The Corin Dilemma

I think if she stays she wins,

but theres a big doubt over her staying now. If she gets a bad edit tonight i'll be gutted

A final 4 of josie, andrew, mario and JJ2 will be unwatchable

Regardless of who is to blame, the JJ1 and Sam fans will be targetting Corin, so I don't understand how she can't be a big contender for eviction.
As you say Arbitrage, she is receiving a very high amount of coverage, making her a prime target.
Along with the fake claims,  regardless of whether they are true or false will also be ammunition for the eviction voters.

will struggle not to be evicted imho, but also think Josie support is diminishing.

I agree cj, but feel she does have a lot of support.
I'd love nothing more than a close run finish to put some life back into the outright market.

Happy with the way the edits are going with Corin go though, as it increases Stevo's chances of staying in.

There's a value angle on this somewhere....just strggling with the maths at present!

Would say I doubt she would be as short as 6/4 if she survives Arb which is the implied price.

Yep thats what I'm looking at. Assume Sam and JJ gone and remaiining a none event, this would lead possibly leave Josie 1.5+ and Corin 2.5+????? Any other views?

Can someone check my maths.....she is a lay in eviction at 2.5 so 1.5 to stay. She is 4.2 in outright so implied outright if she's stays is 2.8?

What Corin really needs is not a good edit for her, but a bad edit for one of her rivals (probably Steve ideally as I personally think Dave has earned his haters).  The kind of thing I'm thinking of is finding out that he'd stolen some of Keeley's underwear, or worse still, siding with John James in an argument.

think the odds on her going are wrong though imho, should be shorter

cjh.....at present she must be about evens to go?

thats what I would probably say yes

which would mean she should be 5.6 in the outright.   CHARGE

i'm struggling with josie's price post-friday as well.

given the likely evictions good chance she shortens a lot...but is it justified???
she is probably losing a little bit of support here and there but most importantly her reaction to losing JJ1 is hard to factor in.

does she shrug it off knowing it's only 4 days left, enjoy her time, becoming entertaining and walk away with it.....

or does she mope around, talk constantly about him, eat/sleep herself through 4 days and throw it away.....

You decide......

Right now, I would make Corin favourite to win if she survives Friday - the problem is that I also think there's a very good chance she'll be in a hotel on Friday night.

tbf to Josie, she did stand up for Corin.  It's the first time I have seen anything like a winner in her over the last couple of days.  Unless Same stays she is heading for 1.5

*Sam

oops, wrong account

cheers A1

FinancialHemorrage Joined: 10 Jan 02
Replies: 158 19 Aug 10 11:21   

Right now, I would make Corin favourite to win if she survives Friday 

tbf I don't know how u can think that....if she doesn't go friday it doesn't mean she's a shoe-in for a big positive vote count, and josie has remained strong fav right through...and given the way she's backed up corin over last few days and put JJ1 in his place is probably more worthy now than at any point in series.

I still don't like the whale, and she (in partnership with JJ1 and BB prods) have pretty much ruined it this year, but right at this moment in time she wins for me. unfortunately.

LOL Arb good cop bad cop

Differences of opinion are what betting is all about. That is what I think and I have bet accordingly...we are probably adversaries in the market.  Good luck.

Would never do that myself[;)]

Topper - as I saw on an earlier post, you're a good bookmaker!

I'm genuinely confused but have a basic knowledge of probability. I reckon the current outright and eviction markets are saying she goes to 2.3 if she survives.  This seems too short.

Now I have a bit more time to play with my model, I think she should be 4.6 in the outright if you think 2.5 is a fair price on survival.

As always any feedback welcome.


Don't even get me started on Sam - one of his prices is very wrong!!!!!

or both army [;)]

Backing Sam to go and win the outright is an interesting proposition!

I flagged up last night that I thought sam was value @ 14/1 with cover to stake on eviction. Re corin if shes evens to go that implies shes 2.5 to win if surviving. If shes 6/4 to go that implies shes 15/8 if surviving. Given the choice a lay in the outright looks better than backing her for eviction at evens. VCs 2/1 on the other hand is far too big.

OK, let's try this one last time.

The orange atrocity has ZERO chance. 1000 is the correct price.

The reason the maths "doesn't work" is that the two outcomes are inter-related.

when you read the spin they have put on this, it doesn't look good for Corin at all.

http://bb-cache.channel4.com/bigbrother/article/news/2010/Aug/19/john-james-talks-to-nathan/view.c4

There is also the fact that a lot of people only really start to vote from this point onwards... a bad time to be gaining bad edits and momentum.
Voting out Sam by JJ1 fans is 'so last week'.

