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02 Jul 10 22:51
Date Joined: 23 Aug 08
| Topic/replies: 426 | Blogger: DMCK's blog
with such a good book, coolmore backing and a great early start can he be caught? and if so who do you think, (by winners and prize money, whichever you base the most important commerical aspect)
Pause Switch to Standard View Holy Roman Emperor, has he got the...
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Report The Gotchee July 2, 2010 11:53 PM BST
This stallion had 78 northern hemisphere foals, 32 were named, 31 ran of which 9 have won 11  races. Another over hyped Coolmore stallion. At 17.5k he wouldn't lace the boots of Big Bad Bob. Happy
Report Prima Donna July 2, 2010 11:56 PM BST
The Gotchee,do you have a share in BBB?
Report somedougal July 3, 2010 12:13 AM BST
high5's all around for BOB!!!
Report DMCK July 3, 2010 12:26 AM BST
BBB is a good prospect and has a good future but in terms of this years 1st season sire, i say with respect that he cant win it
Report RipVanWinkle July 3, 2010 2:34 AM BST
Iffraaj for me
Report Eont July 3, 2010 11:42 AM BST
Big Bad Bob had runners last year so is not even a first crop sire
Report The Gotchee July 3, 2010 8:23 PM BST
PD, I dont have shares in BBBCry, wish I hadLove. I just like the underdogGrin. I dont like Coolmore, I believe they have singlehandedly ruined the breeding industry. Cry.
Report Prima Donna July 3, 2010 8:32 PM BST
Well The Gotchee,imo Darley with the pay when you sell trollocks have done more damage than ever Coolmore have,are you useing BBB?
Report jan_vermeer July 3, 2010 10:21 PM BST
thegotchee,try talk some sense next time u post,cheers
Report The Gotchee July 4, 2010 1:02 PM BST
PD,I havn't used BBB yet but I will use him next season. I feel Darley had to come up with an imaginative marketing ploy to try and break the dominance of  Coolmore. Personally I don't like these gimmicks but I can see where Darley are coming from.

jan vermeer, I am entitled to my opinion and I think you will find many people would agree with my view. If you want a debate on the issue I will be happy give you my viewpoint.Cool
Report Prima Donna July 4, 2010 1:17 PM BST
The Gotchee,

I feel Darley had to come up with an imaginative marketing ploy to try and break the dominance of  Coolmore.

But in doing the pay when you sell don't you think it backfired on them? As all its done is flood the market with utter trash in the process diluting any real chance of say a stallion like Byron both on the course and in the sale ring.
I would be interested to hear you view on why you think Coolmore have single-handedly ruined the breeding industry,I agree with you Gotchee your view is valid and you are fully entitled to it regardless if others do or don't agree.
Report RipVanWinkle July 4, 2010 1:50 PM BST
I dont think Coolmore have ruined Irish Bloodstock without them there would be no Irish Bloodstock. Could you imagine how bad our horses would be today if Coolmore had not introduced Sadlers Wells, he made Irish Bloodstock what it is and to be honest Coolmore should be thanked.

