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Amstel Gold Race

Sunday's Amstel Gold Race
Amstel Gold Race is the latest of Cycling’s Spring Classics, set in Southern Netherlands. After the cobbled classic races like Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix that favoured the peloton’s strongmen, Amstel Gold Race marks the first of the Ardennes Classics which will see the climbers and puncheurs come to prominence.
Route

Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are characterised by huge numbers of short, sharp climbs that sap the legs. The profile of this race resembles the bottom jaw of Roald Dahl’s Enormous Crocodile.
Profile

The Cauberg is the iconic climb associated with this race, and is climbed three times in all, including at finale. Last year the finish was moved a kilometre beyond the Cauberg and the route is the same for 2014. This means there is an intriguing tactical element to the race. Will the race be held together by teams with fast finishers, or will climbers attack, escape on the climb and stay away until the finish?
Riders Climbing the Cauberg and the Cauberg's Profile

Last year, 66/1 winner Roman Kreuziger escaped the bunch and stayed away to win solo. Behind him there was a sprint from a select group. 2013 Amstel Gold finishing kilometres here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI

This year’s race has a stellar cast. We have top quality climbers, the world’s best punchers, some fast men and some of the very best up-and-coming talent around. This all points towards an incredible race on Sunday.

Amstel Gold Race: Last year’s top ten (2013)
1. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff in 6-35-21
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar at 22secs
3. Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
4. Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-QuickStep
5. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing
6. Sergio Henao (Col) Sky
7. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM
8. Pieter Weening (Ned) Orica-GreenEdge
9. Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
10. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Blanco all same time

Amstel Gold Race: Recent winners
2013 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff
2012 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2010 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2009 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Team Katusha
2008 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre
2007 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner
2006 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
2005 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas-Bianchi
2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner

Amstel Gold Race 2014: Climbs
1. Slingerberg (105m, 9.4km)
2. Adsteeg (110m, 14.1km)
3. Lange Raarberg (140m, 22.3km)
4. Bergseweg (175m, 38km)
5. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 49.7km)
6. Cauberg (140m, 54.1km)
7. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 58.6km)
8. Wolfsberg (170m, 78.1km)
9. Loorberg (215m, 81.2km)
10. Schweibergerweg (220m, 92.5km)
11. Camerig (273m, 98.9km)
12. Drielandenpunt (320m, 109.5km)
13. Gemmenich (265m, 114km)
14. Vijlenerbos (276m, 117.8km)
15. Eperheide (224m, 126.5km)
16. Gulpenerberg (151m, 135.1km)
17. Plettenberg (141m, 138.6km)
18. Eijserweg (202m, 140.7km)
19. Huls (216m, 145.2km)
20. Vrakelberg (183m, 150.5km)
21. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 158.2km)
22. Cauberg (140m, 162.6km)
23. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 167.2km)
24. Bemelerberg (140m, 179.9km)
25. Loorberg (215m, 195.2km)
26. Gulpenerberg (151m, 204.7km)
27. Kruisberg (165m, 210.1km)
28. Eijserbosweg (195m, 212km)
29. Fromberg (165m, 215.8km)
30. Keutenberg (175m, 220.3km)
31. Cauberg (140m, 230.3km)
32. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 234.9km)
33. Bemelerberg (140m, 243.6km)
34. Cauberg (140m, 248.8km)

Amstel Gold Race: Contenders
All prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

Alejandro ‘El Bala’ Valverde (Movistar 9/2) Second last year, winning the bunch sprint behind Kreuziger, Valverde has been in fantastic form this year, with 6 wins already to his name. He has two Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a Fleche Wallone to his name, and he was second in three stages in the recent Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only Contador was climbing better than him. If it does come to a sprint from a largish group the Spaniard could be vulnerable to one or two faster men but is the one they have to beat. Valverde

Michal ‘Kwiato’ Kwiatowski (Quickstep – 7/1) The young Pole is one of the most exciting talents around. There is nothing this kid cannot do. He’s one of the best young time-triallers around, he can climb and he’ll beat all but the world class sprinters if it comes to a bunch finish. Kwiatowski was 4th in this last year and he’s definitely improved since then. In March he won Strade Bianchi and then wore the leaders’ jersey in Pais Vasco before being eventually outclimbed by Contador, and the month before that he won the GC in Algarve. Likely to be a very short price should it come down to a sprint from a select group.Kwiatowski

