Big Brother 11
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Some thoughts on a likely winner now we're at the halfway stage:
JJ: For me, fits the profile best at this stage. Had a shakey start with the incomprehensible rants at Rachel, but is certainly true to himself and has a strict, if slightly deranged, moral code and sense of justice. The looks help, as does the blessing of the production team, and his tedious dalliance with Josie seems to have damaged her rather than him. He's shown sensitivity, tears, sticks to his guns and obviously cares about something or other quite passionately (answers on a postcard please). I can see him winning at a canter if he gets to the final night, although that's a big if. There's a walk risk of course, and he may face a fair few eviction contests in the next month or so, including potentially damaging three or four-ways. That said, I have him down as winner at this stage.
Josie: No chubster has ever won BB, and I can can't see Josie bucking the trend here. She's hidden her psycho tendencies better than Bea ever managed, but she hasn't been banned from half of Bristol for nothing imo. One good soundbite about monkeys does not a winner make. She'll be involved in at least one eviction before the end and may well struggle to survive. Even if she does, nothing more than third or fourth place beckons.
Corin: I just can't see it, although I think she's nice enough. She's just wants to win too damn much. We haven't seen a **** in the make-up yet and to be honest I don't think we ever will. It's ok to have steely ambition in BB, but it's not ok to show it. Corin doesn't need anyone but herself (understandable after her husband died), but I think that's a problem in a contest that demands empathy.
Ben: Funny, witty and good to watch but shares a problem with Corin: he's just too self-contained for the voters to really empathise with him. No one's really going to feel for Ben, share his problems or root for him when things go wrong. A good housemate, but not a likely winner imo, unless something in the house actually touches his soul between now and september.
Mario: Nah. You wouldn't pick up the phone for Mario would you? Why? A fourth or fifth place for Moley at best.
Andrew: My only covering bet at the moment. He's still to be "discovered" as a person, but I like the new-found edge he's gained in the last few days, and the live vocal tomorrow could be the making of the lad. As could Josie. Boozy boorishness could scupper him yet, but if anyone's going to make a late run I can see it being him. Making w*nker signs at Andrew Stone certainly works for me.
Steve: No casual final night voter is casual enough to vote for Steve surely.
Rachel: Shut the f*ck up Rachel. Sweet, but an obvious wannabe. Not a recipe for success.
Dave: Nom-dodging chancer.
Keeley: Currently munching grapes, enjoying the morphine drip, and filling in a Claims Direct form. Doubt she'll be back.
Apols for the length. Any thoughts?
JJ: For me, fits the profile best at this stage. Had a shakey start with the incomprehensible rants at Rachel, but is certainly true to himself and has a strict, if slightly deranged, moral code and sense of justice. The looks help, as does the blessing of the production team, and his tedious dalliance with Josie seems to have damaged her rather than him. He's shown sensitivity, tears, sticks to his guns and obviously cares about something or other quite passionately (answers on a postcard please). I can see him winning at a canter if he gets to the final night, although that's a big if. There's a walk risk of course, and he may face a fair few eviction contests in the next month or so, including potentially damaging three or four-ways. That said, I have him down as winner at this stage.
Josie: No chubster has ever won BB, and I can can't see Josie bucking the trend here. She's hidden her psycho tendencies better than Bea ever managed, but she hasn't been banned from half of Bristol for nothing imo. One good soundbite about monkeys does not a winner make. She'll be involved in at least one eviction before the end and may well struggle to survive. Even if she does, nothing more than third or fourth place beckons.
Corin: I just can't see it, although I think she's nice enough. She's just wants to win too damn much. We haven't seen a **** in the make-up yet and to be honest I don't think we ever will. It's ok to have steely ambition in BB, but it's not ok to show it. Corin doesn't need anyone but herself (understandable after her husband died), but I think that's a problem in a contest that demands empathy.
Ben: Funny, witty and good to watch but shares a problem with Corin: he's just too self-contained for the voters to really empathise with him. No one's really going to feel for Ben, share his problems or root for him when things go wrong. A good housemate, but not a likely winner imo, unless something in the house actually touches his soul between now and september.
Mario: Nah. You wouldn't pick up the phone for Mario would you? Why? A fourth or fifth place for Moley at best.
