Big Brother 11
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Clearly news of Corin's impending eviction was leaked around 730 this evening when she drifted alarmingly from 5.6 to 10.
Happens with amazing regularity and certain accounts need to be investigated[>o]
Happens with amazing regularity and certain accounts need to be investigated[>o]
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Bollocks imho
just a snowball |
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Why then at the same time did both Sam and Steve spike noticeably higher?
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Few people leave big offers up on the win market close to the eviction and doesn't take much to push the queue out, like george says it's just a snowball effect. Was always likely Corin would get evicted with this weeks coverage, should be looking more into the eviction market and plunges on Steve rather than elsewhere
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Because that's what markets do ffs
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Wasn't a snowball, it was an avalanche! Surely they would have drifted gradually over the day if it was good old honest opinion! I smelt a rat anyway.
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It was a p1ss in the atlantic, on these markets
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Definitely insider trading this time. Clear evidence in many of the prices (and I'm usually arguing the opposite if people claim insider trading with no evidence).
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^agreed^
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"Clearly news of Corin's impending eviction was leaked around 730 this evening when she drifted alarmingly from 5.6 to 10.
Happens with amazing regularity and certain accounts need to be investigatedAngry" I dont think its a shock at all, her price was way to short based on the fact she had recieved so much air time this weeks its highly likely she was to be evicted. Much higher than what was quoted on betfair. |
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insider trading on a phone poll result
 next your be telling us that owners lay there own horses  |
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saw that exact movement on corin so used the information to hedge my outright on her in the 4 to go market.im not saying its right but its allways gonna happen so just scrutinise and use that information to your adavantage.
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saw that exact movement on corin so used the information to hedge my outright on her in the 4 to go market.im not saying its right but its allways gonna happen so just scrutinise and use that information to your adavantage.
Are you always sure that such a movement is insider trading so you can be sure to take advantage of it? It's not always going to happen, because mostly it doesn't happen as can be seen by following markets. It puts people off gambling and reduces liquidity. Betfair knows who it is and should take action. |
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This is all fine, but what about people backing Mario to go last night?
There was as much to suggest punters didn't have clue, as there was of 'inside info' If the market moves were all to be believed Steve, Corin, John and Mario would have gone |
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It was Sam who was backed in GB - on Outright and Top Male
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Mario too on the 4 to go JR
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plenty of liquidity for mario 2.5-2.75 range
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Corin was undoubtedly just a snowball, punters simply realised she was likely to go
Only thing that looked slightly odd to me was Steve being backed on the 4 to go |
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Sam was only backed in to 9 when the show started and his crowd reaction was good. He was layed for around £400 at 13.5 at the aforementioned time, when he could have easily been layed in dribs and drabs at shorter imo. I don't buy all this "they were too short" or they would have drifted much earlier and not in one hit. The only
point I would accept is that the liquidity approaching eviction does dry up, but there were still 2 hours to go in what is a strong market. |
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Only thing that looked slightly odd to me was Steve being backed on the 4 to go
and dave being layed very confidently all week in the same market. if there was any inside trading, thats where it was done...and i also think the friday edit had no bearing on the result |
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Even Steve could prob be explained by people betting on the polls.
I thought he was a decent lay at 1.3 ish |
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...and must have been very close to Dave
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the only reason why i didnt lay steve at 1.3 was because the market stank and i had lumped the kooont in the OR
 luckily i also lumped mario OR so got a good trade there. |
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My Steve losses were covered by Corin, so no probs
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And I shifted a 6k red off the OR
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Thanks for all the cash army [;)]
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agreed pepper well obvious crowd reaction an dave started around 1.4 beggining of week to 2s plus with an endless supply available there
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wan ker |
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The updated BBonline and Survation polls were the main reason, not pesky insiders.
I layed Corin off the back of them and I'm sure plenty of others did too. I wasn't laying for big amounts as I'm pretty cautious and she was still a decent green in the end, just incase, but I did lay as high as 9.4. |
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^ that
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And as GB says. Steve only just went.
We are at heart a compassionate nation and I never thought people would be rushing to their phones to vote out someone who had taken such a huge knock at an early age. |
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The safe bet was just to lump on Josie last week
I'm amazed she didn't go lower |
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Steve crashing to 3.2 to be next out was clear insider trading, I don't think anyone can deny that... None of the others came in in any serious way. There was absolutely no reason to think he would be first out.
Considering there was almost certainly at least 1 piece of insider knowledge around, it's difficult to just dismiss the other major price moves as nothing. Corin drift from 5's to 10+, Dave drift to go to 2.8, Steve backed relentlessly down to 1.11 to go - possibly just natural market moves, but it smells pretty fishy to me |
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I suspect someone/people knew that it was going to be reverse order. I don't think that anyone knew the voting patterns.
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