They have had there fair share of underachievers but they always try to offer the breeder a good stallion at stud
Report Prima Donna July 4, 2010 1:59 PM BST
Rip Van,I completely agree with your view of Coolmore my sentiments exactly,I would like to hear The Gotchee's point though.
Report jan_vermeer July 4, 2010 7:09 PM BST
the gotchee were all waiting in anticipation on your view as to why coolmore "have single-handedly ruined the breeding industry"im intrigued as to what nonsence u will put forward
Report DMCK July 4, 2010 7:49 PM BST
neither Coolmore or Darley has ruined the bloodstock industry, they've just changed how is and are dominating but small breeders still get in right some times and neither superpowers totally dominate, but my question was is the 1st season sire championship over with HRE quick start or can Iffraaj or kodiac catch him, im particurly inttrested in his coolmore studmate hurricane run take any part in the championship? the season haS only reached the half way mark
Report RipVanWinkle July 4, 2010 8:21 PM BST
Kodiac i dont think will be involved although his pedigree suggests he could do very well. I like Iffraaj myself and have used him a bit. There nice sorts and easy to deal with and we've never had any problems with them. Holy Roman Emperor is the likely winner but to be honest i've been disappointed with his progeny and we have a mare in foal to him this year hopefully he'll do well.
Hurricane Run is a big scopey horse i think he's very long of his back which takes time to develop so his progeny should come good with age like him. He is a horse that i always love to see when at Coolmore and they think alot of him maybe thats why his box is up near his sire.
Report DMCK July 4, 2010 8:49 PM BST
im not sure iffraj can win unless the goldophin 2year olds start preforming like they did at the tail end of last year, despite hurricane runs only 2year old start being in october i think coolmore would have had a few out by royal ascot but maybe glorious goodwood, havent heard aBOUT ANY OF HIS 2YEAR olds to date
Report The Gotchee July 5, 2010 10:45 PM BST
OVERPRODUCTION was initiated by Coolmore. They sacraficed quality for quantity which has resulted extreme inbreeding to Northern Dancer/Sadlers Wells/Danzig etc.
The models in question are inbred for optimum performance. The raw material for this heavily marketed equine ‘product’ is a small number of fashionable stallions and mares who themselves derive from ultra-fashionable breeding lines. By fixating on this narrow marketing objective,
breeders will have a major detrimental impact on generations of horses to come.
There is already evidence that a fragile and
weaker Thoroughbred is emerging, and this is despite breeders’ insistence that
‘improvement’ of the performance horse is their paramount objective.
I believe the German model of bloodstock regulation should be adopted by all bloodstock breeding nations in an attempt to bring some sanity back into the industry.
Report dubai July 15, 2010 8:26 AM BST
first season sire c'ship starting to get going now with the 7f to mile 2yo races starting to come on stream.A treble for Iffraaj yesterday but what will come out of the pack as the season progresse.Dubawi had very few winners this time last year and still came 2nd inthe numbers table(I think).Open to correction.
Report Prima Donna July 15, 2010 12:41 PM BST
I'm slightly surprised Ifraaj has done so well as he does not look the immediate type to get early horses,and being a son of Zafonic with no preciosity in his page,but saying that they did sell well last year and have gone to some good hotels so is he a turn-up?
Holy Roman Emperor imo needs a few class 2 y'olds nothing really looks like top flight to date but I know plenty of time still left in the season for a few classy ones to come out.One first season sire who should of done better is Byron,being early and from a speedy family this son of Green Desert is not doing it,wonder why.............could it be Darley covering lots of rubbish or is he another flop son of Green Desert,or perhaps a bit of both?
Report potentialmillionaire July 15, 2010 10:53 PM BST
May I add Woodman to the Byron conundrum?
I know he has had his mome
Report potentialmillionaire July 15, 2010 10:57 PM BST
. . .moments as a sire but I regard him as a bit poisonous in a pedigree personally.
H.R.E could do with some high classers I agree, but there is still time and I find it interesting that he has a really solid standard of horse overall. Next to none of them so far is useless.
Report dubai July 16, 2010 8:00 AM BST
H.R.E will do the buisness I feel as he got a serious book of mares.They will start to roll out soon.
Report Prima Donna July 16, 2010 9:01 AM BST
I doo hope you are right dubai,we have a few of his,he needs class from now on.
Report Prima Donna July 16, 2010 9:01 AM BST
Report potentialmillionaire July 16, 2010 10:57 AM BST
I like you too Dubai (vested HRE interest here aswell!)
Report Tiswallaceno7 July 16, 2010 6:09 PM BST
I loved this horse but i am massive feeling this guy is going right to the Top of the sire's list in 10 years.