Phillipe ‘Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert (BMC – 12/1) Is it possible we are seeing the true Gilbert again now he’s been relieved of the pressure of having to wear the World Champions’ Rainbow Jersey? If his win in Brabanste Pijl is anything to go by, we could be. His record in this race is scary, and on his day he is untouchable on the sort of finish this race provides. He’s as short as 6/1 everywhere else and VC Bet are taking a bit of a chance with the standout price of 12/1 here.

Simon Gerrans (Orica – 14/1) Gerrans has had two podium finishes in this, including 3rd place last year. He did lots of work for Bling Matthews on Wednesday, and he should have a team happy to work for him. Gerrans isn’t often far away when he decides he is going to win a race, and he has all the qualities needed to win this, stamina, climbing ability and a superb fast finish.Gerrans

Tom Jelte Slagter (Garmin – 17/1) Another young star on the rise. Won the Santos Tour Down Under last year, and showed that form was no flash in the pan with two on-the-premises rides in Paris-Nice this year in stages with a similar profile to this. A very fast finisher on short-sharp climbs, doesn’t have the CV in big races of some of the other market principles but is clearly afraid of no-one and looks to have the goods to be a threat if Dan Martin and co are riding for him.Slagter

Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha -16/1) As short as 6/1 in places, the 18/1 Paddy Power are offering about the most explosive climber in the race looks an attractive proposition. Purito is one of the most popular riders around, and he’ll have plenty of fans on the Cauberg desperate for the Spaniard to add to his extensive palmares that includes 2 Lombardias, a Fleche Wallone, 8 stages of La Vuelta, a Giro podium and a 2nd in the World Road Race last year.
Rodriguez
Sorry, that should have been PURITO Rodriguez

Ben ‘Swifty’ Swift (Sky 28/1) One of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Ben Swift as a climber/puncher. Swifty astounded most with his third in Milan-San Remo after being up with the pace for most of the afternoon. He then showed that form was no fluke with a stage win in Coppi e Bartali, a 2nd place in Vais Pasco and then bettered that three days later with an astonishing win on a stage full of climbs when he had several of these rivals like Valverde, Kwiatowski and Slagter in his wake, not to mention Contador! His new lease of life makes him a live chance for a profile like this. If he gets over the Cauberg the third time and is anywhere near the front, he could complete a miraculous rags-to-riches journey and become the latest British cyclist to join the big names at the top table. Swift

Diego Ulissi (Lampre 30/1) Another of the young pretenders, Ulissi is building a massive reputation as a climber and GC rider. He’s another one with a fast-finish, and has a real tactical brain, and as such could be a real threat here. Diego Ulissi

Rui Costa (Lampre 40/1) If Ulissi doesn’t have the legs then Lampre have the luxury of the World Champion. Costa won two stages of the Tour de France last year, the GC at the Tour de Suisse and then the World Championship. With his climbing ability, stamina and ability to get in the right moves he must be at least an outside contender for this. There is a certain similarity between the Florence course where Costa won the Rainbow Jersey and the Amstel course, and it would be fantastic to see Costa gain his first win in the Champ’s Jersey here.
Rui Costa

Wout Poels won a Stage of Vais Pasco and out-rode the best climbers in the world. He has real speed on the shorter climbs and could be an outside punt. Bauke Mollema can climb away from anyone and if he can get away he’ll try to use his excellent time trialling skills to stay away. Roman Kreuziger is the defending challenger and has looked in great shape in recent weeks. As such he seems a bit big at 66/1 but realistically it’s difficult to see any circumstances where he’d be allowed to repeat last year’s escape. Two climbers who would look for a solo win in similar circumstances would be Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal. They’re both available at huge prices, probably because they are not first choice riders for their respective teams, but they could both cause an upset if on form and I’ve had a small play on both each way.
Poels


My bets
So many options here in a fascinating puzzle, but I’ll take my chances on:
Gerrans 14/1
Swift 28/1
Nibali 80/1
Hesjedal 100/1

