2000 Guineas winners Sires, and implications for St Nicholas Abbey .

As a read through that I'd say it makes more of a case for taking him on with his breeding than backing him, like you say New Approach had the speed to win over 7f but with SNA they have never considered trying him over that trip, why not? All his runs have been over a mile, as a two year old and I feel with his breeding he will need a step up in trip at 3. His wins over a mile were slowly run and that benefits his sprint finish but will he be able to do that off a fast pace, will he be able to go the clip in the first place?? He also has big doubts about training on from 2 to 3 and he just doesn't look remotely like a Guineas horse to me.

Yes , it is a difficult one, i convinced myself early on that he would need further at 3, but now i am not so sure, i think the ground will be a deciding factor for me, i think he will train on OK.

Maybe he will, really interesting to see how he gets on because not been this strongly against a classic favourite ever I don't think. Don't let yourself get taken in by the hype from people on here :)

Ben , i am not trying to convince you ( he may not even run ) but just because they never raced him at less than 1 mile does not mean he could not have won at a shorter distance as a 2yo. Anyway it makes the build up to the Guineas all the more exciting. I hope they dont run him, because he is not a winner for me, at least not yet !

I know you want Steinbeck to win Ben 10, fancy any others ?

Yeah but if you've got a son of Montjeu who is class you want to be able to show he's got speed so you try him over less than a mile if you think him capable of that do you not think, just as all the recent Guineas winners by stoutly bred sires were, the general way a two year old is progressed is by stepping up in trip, you hardly ever see a horse start at a mile as a juvenile and a mile still being his best trip at 3.

True, but how many people back the speed horses, and year after year they fail to stay, at least we know SNA stays and has a turn of foot.
See i am trying to convince myself now :p

I've backed Steinbeck, Cape Blanco, Stunning View and also had a little on Workforce now, just tried to pick out any opportunities I've seen arise but inevitably you end up with a few nons. To be honest SNA has never been a backable price for me especially with my scepticism.

I don't think it's about backing speed horses (Arcano, Awzaan and Canford perhaps?) but about backing the actual milers, i.e. the mix of speed and stamina even if they don't win on the day they're the ones to follow through the season imo.

Yes the ones that will progress, i think Fencing Master will make a nice 3yo.

Could be right, would you compare his run to what you say about Workforce (perhaps more so given his sire's style of running) and he's actually capable of being a mile to 10f horse?

Fencing Master will be aimed at the top 1 mile and 1m2f races just like his sire Oratorio, the thing about FMaster compared to Workforce , is the form , 2nd in a Grp 1 race on only his 2nd racecourse appearance is good going , and surely there must be plenty of improvement to come, it just depends if O Brien wants to have him ready / or aim him at the English Guineas, its a long season , and O Briens seem to improve for their first couple of races.
Plus O Briens has plenty of high class 3yos to choose from , Stoute may only have 2 or 3 in the mile division.

Not sure how the formatting will come out but been having a play round with the 2000gns winners

Sire AWD 9.6-9.8 on average, so Montjeu well over that but is by a sire who has produced three of the last 15 winners. Plenty of stamina in most pedigrees, and sure blade a pretty sharp 2yo from what i remember (even if AWD is 10f)

Personally I'd be more worried about too little rather than too much stamina in the pedigree and having put away some proven group performers in the futurity (who have franked the form) and from a stable who have any number of good yarsticks, surely its the argument is over "value" of his price rather than chances to win

