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gamblersnews@gmail.com
I see our SR for on top Peak ratings for yesterday Caulfield was 38%/for 8 selections. My interest is the SR for December (Victoria) and I see that is currently 28%/43 selections.
Our first effort to compile ratings for Sydney has started a bit shabby at 18%. See Punter.com graph). Nevertheless we can now start tightening the screws in time for the Sydney Autumn carnival (which is our objective there). Remember these ratings are calculated 2 days before race days hence some scratchings and no control over SP.
I see our SR for on top Peak ratings for yesterday Caulfield was 38%/for 8 selections. My interest is the SR for December (Victoria) and I see that is currently 28%/43 selections.
Our first effort to compile ratings for Sydney has started a bit shabby at 18%. See Punter.com graph). Nevertheless we can now start tightening the screws in time for the Sydney Autumn carnival (which is our objective there). Remember these ratings are calculated 2 days before race days hence some scratchings and no control over SP.
RACE 1 – CAULFIELD (20 DECEMBER 2025)
RACE ANALYSIS
TOUCHDOWN (4)
Rating: 78 | Peak: 84 | Performance Edge: +4.2 | Ceiling Edge: +5.0
A lightly raced gelding who is trending sharply the right way, having put space on his rivals in consecutive wins. He
showed authority at the mile two runs back before repeating the dose here last start with sustained strength through
the line. His ratings profile suggests he is still building toward his ceiling rather than plateauing. The ability to absorb
pressure and keep extending is a major asset in this grade. Maps to get a clean stalking run and, if he maintains his
recent progression, he sets the standard again. Clear top-rated runner on both current and peak measures.
SIGIRIYA ROCK (3)
Rating: 75 | Peak: 81 | Performance Edge: +3.1 | Ceiling Edge: +3.8
Has been racing consistently without winning, but the form around him remains solid. His last two efforts suggest he
is holding his shape well against comparable opposition, just lacking the final knockout punch. Drawn to potentially
adopt a more assertive role, which could see him control the race shape if he rolls forward early. His peak rating
keeps him firmly in the contest if things fall his way. Needs to dictate or sit outside the leader to maximise his
chance.
TRAPALANDA (5)
Rating: 73 | Peak: 80 | Performance Edge: +3.0 | Ceiling Edge: +4.1
Returned in excellent order at Ballarat, producing a strong first-up run that suggested he had come back more
furnished. The extra distance is a clear positive given his sustained closing sectionals, and his peak rating hints
there is improvement still to come second-up. Likely to settle midfield and build momentum rather than sprint
sharply. If the tempo is genuine, his strength late could see him loom as a serious threat. One of the better upside
profiles in the race.
ASEVENTY SEVEN (7)
Rating: 71 | Peak: 76 | Performance Edge: +2.4 | Ceiling Edge: +2.9
Steps up in grade but brings honest recent form and a reliable work rate. He has been finding the line well without
winning, indicating his fitness base is solid. While his ratings sit slightly below the main hopes, his consistency and
tactical versatility keep him in the mix for minor money. Likely to be prominent without overdoing it early. Needs
others to underperform to threaten for the win but profiles as a sound exotics runner.
NAINA (8)
Rating: 69 | Peak: 75 | Performance Edge: +2.1 | Ceiling Edge: +3.0
Forgive her last run where she failed to fire, as it followed a performance that showed genuine promise. Her peak
rating comes from that earlier win, which suggests she can be competitive if she rebounds to that level. The key is
whether she can re-establish rhythm early in the run. Likely to be ridden with cover and saved for one late effort. Not
without hope, but needs to rediscover her best to feature strongly.
RACE ANALYSIS
TOUCHDOWN (4)
Rating: 78 | Peak: 84 | Performance Edge: +4.2 | Ceiling Edge: +5.0
A lightly raced gelding who is trending sharply the right way, having put space on his rivals in consecutive wins. He
showed authority at the mile two runs back before repeating the dose here last start with sustained strength through
the line. His ratings profile suggests he is still building toward his ceiling rather than plateauing. The ability to absorb
pressure and keep extending is a major asset in this grade. Maps to get a clean stalking run and, if he maintains his
recent progression, he sets the standard again. Clear top-rated runner on both current and peak measures.
