The Oaks.

Tell us why then?

Not until after the Oaks.

But it is my own observation, and it has worked for the last 20 years.

a slowly run race and everyhorse has a chance of staying the trip imo

So you say! Give us a clue then.

It is in relation to the dams side of the pedigree. Not the sire.

Is it the B.mare sire?Stormbird

Indeed, but i will leave you to do the research, and come to your own conclusions.

Ceilidh House, for me at the moment.

I will have a look back over the last 20 years,and see what stands out.

Any thoughts on Sagacious?

Nice pedigree, but if my observation holds true, then she is not going to win. But dont let me put you off backing her.

I see Hibaayeb has been supported today for the Oaks and she would qualify as a possible winner using my observations, but looking at the pedigrees of past Oaks winners i cannot find one that has the broodmare sire from the Mr Prospector line.

Same with the Derby isn't?

Do you not think Sagacious will stay?

On pedigree you would say she is sure to stay, but she is bred on similar lines to Chinese White, and much to my surprise she did not stay in the Oaks.

Fair enough, Shreyas didn't stay either.

I see where you are coming from with that one ( full sister )

Stormbird...

On the basis that Ceilidh House has a full brother whose best rating was achieved over 12f on easy ground,its not exactly rocket science!

BTW, I tipped CH in mid jan on another thread...so am in full agreement.

three ante post:
Sagacious (IRE)
Ceilidh House
Principal Role (USA)

and then wait for the day as nothing changes complexion like the Oaks market from Apr to Jun

I want to know do ye back the horses that ye make cases for here

RVW, who are you asking that question to ?
push has backed all Henrys main fancies , Youll be mine , and CHouse.

I was asking all of ye it's just it's very open this year as it is every year and i'd take a winner of a race at Dundalk the same as picking a winner of the Oaks a winner is a winner why not concentrate on races that are easier to pick as you'll prob have better success as some of ye are good at analysing races

Apart from when Look Here won the fancied runners have a very good record in the Oaks, the key is to spot them early as to get a good price.

YES but how many horses do you fancy and is the return on one of them winning going to cover your bet on 4 or 5 of them

Storm Bird. An Irish Derby winner who also won the Oaks, Balanchine. Always keep your theories flexible is my best bet!

Not sure what your point is, but Balanchine fitted my observation as her broodmare sire was Affirmed.

Althought flexability is good when trying to spot the winner.

Youll be Mine , got at 50-1, Timepiece 25-1, and CHouse 33-1, at those prices i can afford to back a few more nearer the time ( RVW )

Why not just have one decent bet on one of them instead of backing so many it just doesnt make sense to me and i know your response wont be to nice now either

You have to follow your own path when it comes to betting, otherwise you will just regret your decisions later on, plus with anti post betting some will fall by the wayside.

In the last 18 years 3 trainers have account for 11 of the 18 winners, Cecil, O Brien and S.Bin Suroor. Cecil has 5 wins and 2 seconds and O Brien 3 wins and 4 seconds, def trainers worth following in this race.

That is an astonishing stat when you consider the following...

Suroor has had 2 runners in the last 5 years...They beat 1 horse between them.

They had no runner in 06,08 or 09.

S.Bin Suroor, in last 18 years 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third.

Just shows what an outfit they have become.

Yes, they used to be red hot and their horses very reliable, i do not know what has changed, but you would think they will turn it around ( eventually ). One of their winners was Moonshell who they took out of Henrys stable. Balanchine they bought off Robert Sangster after a very promising 2yo season.

I will be watching Godolphin with interest this year-2 trainers with 2 separate sets of horses.....not suggesting they have a serious Oaks contender between them, but I cant help but think the pressure will be on Suroor to deliver this year.

Wedding March ?

Yes possible on pedigree, Hibaayeb obviously merits consideration. I note they have also have this filly called Hudoo entered - be interesting to see if she starts in one of the Oaks trials.

Nice pedigree Hudoo from the family of Ramruma

Obviously think something of her if they've given her an entry at this stage of her career. Notice she is half-sister to All The Good winner of the Caulfield Cup.

They didnt train Kazzia at 2 either.

Although Rumoush is no cast iron certainty to stay she would fit the profile of an Oaks winner from my observations.

I like her, having the stamina looks very unlikely though imo

Agree.

Ye're a joke

I agree.

Pink Symphony, although only a maiden race she won at Newbury, on pedigree observations she is a qualifier for the Oaks according to my system.

Is there anything in the Guineas that looks like they may stay the Oaks trip ?

kkk

Ships Biscuit has a nice pedigree.

I am very much looking forward to seeing the reappearance of Ship's Biscuit at Sandown on Friday. The winner aside, IMO, she was the one to take from the 1m maiden won by Aviate at Kempton last November, proving difficult to load and then running green before really getting the message inside the final furlong or so to finish fifth, all the time under a typically educational ride.

Obviously she is bred to excel over middle/staying distances this year, given her notable siblings are Hi Calypso and Warringah, though both of those progressed well through the handicap ranks, so whether Ship's Biscuit can prove herself good enough to tackle pattern company this early in her career remains to be seen (much depends on how she has been trained). Whether she is a Classic prospect or not, remains a nice prospect for the season. I can see her going for a race like the Cheshire Oaks if running well on Friday.

Celiidh House cut to 16-1 by all firms today.

Pollenator looks like the first one off the list, may be going for the French Oaks.

Looks like Principal Role and Seta wont be taking part either.

Can we cross Timepiece off the list also ?

Looks like the only leading anti post contender making it to the Oaks will be Timepiece.

snow fairy for me[smiley:crazy][smiley:crazy]

As far as i can tell , non of the Oaks winners are out of mares from the Northern Dancer sire line , correct ?