really. It seems a bit strange to me.

I think given the timing, Newsells seem to have shelled out x million on the strength of 4 scrubby April/May 2yos sired by Sixties Icon! An encouraging start by S.I. but sufficiently unexpected to be not enough to persuade me of Galileo as the invincible sire of sires.

I don't see Galileo as very different to Sadlers really in as much as I suspect the later maturing types like Nathaniel might have the most potential to be successful sires but it will be the faster slightly atypical ones that will suck the support from those true representitives and so perhaps neither will win with any regularity.

Anyway, what on earth will Newsells do if he fizzles out with just last years results to market?

Seems like good bit of business to keep them from having to flog any of their decent wine for a while.  Newsells have a family connection thru a very useful daughter of Playful Act and the owner has a full sister to Nathaniel so can flog him and still get some more upside if he has a good season (I cant see him winning at 10f) so its another King G or the Arc.  I'll stick to the fast one at Newsells for now thanks.

Well with Newsells Park I suppose they want a new stallion with Mount Nelson now having his first runners and Equiano facing soon his 3rd season,and all the time wanting a son of a very popular commercial sire.Who would they go for?With early sons of Oasis Dream at near saturation and Invincible Spirit now like Oasis Dream needing a classic horse.Even a son of Dansili but do breeders really think he's going to be a great sire of sires a reliable one who gets 2 y'olds?I'm not so sure.So a son of Galileo fits the bill.But just who has them?Coolmore and Darley are about the only ones who do and there not going to sell a top flight one,so Nathaniel comes into play.
Connections will support Nathaniel like they have with the other two and I'd think he will get good looking foals.He's maybe not the most obvious commercial prospect in terms of trip but I also think he might do better than breeders on here seem to think.A large help to any stallion is the quality of their mares and Newsells have a decent band to work from.I'd rather him than Mount Nelson,plenty seemed to like his chances one I could see later plying his trade in Germany.

Well Prima. I'm glad you've turned this around into a discussion on 'well what else can they do?' As the disciple of 2yo 2yo 2yo I think you've not got many a leg to stand on where Nathaniel is concerned! I don't see Dansili as perhaps a place to go for 2yo futures but I reckon at the commercial end he is more likely to come up with something than Galileo. I think the only way Nathaniel can be remotely commercial after year 3 is if he is absolutely top class and firing in Racing Post trophy types to reward a patient (very wealthy) buyer.

I don't discount him in year 1, indeed I don't discount anything in year 1, but at the moment he is very tricky in my eyes.

I get where you are coming from with Newsells nearing a tricky time. I am in the same boat with my mares but I'm damned if I'm leaving a sale with a filly/mare that I don't like! I too agree that their broodmare band must be some sort of help. It's hard to know how there stud will develop though and it I am sure, is a subject of some fascination for many in the game. Now they have been in the process of de-Icecapadeing and Anti-Lord Avieing the milliondollar 'Acton Years' and generally Warrening the set-up for a while now, it is massively interesting, for me anyway, to see the results.

Whats Equiano if he's not the son of a very popular commercial sire?  Mount Nelson is a mystery to me - going to have to pull out good runners quick to sustain decent books imo. I dont have a problem with Nathaniel but I would just speculate there is more downside (financially) taking him now rather than after another proven season. The impression (before more runs) is more akin to Sixties Icon / Red Rocks / Sans Frontieres than Teofilo / New App or even Rip Van Winkle. Of the sons of Galileo out there now he'd have to be 10k or less to be on my shortlist (not being an owner breeder per se)

yer ma     25 May 12 20:37 
Whats Equiano if he's not the son of a very popular commercial sire?

Exactly, Yer Ma. So what can they follow him with? Popular sire lines right now would be,Oasis Dream,I Spirit,Acclamation,Dansili,Galileo.OD,IS and Dansili I have commented on above. They have a good son of Acclamation, so that just leaves Galileo. As far as taking him now rather than at the end of the season perhaps it is just a case of getting in when they can. If the word is out that Nathaniel is looking for a stallion home then they need to act if they want him, and if it wasn't and they waited for him to perhaps turn into something very good on the racetrack there is the danger of the Dubai (and now more so Qatar) cheque books springing into action.