SIGIRIYA ROCK (3)
Rating: 75 | Peak: 81 | Performance Edge: +3.1 | Ceiling Edge: +3.8
Has been racing consistently without winning, but the form around him remains solid. His last two efforts suggest he
is holding his shape well against comparable opposition, just lacking the final knockout punch. Drawn to potentially
adopt a more assertive role, which could see him control the race shape if he rolls forward early. His peak rating
keeps him firmly in the contest if things fall his way. Needs to dictate or sit outside the leader to maximise his
chance.
TRAPALANDA (5)
Rating: 73 | Peak: 80 | Performance Edge: +3.0 | Ceiling Edge: +4.1
Returned in excellent order at Ballarat, producing a strong first-up run that suggested he had come back more
furnished. The extra distance is a clear positive given his sustained closing sectionals, and his peak rating hints
there is improvement still to come second-up. Likely to settle midfield and build momentum rather than sprint
sharply. If the tempo is genuine, his strength late could see him loom as a serious threat. One of the better upside
profiles in the race.
ASEVENTY SEVEN (7)
Rating: 71 | Peak: 76 | Performance Edge: +2.4 | Ceiling Edge: +2.9
Steps up in grade but brings honest recent form and a reliable work rate. He has been finding the line well without
winning, indicating his fitness base is solid. While his ratings sit slightly below the main hopes, his consistency and
tactical versatility keep him in the mix for minor money. Likely to be prominent without overdoing it early. Needs
others to underperform to threaten for the win but profiles as a sound exotics runner.
NAINA (8)
Rating: 69 | Peak: 75 | Performance Edge: +2.1 | Ceiling Edge: +3.0
Forgive her last run where she failed to fire, as it followed a performance that showed genuine promise. Her peak
rating comes from that earlier win, which suggests she can be competitive if she rebounds to that level. The key is
whether she can re-establish rhythm early in the run. Likely to be ridden with cover and saved for one late effort. Not
without hope, but needs to rediscover her best to feature strongly.
Always happy to share=Victoria and NSW =just ask=
gamblersnews@gmail.com
gamblersnews@gmail.com
Example
Sandown – Boxing Day (26 December)
Race 1 – Race Analysis
With the rail out 3 metres and Sandown expected to race in genuine A1 order, this sets up as a race
where rhythm and positioning matter. A true mile with likely even pressure should allow runners
with tactical speed to stay in touch, while those forced to concede ground early may struggle to
bridge the gap late.
Horse Rating Peak Rating Performance Edge Ceiling Edge
Zebra Finch 86 90 +3.5 +4.0
Helioson 84 88 +2.5 +4.5
Flying Done 82 85 +2.0 +3.0
Princing 81 84 +1.8 +2.8
Make Me A Star 80 83 +1.5 +2.5
Runner Comments
ZEBRA FINCH (1)
Has returned in solid order this preparation without everything going his way. The Ballarat run was
quietly strong given the lack of tempo and his pattern late. He has previously shown he can absorb
pressure and still finish off when allowed to build through his gears. The mile looks ideal now and
he maps to land closer. If the race is run honestly, he is well placed to produce his best effort. This
is a clear opportunity to convert consistency into a result.
HELIOSON (5)
Still early in his development but there have been encouraging signs in both runs this prep. His
work late suggests he is looking for a more expansive track and sustained tempo. Fitness-wise he
is trending the right way and should settle more comfortably here. If he can hold a midfield spot with
cover, his closing sectionals can be effective. Not the finished product, but the upside is evident. A
genuine improver in this grade.
FLYING DONE (4)
Put his maiden field away with authority last start and did it with something in reserve. The manner
of that win suggested confidence and clarity in his racing style. This is a step up, but his ability to
control speed is a valuable asset. He doesn’t need to lead outright to be effective and can stalk if
required. If allowed to dictate mid-race, he can stay in the contest for a long way. A solid benchmark
test of where he sits.
PRINCING (7)
Another who broke through decisively last time and did so without being fully extended. He has now
put together a consistent preparation and looks to have found his rhythm. The rise in grade asks a
question, but his profile suggests he can handle incremental pressure. He maps to be competitive
again and should not be underestimated. If the tempo steadies mid-race, he becomes more
Sandown – Boxing Day (26 December)
Race 1 – Race Analysis
With the rail out 3 metres and Sandown expected to race in genuine A1 order, this sets up as a race
where rhythm and positioning matter. A true mile with likely even pressure should allow runners
with tactical speed to stay in touch, while those forced to concede ground early may struggle to
bridge the gap late.
