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starspangledbanner
29 Aug 10 00:27
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Date Joined: 21 Aug 10
| Topic/replies: 927 | Blogger: starspangledbanner's blog
galileo,montjeu,sadlers wells,hardly likely is it?

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Replies: 33
By:
boba
When: 29 Aug 10 07:15
2010:
1 entry - 6th (montjeu), 19 entries 19 different sires
2009:
2 entries - 3rd + 4th (both galileo), 15 entries 13 different sires
2008:
1 entry - 2nd (galileo), 15 entries 15 different sires
2007:
0 entries - 18 different sires
2006:
1 entry - 3rd (sadlers wells) - 13 different sires

2001-2010
Dubawi (dubai mil) - Green Desert,
Cape Cross (Green Desert) - Miswaki,
Kingmambo (mr pros) - Sadlers Wells,
Val Royal (royal academy) - Known Fact,
Danehill (Danzig) - Alyseba,
Giants Causeway (Storm Cat) - Rainbow Quest,
Alhaarth (unfuwain) - Blushing Groom,
Sadlers Wells (northern dancer) - Gulch,
Danehill (Danzig) - Be My Guest,
Spectrum (rainbow quest) - Generous,
By:
boba
When: 29 Aug 10 08:40
Clearly looking at the 2000 guineas no sire seems to dominate. Looking back over the last number of years it is evident from the large selection of stallions featuring among the entries that something else is at play. It is very early in the 3 year old calendar. Coolmores headline stallions obviously get high class mares. To get a 2000 g horse it looks like they need to be pushed very hard training wise probably less likely these offspring will be forced. Danzig and Danzig line stallions seem to do pretty well which coolmore have plenty of. You could equally ask the question are you likely to get a 2000g winner from pivotal (17 year old) and oasis dreams (10 year old) versus galileo (12 year old) and montjeu (14 year old).

116      —      —      Dream Ahead      2      c      Diktat      GB      D M Simcock
116     115     115     Zoffany     2     c     Dansili     IRE     A P O'Brien
115     116     116     King Torus     2     c     Oratorio     GB     R Hannon
115     —     —     Strong Suit     2     c     Rahy     GB     R Hannon
114     113     113     Glor Na Mara     2     c     Leroidesanimaux     IRE     J S Bolger
113     —     —     Irish Field     2     c     Dubawi     SPA     M Delcher-Sanchez
112     —     —     Dunboyne Express     2     c     Shamardal     IRE     Kevin Prendergast
112     112     112     Elzaam     2     c     Redoute's Choice     GB     M A Jarvis
112     —     —     Tin Horse     2     c     Sakhee     FR     D Guillemin
111     113     113     Libranno     2     c     Librettist     GB     R Hannon
110     113     113     Approve     2     c     Oasis Dream     GB     W J Haggas
108     —     —     Broox     2     c     Xaar     FR     E J O'Neill
107     111     111     Neebras     2     c     Oasis Dream     GB     Mahmood Al Zarooni
106     109     109     Galtymore Lad     2     c     Indesatchel     GB     M R Channon
106     108     108     Wootton Bassett     2     c     Iffraaj     GB     R A Fahey
105      108      108      Crown Prosecutor      2      c      Exceed And Excel      GB      B J Meehan
105     108     106     Face The Problem     2     c     Johannesburg     GB     B W Hills
105     106     106     Formosina     2     c     Footstepsinthesand     GB     J Noseda
105      —      —      Native Khan      2      c      Azamour      GB      E A L Dunlop
105     107     107     Samuel Morse     2     c     Danehill Dancer     IRE     A P O'Brien

Above are the current top 20 2 year olds. What odds would you make it one of these winning next years 2000g. What would be your choice of stallion for a 2000g winner and how would you price the following market:
(Montjeu and Galileo) Versus (Oasis Dreams and Pivotal) Versus (Danehill Dancer and Dansili)
First to get a 2000g winner.