I'd also be more worried about a montjeu in the fillies

Year Winner Winner AWD Sire AWD AWD Dam Sire DamSire AWD Comb AWD Jockey Trainer Owner Time
1985 Shadeed (7.7f) Nijinsky (CAN) (11.0f) 11.0 (Damascus (USA) - - Lester Piggott Michael Stoute Maktoum Al Maktoum 01:37.4
1986 Dancing Brave (10.5f) Lyphard (USA) (10.4f) 10.4 (Drone (GB) - - Greville Starkey Guy Harwood Khalid Abdullah 01:40.0
1987 Don't Forget Me (9.2f) Ahonoora (GB) (8.0f) 8.0 African Sky (GB) - - Willie Carson Richard Hannon James Horgan 01:36.7
1988 Doyoun (10.3f) Mill Reef (USA) Kashmir II (GB) - - Walter Swinburn Michael Stoute HH Aga Khan IV 01:41.7
1989 Nashwan (9.9f) Blushing Groom (FR) (10.4f) 10.4 Bustino (GB) (11.0f) 11.0 10.7 Willie Carson Dick Hern Hamdan Al Maktoum 01:36.4
1990 Tirol (8.6f) Thatching (GB) (7.7f) 7.7 Great Nephew (GB) - - Michael Kinane Richard Hannon John Horgan 01:35.8
1991 Mystiko (8.4f) Secreto (USA) (9.9f) 9.9 Zeddaan (GB) - - Michael Roberts Clive Brittain Lady Beaverbrook 01:37.8
1992 Rodrigo de Triano - El Gran Senor (USA) (8.9f) 8.9 Hot Spark I (GB) - - Lester Piggott Peter Chapple-Hyam Robert Sangster 01:38.4
1993 Zafonic (8.6f) Gone West (USA) (8.1f) 8.1 The Minstrel (CAN) (9.8f) 9.8 9.0 Pat Eddery André Fabre Khalid Abdullah 01:35.3
1994 Mister Baileys (9.9f) Robellino (USA) (10.2f) 10.2 Sharpen Up (GB) (8.9f) 8.9 9.6 Jason Weaver Mark Johnston G. R. Bailey Ltd 01:35.1
1995 Pennekamp (8.1f) Bering (GB) (10.0f) 10.0 Green Dancer (USA) (11.1f) 11.1 10.6 Thierry Jarnet André Fabre Sheikh Mohammed 01:35.2
1996 Mark of Esteem (8.5f) Darshaan (GB) (11.6f) 11.6 Ajdal (USA) (8.3f) 8.3 10.0 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 01:37.6
1997 Entrepreneur (9.5f) Sadler's Wells (USA) (11.2f) 11.2 Exclusive Native (USA) - - Michael Kinane Michael Stoute Tabor / Magnier 01:35.6
1998 King of Kings (9.6f) Sadler's Wells (USA) (11.2f) 11.2 Habitat (GB) (7.5f) 7.5 9.4 Michael Kinane Aidan O'Brien Magnier / Tabor 01:39.3
1999 Island Sands - Turtle Island (IRE) (10.0f) 10.0 J O Tobin (USA) (5.3f) 5.3 7.7 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 01:37.1
2000 King's Best (8.6f) Kingmambo (USA) (9.8f) 9.8 Lombard (GER) - - Kieren Fallon Sir Michael Stoute Saeed Suhail 01:37.8
2001 Golan (9.9f) Spectrum (IRE) (9.6f) 9.6 Generous (IRE) (11.8f) 11.8 10.7 Kieren Fallon Sir Michael Stoute Lord Weinstock 01:37.5
2002 Rock of Gibraltar (8.8f) Danehill (USA) (9.0f) 9.0 Be My Guest (USA) (10.1f) 10.1 9.6 Johnny Murtagh Aidan O'Brien Ferguson / Magnier 01:36.5
2003 Refuse to Bend (9.1f) Sadler's Wells (USA) (11.2f) 11.2 Gulch (USA) (9.1f) 9.1 10.2 Pat Smullen Dermot Weld Moyglare Stud Farm 01:38.0
2004 Haafhd (9.1f) Alhaarth (IRE) (10.2f) 10.2 Blushing Groom (FR) (10.4f) 10.4 10.3 Richard Hills Barry Hills Hamdan Al Maktoum 01:36.6
2005 Footstepsinthesand - Giant's Causeway (USA) (9.4f) 9.4 Rainbow Quest (USA) (11.0f) 11.0 10.2 Kieren Fallon Aidan O'Brien Tabor / Magnier 01:36.1
2006 George Washington - Danehill (USA) (9.0f) 9.0 Alysheba (USA) (11.3f) 11.3 10.2 Kieren Fallon Aidan O'Brien Magnier / Tabor / Smith 01:36.9
2007**ney Rebel - Val Royal (FR) (9.1f) 9.1 Known Fact (USA) (8.3f) 8.3 8.7 Olivier Peslier Geoff Huffer Phil Cunningham 01:35.3
2008 Henrythenavigator - Kingmambo (USA) (9.8f) 9.8 Sadler's Wells (USA) (11.2f) 11.2 10.5 Johnny Murtagh Aidan O'Brien Sue Magnier 01:39.1
2009 Sea the Stars - Cape Cross (IRE) (8.6f) 8.6 Miswaki (USA) (8.3f) 8.3 8.5 Michael Kinane John Oxx Christopher Tsui 01:35.9
Average AWD 9.8 Average AWD 9.6 9.7
Median AWD 9.9 Median AWD 10.0 10.1
Average AWD (Last 10yrs) 9.6 Average AWD (Last 10yrs) 10.2 9.9
Median AWD (Last 10yrs) 9.6 Median AWD (Last 10yrs) 10.3 10.2

