Mount Nelson

In my humble opinion.....depends if you plan on selling the offspring as a foal or a yearling. I think Mount Nelson might get off to a slow start with his 2yos next year (when you would then sell your foal) but that things could be looking up the following year (when selling your yearling).I just think a big horse ex a Selkirk mare is not going to get precosious stock.

I'd prefer to take a gamble on a sire that could make a splash with his 2yo's as they tend to climb the ranks much faster if it comes off. The sires at the same point of their careers that i might consider gambling on would be; Ravens Pass, Haatef, Sakhee's Secret.

But we'll have a better idea after their first yearlings hit the sales.

Thanks Wilycayote

I tend to agree with you about MN's stock improving. I have  Mr Prospector line mare from the family of Pivitol who never raced until 3 herself (rated 82. She is a good looking correct mare about 16'2. I think that MN is a very good looking stallion and I would be hopefull of a nice looking yearling (as we all are), but I just dont know whether people think he will have a chance or not.

I like Sakhees Secret and have an American bred mare that I think will suit him. She is a bit leggy and weak and he looks the type to put that right in her foals. I have also been considering showcasing (stands with SS) for next year as I may get a better deal sending them to the same stud.

truehoncho, you seem to be majoring on some sires at a very dodgy time in their careers!

With a good looking mare standing at 16.2, a trip to Mount Nelson might produce a strapping good looking yearling. However as I'm sure is at the back of your mind there must be a significant chance of something ocean going. Too much chance for me.

I don't love M N on any score I'm afraid. Pedigree or performance, although I admit he is good looking - but I'm reminded slightly of a H.I.S stallion standing with Louis Massarella (you might not be old enough! )

I too suspect that Sakhee's Secret is a good tool to make changes with a mare. He has done a very encouraging job with the ones I have seen. Yrlgs should confirm that, but 2yos?

PotM

Not really majoring just considering. As they have only just been covered for this year I'm just trying out ideas for next. Also the weather is particulaly foul here in Scotland today so the PC is the warmest place to be.

I dont know the H.I.S stallion but I think I agree with you about MN. However, I am not too hung up about a third season sire as with my budget I cant afford the must have first season sires. The opportunity to breed with something a a bit better is worth the risk as if I get lucky other than the any sales premium there's every chance I will improve the profile of my mares.

As for size, I cant shrink her and as long as I dont send her to something taller than herself it shouldn't make that much difference. I dont believe that a 15 hands stallion covering a 16 hands mare will equal a 15.5 hands offspring.

I walk them in myself so I am looking to stay in England and theres not much about, hence my post.

Truehoncho, I know the feeling about trying to 'change' a mares size through a mating, it can be fiendishly difficult. I don't think there are many giant Holy Romans about mind (stand to be corrected) so there are sires out there I think.

I get your point about the must have at covering 1st season sires as they are sometimes hard to get to and they sometimes look expensive too. However they will always have a re-shuffle when the 1st offspring hit the sales and the must haves at the sales sometimes spring quite a surprise.

We must all keep searching for the value - it's out there!

PotM
thanks for the comments, its a long way off and there may well be more options closer to the time. In the meantime anyone with any suggestions please feel free....

Wilycayote,
I think I'd take note of what Pot M has said,because if I had a mare standing 16.2hh I'd be very careful of using a stallion who has a giant for his dams sire and one also who is not known for getting early sorts.
Mount Nelson is nice looking that's true but I can't help in thinking he was a lucky winner of a poor Eclipse and his sire would put me off as the Rock has not been any great success to date,but he does have the support of Newsells so that's something,but are those mares the sort who are going to make him viable in terms of every truly being commercial?
Like you I doubt he is going to hit the ground running so by the time you sell your potential yearling he may as you seem to think improve but then again and what would be a massive risk to me the odds are he will be dead in the water.Another thing to remember when you are into the commerciality of a sire is not just the results it is also the perception of those results. For example Shirocco has had several stakes winners (albeit abroad) but I cannot see Shirocco being commercial this year. HRE has done ok but the impression he has left is one of disappointment, so again I don't forsee a big scramble for his stock. MN could fall into this trap, as he is somewhat surprisingly attracting decent mares and with his stud behind him, expectation for his first crop 2yo and 3yo will prob be higher than an initial look at his staying pedigree would indicate (Sleeping Indian anyone....?). When he then throws to his family ( as I believe they do) there will be disappointment and the inevitable face saving of 'knowing he wasn't going to make it'.

So having said all that I should I suppose come up with some alternatives. Well if you want a good winner producer for not much money that can throw up a good 'un who also gets good lookers then there is Monsieur Bond. Norton Grove stud shouldn't be too out of the way for you to get your mare to from Scotland either. Alternatively if you are wanting to speculate on better crops running in your favour there is neat correct and racy Firebreak that is a proven sire of grp class 2yos. Very flexible fee should help you out as well. If you are wanting to run on the coat tails of first crop fever then you could look at Equiano. Personally I have my doubts on his pedigree and he is not a good walker, but the sire line is red hot so could be worth a shout.

