Basketball
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02 Jun 22
03:48
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06 Mar 21
nate has it 80 / 20 on one model
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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So the celtics took the first game and 538's model has moved them up to a 92% chance of winning the series.
The betting has moved from 2.42 to 1.67 for the celtics, an implied probablity move from 41% to 60%. An interesting battle between a stats model and the money markets, this article talks about it. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-might-be-overrating-the-celtics-but-youre-probably-underrating-them/ |
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The golden state warriors win game 2 to tie the series 1-1 after 2 home games for them.
538's model still makes boston celtics a whopping 82% shot to win the series. Bookies / exchange far less decided, exchange currently showing 1.95 celtics, 2.02 warriors. Next stop Boston for 2 games. |
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The celtics win game 3 and retake series lead 2-1.
538 raptor model has moved to 87% chance for boston winning series, would've been interesting to see how it reacted if the warriors had taken the lead. The exchange currently offering an implied probability of 67% on the celtics (1.49) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo |
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The warriors take game four and its all level at 2-2
538 model still has the celtics favourite, making them a 63% shot. Exchange has the warriors favourite, showing at 1.77, an implied probability of 56% It's off to San Fran, CA, for game 5 |
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The warriors win game 5 and take the series lead for the first time, 3-2.
At one game from victory, 538 model cedes that warriors are favourites, making them a 62% shot. Exchange shows warriors at 1.33, an implied probability of 75%. Back to boston for game 6, and if the celtics dont win it, then it will be the final game of the series. |
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The warriors win game 6 and it is all over!
Golden State warriors are NBA champions after beating Boston Celtics 4-2 in the finals. |