He has some very solid 2yr old's so far....very impressed so far.
Report Black Sam Bellamy July 16, 2010 6:39 PM BST
The Gotchee, you make a good point here I feel. The booksizes that Coolmore have permitted, will in the longer terms dilute the quality of the breed. I mean who would like a mare by any of this lot; Fasliyev, Hawk Wing, King Charlemagne, Spartacus, Spectrum & Mull of Kintyre ?
Report sump July 18, 2010 10:49 AM BST
1.5 on Holy Roman Emperor at the moment
Report DMCK August 2, 2010 8:31 PM BST
BSB i dont think hawk wing was all that bad and hawk wing mares are still unproven, id take a gamble on one with decent confirmation
Report potentialmillionaire August 2, 2010 8:43 PM BST
I would like a Fasliyev mare if all the credentials were right. I think you need form on a mare by a cold sire, but if that's there, I'll forgive the sire a lot of the time.
H.W. 4/10 K.C. 2/10 Spartacus and Mull 2 also. Spectrum at least has pedigree so 4/10 there too.
It would be nice to not be backed into a buying corner for any of them really!
Report Prima Donna August 2, 2010 8:48 PM BST
You may have a point DMCK..........but if I got one I would want a strong pedigree and look at her family,despite her being by Hawk Wing,she would also need to be a good sort as a lot of his are far too big and backward.I will be amazed if he is any good as a broodmare sire but we shall have to see over the next few years.
Report DMCK August 2, 2010 8:49 PM BST
hawk wing by woodman means taking a step way from the danehill storm cat and saddlers that is begining to make every horse inbred, note what jim Boldger is doing by bringing in alot of american blood which will stand to him hugly in the coming years, i agree about Fasliyev, source of speed could be nicly mixed with Galileo or high Chap maybe
Report Posh Paddy August 2, 2010 10:41 PM BST
I don't think Jim Bolgers use of american sires is to avoid in breeding, probaby a descent exchange rate and novel in the sales rings.  After all he did "try" and put Lush Lashes in foal to - Sea The Stars (her uncle).
Report DMCK August 2, 2010 10:52 PM BST
a few of STS nominations were trying the 3x3 inbreding Bolger pointed to some stud in france that regulaly did it, cant remember the name for the life of me, i wasnt aware that a lot of his americans were bought rather than mares sent over which would have cost a fair few €/$.
Given the mention of the Stars, i look forward to seeing a few Stars foals out of a Dalakhani mare
Report Prima Donna August 3, 2010 4:48 PM BST
i look forward to seeing a few Stars foals out of a Dalakhani mare

You may have a long wait then as imo you could get a horse that makes up into a really nice 5y'old,lots and lots of stamina in the mix with those two.
Report potentialmillionaire August 3, 2010 9:45 PM BST
P D,
  I agree if See The Stars turns out to be a disappointment that's where we'll be.

  If however he goes the route of his big brother, and he has more speed, then that's the cross that'll be delivering our Derby/Arc horses maybe.
Report DMCK August 4, 2010 12:22 AM BST
i really think that The Stars will be like his brother, ie successful but will give that bit more speed being by cape cross and all, give his book STS will have to be odds on for 1st season sire,.... am currently very dissappoined with this years 2year old in general never mind what the 1stseanson sires have thrown up, has anyone used any of the 1st season sires? views on etc
Report Prima Donna August 9, 2010 6:51 PM BST
DMCK     02 Jul 10 22:51 
with such a good book, coolmore backing and a great early start can he be caught?

Yes!Really for a stallion that got the level of mares he had in his first season,you have to admit he looks disappointing,lots of small winners but now the season is getting going with the best sorts coming out for the 2y'old GR1 where are they?His seem to be running as pace horses for the better ones ie Zoffany,and that's from his No1 yard who will give him the most help.
Report DMCK August 9, 2010 11:23 PM BST
now Prima that was said over a month ago, and the betting on the 1st season championship heavilt indicated that HRE was going to win (matched to something like 1.2 abeit a very depressed market), at the time i took a gamble on hurricane run at 26 and 28's as he had nothing run yet and similar support to HRE and was a late 2year old himself but upon reflection he'll have many runners in france being a french trained horse and all, Zoffany was excellant in the curragh very impressed by the turn of foot to come betweeen the 2 challenegrs byt glor na mara really impresses, given how his debut was in a G3 and he looked very green and to really pushed in the last furlong was impressive.

SO going back to the orginal statement, who's been the best 1st seanon sire?
Report RipVanWinkle August 10, 2010 1:01 AM BST
Iffraaj has been the best for me. We have a mare in foal to HRE and its looking like it could have been very risky. he was available at a very good price though. We also used Iffraaj aswell this year
Report August 10, 2010 9:56 AM BST
I generally only do season sire statistics twice a year, as nothing more frequent produces good enough sample sizes. First season sires are always the trickiest, in both predicting in advance, what they should produce and assessing the progeny on the ground, especially with very small sample sizes.