Incidentally True Honcho, I too have been avoiding the weather today and enjoying the golf. It is raining now they want to get on with combining the wheat that couldn't grow because we had no rain!

Not for the 1st time I wished I had been in France where my sister is holidaying. I could have taken in the racing at Vichy where they had a Listed race of interest to the Irish Stallion men - amongst others.

I'm not giving too much thought to Stallion picking yet because decisions are pretty difficult until the 1st seasoners crawl out of the woodwork.

PD

sorry for the delay in responding. I took your advice previously and went with my other mare to Monsieur Bond and she is now in foal to him. He was just the type of stallion I was looking for. As I said earlier she is from an American family (Hansel out of a Mt Livermore mare) and she is a bit light and leggy.

After some thought I think MN may not be ideal. What does everyone think about Paco Boy. Do you think I could get him for under 5k next year.

PotM

Iknow how you feel about the wheat. I have had to miss my contractors spot to get the hay cut and with so much rain they will stuggle to fit us all in!!

I don't think Paco will get down to 5k next year truehoncho. They've done a great job getting mares to him this year and on paper there are many that I would've thought were too good for him. John Warren has a ton of good points and that sort of thing is one of them. (obviously 10 tons of bad points) so I think he'll hold up quite well in year 2.

I would think it would be emminently possible to wait and see some foals though before having to commit. Because of his ordinariness - of looks and pedigree - I think that is a must.

Truehoncho,Err if the mare is light and leggy and with a bit of an out cross pedigree then for me Paco Boy good as he was I'd be looking elsewhere,much as we all say we need out cross sorts as a rule when it comes to the sale ring we can go a bit cold sticking to what we know rather than bucking the trend.
If you only walk in and stay in the UK,what about Bahamian Bounty at 10k he is a touch expensive but think he's available for less,gets plenty of sharp sorts that are strong and if you live in Scotland I guess you sell at Doncaster they love them there so he might suit you.
If you are staying in the UK I'm afraid you choices are pretty moderate and well done for using Monsieur Bond he's having a great season and is outstanding value,like you we have one in-foal to him one from a very current and high class family.
Oh yes sorry to get you mixed up with poster  Wilycayote I really must slow down when reading posts.

Thanks PD

It was the other mare I was looking to Paco Boy with but your points are well made. I do like Bahamian Bounty but he is probably outside my budget, I tried this season but they wouldnt come down much. I have £ mares to cover (1 National Hunt) and my budget is pretty tight.

I am going to look into the costs of transport to Ireland and see what options I may have. I agree its not great here.

Incidentally I see Multiplex covered 110 mares in his 3rd season, were his foals that good or was it the lack of options over here?

truehoncho,You have far more choice over here than in the UK,but I'm not sure how much you would be paying to get them over here and back I'd allow about 1k,Bushranger has had about 170 ish mares using him 3rd season could be worth a punt as if he does well with his first runners you could sell the foal or if you like to do so and take the chance selling as a yearling.I don't know what your mare's page is like but I'd expect to pay about 4k next year and as he made £100k at Doncaster he is a very good sort who does get good foals we have a few of his they are all nice one filly is superb.See what you think,I know its hard on a modest budget.

truehoncho, it's tough to go over there for a cheapie!

I paid e650 to get a mare and foal over there and yes, the same to get'em back, this year. And if you're lucky - like I was - and they come back empty and you add keep and vets and walking in costs at a posh stud, well it's truely cr@p.

It's possible to do it a bit cheaper and I daresay a lot of the Irish boys will throw in a bit of keep at the more workmanlike end. But I would recommend that for a cheaper horse over there you must forget Kildangan, Coolmore, Derinstown and Yeomanstown as I just don't see how you can make it work.

I'm sure that Tally ho are the best bet, but it's going to add thousands not hundreds to your costs I'm afraid.

Over here, Bushrangers equivalent, Myboycharlie has obvious disadvantages. Venue, soft ground, less support obviously. But massive similarities and a non-saturation of the market. He's cheap as chips and I reckon I wouldn't saddle myself with double the cost for Bushranger perhaps. Can we really be certain that Bushranger win hands down? No one knows until those foals step out at Goffs and then Tatts!

I think we do have cheapies over here who are identical to cheapies over in Ireland. And whilst choice is nothing like as large, nor are the costs involved. Youve got to be really smitten. . .

I am big on Showcasing as I think he has a stamp and pedigree that I think should be very versatile on all types of mares. At the risk of endless repetition it's difficult to go proven at the 5k level isn't it as they are usually commercially very tired aren't they.

Bertolini and Kheleyf are cranking in the winners though so I suppose there's always a chance that they could be hitting a hot spot at the right moment.

I'd always be looking at 1st season with the 5 granders. Something will come out of the woodwork.

More food for thought!

PotM I like Kheleyf as a value stallion (Iknow PD doesn't). I think there are trainers that will buy a cheapish yearling by him as he is a fair bet to get a winner if not a stakes horse. I was talking to a senior northern trainer recently who said he was looking for a yearling last year but there were very few decent ones available, I think he is doing ok this term and may win the Molecomb tomorrow. I used him this year as his 2010 book was large and reportedly good quality, so heres hoping....

