8% Commission!

see how long you can keep your eye only on the rope 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-g1NC5XFWgE

your roi after one race (or even one meeting) has nothing to do with making a (long term) profit

.. unless you really are a magician

Yes, but that is not the point.  Also, ROI after 1,000 races, has nothing to do with making a profit if your staking system is random.

yes any punter would be wise to have a sound staking system to compliment a sound selection method

ROI after 1,000 races,

I prefer to see 1000 races as being separate investments and therefore 1000 individual ROI"S

At the end of any given number of those races I would then simply add up and get the aggregate of the ROI for each race

I rationalize simply because I have not chosen to "invest" for 999 races (therefore 999 000 units) yet to be run   I have chosen to invest/risk an amount for each race as it occurs....

The only liability /risk I have been certain of is the one I have actually entered into....

Therefore :

race 1 ..ROI=x
race 2   ROI = y
etc

Mr Luca,

I will most likely never bet on a track with 8% commission.  Currently I bet on UK markets at 5% of commission and think I may have an edge at that level (on paper I do have a significant edge but find in practice everything works worse live for a range of reasons).  I use the word "may" because I have had things work for 3 months really well and then just head south rapidly - again for a range of reasons - some I understand and others are more mysterious.

Some things I have tracked go for months and months in steady winning patterns then lose all those winnings and more in a matter of week or two. Then some crawl back up to profit many months later, while others would clean you out if you stuck to them. In anything dealing in the "just profitable" category, the ups and downs through just randomness can be ridiculous and dramatic.

Try making up a hypothetical 1000 bet series that is "just profitable" after commission in xcel and then use a random number generator formulae in Xcel to sort the data over and over with a graph of the earnings patterns.  The result will shock you.  Over the 1000 series streaks of superb growth will spike up before you and plummeting losses will follow showing what are apparently winning back systems and fantastic lay systems if you judged on the short term patterns.  This is what fools many people - me included - the randomness creates patterns that are just mirages of profitability.  In the downturns of any such system high levels of commission act to slaughter you.

In the stock market they compete on lower brokerage fees.  A $10,000 trade will cost you $20.  That is 0.2% commission.  8% is absolutely outrageous in my opinion as a commission level.  Obviously BF have overheads way higher than an online brokerage, but even so 8% pushes the exchange into the realm where only the super elite of bettors or those with huge volumes to get a big discount have any hope of profit long term.  Average punters not only have no hope, they will be cleaned out so fast by 8 % commission that they will really notice how fast they are losing and either by analysis or gut instinct decide BF does not seem to work for them.

8% is jumping the shark.  It may not be obvious as to the impact of this on the exchange as commission is often poorly understood.  But all but the addicts can tell when something is not right and for whatever reason BF is not working for them.

All this is happening at the same time that BF markets have become ever more accurate.  Now is when commission should be lowered as the offering is no longer so beneficial to punters as in the early days.

To me the ideal exchange is one where most people with some knowledge are either making money or very close to it.  People on BF are usually a little more analytical than your average punter and actually expect to make money. The are not like a drunk person wandering into the Crown Casino for a flutter. The exchange should give them hope and good runs, not try to clean them out fast.

The house edge in Blackjack is 0.6% !!!!  BF is now 6 to 8%. That is 10 times what the Casinos offer to "entertain" their clients assuming accurate markets.  The new high levels are ridiculous and disrespectful to us.  They will kill the exchange slowly.

Zoot

Your reply is appreciated.

Yes Many approaches/strategies "work till they dont".. a phrase used by my wife over the decades.

I can assure you some days of mine are not without errors.....but these errors are often invaluable learning experiences.

In some ways this occurrence can keep some of us obsessed with getting it right. Bit like the "mad" scientist or inventor.

In feeding this obsession of mine it should be  knowledge on this forum that I have turned to creating equations factoring in the usual variables upon which I have predominately relied.

Equations and numbers are the purist form of truth and with that thought and my observance of recurring patterns I plod many days a week picking up small percentages ( anywhere between 12% to 5 %). Collectively these percentages satisfy me.

Recently I have returned my attention to the horse itself and am finding this equal to or even more comfort for me.

As you have "invested" many hours into research it is with respect, shame you have not found the "grail" upon which long term you feel comfortable to rely upon despite the objectionable commission.

Zoot..stay positive. The coke bottle is often half full rather than half empty.

Casino games are random events while certain occurrences in a horse race eg. an unfit horse....is not so random.

GL

Proof is in the pudding.  If HenryLuca is betting regularly over an extended period of time and winning using his mysterious ability to analyse fitness or whatever, he is onto something good.  Betting is too tough a taskmaster for luck to last long.  Different approaches have more chance than standard form analysis that everyone is doing. So tallyho and toodlepip to the HL chardonnay system may it continue to beat commission and the sceptics.