One of the boring statistical methods I use is amount a stallion upgrades/downgrades his mares. By their very nature, mares that are having their first foal run cannot be assessed. The leading first season sire figures as of 26 June 2010 are below (I hope it pastes in a legible manner).

Sire                Runs    Avg. Rating    Mare Upgrade (%)
Ifraaj                  56    63            -0.91
Holy Roman Emperor    65    68            11.2
Librettist          23    64             1.58
Kodiac                  40    61            10.6
Aussie Rules          33    63            11.94
Diamond Green          46    58            -4.39
Sleeping Indian          44    58             4.84
Proclamation          36    53            -9.00
Indesatchel          33    54             8.22
Ivan Denisovich          30    61             9.34
Ad Valorem          35    53           -11.5
Iceman                  62    50           -18.56
Report DMCK August 11, 2010 10:31 PM BST
cant really agree with HRE upgrading hismares a whopping 11% but am delighted to see aussie rules has good stats, i like him and think he is overlooked given his family
Report August 12, 2010 8:54 AM BST
DMCK     11 Aug 10 22:31 
cant really agree with HRE upgrading hismares a whopping 11% but am delighted to see aussie rules has good stats, i like him and think he is overlooked given his family

I think I should clarify how the mare ratings are calculated. They are purely an assessment of the mare’s abilities as a broodmare, their race record has no bearing, and they are not being assessed as racehorses.
All mares are assessed for a rating against their peers and cover quality. For instance, a mare, some who were contributors on the Hearts of Fire/Firebreak thread might recognise, called Dayville (2nd dam to HOF) is a good example. She has produced nothing exceptional, highest rated 100, but in general her progeny substantially outperform the median for the progeny of their respective sires, and with little statistical deviation. She has a mare rating of 1.24 with 1.00 being the norm.
Urban Sea the dam of Sea the Stars, Galileo etc. has an average rating of 1.36; the consistent mare Ffestioniog outperforms her on 1.39. Not because Ffestiniog’s progeny are better, but how they compare to her coverings which have been, until recently, of a lower quality than those of Urban Sea.  Her progeny have outperformed the median  of her coverings by a marginally greater percentage than those of Urban Sea.
As I mentioned first season sires are the hardest to quantify, not least because of the small sample sizes making sound assessments difficult. In addition, we can only assess them in terms of mare upgrading against their two year old records. We rate mares for two, three, and four year old plus categories.
Report dubai August 19, 2010 2:09 PM BST
Is it all over now regarding prizemoney and winners?
Report potentialmillionaire August 19, 2010 10:39 PM BST
Well at least if Ifraaj does land it, he has had a ton of winners so it won't be quite as distorted and irritating as the usual skewing effect of the sales races.
Report RipVanWinkle August 30, 2010 3:11 PM BST
Another winner for Iffraaj at Newcastle
Report DMCK September 27, 2010 8:20 PM BST
i think we'll see how good hurricane run is as a 2year old sire over the next month
Report Prima Donna September 27, 2010 8:24 PM BST
I won't hold my breath!
Report DMCK September 27, 2010 9:53 PM BST
im not saying any 2year group prospects but like todays JSB's winner, he should get a fair few winners to numbers ratio and we'll have a clearer of her 3year old crop
Report DMCK September 27, 2010 9:59 PM BST
her should read the, sorryBlush
Report Prima Donna September 27, 2010 10:01 PM BST
I reckon this horse will end up going down the route that was pencilled in for his sire BEFORE he turned into a very good stallion,
Report DMCK September 27, 2010 10:17 PM BST
jumps does seem to be a beckoning but maybe he should be sent to stand in France like Soldier of Fortune
Report Prima Donna September 28, 2010 6:24 AM BST
Yeah sure that's a poss',being a son of Montjeu coming from a German stamina laden family I will be surprised if he really makes it as a flat sire he is in the best place to give him that chance,but if later he is switched then he would be a very high class edition for the jumps market,I suspect his connections are not unaware of this either [;)]
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