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bazbazzerbarry
30 Jul 10 11:34
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Date Joined: 20 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 22 | Blogger: bazbazzerbarry's blog
I honestly don't know who will go tonight but I do know which way the market is gonna go......

When Davina runs through the numbers for the first time, Ben is gonna be mixed with boos and cheers.  Nobody can deny that he has fans and the DS types which still love him will be undoubtedly there in attendance.  With the crowds voices nicely warmed up, Dave with no fans is gonna get the loudest boos by a mile.  The market is certain to move and a flip flop will arise 5 mins into the show if not before.

Now if you weren't wanting to trade, do the crowd have an effect on the actual votes.  Whilst I can imagine that Dave hasn't got out his full vote out yet on Wed or Thu, I think the eviction crowd could give the voters a prod in voting out the monk. If Dave is a little behind Ben I think he goes and whilst I haven't got a clue who is leading, it isn't impossible that Dave is clear already. 

The Kitten may post about 50% of all this forums posts and he may start as many threads as everyone else but he wont be able to stop the slide when the show starts with his multi posting or his £20 bets.

My prices at 9:30 are Dave 1.6 and Ben 2.8.  Good luck.
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Report The Kitten July 30, 2010 11:37 AM BST
Dave +£1460
Ben +£627
JJ +£978
Andrew +£692

Devil
Report bazbazzerbarry July 30, 2010 12:29 PM BST
Nice book Kitten.  Levelling when the flip comes?
Report Goldie08 July 30, 2010 12:34 PM BST
Tonights spoiler is key.
Report bazbazzerbarry July 30, 2010 12:48 PM BST
The early part, yes.  Ben 1.94 - it's coming.
Report Goldie08 July 30, 2010 12:54 PM BST
Anything interesting happen yesterday morning, that they will be showing first?
Report bazbazzerbarry July 30, 2010 1:03 PM BST
Dave's wife went in early afternoon I think.  Not particularly bad for him I dont think but it's exposure all the same.  He did say something about having the lord in his belly or something and any god chatter is obviously bad for him.

With Mario's antics later on filling a lot of time it could feature very early.  Dunno about Ben until later on.
Report chepster July 30, 2010 1:10 PM BST
I thought this was a 'Dave to Win' Thread!!!

I was about to join [:D]
Report Parishinho July 30, 2010 1:35 PM BST
Dave to Win! May we all be drunk on our lord!
Report The Kitten July 30, 2010 1:52 PM BST
It's a toss of the coin job.

I think the crux of it is that Ben does have a fan base that will be avidly voting out Dave. Dave has a very low positive poll.

Dave is pretty generally disliked.

I think Dave will go.
Report The Kitten July 30, 2010 1:53 PM BST
And as you say, the crowd reaction will be anti-Dave.

Ben at 4/6
Dave at 6/4

There's only one sensible bet there.
Report Phil_98164 July 30, 2010 5:22 PM BST
Ben has shortened back to where he was last night, is this likely to be people trading off? I'm trying to reduce losses so backing one horse would suit me better than two but I want to lose as less as possible so don't know how to play it.
Report The Kitten July 30, 2010 5:49 PM BST
All I can say Phil is that it's Evens each of two if I was priocing it from scratch, and I would expect Dave to go fav during the show.

The odds look well off to me now - Ben much too short.

But what do I know?
Report Cider July 30, 2010 5:50 PM BST
It has been known for some juicy stuff to be 'missing' from the spoiler, for whatever reason..
Report the_realist July 30, 2010 10:03 PM BST
coin flip this,

i've layed ben but i want him out
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