May foal 2yo's FTO in Sep/Oct

May not My

PHS,

I have a answer for you eventually.

From 1996 to end of 2009.

A total of 16028 two year olds made their racecourse debut in September or October. Of those 1568 were May foals, of those 81 won on debut.

By comparison of those 16028 foals there were 914 debut winners who were not born in May.

Thanks Equimine

Suprisingly, much less difference than I thought there would be.
May foal 5.2% strike rate
Not May foal 6.3% strike rate

Maybe by Sep/Oct the May foals have started to catch up with the early foals.

My trainer doesn't get unduly worried about foaling dates as he says that by and large by midsummer they have evened up. When you think about it a May foal to an April foal will differ by only 30 days or less and by this time they have seen around 800 days of existance with all sorts of circumstances bombarded at them, many presumably much outweighing a birth date.

I am of the belief that foals born april/may thrive much better than foals born Jan/Feb. I also believe weaning a foal under six months old is detrimental to its future development.

The Gotchee, hopefully the boffins will come up with the correct stats but from memory, January foals are definitely not the highest achievers. I think that Feb foals maybe do have the best record though.
Ofcourse the problem is as you probably know, is that the stud season is relatively short and before you know it a mare will have backed herself up and be needing a rest year so that is why we feel pressure to start early.
I'm not with you on weaning I'm afraid, I'm always keen to be re-educated though so would love to hear your thinking. Has research not shown that a mares milk has comprehensively deteriorated by 5 months?
I weaned a filly yesterday at precisely 5 months. She remained in the field with her tribe, has not so much as whinnied once for her mother and is as ravenous as ever for her expensive, expertly formulated feed. I am as relaxed as she is that I've done the right thing by her!

I have run some numbers that I hope will be useful. These are not based on “First Time Out” just the runs related to month of birth. I can narrow to First Time Out, Second etc. if required, and month of race. Hope the formatting comes out alright. It reads Month of Birth, Number of Runs, and Number of Wins.

Month             Runs        Wins
Jan            35028        2798
Feb            37212        4319
Mar            49799        5258
Apr            47653        4419
May            15238        1292
June+            318        18

The figures are from 1st Jan 1996 to end of 2009.

Whilst posting, and sort of linked to this question. I am in the process of finalising what it is proposed to be called a “Sire Precocity Index” and a “Dam Sire Precocity Index”. This will give a numerical rating to the precocity of a Sire or Dam sire’s progeny. Whilst I think we have identified markets for the indices, would it be of interest to “commercial breeders” as a method of indicating the potential early chances of a yearling/foal?

Thanks equimine for your figures - as ever -

Just a quick, and rough, calculation, ignoring the tiny June representation, shows that the Wins/Runs ratio varies from about 8% for January foals to 11.5% for Feb foals.

As a breeder not punter I suppose this doesn't represent a significant enough range for me to consider really. Would it have been based on 2yo starts incidentally?

Again as a breeder, the really interesting stat would be how likely a foal was to One, race and Two, win, sorted by month of birth. I don't suppose that is an easy one though.

I would be interested to see sire and damsire precocity figures, though I suupose as commercial breeders we would feel we have a pretty good handle on that facet of the game anyway. Your figures might show different though. . .

pot, I am in the old fashioned category when it comes to weaning a foal. I see a lot of advantages in a late weaning and I believe they outweigh the advocates of early weaning. Milk deterioration is often cited as reason to wean early but I would be of the opinion that half a loaf is better than no bread. Even if the mares milk has diminished by half, it seems illogical for that reason alone to deprive the foal of the remaining half.

I must admit I don't really see any advantages in a late weaning although I am not totally anti.
I've got a nearly 7 monther to do tommorow for practical reasons.
Mother nature however leaves it until the mare foals the next one and as none of us is about to do that I'm not sure we can really make an arbitary decision as to when is 'correct'.
I do think science has given us a helping hand, with a good knowledge on milk quality and terrific modern feeds. If you add that to good management of the foals mental welfare then I think I'm confident I'm getting it right.
Agree to differ methinks!

Or further debate - you decide [;)]

Potm,

Firstly, the numbers given are for all two year old runs.  In other words, the Jan figure means that January foals have run in total 35028 times (it is almost certainly more than once in most cases) and won 2798 races (again some of the horses will have won more than once). It is possible to narrow this down to say “Debut" winners of January foals etc, or 2nd time out winners etc.

The percentages are a matter of individual perspective. The average figure is 9.58% (exc. June plus), therefore, you could argue that at 11.61% you are 21% more likely to get a winner from a February foal than the average.

The third point you make  “the really interesting stat would be how likely a foal was to One, race and Two, win, sorted by month of birth”.

Ascertaining the probability of a foal racing is difficult. Purely due to issues accessing the data. I could do it very basically using coverings to runs, but I would not be happy with the data confidence levels. However, ascertaining the soundness of sires (and dam sires) is something we do, allied to their ability to produce two year old runners (or three or older for that matter) that are sound. The sire is rated over their stud career against mean performance levels.  I know Prima Donna has a view, contrary to many others, that Rainbow Quest is not a dam sire who produces sound progeny. My statistics substantiate PD’s view that Rainbow Quest’s dam sire progeny are below the norm for soundness.

Establishing the probability of foals winning in certain months based upon month of birth and the sire or damsire can be provided, it can also be categorised by debut, 2nd time out etc.

The precocity figures would be interesting, why not post a Sire and Dam Sire and I will give you a precocity rating, it would be interesting to see if we concurred.

Equimine. I would, I imagine, place my perception of a sires precocity equally in either the position of sire or broodmare sire.

Are the positions muddied by the fact that 'cheap speed' doesn't get as much chance to live on in a pedigree as it doesn't add a desirable class?

Anyway Royal Applause as your starter who I would guess to be precocious but not top 5 in your index perhaps.

Cadeaux is a useful broodmare sire, but perhaps not as high in the broodmare index as we would expect?

Weaning is such a matter of individuals that is hard to put a time frame on it. As a rule of thumb we wean at 5-6 mths but this is altered by so many factors as to be a rule in name only. The status of the mare is important, if she is in foal again we would be looking to wean ASAP without affecting the foals growth. Barren mares you can be a little morse feliable with. Themares own ability to hold weight is another big factor to consider. Some foals overtop and need knocking back,others may have had little illness that they are recovering from and providing the mother is maintaining her own body condition well those foals would be left a little longer. Also management issues come into play, is there another foal of suitable age/temp to pair the newly weaned one with? Temperamentally some foals are not confident enough to wean at 5ths, others are ready to go it alone mentally at 4mths.

It really is something to be judged on a case by case basis, and whilst foaling date can obv have an effect on racing aptitude, I don't believe this is due to the age the horse was weaned. How would anyone know outside of the stud? I have never been asked at the sales for a yearlings date of weaning.