Andrew: My only covering bet at the moment. He's still to be "discovered" as a person, but I like the new-found edge he's gained in the last few days, and the live vocal tomorrow could be the making of the lad. As could Josie. Boozy boorishness could scupper him yet, but if anyone's going to make a late run I can see it being him. Making w*nker signs at Andrew Stone certainly works for me.
Steve: No casual final night voter is casual enough to vote for Steve surely.
Rachel: Shut the f*ck up Rachel. Sweet, but an obvious wannabe. Not a recipe for success.
Dave: Nom-dodging chancer.
Keeley: Currently munching grapes, enjoying the morphine drip, and filling in a Claims Direct form. Doubt she'll be back.
Apols for the length. Any thoughts?
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Couldn't be arsed reading all that, sorry, but Ben Or JJ likely winner, IMO.
Ive missed a good portion of the show this year but from what Ive seen JJ lacks self-awareness which I think has been in the profile of every previous winner. On the frequent occasions hes been a **** hes shown little ability to reflect and realise he was in the wrong. He also regards himself as better than the show and this aloofness will not endear him to the bb producers and increase the chance that they will dispose of him. Hes a unique proposition though and I have him as a token green.
Corin is desperate to stay in the house and experience absolutely everything it has to offer to the full. I dont think shes desperate to win and she probably thinks she has little or no chance of doing so. Her lack of cynicism, her willingness to put 100% into everything and her ability to deliver entertaining TV gives her a big advantage. Its why she gets the prize tomorrow night.
Corin is desperate to stay in the house and experience absolutely everything it has to offer to the full. I dont think shes desperate to win and she probably thinks she has little or no chance of doing so. Her lack of cynicism, her willingness to put 100% into everything and her ability to deliver entertaining TV gives her a big advantage. Its why she gets the prize tomorrow night.
balsamic what is different about JJ's profile to Rex or Siavash?
I know that he is compulsive viewing to many women. That doesn't mean they will think him worthy of winning.
I know that he is compulsive viewing to many women. That doesn't mean they will think him worthy of winning.
You'd also imagine blokes that might vote in these polls for him will not bother voting on the night.
I wouldn't rule him out, but there have been plenty of examples of these people failing to gather the popular vote at the end.
Marcus would have gone the same way
I wouldn't rule him out, but there have been plenty of examples of these people failing to gather the popular vote at the end.
Marcus would have gone the same way
Let's compare him with Rex and Siavash? Marcus would have had blokes voting for him in the polls (thought he was a tw@t myself). However I imagined all JJ's poll votes to be women, correct me if I'm wrong?
First they fancy him, and then they love all his JJJ relationship quandaries. They also like his attempts to find a moral way, although that's his weak point (as he is weak and hypocritical so he's really just building a paper church) and they start to see through him.
He's also a bit negative unlike all BB winners (bar Nadia who was forgiven negativity because of her immense journey).
First they fancy him, and then they love all his JJJ relationship quandaries. They also like his attempts to find a moral way, although that's his weak point (as he is weak and hypocritical so he's really just building a paper church) and they start to see through him.
He's also a bit negative unlike all BB winners (bar Nadia who was forgiven negativity because of her immense journey).
Difficult to compare to Siavash, he was just a faux-sensitive boring cnut, and more complex than Rex I think.
If there was a market for 2nd place, I'd go all in. He'll be defeated in the h2h at the end I think. Although the chance of eviction is always there
If there was a market for 2nd place, I'd go all in. He'll be defeated in the h2h at the end I think. Although the chance of eviction is always there
The first two para's of my last post apply equally to Siavash, and most of the female web comments defending JJ were the same that Siavash got.
If there was a market for 2nd place, I'd go all in
Siavash again.
If there was a market for 2nd place, I'd go all in
Siavash again.
Maybe then. Personally I think it's dangerous to compare HM's directly to what has gone before, I'm sure he is more appealing than Siavash and is unlikely to be up against a hurtling train like Sophie in the final.
*although of course we can surmise things based on 'type' of housemate, and it makes us much of our profit
So odd how he is forgiven for all his rantings. A female, or unattractive male would have lasted about a minute
2 weeks shorter is unfortunate, may make a difference.
How do you mean Henry? Not enough time for people to tire of him?
12 weeks is surely enough if it's going to happen.
