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jamesp
17 Jun 10 10:06
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,468 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Will the Queen Mary winner Maqaasid get further than 6 furlongs?  She clearly has loads of pace and will probably be kept to 6f for the rest of this season, with the Cheveley Park Stakes the obvious end-of-season target.  But does anyone think she could develop into a Guineas filly?  What's the record of Green Desert fillies, who showed classy form over sprint distances at two, over longer trips at three?
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Report jamesp June 17, 2010 2:31 PM BST
Well, having done a bit of research, I can now answer my own question.  Green Desert offspring who excel over sprint distances at two hardly ever excel over a mile (or further) at three.  The only exception to this general rule was Desert Prince, who was smart enough over 6f at two to finish second in the Coventry and a close fifth in the Prix Morny and later won the Irish 2000 Guineas.  The vast majority of his smart sprinters at two remain sprinters or 7f horses later in their career, eg Oasis Dream, Owington, Invincible Spirit, Tamarisk. 

Green Desert's smartest juvenile fillies over 5-6f (who did not also prove their stamina over longer trips at two) were Tropical, Tanami and Inishdalla, none of whom stayed a mile at three.

It's highly unlikely, from this cursory research into Green Desert's progeny, that Maqaasid will excel over a mile next year.  She cannot be viewed as a prospective Guineas filly.
Report push June 17, 2010 2:45 PM BST
There are not many fillies who have the speed to win the Queen Mary and then go on to the Guineas.Which was the last one to do that double ?
Report Equimine.co.uk June 17, 2010 3:15 PM BST
Attraction
Report push June 17, 2010 3:43 PM BST
Thought there was one that had done the double recently.
Report jamesp June 17, 2010 8:57 PM BST
Ravinella, Attraction, Natagora and Special Duty all won Group races over 5f or 5.5f at two before going on to win the Guineas at three.  In addition, Marling (the 1991 Queen Mary winner) was unlucky not to win the 1992 Guineas (beaten a head).  But those fillies (with the possible exception of Attraction) were all bred to be milers.  Maqaasid, a speedy daughter of Green Desert, is unlikely to stay a mile (in my opinion).
Report potentialmillionaire June 17, 2010 10:20 PM BST
I think that oncourse evidence is always the best place to start with trip requirement and I think that Maqaasid looks like a sprinter and races like one.
If you want to go down the pedigree route then I think that she probably ought to stay a mile with one of the best 'stout' families in the book - granny being a Mr Prospector best over 10f. It certainly seems possible to inject speed into the Height of Fashion tribe, but this will be a pretty fast generation jump to a pure sprinter.
We shall see.
Report Equimine.co.uk June 20, 2010 11:00 AM BST
I have looked at my breeding statistics for Green Desert which cover a majority of his stud career (1996 to 2009 runners).
In that time he has only produced two progeny that I have given a race rating as follows:

At two years old achieved a rating of 95 or over at a distance of less than, or equal, to 6 1/4 furlongs. Then achieved a race rating of 105 or over at a distance of more than, or equal to, 7 1/2 furlongs at three years old.

They were Desert Prince and Byron.
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