On the whole I think 5k mark in Ireland, I think that over here it may not be the worst strategy to pick a third season sire that you consider will get two year olds and take a punt providing you can get them cheap enough. I must say that I do like Bushranger and Showcasing. Depending on what becomes available they would both be good options ( the mare is closely related to the dam of Arafa who is a Danzig line stallion - hence Kheleyf).

I think if your selling you should look at Equiano as PD said the sire line is red hot if it continues trainers and agents will want them only worry is that if it does continue it might be out of reach for you. I cant really think of many others for you to use but then again you must think about first season sires so maybe leave your decision late or try get into Equiano early.

We used Bushranger last year aswell and are quite happy but it was a huge book and obviously there are good and bad and if the people who put down sires so easily get the bad ones from his first crop it will not help him and thats where you should be cautious.

RVW

Due to high expectations, I think Equiano may go cold very quickly if he does not have a good first season which will leave me struggling with my moderately bred yearling. I prefere Showcasing as his half brother Camacho done quite well in his first season and at half the price may be a better bet for me. I think equiano may well get under 5k in his third season however and I may take the chance then!!

I may be dragging this thread on a bit but I find it useful. I am of the mind that for my budget and the quality of my mare a second or third season sire is worth the risk, which is why I began the thread.

You're not dragging the thread out truehoncho, only the fools that answer you can do that

I won't really get stuck into the theme until after the summer but as you say allways good to have the problem in the back of your mind.

Acclamation is hot at the moment, but as with any investment, the value of your holding can go up or down! Perhaps we should all pay more attention to not piling in at the top. It will certainly knock on to Equiano next spring and I think your 5k goal might be just out of reach.

I too like having a punt on stallions before they have runners, coz when it comes off it can come off big time. Took a gamble on Dutch Art and it looks like it might pay off. Red clubs is doing well too.

I know I may have said it before, but my gamble for next year might be Sakhee's Secret since he beat both the above in the July Cup fairly comfortably. Might have a go at Tamayuz next year as well.

Hello Wilycayote

As i saied earlier i think SS would suit one of my mares. Another plus point for using a third season stallion is that there wont be as many yearlings about when you come to sell.

Based on the fact that it is not unusual to see stud fees half the price of their first season, would I be over optimistic to get him for 3.5K next year?

You're potentially 4th season with Sakhees Secret and that may be a good idea as it will allow him to have 3yo's if you sell as a yearling. I don't really see him as an out and out 2yo sire personally but I am keen on him. He's not been an easy sell for Whitsbury I don't think so next year could be a cheapie. I reckon he'll post some pretty solid yearling sales this year though so he could well do a Sir Percy in my view and find himself that rare commodity of a horse at his most popular in year 4.

It occurs to me that looking to sell of the back of a 1st seasoners results gets ever more tricky.
It was ok for Ifraaj last year at the sales obviously, but those underneath weren't quite so rosy.
I think you need to be quite confident of your crystal ball!

You are right PotM, lookoing at the current first season sire table (although a long way to go), the ones at the top may well be not be as expected.

Any idea how many SS got in his first season?

116 mares year 1 truehoncho but that dropped to 70 in year 2.

Agree with Pot M, using SS in 2012 would mean selling the offspring as a yearling after he has had 3yo's which could work nicely.

116 mares first season could be a good number; enough to get him plenty of runners, but not so much that every trainer has had one. I expect we will get a chance to see a good few of them at Doncaster.

Wilycayote, I agree that 116 mares is a great number. As I daresay I have mentioned before ( christ I even bore myself - how you guys cope. . .) Utopia would have all stallions restricted to 110 mares. Enough for a fair representation on the track and few enough for everyone to get a shot and trainers to be not totally hacked off by year 3.

I'm not sure I agree about the numbers, it seems to me the more there are the more chance that a few trainers will get good ones. However I take the point about SS, it occures to me that if he has a good first crop that do well as 2 year olds I could sell as a foal but wait to sell as a yearling if not. It seems like a strategy to mke!!

Most stallions turn out to be no good truehoncho. Then ofcourse you get the useful stallions that don't quite have the right attributes to be useful commercially and then you get the ones that don't do much wrong but they fall out of favour purely through fashion and whispers.

The negative vibe on a horse is always so persuasive to the market and a massive book just escalates that in my opinion. If trainers don't get to try a stallion becuse of a smaller book and that stallion goes onto success with others, then the others remain keen and the guy that missed out gets jealous! If there's a ton of average out there then that's a ton of indifferent buyers.

It's a balancing act, which is why I think that 110 gives a chance but also limits the damage!

Itake your point PotM, I suppose the quality of the mares is the key factor.

Is there somewhere i can find out what mares visited SS (or any other stallion) in his first season. As I mentioned earlier Multiplex got 110 in his third season is that unusual? I would obviously prefer to be one of very few.

I don't know of a website for mare details I'm afraid. Obviously the Return of Mares from Weatherbys publications is well worth the £35 or so it costs as it's a constant reference, but I appreciate it's a bit of a gulp purchase perhaps. Look on the website though as the out of date issues could be cheaper?