I think you'll see a dip in the popularity for now, as the prods consciously try to find other stories. In fairness to them it's been the only one in town for quite a while
12 weeks is surely enough if it's going to happen.
I think you'll see a dip in the popularity for now, as the prods consciously try to find other stories. In fairness to them it's been the only one in town for quite a while
Agree with a lot in the original post, still think its very difficult to find a winner but for me at the moment JJ is the most likely.
People forget he's just 24 and he's lost his father i think thats more than enough reason for some of his negative behaviour its no wonder he has a lot of anger given the death of his father at such a young age.
Despite all his negatives with his temper he has shown that hes a good friend and he will stick up for himself and others if he thinks they've been wronged, theres a lot more to him than just a pretty boy who like to argue. He has shown a vulnerable side and unlike other good looking young HMs hes clearly not very confident with his looks or when it comes to girls and relationships.
Of the other likely winners they all have negatives, Corin while probably the "nicest" HM is irritating and doesn't have much depth to her, also they have focussed on how desperate she is to stay in the house and be famous, its a given that most of the HM want some sort of fame but she is coming accross as willing to do anything to be famous which isn't an attractive quality.
People forget he's just 24 and he's lost his father i think thats more than enough reason for some of his negative behaviour its no wonder he has a lot of anger given the death of his father at such a young age.
Despite all his negatives with his temper he has shown that hes a good friend and he will stick up for himself and others if he thinks they've been wronged, theres a lot more to him than just a pretty boy who like to argue. He has shown a vulnerable side and unlike other good looking young HMs hes clearly not very confident with his looks or when it comes to girls and relationships.
Of the other likely winners they all have negatives, Corin while probably the "nicest" HM is irritating and doesn't have much depth to her, also they have focussed on how desperate she is to stay in the house and be famous, its a given that most of the HM want some sort of fame but she is coming accross as willing to do anything to be famous which isn't an attractive quality.
How do you mean Henry? Not enough time for people to tire of him?
Yes that's my worry, not enough time to see through him. Last year's result may well have been different 2 weeks earlier, but I agree that it probably is enough time this time.
Yes that's my worry, not enough time to see through him. Last year's result may well have been different 2 weeks earlier, but I agree that it probably is enough time this time.
In the year when the 'nice' characters are failing to live up to their billing, it would be interesting to see two marmites go h2h in the final. I think Ben would stand a good chance too
But I still think Josie will horrify those on here with the size of her vote
But I still think Josie will horrify those on here with the size of her vote
My twopenneth:
Mario - too creepy
Corin - touch desperate
Steve - edit dependent
Andrew - masked anger
Rachel - also ran
Keely - too ****ure
Dave - fat cleric
Ben - posh tool
Josie & John James - they decide
Summary
All come with negatives. I suspect there will either be a 'crucial moment' or it will be case of which of the runners picks up momentum in the final two weeks.
Mario - too creepy
Corin - touch desperate
Steve - edit dependent
Andrew - masked anger
Rachel - also ran
Keely - too ****ure
Dave - fat cleric
Ben - posh tool
Josie & John James - they decide
Summary
All come with negatives. I suspect there will either be a 'crucial moment' or it will be case of which of the runners picks up momentum in the final two weeks.
Josie & John James - they decide
Don't you think that's sad if true lg? The only two housemates in there incapable of genuine warmth.
Don't you think that's sad if true lg? The only two housemates in there incapable of genuine warmth.
Good post lg.
I've levelled out my book somewhat with the newbies coming in - my green on Ben was bordering on obscene. That's the reason he's drifted BTW, me laying off.
It's my contention that they could put in 3 random people they dragged off the street, and one of them would have a decent chance of winning, this lot are so dire.
I've levelled out my book somewhat with the newbies coming in - my green on Ben was bordering on obscene. That's the reason he's drifted BTW, me laying off.
It's my contention that they could put in 3 random people they dragged off the street, and one of them would have a decent chance of winning, this lot are so dire.
I haven't watched much of this rubbish this year and from what I have seen, I wouldn't want to even try and call the winner yet. It could be a bit like last year when the winner doesn't necessarily have to do anything spectacular - just be there until the end whilst all the other HMs self-destruct. From what I see, there's a few that could possibly win if they're 'lucky' enough to still be there at the end - even someone as dull as Steve could win.