Amstel Gold Race

Sunday's Amstel Gold Race
Amstel Gold Race is the latest of Cycling’s Spring Classics, set in Southern Netherlands. After the cobbled classic races like Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix that favoured the peloton’s strongmen, Amstel Gold Race marks the first of the Ardennes Classics which will see the climbers and puncheurs come to prominence.
Route

Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are characterised by huge numbers of short, sharp climbs that sap the legs. The profile of this race resembles the bottom jaw of Roald Dahl’s Enormous Crocodile.
Profile

The Cauberg is the iconic climb associated with this race, and is climbed three times in all, including at finale. Last year the finish was moved a kilometre beyond the Cauberg and the route is the same for 2014. This means there is an intriguing tactical element to the race. Will the race be held together by teams with fast finishers, or will climbers attack, escape on the climb and stay away until the finish?
Riders Climbing the Cauberg and the Cauberg's Profile

Last year, 66/1 winner Roman Kreuziger escaped the bunch and stayed away to win solo. Behind him there was a sprint from a select group. Watch the 2013 Amstel Gold finishing kilometres here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI

This year’s race has a stellar cast. We have top quality climbers, the world’s best punchers, some fast men and some of the very best up-and-coming talent around. This all points towards an incredible race on Sunday.

Amstel Gold Race: Last year’s top ten (2013)
1. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff in 6-35-21
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar at 22secs
3. Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
4. Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-QuickStep
5. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing
6. Sergio Henao (Col) Sky
7. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM
8. Pieter Weening (Ned) Orica-GreenEdge
9. Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
10. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Blanco all same time

Amstel Gold Race: Recent winners
2013 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff
2012 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2010 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2009 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Team Katusha
2008 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre
2007 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner
2006 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
2005 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas-Bianchi
2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner

Amstel Gold Race 2014: Climbs
1. Slingerberg (105m, 9.4km)
2. Adsteeg (110m, 14.1km)
3. Lange Raarberg (140m, 22.3km)
4. Bergseweg (175m, 38km)
5. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 49.7km)
6. Cauberg (140m, 54.1km)
7. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 58.6km)
8. Wolfsberg (170m, 78.1km)
9. Loorberg (215m, 81.2km)
10. Schweibergerweg (220m, 92.5km)
11. Camerig (273m, 98.9km)
12. Drielandenpunt (320m, 109.5km)
13. Gemmenich (265m, 114km)
14. Vijlenerbos (276m, 117.8km)
15. Eperheide (224m, 126.5km)
16. Gulpenerberg (151m, 135.1km)
17. Plettenberg (141m, 138.6km)
18. Eijserweg (202m, 140.7km)
19. Huls (216m, 145.2km)
20. Vrakelberg (183m, 150.5km)
21. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 158.2km)
22. Cauberg (140m, 162.6km)
23. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 167.2km)
24. Bemelerberg (140m, 179.9km)
25. Loorberg (215m, 195.2km)
26. Gulpenerberg (151m, 204.7km)
27. Kruisberg (165m, 210.1km)
28. Eijserbosweg (195m, 212km)
29. Fromberg (165m, 215.8km)
30. Keutenberg (175m, 220.3km)
31. Cauberg (140m, 230.3km)
32. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 234.9km)
33. Bemelerberg (140m, 243.6km)
34. Cauberg (140m, 248.8km)

Amstel Gold Race: Contenders
All prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

Alejandro ‘El Bala’ Valverde (Movistar 9/2) Second last year, winning the bunch sprint behind Kreuziger, Valverde has been in fantastic form this year, with 6 wins already to his name. He has two Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a Fleche Wallone to his name, and he was second in three stages in the recent Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only Contador was climbing better than him. If it does come to a sprint from a largish group the Spaniard could be vulnerable to one or two faster men but is the one they have to beat.
Valverde

Michal ‘Kwiato’ Kwiatowski (Quickstep – 7/1) The young Pole is one of the most exciting talents around. There is nothing this kid cannot do. He’s one of the best young time-triallers around, he can climb and he’ll beat all but the world class sprinters if it comes to a bunch finish. Kwiatowski was 4th in this last year and he’s definitely improved since then. In March he won Strade Bianchi and then wore the leaders’ jersey in Pais Vasco before being eventually outclimbed by Contador, and the month before that he won the GC in Algarve. Likely to be a very short price should it come down to a sprint from a select group.
Kwiatowski