2010 St Nicholas Abbey Montjeu (IRE) (11.6f) 11.6 Sure Blade (USA) (10.1f 10.1 10.9
2010 Canford Cliffs Tagula (IRE) (7.1f) 7.1 Marju (IRE) (9.2f) 9.2 8.2
2010 Steinbeck Footstepsinthesand (6.5f) 6.5 Danehill (USA) (9.0f) 9 7.8
2010 Workforce King´s Best (USA) (8.7f) 8.7 Sadler's Wells (USA) (11.2f) 11.2 10.0


(footsteps ave from 1 2yo season)

surely its the argument is over "value" of his price rather than chances to win

Is that not the same thing?

value for betting & chances of winning for racing/sport discussion ?

Plenty of winners there by sires with quite high stamina index values, more winners than ones with low stamina index values, but quite alot of them are out of quite fast mares, in the case of Refuse To Bend, Rodrigo , Mark of Esteem , K of K, etc.
To early to tell what FSITS , stamina index will be. Still plenty to analyse and think about.

Ah I see. Nice work with the stats btw, interesting reading, if you use them right ;)

Had time to come to a conclusion using the above figures provided by perry, Ben ?

Ben, I cant have St Nicholas Abbey at the prices. He may win the race, but I think that a lot of factors could conspire against him.

One of which has been highlighted in this thread. My view of Montjeu is that he gets tremendously able 10f-12f progeny, and those who do well even further, but that is about it. The stats I use (Raceform) make paltry reading - 7% strike rate (9 winners from 128 runners) since the start of the 2004 flat season over 1m.

Now, it is entirely possible that SNA could win at Newmarket on 1st May...but in order for it to be a punting proposition I would have to be able to get something better than whats currently on offer. Id probably consider him if I was able to get between 6/1-8/1...im afraid that is currently unlikely.

You'll probably get it in running ;)

Push, seems Montjeu's AWD is a big negative for SNA and my theory that if they have a staying sire they need to show they can win over less than a mile at 2 could reason the anomalies.

Thats not a bad idea Ben ( backing him in running ).

Have to be pretty fearless to hold off and wait until you can get your price, probably not for me but if you stuck up 6.0 you may get it if he doesn't get a clear run or struggles to go the early. Not really my way of betting although I'll probably trade out a few Cheltenham bets at short prices to cover myself.

SNA beat 10 other last time out winners in a GP1 which he won with ease over the distance of the classic. The race before he beat a subsequent group1 winner. By any definition he looks an exceptional 2yo

He comes from a champion sire, out of a mare who was a half sister to a st james palace winner, and is trained by the trainer within the greatest pool of talent, and is controlled by an organisation who will be desperate to get a group1 winning son of montjeu over a mile (just as their other sadlers wells son galileo has in Rip/NA)

Is the only thing not to like the fact the price has gone? Sadlers wells took more than 10 years to get his derby winner and with a similar AWD sired three 2000GNS winners... Montjeu had only 6/7 crops and has sired outstanding runners in most of them (esp colts)


Fast ground or training setbacks look bigger dangers than any known form outside maiden company


Almost a bet to nothing EW (1/4 1,2,3) at 7/2 with Stan James

For me there are doubts about him going on from his excellent form, although being by Montjeu there may not be the scope that some people expect and last year we could have just seen a very forward colt.

agree, and zafonic was very much in that category (and held it together just long enough for a brilliant winning display) but then again the not training on applies to every horse irrespective of level of form shown at 2

he only needs to hold things together for six months from end of oct to start of may

and lets not forget, had motivator been aimed at the gns rather than dante, we may have been discussing montjeu's second 2000gns winner