Of the three previous newbies:-
1 missing in action, return highly dubious
1 foghorn wannabe
1 geek
The producers must be suicidal.
1 missing in action, return highly dubious
1 foghorn wannabe
1 geek
The producers must be suicidal.
And now Ben says he may walk on LF, due to lack of sleep.
I really think he may now, he getting pissed off.
I really think he may now, he getting pissed off.
However I imagined all JJ's poll votes to be women, correct me if I'm wrong?
Yep, I believe you are wrong.
JJ appeals to the same kind of male and male punter who piled on the likes of Rex, Siavash and Science.
People who generally look down on the show and the vast majority of HM's.
Yep, I believe you are wrong.
JJ appeals to the same kind of male and male punter who piled on the likes of Rex, Siavash and Science.
People who generally look down on the show and the vast majority of HM's.
Interesting, I hadn't considered that. I wonder why they watch it.
JJ is a totally different beast to Rex - he says what he believes rather than something plausible that belittles others. He is the most likely winner at this stage. I'm not prepared to rule out Mario and Steve at this stage, and I also think Corin has a good chance - it is true that she is very self-reliant, but she is also sympathetic to peoples emotions generally.
It's only a view, but I think John James or Josie are the most likely winners. Arguably, they are both a backable price as it seems to me that the likes of Corin and Mario are too close to them in the betting. The risk is that, to a greater or lesser extent, Josie could ruin it for JJ or JJ could ruin it for Josie.
If it was a French horse race they would be paired.
If it was a French horse race they would be paired.
Some good points here, cheers.
I don't really get the Siavash/Rex comparisons with JJ. Rex was just a a bast*rd, but hugely entertaining with it. Siavash managed to utterly tie himself into knots, and by the end looked completely paralysed by indescision and vulnerable to whatever dirt the vengeful production team chucked his way. JJ's certainly on the horns of a dilema, but it's an everyday one that the voters will be interested in (attractive bloke likes bf but doesn't fancy her), and seems to be doing ok with it so far.
I still can't see any depth in Corin - she's a one note housemate, albeit a note that is strident and strong. Sophie had a fair bit of self-depricating humour and a lack of self control (appetite, booze etc) that really let the viewer into her world and negated the make-up mask.
I don't really get the Siavash/Rex comparisons with JJ. Rex was just a a bast*rd, but hugely entertaining with it. Siavash managed to utterly tie himself into knots, and by the end looked completely paralysed by indescision and vulnerable to whatever dirt the vengeful production team chucked his way. JJ's certainly on the horns of a dilema, but it's an everyday one that the voters will be interested in (attractive bloke likes bf but doesn't fancy her), and seems to be doing ok with it so far.
I still can't see any depth in Corin - she's a one note housemate, albeit a note that is strident and strong. Sophie had a fair bit of self-depricating humour and a lack of self control (appetite, booze etc) that really let the viewer into her world and negated the make-up mask.
Corin doesn't display the complete loss of empathy that sometimes happens with victims of tragedy at a young age (the "Why the hell are you whinging about something that trivial" type of mentality).
I still think that Rex, Siavash and JJ (I wouldn't include Science) are the types who were/are incredibly popular with the female voters. It must be the bad boy/don't give a fck sort of vibe where they are forgiven just about anything until there is a final straw scenario.
You see all these dopey birds on Kyle-type shows or on problem pages, they put up with anything from these type of guys (repeated cheating, no child support, etc.), asked why "cos I love 'im".
You see all these dopey birds on Kyle-type shows or on problem pages, they put up with anything from these type of guys (repeated cheating, no child support, etc.), asked why "cos I love 'im".
Arguably, they are both a backable price as it seems to me that the likes of Corin and Mario are too close to them in the betting.
In all BBs so far though, if the show lacks a hugely entertaining positive person, it's always been a Corin/Mario nicer quieter type, behind in the betting at this stage, that's come through and won.
In all BBs so far though, if the show lacks a hugely entertaining positive person, it's always been a Corin/Mario nicer quieter type, behind in the betting at this stage, that's come through and won.