Your earlier post ZOOOT was excellent. Please contribute more!

fawning alert.

You never say to me Kami ffs

you're mutton. He's cruisin for fresh meat.

Also got nuttin much to say ffs

Fresh meat!! How long before you cxnts scare him away??? Henry's already got him worried!!

Time for me to say something interesting.................................................................... something interesting

Is that a Spike Milligan gag spy? You're showing your age!

spy did you ever hear anything about your old nemesis? I wonder what happened to him?

Which one

The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE 25 Jul 15 11:23 Joined: 09 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 4,449 | Blogger: The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE's blog
Is that a Spike Milligan gag spy? You're showing your age!


I'm burnt out, down n out & washed up ffs

I don't analyse ROI that much, sometimes as a check. 

Mostly I look at graphs of progress in my historical data or in whatever data I am analysing.  These paint a picture of what is really happening.  Is it a steady growth or decline?  Is it jumping all over the place with no patterns? Is there a trend?  Is the trend real or something short term that is really a mirage (of don't you really know either way)?  How does it handle commission shifts?  Could you imagine scaling it up with larger bets and psychologically handle the ups and downs with big stakes (some profitable strategies have quite horrific bad runs lasting months that would destroy your confidence in the system or ability to sleep at night!). 

Often true profits come from a tiny proportion of your bets.  The rest is churn where commission chews you up.  So here again, BF high commission discourages volume.  If you know a bit, you realise you have to avoid anything doubtful as b/e = death through commission leakage especially at high levels.  I assume lots more activity would be in BF's interest.  The higher commission is the more you have to really avoid bets that are marginal.

If Casino operators know that 0.5 to 3% keeps educated punters interested.  Keno at 20% is for the mugs.  Why then do they have BF at 8% which is in the zone of treating us like mugs to be fleeced as quick as possible?  It does not make business sense to attract or keep the BF clientele.

Hope DA has a tissue handy

I never knew there was any doubt as to what ROI or POT was until this thread. I learnt it as a 1st year apprentice 30 years ago.


SPOON why would ZOOOOOOOOT's post make me cry?

Cmon. You have one sock on and seem to be puffing,ffs.

You gotta admit the man has some nice gear!

Unfortunately, I am unable to asess his undercarriage

your head is in the way

GOLD!!!

see the first photo ....

https://twitter.com/GuessersShow/with_replies

Don't mind me, Zoot. I'm jus messin

Do continue

The Guessers Show. Who does that remind me of?

This ?

https://twitter.com/UneducatedFlog/with_replies

Bizottság túl magas

I'm Hungary

I'm impressed with Zoot. He's been very gentle with his timing....allowing enough for DA to RELOAD his scrotum

Sick Fxck.

Sorry.

I'll leave you two alone now

Henry will be back soon.

Mork calling Orson

Come-in Orson

You two have a lot in common. He's taking up equine perving too.

This town aint big enough for 3

and by the way Jim eats there's not enough food to go around either

I was worried for his fingers the other day

I echo Kami’s comment to continue contributions to the forum. As I mentioned earlier it is a great boutique forum and you seem to have an ability to articulate thoughts noting of course my other earlier comment that you seem to rely on broad brush stroke type comments and conclusions.

You are yet to face devil’s advocate number 1 Thebas.  Bjt will be a great point of reference for percentages and TINS and Kami will clip you if you cross the line. Do not despair as luv is often in the air.

Meanwhile I believe I have identified a burdensome weight you have placed upon yourself namely your comment “Betting is too tough a taskmaster”

Betting is like mobile phones----they are useful provided you control them and not let them control you. The perception that betting is a “tough taskmaster” is likely to be an insight into the sum of your experiences. Just a thought. Might be wrong.

Betting is should be more like a mistress you court , flirt with and benefit from if you can.

Curious that this perception extends beyond betting not just being a taskmaster but a tough one.

You also make reference to luck. That is all good but as a point of reference to something negative namely for luck to last long is a scenario you seem to imply you wait for. (Glass half empty perception)

Ok again keep contributions coming.

Importantly for now UK races start shortly…yippee!!

The previous post is of course directed to ZOOT and his earlier comments

Mistresses often break up marriages.

it's all smoke & mirrors and personal bravado imo


that's why they invented the mirror

we all know how each of us are doing ourselves

numbers & percentages thrown around here mean very little

zooot has identified a valid point with 8% commission for the mere mortals still residing amongst us here

the usa at 5% .. vic at 6% .. are the best places to invest at this point (and the UK for those who can cop their timeframe )

I think we all need to work out how to migrate to HL's parallel universe - seems to be a nice spot to sit quaffing chardonnay, being fed grapes and caviar whilst betting against old nags and donkeys masquerading as racehorses and where 8, 12% or whatever commission level is a mere trifle nipping away at the edges of the steam of profits.