The thing about Sadlers Wells is that he did have the speed to win the Irish 2000G, and the rest of his family ( brothers / half brothers ) were milers and sprinters. As for the Derby he had plenty of 2nds i know i backed them , Dushyantor, Tamure, another was 2nd to Kris Kin, Beat Hollow 3rd ( beaten by 2 future Arc winners ) Kings Theatre.
The 2 yo that SNA beat that went on to win a Grp 1 did so over 1m2f.
It is a pity they did not race SNA over 7f , we would know alot more about his chances then. Although he may not have been thought of as a Guineas contender by connections early on, he has probably improved with racing alot more than they had expected.
If you look at the Sadlers Wells Guineas winners one was out of a Habitat mare , Barathea his Irish Guineas winner and Fatherland 2nd , were both out of Habitat mares, Refuse to Bend a Gulch mare, so alot of speed influences.

perry , Zafonic was a monster , a massive 2yo, that went on to be a massive 3yo, i think the reason his form tailed off after the Guineas was the ground, it was a very wet year and everytime he was due to run the ground came up soft.
Zafonic the best miler ( that Guineas day ) i have ever seen , and the last 2000 Guineas winner by an American raced sire.

agree on all counts (inc zafonic, although would put him level with Pennekamp for gns performance), just think there is a difference between low possibility and impossibility

Its not as if he led from start to first to win the RP, he came from last to first

fast ground, dodgy draw if there are 20 runners, AOB sending him to france for a prep race and AOB early season form - and unexposed maiden winner like your Workforce, all worry me more than weather he'll have the acceleration to win it

Either way, it looks to be a good colts classic at this stage

if he does win, am sure there will be the equivalent debate over whether he'll stay at Epsom!

(btw, while zafonic the last USA raced sire to win it, the another from the gone west line sired mr greeley back in 2007) and thinking further back Kazzia Zinaad (12.2f)

Just had another quick glance through your figures perry, and possibly wrong but Golan comes out with the highest figure of 21.4 and SNA is 21.7, not that much apart , but still higher than any other on the list . ( i could be wrong ).
As you say perry , interesting times ahead .

One thing about SNA , with all this bad weather around, he looks to be quite a light framed horse and may be easier to get him ready for the Guineas than his bigger stablemates Steinbeck and Fencing Master. If he does win the Guineas he will be odds on for the Derby.

1000 Guineas Mr Greely filly =Finsceal Beo.
Kazzia went on the win the Oaks, she also won over 7f as a 2 year old, i also believe that she won a very poor 1000 Guineas.

some excellent stats on display here , congrats to all concerned . The inference I would draw from it all is that a horse by Montjeu would want to be exceptional to win the Guineas but SNA ,based on his 2yo career could just be that . If he does win , watch out as in recent years the English 2000gns has come too soon for the APOB stable and his horses always improve off their seasonal debuts in Newmarket subsequently

It is a pity they did not race SNA over 7f , we would know alot more about his chances then.

Why is that? Correct me if I am mistaken but the Gns is over a mile. SNA has already won at that distance at the top level, how would winning over a furlong shorter than the Gns trip improve his chances or 'inform' you as to them?

As for being a Montjeu and the concerns over the shorter trip. I would say that physically SNA is not a typical Montjeu and is more of a Galileo/Sadlers Wells type. Perhaps this may indicate that his distance preferences could also be atypical?

Your stats appear to show that Gns winners by more stamina influence sires are from faster mares. SNA fits this bill do you not agree?

I have said on another thread about this subject, whether SNA can beat the top milers come July/Aug time is another matter entirely to his chances of beating them in May. The Gns is very early this year, and SNA has already proven he gets the mile well at Gr 1 level. Can you be confident that the likes of Steinbeck et al have made the requisite amount of progress over the winter? Arguably SNA needs do no more than hold his form from Oct to win, the others have question marks over them. Someone has made a good point about this regarding Zafonic and I think that a similar situation occurs here.

I made the above point, i think if SNA had won a Grp race over7f , we would have an easier time assessing his ability to win over 1 mile at 3 why ? Because races over 1mile for 2yos are usually a test of stamina for young horses especially when the ground is softer than good. That is why if i am backing a 2yo running over 1 mile i like it to have stamina in its pedigree, you only have to look at the past record of RPTrophy winners
Authorized, Kings Theatre, Motivator, Brian Boru .
Sinndar won the National Stakes over 1 mile as a 2yo , and never won at a shorter distance than 1 mile as a 2yo.
How many of the above horses won a Guineas / how many won a Derby ?
SNA could be an anomally.
The 7f statement is my opinion only, you are completely entitled to dismiss it.