Incidentally Sadlers wells is the most successful 2000g sire in the last 100 years (tied with northern dancer and fairway)....
By:
boba
When: 29 Aug 10 08:47
I would price the market as follows:
1st 2000g winner draw no bet:
(Danehill Dancer or Dansilli) 2.57
(Galileo or Montjeu) 2.57
(Oasis Dreams or Pivotal) 4.2
By:
Prima Donna
When: 29 Aug 10 09:13
I doubt Sadlers Wells is now likely to get a 2000 GNS winner due to the fact he is retired and also the quality of his mares has somewhat dropped in the last few years he was covering mares,Galileo on the other hand always seems to get a large outstanding book of mares covering all trips so yes its very possible he will get a GNS winner,Montjeu is very capable of also getting a GNS winner even though he has a very much stamina laden pedigree,if you compare him to Galileo he did win a GR1 over 10f he also had a brilliant turn of foot,but a large part of the equation is down to the mares they all get,his book is always way behind his stud companion in terms of class and numbers.
This year we were all waiting to see the potentially brilliant St.Nicholas Abbey,plenty of people were saying he had no chance due to the fact he was by Montjeu,but in a way I also think Coolmore were doubting his likelihood of success for the same reasons as peoples concerns,imo they ruined his chance of success because they were very hard on him working him hard in the end I feel it backfired a bit as the horse was almost over the top by the time of the race.
So yes he too is the sort to get a GNS winner,but Galileo I suppose has the strongest hand from the Coolmore list.
I don't think Pivotal is going to get anyone a 2000 gns winner he does well with soft ground 4 y'old fillies,for a stallion standing at 65k where are his top 2 y'olds who look likely to win this classic?Oasis Dream and the other Juddmonte sire Dansili would be my choice for either of them siring a GNS winner in the near future.
By:
boba
When: 29 Aug 10 09:31
Cheers Prima Donna an inteligent post as always. Agreed I think it hard for pivotal just added as a selection of 6 headline stallions. The 2000g seems a hard classic to breed to win unlike the derby shall we say. What do you think the top 20 current 2 year olds chances are of winning the 2000G next year? 2/1?
By:
starspangledbanner
When: 29 Aug 10 10:13
thanks for the feedback,always worth reading,some very good points,agree with pd re most likely sire of a future guineas winner,ill stick my neck on the line and go with dansili :)
By:
jmc27
When: 29 Aug 10 11:10
Well Galileo already has an Irish 1000g winner in Nightime.
Chuis Gaire was a 1 1/2 lth second to Ghanaati in the 2009 1000 Guineas. Gile Na Greine was a 3/4 lth third in this years English 1000 Guineas.
New Approach was beaten a nse into second by Henry The Navigator in the 2008 2000 Guineas and Gan Amhras was third beaten by 2 1/4lths to Sea The Stars in the 2009 2000g.
Lush Lashes was a 2 lths 6th in the 1000 Guineas and went onto win the Cornation and Matron Stakes over the mile. Rip Van Winkle was 2 1/2 lths 4th to Sea The Stars and he went onto win the Sussex and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over the mile aswell.
Teofilo could have been anything.

Two things this post shows to me is Galileo with the mares he gets now is going to land a mile classic again pretty soon and if you want your Galileo offspring to do well send it to Jim BolgerLaugh
By:
Tiswallaceno7
When: 29 Aug 10 15:03
I don't think we are going to see a Montjeu/SW/Galileo winner of the 2000 Guineas.

I like the Juddmonte sire's like Dansili and Oasis Dream.

The new Godolphin Sire's are having outstanding career's so far Dubawi/Sharmadal and Iffraj(spelling).

Darley hold the aces for me in the speed catergory(1mile) over the next few years. The only real speed sire (Henrythenavigtor) for coolmore stand in the states.
By:
Tiswallaceno7
When: 29 Aug 10 16:24
Galileo 1st and 3rd in Another Group 1.

Serious Sire
By:
boba
When: 29 Aug 10 22:46
Good points Tiswall. I like Iffraaj what do people think he will stand for next year? Wootton Bassett looks a really nice sort. He is related to Katla who was 2nd to misty for me before winning a maiden in ireland on 3rd start. Its a nice story the owner bought the dam and bred these:

Unnamed     2010     C     Captain Marvelous (IRE) - Bratislava (GB)
Unnamed     2009     C     Diamond Green (FR) - Bratislava (GB)
Katla (IRE)     2008     F     Majestic Missile (IRE) - Bratislava (GB)

He couldnt sell the majestic missile so trained it himself. So far Katla has 3,2,1 the 2nd a length behind the moyglare winner misty for me. Maybe Mr Grogan will send Bratislava to Ifraaj next season. The Diamond Green is lot 471 in the goffs orby sale will be interesting to see what it makes as Wotton Bassetts half sister topped the recent DBS sale I seem to recall.
By:
starspangledbanner
When: 30 Aug 10 02:01
misty for me reminds me of peeping fawn Love
By:
neill d
When: 30 Aug 10 12:21
would be surprised if Gallileo didn't have one in England.
By:
Shark12
When: 30 Aug 10 12:39
Am confident that Galileo will sire a Guineas winner sooner or later (short headed 2nd for New Approach) but completely disagree with PD about Montjeu - his 3yos are just too slow over a mile.

Dubawi and Shamardal should get plenty of top class milers throughout their stallion careers so would not surprise me to see them bag a few (in the case of Dubawi, more) in the next 5 years.
By:
neill d
When: 30 Aug 10 12:43
Wouldn't be so sure about Montjeu Shark, I don't think it was lack of tactical speed that beat St Nick, He didn't run to his best for me
By:
Shark12
When: 30 Aug 10 13:12
Neill, perhaps, but I take the view that a lot of people were sucked in by the hype around SNA and continue to make excuses for his Guineas run.