Sam is considered part of his group, and less of a target. Sam fans also recognise the target that is now corin.  Twitter has this covered imo.

On returning to the House, she revealed the details to John James and suggested that Big Brother might even need to get some security in for the wrap party. Her exaggeration of the conversation caused him to worry about Nathan’s (and the public’s) opinion of him so once again he headed to the Diary Room to ask to leave.



that could play very very bad for corin and if they edit in a way where she could'nt wait to tell him and how happy she was after...its curtains for corin bigtime.

edit is massive tonite

wow that's bad..

Especially if they show the smug looks, singing and the crab-eyes comments. Nathan wound her right up to say/do those things just for effect.  Depends what they show of the date?

Corin odds on to go now

Corin will be evicted and heres why....(eviction history)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavily featured in the HLs and even thohgh she is the one that is being shouted at and being treated like crap, she will go... further explanations...

1. Stuart has a go at Penny. Penny goes. (BB2 Week 1)
2. Coolio winds Lucy Pinder up, she does nothing to react and cries. Lucy goes. (CBB6 Week 1)
3. Coolio makes Michelle cry and has an argument with her. Michelle goes (CBB6 Week 3).
4. Mario argues with Stephanie, Stephanie stands up to Alexandra the horrible HM. Stephanie goes (BB9 Week 1)
5. Victor bitches about Jade, Jade shown footage of Victor bitching about her. Jade cries. Jade evicted in shock eviction when Victor was hot fave to go (BBCH Week 1).
6. John James makes Rachael cry. Rachael goes (BB11 Week 1)
7. John James makes Sunshine cry due to "Vaginagate", Sunshine evicted. (BB11 Week 3).
8. Everyone turns on Sophie, most HMs bitch about her, make her cry. Sophie goes (BB3).

As absurd as all this, if they decide to put this sort of spin on it in the highlights - and this is by no means certain as the C4 BB website edit often has not tallied with what we've see in the h/l - you can see the tweenies smashing into Corin, and Corin going out first - 20s with Betfred is a decent speculative wager imo

Good post army. I suspect you are right

got it off DS, you dont think i could come up with that on my own do you ?

we need the spoiler JR but you may be right, corin is portrayed as the gangsters moll in that news clip...not good

25k+ John James FB page... corins definately in the firing line today.

.http://www.facebook.com/pages/John-James/128532160509579?v=wall

the tweenies vs DS

he is fit tho!..

Signed The Lusty Leveller 

fu ckin loons

FiancialHemorrage

I think the maths is fine.  The outright is dependent on the eviction market but the 2 markets are separate and so you can imply prices by doing the maths.

Where I think "the maths" doesn't work is because we don't know who the other finalists will be.

I have had 10 points on Sam to be evicted at 1.3 and 3 points on him in the outright at 14.0.  If he goes I lose nothing, if he stays I am on him at a net 3.23 in the outright.  If he survives there will only be Josie to beat.

Or have I got the maths wrong??

Actually that is bollox cos I lose 7 units in the process.  Right I'm going to leave this maths alone.

army

Frankly, I did think I was going insane

It's a really poor bet imho Arb. Sam won't beat Josie if he gets to the final.

I have looked at this again.  The 2 bet scenario could be modelled with all the outcomes but I don't have the time or inclination.

However I do think it can be used to demonstrate good or poor value in the outright.  I ditched all my green on Corin at 4.2 this morning on the back of this.

If Sam does somehow avoid eviction then his current outright price looks big IF you think he will trade sub 3 in the final.  Personally I think his eviction price is too big.

Sorry Arb been busy, you should have backed 100 @ 1.3 sam to be evicted and had 30 on him in the outright at 14/1.
So if he goes you win 30 on the eviction lose 30 on the outright level. If he stays your 420 to 30 becomes a 320 to 130 so youve backed him at 5/2 if he stays, which looks fair given if he stays its unlikely Corin will.

That's what I thought then got confused

Still some value in this?

crabs buzzin

corin stays

Corin at 24-27 at Spin is a massive sell.  Max MU is 50 and Josie is still odds on to win so she more likely marks up 30 if she stays.  However if she goes you win the full 24 x your stake. 

With the right staking you could lay her for eviction at around evens tonight and make a killing no matter what.

just noted that on lf thread

Agreed baz, just saw that.

Just can't face taking it having seen her at 30-33 a couple of days back...

although more cryptically