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DMCK
11 Feb 11 22:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Aug 08
| Topic/replies: 426 | Blogger: DMCK's blog
PP, Ladbrokes and Boyles have opened books on 2011 freshman sire http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/2011-flat-season/top-first-season-sire-by-wins
i cant understand why Excekkant art and Teofilo are priced incorrectly with Teo having 114 of racing age and excellant art having 105, in contrast Dark angle and  has 92 yet is lower in the betting and hasnt the same connections. Dylan Thomas @14's is a interesting prospect as he wasnt a typical Danehill and didnt win a G1 or G2 as a 2year old
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Report potentialmillionaire February 11, 2011 11:25 PM GMT
May I humbly suggest that Manduro and Three Valleys at the same price is - now how can I put this -

Also Authorized at 20's but Jeremy at 33's !
Report DMCK February 11, 2011 11:50 PM GMT
can anyone explain red clubs? i cant see how he is the market leader
Report SEAGRAM91 February 12, 2011 12:25 AM GMT
.
Report potentialmillionaire February 12, 2011 1:30 PM GMT
There are 6 stallions priced up between 4's and 7 0r 8 so I think it's safe to say that the market is some way off formed yet DMCK.

It doesn't look like the bookies are much in the know as to how the 2yo's are looking but maybe they are. Red Clubs ran 9 times at 2 starting out in March. He was tough and sound, has a satisfactory ammount of 2yo's to represent him so he sits reasonably happily with the other guestimates at this point in the season doesn't he?
Report RipVanWinkle February 13, 2011 5:04 PM GMT
I saw a couple of Teofilos this week and they have quite big frames which take a long time to fill out. I'm really looking forward to the Excellent Arts as they where very nice and correct. Amadeus Wolf has a nice bunch to run they look the part but only when there on the track we'll no for sure.

I'm not the biggest fan of Red Clubs and have never used him but he was tough and early which was is wanted commercially. I've used Dylan Thomas but cant see him doing it this year and am a bit sceptic of him in general now after seeing a few unsatisfactory couple of 2 year olds and yearlings but he was as tough on the track so maybe his progeny will be alright. Cant see Three Valleys doing it not sure what his book was like. I'm looking forward to seeing what Rail Link can do had one by him and you couldnt fault him which is why he got a good homeMischief

Cant see Manduro doing it at all and was never a fan of Dark Angel i dont know why though but he was well supported and i'd like to see him to well for all connected.
Report AntoineDoinel February 14, 2011 4:35 AM GMT
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Report DMCK February 14, 2011 5:31 PM GMT
i have read something about Teo's yearling looking like "stock horses" but he was an awesome high class 2year old (i remember reading an RP article with JSB and he was very adminat that Teo would be a success but i take that with a pinch of salt as he most likely has a number of nominations) and while the season starts in April(ish) it goes onto november. HRE looked like he had wrapped it up last year old for Iffani to put in a wonderful July to November. The excellant art's seem to be getting rave reviews and the Coolmore emails say AOB has 4, Hannon has 4 2 for Sir M Stoute and i think Cecil has 1 plus he has 100 foals of racing age. i was wondering if Dylan could be the surprise as a danehill he has every chance but unfortunate to hear that his 2yr and yearling werent up to what you thought they might be RVW
Report potentialmillionaire February 14, 2011 6:16 PM GMT
I love Excellent Art. He is in the top 3 best looking of Coolmore sires and oozes class. However he is perhaps a little on the leg for a nailed on 2yo sire type although he was one himself. I think if Jamie Spencer had timed his runs a little better and we all had 3 or 4 Gp 1 wins to remember we might be more positive now.

I cannot see Dylan Thomas making any impression on this particular competition but the fact is with the mares he has covered - quantity and quality - he must get a good few winners back end if he has any pretensions to be a top sire.
Report neill d February 15, 2011 12:46 PM GMT
Always though Dylan Thomas was a smashing looking racehorse, are his foals too big/ backward looking or something, or is he just not really stamping them?
Report DMCK February 16, 2011 11:14 PM GMT
i assume everyone got their coolmore PR email today, DT's looked smart on the gallops but sadly counts for nothing. I still think that being a son of Danehill he could get a few early ones aswell as a back end winners.

i agree about excellant art but the question looms about pivitol as a sire of sires
Report the_piglet March 1, 2011 2:16 AM GMT
i have always found this market very interesting but have no real knowledge of breeding.  where is everyone getting their foal numbers for the stallions from?