Dont get me wrong, Montjeu is an excellent sire of middle distance champions but I just think he's had enough time at stud to sire a 3yo Group 1 miler and has failed to do so (unlike Galileo).

If you think about the host of sires that potentially could get top class milers (the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal, HTN etc) then I think that Montjeu's chances are going to be even slimmer.

The stats to date are this:

3yo horses
8f 10 - 161 6%
9f 12 - 95 13%
10f 69 - 466 15%
11f 17 - 121 14%
12f 74 - 440 16%

Says it all to me really.
By:
neill d
When: 30 Aug 10 14:49
Fair point I guess, Don't think Montjeu gets the quality of book of Gallileo though, once again though, I don't think lack of speed beat St Nick, overtraining I'd have said re: AOB and mistakes he made this year. But also it would be fair to say that St Nick isn't a typical son of Montjeu, It will depend on the mares he gets but then they have probably tried to breed speed into Montjeu quite often by now. They may have had the horse but mishandled him, even if St Nick had won, it wouldn't have changed my conception of Montjeu as a stallion, that is an excellent sire of middle distance champions
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 31 Aug 10 11:56
An interesting post. It rather backs up my feelings that despite the clamour for milers, it is actually not a true distance. The thoroughbred has historically been bred to go further but there has been an successful establishment of the sprinting lines too(although we seem to have lost our way on this score compared to the U.S and Australia).
Historically the 'best' sires have been the staying ones and certainly the most consistent.
If Galileo and Montjeu do drop down to sire Guneas types then good luck to them, but I would not look to the offspring to be reliable progenitors down the line.
The inconsistency of the sires providing a Guineas horse suggests that it is indeed a tricky place to try and establish much of a pattern. Obviously Oasis Dream is a good place to start, I'm not quite sure where Dansili lies but he wouldn't be a shoe in for me. Things like Intikhab always have a shot as do many oddbodds like him too, due to the strange nature of the task.
And Prima, lay off Pivotal a bit Grin his stock may not come to hand early enough for you, but there are still plenty of wealthy people out there who enjoy the slightly longer term game. Since 2000 he's had more European Stakes winners, more Gp1 winners and a higher AEI than your beloved Danehill Dancer. And ofcourse from a lot less foals and runners - and you won't need telling whose percentages are better too!!  One size doesn't fit all you know Laugh
By:
Tiswallaceno7
When: 01 Sep 10 12:48
Galileo is just running away with things at the moment. Montjeu does not get the same patronage as Galileo for sure but Montjeu can't cover the bases like Galileo.  Montjeu should be re-named "The sire of Derby Winner's" his record for the 1m4f horses is exceptional. I do rather love the luck of Montjeu's. Their all quality[:D]
By:
boba
When: 09 Sep 10 16:15
Wootton Bassett won another sales race. Is it likely they will supplement him for the 2000G he already has an irish 2000G entry.
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 09 Sep 10 16:25
boba, I hope you are not fishing. There aren't any 2000G entries yet.
By:
boba
When: 09 Sep 10 16:53
ah yes true sadly not fishing probably a sign of age lol
By:
jmc27
When: 04 Oct 10 16:49
Looks like Galileo will have the winter favs for the 1000g and 2000g
By:
boba
When: 09 Oct 10 22:51
good win for katla today. Her Diamond Green half brother went cheap at 23k.
By:
jmc27
When: 31 Oct 10 14:54
ROC looks a decent prospect aswell beat a few decent sorts today
By:
boba
When: 31 Oct 10 17:45
i have a feeling seville maybe the best of them. Should be exciting for galileo next year.
By:
jmc27
When: 30 Apr 11 15:21
TTT
By:
MidasTouch.....
When: 02 May 11 19:25
Was Only A Matter Of Time Until Galileo Sired A Guineas Winner,Great Stuff
By:
jmc27
When: 22 May 11 16:25
Well this thread needs to be binned!
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 22 May 11 20:01
jmc, I think it's very mean of you to refresh it and show everyone up Laugh
By:
Distant View
When: 22 May 11 22:07
Nothing wrong with the threaD.

It just shows that Galileo is exceeding the lofty expectations of him and is turning into a legendary sire.
By:
jmc27
When: 22 May 11 22:24
Have to say Jim Bolgers Scribonia is a fair producer Claiomh Solais was just a neck away today from Scribonia offspring been 3/3 placed in a Guineas
By:
geoff m
When: 23 May 11 19:51
only 4 guineas winners this yr 4 him
By:
salmon spray
When: 25 May 11 00:26
Very interesting Galileo. Really wasn`t as good a racehorse as Montjeu and looked tapped for toe by Fantastic Light when they desperately tried to win a 10f Grp1 with him at 3. Not quite as stamina packed on the dam`s side as Montjeu though. Does look as though he is THE sire now. Better him than something from the unsound Danzig`s line.
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