Horse Rating Peak Rating Performance Edge Ceiling Edge
Zebra Finch 86 90 +3.5 +4.0
Helioson 84 88 +2.5 +4.5
Flying Done 82 85 +2.0 +3.0
Princing 81 84 +1.8 +2.8
Make Me A Star 80 83 +1.5 +2.5
Runner Comments
ZEBRA FINCH (1)
Has returned in solid order this preparation without everything going his way. The Ballarat run was
quietly strong given the lack of tempo and his pattern late. He has previously shown he can absorb
pressure and still finish off when allowed to build through his gears. The mile looks ideal now and
he maps to land closer. If the race is run honestly, he is well placed to produce his best effort. This
is a clear opportunity to convert consistency into a result.
HELIOSON (5)
Still early in his development but there have been encouraging signs in both runs this prep. His
work late suggests he is looking for a more expansive track and sustained tempo. Fitness-wise he
is trending the right way and should settle more comfortably here. If he can hold a midfield spot with
cover, his closing sectionals can be effective. Not the finished product, but the upside is evident. A
genuine improver in this grade.
FLYING DONE (4)
Put his maiden field away with authority last start and did it with something in reserve. The manner
of that win suggested confidence and clarity in his racing style. This is a step up, but his ability to
control speed is a valuable asset. He doesn’t need to lead outright to be effective and can stalk if
required. If allowed to dictate mid-race, he can stay in the contest for a long way. A solid benchmark
test of where he sits.
PRINCING (7)
Another who broke through decisively last time and did so without being fully extended. He has now
put together a consistent preparation and looks to have found his rhythm. The rise in grade asks a
question, but his profile suggests he can handle incremental pressure. He maps to be competitive
again and should not be underestimated. If the tempo steadies mid-race, he becomes more
Looking at Boxing day= combined Sandown and Randwick results I see (posted on Punters graph).
14 on top selections posted for overall SR=29%
4 winners /3 x seconds /1 x third
Sydney had SR 33%
Melbourne SR 25%
Another pleasing result was theat Melbourne number 2 top selection had 3 x winners which means Ayeye "top 2" selections won 5 from the 8 races. (those email recipients can see-those 2nd top selections= Mercurial/Regal Zeus and Stage n Screen) =Not too shabby Smiley face.
gamblersnews@gmail.com
14 on top selections posted for overall SR=29%
4 winners /3 x seconds /1 x third
Sydney had SR 33%
Melbourne SR 25%
Another pleasing result was theat Melbourne number 2 top selection had 3 x winners which means Ayeye "top 2" selections won 5 from the 8 races. (those email recipients can see-those 2nd top selections= Mercurial/Regal Zeus and Stage n Screen) =Not too shabby Smiley face.
gamblersnews@gmail.com
Today we introduced a few more features (newsletter) the most exciting of which (but still work in progress) is our Price Threshold Map which basically reverts to one of our top rated and proposes price thresholds to consider. Once we get that right we can extend to other fancied runners. Whilst WIP (work in progress) our efforts and results have made us very optimistic as a tool for under your left elbow.
We also introduced likely race mapping and used data from past Cranbourne meetings to assist with likley betting market nuances for this track.
I am not sure to start a new thread to show same but will see how cut and paste works here:
" Race 1 – Race Analysis
The opening race on the Cranbourne card sets up as a genuine form and fitness contest rather than
one dictated by track pattern. With no clear advantage expected for leaders or swoopers, the emphasis shifts to runners capable of holding position early and maintaining pressure through the key mid-race phase. Those arriving at this race at the right stage of their preparation are likely to be rewarded. It profiles as a contest where sustained effort, rather than a short sprint home, will determine the finish."
Race 2
"Race 2 profiles as a contest where tempo and positioning are likely to play a decisive role. Several runners were disadvantaged by slow or unevenly run races last time and are better suited if this event is run at a more genuine clip. The ability to hold a spot within striking distance without expending excessive energy early will be crucial. Timing and late execution are expected to determine the outcome.
We also introduced likely race mapping and used data from past Cranbourne meetings to assist with likley betting market nuances for this track.