Nice post Balsamic. Bit puzzled how you and others think that JJ is 'true to himself'. He's not - he's a raging hypocrite with a flexible moral code that fluctuates according to the circumstances and the person he is dealing with. I'm finding him increasingly tedious. How many times can he say he's leaving and not go without looking ridiculous? Hopefully the new HMs tonight will set him off again and this time he will go. Having said that given the flakiness of the field and his strong poll showing I can't write him off and I have had to pull my large red in a little recently. As for the others, here's my current thoughts:
Josie - I still like her, but less than before, she makes me laugh and her underdog (in life) status and self deprecating manner will appeal to many. The JJJ thing could yet create a defining moment for her and for this reason she can't be written off. Having said that she is clearly in danger if she finds herself facing a negative vote against the wrong housemate.
Ben - I am wary of writing anyone off, but Ben seems to have lost his role of lovable schmuck who keeps putting his foot in it. He is increasingly bitchy and negative and as a posh toff has a lot of baggage to overcome to get the GBP voting for him in their droves. Maybe the new HMs will breathe some new life into him, he certainly needs something if he is to get back into contention.
Corin - I thought her display during the Save and Replace was appalling and do feel it could have done her long term damage. More importantly it could be her undoing in the short term, giving HMs a perfect excuse to nominate her again and putting her in front of the public while the episode is fresh in the audience's mind. If she is there in the final week and she successfully puts Anklegate behind her I wouldn't write her off.
Mario - after hating him I quite like him. He had enormous support at the beginning and I don't think it will take too much for him to win it back at the end. He has less negatives than any of the others imo and the biggest story of the show under his belt - the fact that many of them still call him Moley will do his chances no harm. I was a big fan of Rodrigo so I might have a blind spot to this kind of HM but I think he has strong claims as a potential default winner if the others continue to self destruct or run out of steam.
Andrew - difficult to call and still early days. One thing is becoming clear - he is quirky, funny and quite subversive. Not sure whether he is 'nice' - perhaps not, but he certainly isn't boring and I can see him playing a central role over the coming weeks. Interesting that he has been chosen for the live vocal tonight.
Steve - another toughie. I think he is a dull unpleasant oaf, I would be appalled if he won, but can't dismiss the possibility of a hero vote propelling him to an undeserved victory. Right now I wouldn't back him below 20 though.
Dave - not overly keen. Hasn't done anything memorable in the house and doesn't seem to have the personality to mount a serious challenge.
Rachel - overeager wannabee, and she's black.
Keeley - would be surprised if she came back and astonished if she won.
Josie - I still like her, but less than before, she makes me laugh and her underdog (in life) status and self deprecating manner will appeal to many. The JJJ thing could yet create a defining moment for her and for this reason she can't be written off. Having said that she is clearly in danger if she finds herself facing a negative vote against the wrong housemate.
Ben - I am wary of writing anyone off, but Ben seems to have lost his role of lovable schmuck who keeps putting his foot in it. He is increasingly bitchy and negative and as a posh toff has a lot of baggage to overcome to get the GBP voting for him in their droves. Maybe the new HMs will breathe some new life into him, he certainly needs something if he is to get back into contention.
Corin - I thought her display during the Save and Replace was appalling and do feel it could have done her long term damage. More importantly it could be her undoing in the short term, giving HMs a perfect excuse to nominate her again and putting her in front of the public while the episode is fresh in the audience's mind. If she is there in the final week and she successfully puts Anklegate behind her I wouldn't write her off.
Mario - after hating him I quite like him. He had enormous support at the beginning and I don't think it will take too much for him to win it back at the end. He has less negatives than any of the others imo and the biggest story of the show under his belt - the fact that many of them still call him Moley will do his chances no harm. I was a big fan of Rodrigo so I might have a blind spot to this kind of HM but I think he has strong claims as a potential default winner if the others continue to self destruct or run out of steam.
Andrew - difficult to call and still early days. One thing is becoming clear - he is quirky, funny and quite subversive. Not sure whether he is 'nice' - perhaps not, but he certainly isn't boring and I can see him playing a central role over the coming weeks. Interesting that he has been chosen for the live vocal tonight.
Steve - another toughie. I think he is a dull unpleasant oaf, I would be appalled if he won, but can't dismiss the possibility of a hero vote propelling him to an undeserved victory. Right now I wouldn't back him below 20 though.
Dave - not overly keen. Hasn't done anything memorable in the house and doesn't seem to have the personality to mount a serious challenge.
Rachel - overeager wannabee, and she's black.
Keeley - would be surprised if she came back and astonished if she won.
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