i want to get involved with a bet but feel unqualified without knowing the number of potential runners each stallion may have.

can anyone shed any light?
Report Black Sam Bellamy March 1, 2011 5:05 PM GMT
I'd say that market isn't far wrong. It's total number of wins, not quality.
Report Derbyshire Racing March 4, 2011 10:17 PM GMT
echo of light will sire some good ones
Report Prima Donna March 4, 2011 10:22 PM GMT
^^^^^at some later point in his life!Doubt with his mares he will figure much as a sire of  the ever important 2 y'olds.
Report potentialmillionaire March 4, 2011 10:33 PM GMT
What's with Jeremy at 40's ?

Anyone any ideas? It seems to me that whilst there are plenty of reasons why you perhaps wouldn't have him as a front runner that seems to be a price that gives a pretty negative impression indeed.
Report RipVanWinkle March 9, 2011 10:27 PM GMT
Sure they needed mares that got early types, when you look at that you'd have to fancy Amadeus Wolf and Dark Angel not so much Teofilo, but i presume that is the kind of mare that Jeremy got aswell so maybe those odds are big but it is a very competitive year when you look at it. Did you ever use Excellent Art Potm we used him a couple of times and where delighted with what we got by him they where so correct, same cant be said about some stallions offspring on the list above.
Report potentialmillionaire March 10, 2011 8:42 PM GMT
No I've not used Excellent Art Ripvan. I am very interested to see which way he goes for sure though. I didn't have a mare at that level for his 1st year and as you know I try to avoid the intermediate years if possible.

I imagine the trainers will be getting a handle on some of these 1st seasoners by now. I imagine if you are an owner with Hannon say, you could perhaps have an educated bet on this market.
Report blackcaviar March 14, 2011 12:55 PM GMT
Excellent Art, Dark Angel and Amadeus Wolf. I think it is between these three.
The market is certainly wide open in this regard.
If you look at the winners over the last few years Ifraaj, Invincible Spirit, Kheleyf they all had speed and produced precocious fast two year olds. As you have pointed out this market is about number of individual winners in Ireland and the UK. It is not about prize money or G1s.
In this market, rule out the horses that are likely to produce 3yos, had low numbers on the ground or if their progeny will end up in France. Lawman for example was a French Derby winner but perhaps some of his progeny will end up in France !!!
The Amadeus Wolfs look really good as do the Excellent Arts. Dark Angel was a fast two year old himself and retired at two I think. Amadeus is by Mozart and the Danzig/Green Desert line has dominated this market in recent years....
Report blackcaviar March 14, 2011 12:58 PM GMT
Why havent Bet Fair a market on this yet. Then it will get really interesting !!!
Report jmc27 March 19, 2011 5:02 PM GMT
Dark Angel and Red Clubs have their first runners at the Curragh tomorrow!
Report DMCK March 20, 2011 12:28 AM GMT
was encouraged that Teofilo and Dylan Thomas had 5day decs, didnt think we'd being seeing any till after royal ascot
Report potentialmillionaire March 25, 2011 8:13 PM GMT
I notice that Dylan Thomas is now 4/1 joint favourite for the title now he's had one scrape home on the A/w!

But in such an incredibly open contest 7 of them are only available at less than 10's so I think it's safe to say that no-one but the bookies is going to win this one perhaps!
Report neill d March 25, 2011 10:03 PM GMT
5 furlongs thogh and the Dam was running over 1m2f
Report DMCK March 29, 2011 6:26 PM BST
i opted for Dylan @14's & excellant art @13-2 but it, Teofilo is having dec's every weeks so maybe his offspring are more forward than once suspected
Report sammy_fool April 6, 2011 6:19 PM BST
dark angel has second winner

should be a tight year as red clubs and dutch art have lots of runners as well

who will be the star first season sire this year?

i still fancy lawman abit along with dark angel.
Report David Fishwick Minibus Sales April 7, 2011 6:12 PM BST
a first winner for multiplex today
Report fuzzyone April 10, 2011 5:04 PM BST
Teofilo winner at leopardstown.
Report David Fishwick Minibus Sales April 14, 2011 8:03 PM BST
winners so far for: Amadeus Wolf, Dark Angel, Dutch Art, Dylan Thomas, Lawman, Multiplex, Red Clubs, Teofilo.
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