Slick, you do make fair points (I like the physical comparisons) and it's good to get differing views but I agree with Push.
Although I don't use speed figures I love the pace angle of races and the nature of SNA's races have been slowly run which is in stark contrast to how the Guineas will be run. The reason I'd like to have seen a run over 7f is because it would have shown that at two he had the natural speed to lay up with a Guineas pace, this unknown has to be factored in for me.

whether SNA can beat the top milers come July/Aug time is another matter entirely to his chances of beating them in May

Surely I can change the wording as follows:

whether SNA can beat the top milers come May time is another matter entirely to his chances of beating them in October

Perhaps then you see where I'm coming from?
For me it's only right to look for angles to take on horses and SNA has to be under a lot more scrutiny than others simply because of his position in the market and the tighter margins for getting it wrong.
I'm sure I speak for everyone who follows racing that they won't begrudge him victory in the Guineas if they didn't back him but at the moment he isn't so I try to keep an open mind about the race.

All points well made, looking forward to what should be a cracker


now for the 1000gns, special duty there due to lack of alternatives? (btw have an even greater hard luck story relating to one of the 1000gns favourites who was offered to me in Jan09 for around 10000eur.... and i turned it down!

I'm a massive fan of Special Duty :x
Course form, class and top trainer. Struggling to find alternatives at the moment, maybe a live one hiding away like last year?!

Special Duty, 6F gp1 winner at 2, sire AWD 7.8, damsire AWD 7.7... will it stay ;-)

in all seriousness, looks quality and difficult to see beyond it, reviving fond memories of the brilliant and tough Hatoof

She's related to a couple of quick ground milers so I'd be hopeful, also showed good stamina in the Cheveley Park doing her best work at the finish as they say. Would be interesting if it was a bog.

Doubt Montjeu will ever get a Guineas winner, unless it is run on heavy ground.

Think he'll be alright without one :)

Push i've been looking at some of your comments for a long time now and your rarely right think before you post

I know, today was a bad day, ended up backing Dick Turpin . Lets see what tomorrow brings.

No need for aftertiming rubbish like that Rip, if you disagree with something feel free to put it up before the race. Plenty got it wrong today but there will be other days and all opinions are welcome (particularly on here where no one seems to post), Push puts up plenty of interesting threads that offer discussion for breeders and punters alike.

Thanks Ben, but hey people can say what they like, i dont take this forum seriously at all. Just wait until Primo Donna gets back , we can give him some grief :)

Did you get the winner today Ben ? I am pretty annoyed at myself as Makfi was a qualifier on my 10-1+ winner Trend, but when i saw the price on Betfair at 79-1 decided he must need soft ground , and his form was hard to evaluate.

Thanks to you push, I laid SNA. The 3/18 stat was very helpful in making my investment. Dont mind Rip, I suspect he is suffering from post traumatic hype disorder. Keep up the good work. ;)

cheers.

I did manage to get the winner push (see the Makfi thread on antepost). Looked all over a proper miler to me, as I said above it's all about finding the right profile of horse for the right race. From what I've seen of Dubawi's they go fine on quick ground, he's also out of a Green Desert mare so at that price was well worth a chance. The form wasn't amazing but he had done it all so well and if you think what prices an English horse with that profile would be it was pretty crazy really. Amazing to think he was sent to the sales at the end of last year when that owner so often gives them every chance, did show that he was on a massive upward curve though and would definitely improve on his past form.

I didn't back a horse in the race but i thought that Fencing Master was going to go close so hopefully he will come on from the run.

I just said that comment because i've yet to really see any of your predictions come right sometimes there way off

Dont worry push RVW thinks i am a joke, so welcome to the club.

well done ben on mafki almost jumped on it myself at the last minute
but like the other poster couldnt believe it was so big a price.
it was always going to like the goodish ground being out of a green desert mare . although the sire dubawi does get a lot who win on soft but you know what i believe about the damsires.

Yeah, I was thinking about your theory when I said he'd appreciate better ground, more than one side to a pedigree. On the price I think in any country the home crowd go with the ones that they know, often value in France with smaller British stables picking off lower Group races.