Phillipe ‘Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert (BMC – 12/1) Is it possible we are seeing the true Gilbert again now he’s been relieved of the pressure of having to wear the World Champions’ Rainbow Jersey? If his win in Brabanste Pijl is anything to go by, we could be. His record in this race is scary, and on his day he is untouchable on the sort of finish this race provides. He’s as short as 6/1 everywhere else and VC Bet are taking a bit of a chance with the standout price of 12/1 here.

Gilbert
Simon Gerrans (Orica – 14/1) Gerrans has had two podium finishes in this, including 3rd place last year. He did lots of work for Bling Matthews on Wednesday, and he should have a team happy to work for him. Gerrans isn’t often far away when he decides he is going to win a race, and he has all the qualities needed to win this, stamina, climbing ability and a superb fast finish.
Gerrans

Tom Jelte Slagter (Garmin – 17/1) Another young star on the rise. Won the Santos Tour Down Under last year, and showed that form was no flash in the pan with two on-the-premises rides in Paris-Nice this year in stages with a similar profile to this. A very fast finisher on short-sharp climbs, doesn’t have the CV in big races of some of the other market principles but is clearly afraid of no-one and looks to have the goods to be a threat if Dan Martin and co are riding for him.
Slagter
Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha -16/1) As short as 6/1 in places, the 18/1 Paddy Power are offering about the most explosive climber in the race looks an attractive proposition. Purito is one of the most popular riders around, and he’ll have plenty of fans on the Cauberg desperate for the Spaniard to add to his extensive palmares that includes 2 Lombardias, a Fleche Wallone, 8 stages of La Vuelta, a Giro podium and a 2nd in the World Road Race last year.
Rodriguez
Sorry, that should have been PURITO Rodriguez

Ben ‘Swifty’ Swift (Sky 28/1) One of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Ben Swift as a climber/puncher. Swifty astounded most with his third in Milan-San Remo after being up with the pace for most of the afternoon. He then showed that form was no fluke with a stage win in Coppi e Bartali, a 2nd place in Vais Pasco and then bettered that three days later with an astonishing win on a stage full of climbs when he had several of these rivals like Valverde, Kwiatowski and Slagter in his wake, not to mention Contador! His new lease of life makes him a live chance for a profile like this. If he gets over the Cauberg the third time and is anywhere near the front, he could complete a miraculous rags-to-riches journey and become the latest British cyclist to join the big names at the top table.
Swift

Diego Ulissi (Lampre 30/1) Another of the young pretenders, Ulissi is building a massive reputation as a climber and GC rider. He’s another one with a fast-finish, and has a real tactical brain, and as such could be a real threat here.
Diego Ulissi

Rui Costa (Lampre 40/1) If Ulissi doesn’t have the legs then Lampre have the luxury of the World Champion. Costa won two stages of the Tour de France last year, the GC at the Tour de Suisse and then the World Championship. With his climbing ability, stamina and ability to get in the right moves he must be at least an outside contender for this. There is a certain similarity between the Florence course where Costa won the Rainbow Jersey and the Amstel course, and it would be fantastic to see Costa gain his first win in the Champ’s Jersey here.
Rui Costa

Wout Poels won a Stage of Vais Pasco and out-rode the best climbers in the world. He has real speed on the shorter climbs and could be an outside punt. Bauke Mollema can climb away from anyone and if he can get away he’ll try to use his excellent time trialling skills to stay away. Roman Kreuziger is the defending challenger and has looked in great shape in recent weeks. As such he seems a bit big at 66/1 but realistically it’s difficult to see any circumstances where he’d be allowed to repeat last year’s escape. Two climbers who would look for a solo win in similar circumstances would be Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal. They’re both available at huge prices, probably because they are not first choice riders for their respective teams, but they could both cause an upset if on form and I’ve had a small play on both each way.
My bets
So many options here in a fascinating puzzle, but I’ll take my chances on:
Gerrans 14/1
Swift 28/1
Nibali 80/1
Hesjedal 100/1