I am not sure to start a new thread to show same but will see how cut and paste works here:
" Race 1 – Race Analysis
The opening race on the Cranbourne card sets up as a genuine form and fitness contest rather than
one dictated by track pattern. With no clear advantage expected for leaders or swoopers, the emphasis shifts to runners capable of holding position early and maintaining pressure through the key mid-race phase. Those arriving at this race at the right stage of their preparation are likely to be rewarded. It profiles as a contest where sustained effort, rather than a short sprint home, will determine the finish."
Race 2
"Race 2 profiles as a contest where tempo and positioning are likely to play a decisive role. Several runners were disadvantaged by slow or unevenly run races last time and are better suited if this event is run at a more genuine clip. The ability to hold a spot within striking distance without expending excessive energy early will be crucial. Timing and late execution are expected to determine the outcome.
Ratings, Peak ratings , Performance ratings and Ceiling ratings
Amazingly on top rated=5 winners Saturday-but its the ratings that we consider valuable.
Free=
gamblersnews@gmail.com
we can talk about them.
Hoping to build a Professional gamblers group
Amazingly on top rated=5 winners Saturday-but its the ratings that we consider valuable.
Free=
gamblersnews@gmail.com
we can talk about them.
Hoping to build a Professional gamblers group
Dear Punters,
All ratings, regardless of where they come from, can be used in many different ways.
Some people use them mechanically against weights, simply deducting kilos to reach a final number. Others use them more casually, sometimes even in an “eenie-meenie” fashion. In many cases, Ayeye ratings are/can of course read only through the comments attached to them.
That is all valid.
The Ayeye approach is different.
Here, ratings are not treated as a tip or a final answer. They are treated as a structured, repeatable reference point. Their real power comes from using them to build a pricing market and then observing how the real betting market behaves around that price.
This turns ratings into a market analysis tool rather than a selection tool.
Time does not allow rating and pricing every horse in every race for this discussion. Perhaps that will come when Mikey has more time. In the meantime, I have calculated prices for Geelong and Randwick using only the ratings already disclosed in the newsletters sent yesterday.
This is not meant to be a finished product. It is an illustration.
It is designed to give an initial understanding of the mechanics and to provide a framework to think from today onward.
Frankly speaking, for our broader work we use a slightly more varied and refined approach, but for now I am happy to hang our hat on these figures for the purpose of demonstration and later review. They are strong enough to show how a ratings market can be built and how behaviour around that market can be read.
Attached are two complementary memos that explain this thinking in more depth. Together, they show one of the more professional ways to use ratings:
1. by compiling fair prices and then analysing the market through the lenses of
2. market alignment, market rejection, and market compression.
I have also attached prices calculated from these ratings.
The edge is not simply “do I like this price”.
It is found in how price behaves around the rating.
I hope you find this approach, at the very least, interesting, and for some of you, a useful upgrade in how you think about ratings and markets.
Best as always,
Henry
gamblersnews@gmail.com
All ratings, regardless of where they come from, can be used in many different ways.
Some people use them mechanically against weights, simply deducting kilos to reach a final number. Others use them more casually, sometimes even in an “eenie-meenie” fashion. In many cases, Ayeye ratings are/can of course read only through the comments attached to them.
That is all valid.
The Ayeye approach is different.
Here, ratings are not treated as a tip or a final answer. They are treated as a structured, repeatable reference point. Their real power comes from using them to build a pricing market and then observing how the real betting market behaves around that price.
This turns ratings into a market analysis tool rather than a selection tool.
Time does not allow rating and pricing every horse in every race for this discussion. Perhaps that will come when Mikey has more time. In the meantime, I have calculated prices for Geelong and Randwick using only the ratings already disclosed in the newsletters sent yesterday.
This is not meant to be a finished product. It is an illustration.
It is designed to give an initial understanding of the mechanics and to provide a framework to think from today onward.
Frankly speaking, for our broader work we use a slightly more varied and refined approach, but for now I am happy to hang our hat on these figures for the purpose of demonstration and later review. They are strong enough to show how a ratings market can be built and how behaviour around that market can be read.
Attached are two complementary memos that explain this thinking in more depth. Together, they show one of the more professional ways to use ratings:
1. by compiling fair prices and then analysing the market through the lenses of
2. market alignment, market rejection, and market compression.
I have also attached prices calculated from these ratings.
The edge is not simply “do I like this price”.
It is found in how price behaves around the rating.
I hope you find this approach, at the very least, interesting, and for some of you, a useful upgrade in how you think about ratings and markets.
Best as always,
Henry
gamblersnews@gmail.com
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