It is interesting what you say about the stud development Pot'M, I feel that perhaps the commercially inexplicable acquisition of Mount Nelson was the last gasp of the old order, and the very commercial Equiano the first blow for market forces by the new guard. Looked at in that way Nathaniel could fall into either camp I suppose. But I still feel he is 'new regime'. Very commercial and popular high class sire, coupled with good page (something Equiano could be seen to be short of) Gr 1 winner and a very marketable 2nd placing at 2yo to Frankel. Mount Nelson was none of those things, but still sold well as in-foal mares, foals and yearlings. Breeze-ups finally caught up him though!

No-one would say he is the *most* commercial horse they could have bought, but I wouldn't write him off to the jumping game just yet!

Clearly I would in no way suggest a cynical take on this lad missing what might have been (but is definitely not now) an easier shot at a 10f win.

Quite happy to say got this entirely wrong - fair play to connections (including Newsells) - Galileo well on way to putting his dad in the shade.  Hope they dont go bonkers on the fee.

Today, I was impressed. He kept pulling it out, was a shade comfortable and presumably gets to improve. Seemed quite correct walking in and I think Newsells have made a good move. Mind you, given how much the Rothschilds have thrown at the game they might have fancied quite a large fistful, when the Coffee bean Barons came a calling.

Sixties Icon and New Approach have just proved such a revelation in the precocious stakes that I think Nathaniel will have more goodwill than his type might have usually enjoyed over the last 10 years or so.

How much do you think his fee will be if he goes on from yesterday?Now he has a GR1 win over ten furlongs I think perhaps 15/20k.If he wins another King George and or the 'Arc even 25/30k.Is he sort you would send a mare to for that sort of money?

jeez i was think 12-15k but maybe you are right.  Huge risk at 20-25k imo, not sure who you're buyers (esp at as foals) would be at that level.  Another King G doesnt make too much diff in my eyes - facing up again to Frankel (esp if its soft) would be the career & fee defining moment but fair enough to avoid. That said I reckon he simply outstayed a mixed bag of performers.  Hard to see Twice Over proximity too positively (given he will be Frankel's second leg pacemaker at York)

I cannot quite decide how to answer this. I think the figures quoted are a little steep perhaps. I am really not sure though. A glittering season is needed to get to 30k I think because of no 2yo stakes form.

For me he needs to be sexy and high profile AND his fee needs to be under 20k. I don't really think he is a horse that will ever be safe over about 15.

My post crossed with yer ma, due to slow typing, and the tennis!

i guess 20k first season -can the market handle above this price -and what price sixties icon next year? 8-10K

20k might well be more like it,and perhaps a second KG win wouldn't greatly enhance his appeal.But if he does win the 'Arc could he then push on to 30ish'k.
Sixties Icon I think will get a price rise,I could expect to see him at 6.5/7k......they will want to be cautious with him I'd guess.Pricing him to highly will stand a real chance of killing off his appeal.But if his do go on next year and even better results from his next crop of 2 y'olds then he will fall into line with the other sons of Galileo.

Such a pity Nathaniel was not given the chance to run in the Epsom Derby , in his 3yo career.

I can only see improvement from Nathaniel if he stays healthy. I am a huge fan of his despite not winning at 2yo. He was very unlucky to meet Frankel and Picture Editor in his 2 maidens. I am not in the commercial breeding world these days but how much does it matter that there will be several Group winners by Galileo at stud at the same time?

Well there you have it. I had the distinct feeling with all the bravado and talk of a syndication with leading breeders that they were going to be a bit fruity with the fee.

TWENTY fecking GRAND.

Count me out out out!

Here was me lining up a nathaniel / Equiano for £12k angle.....str8 to owner breeder territory, do not pass go.

Does make Sixties Icon look VFM, and well done Sammy Fool spot on July 8th.

This seems a big step up for the stud. I think Galileo's are going to retire at a premium for a year or two. He has become a sire of sires over the last year in many peoples eye's (rightly or wrongly).

He's not really the type to throw a value commercial type like DD or OD. Can't see many winning a 2yo race at Ascot and not training on as a 3 year old.

Not being a commercial breeder, I do wonder where the sprinting mares are going to be sent if all the sires are from the sprinter/miler category. My stats show that Galileo has had his best ever year in terms of total GB races won as well as being miles the best for Group wins. He is always remarkably consistent. Look at the 2011 Champion Stakes result-he reproduced the form with Snow Fairy and Cirrus des Aigles to within 2lb this season, despite a long break for injury. £20k in the current climate still seems a lot though.

Sorry if that reads a bit ambiguously. "He" means Nathaniel