I'm still peeling grapes (in my hi-vis gear) for AussieDriver and he's been most unfriendly of late.

Perhaps I should ask Henry if he needs a grape-peeling equine pervert assistant.

zooot has identified a valid point with 8% commission f

I still dont get it...

Whether Henry or Zoot or anyone pays $5.00 for winning $100.00 (if and when)for the privilege of using Betfair  or pays an extra $3.00 to $8.00 for winning $100.00 (again if and when) whats the big deal....

Yes ....nipping away at the edges of the steam of profits. but an extra  $3 for every $100.00 won it is cheaper than petrol or other expenses connected to life.

Man...anyone who wins $100 using betfair created opportunities and pays $8 instead of $5.00....and that increase of 3% (actually 2% increase  from a 6% base)  qualifies for moaning ....and suggestion that Henry lives in a parallel universe....because it aint moaning....

Yes Henry does live in a universe were the coke bottle is half full and not half empty...on all aspects of life

I think we all need to work out how to migrate to HL's parallel universe

TIP 1. ----Always look on the bright side...

TIP 2-----Apply Darwins theory of evolution which requires adaptation ....


it's all smoke & mirrors and personal bravado

Thebas...sounds like a broad assertion or sweeping innuendo with no particulars or basis behind the comment.....

Bravado is interpreted as  boasting....

I have no cause to boast .....about the fact that $2-3 dollars extra  paid to use a facility in circumstances where $100.00 is made....I might have thought it embarrassing which Zoot and Thebas dont seem to find to admit this extra is even relevant...

Thebas ...I would be curious for you to identify any instance of "bravado" on Henry's part other than an opinion that the increase of 2-3 % has any real impact worthy of moaning about....

mere mortals

A comment to create innuendo ....too ludicrous

Oh Well

henry you have mentioned on many an occasion that the price of a horse you lay ... means nothing to you 10/1 12/1 20/1

you have mentioned that if you think a horse is a lay then it therefore has ... zero chance ... of winning


so in that light I can understand you do not to see the relevance of 2-3% commission where others can

that sir ... I consider bravado

oh yeah .. and the coffee & cake

Henry.
This difference isn't a mere 3 dollars per 100 though, unless, you win EVERY bet.

If you don't win every bet than any increase to commission paid is exaggerated by your strike rate.

What percentage of people do you think pay the Premium Charge?  I would suggest not a lot.  The PC in its basic form, is if you don't generate 40% commission in relation to your profits, then you pay the PC to ensure you do.

I have no idea what percentage of people pay the PC, but if you consider those that are considered elite on BF actually pay 800% the actual commission rate to Betfair, then 3% quite quickly turns into 24%.  And that is for the very best.  For the rest, that figure is much higher.

Now to be in profit on Betfair, (forget about commission generated arguments and call it commission paid instead just for ease of use), means you pay less than 100% of your profits to Betfair in commission.

How many people actually profit from Betfair?  Less than 5%?  Less than 5% of users are paying less than 2000% of the commission rate based on their betting activities.  They are paying less than 20 times the base rate (old base rate) of what the actual figure is.

A jump from 5% to 8% for somebody breaking even before commission, actually represents being 60% worse off with the extra 3%.

Say 5% are profitable, and 1% are paying PC.  I think (from memory) that if you have a 10% advantage over the market, puts you in PC range, meaning 80% of profitable punters on Betfair have less than a 10% advantage.
The jump from 5% to 8% will actually eat up 25-30% of their profits.

Now going back to a 100% punter, before commission.

Let us say somebody bets enough and they have a net result of zero on Betfair, with 100,000 dollars in net wins.  Meaning of course, that they have won 100,000 and paid 100,000 in commission. 
At 5%.
At 8%, that means they will effectively be 100,000 wins, and paying 60,000 in commission.

How many people do you know that can afford that?

If you are paying PC, it really doesn't matter much as they pay the same rate regardless.  But for everybody else, don't underestimate exactly what it means.

At 8%, that means they will effectively be 100,000 wins, and paying 60,000 in commission.

****Paying 160,000 in commission.

BJT 26 Jul 15 08:43 Joined: 30 Oct 04 | Topic/replies: 21,919 | Blogger: BJT's blog
Henry.
This difference isn't a mere 3 dollars per 100 though, unless, you win EVERY bet.


BJT, I explained that to him on page 1, yet here he is on page 4 still saying the same thing.

Hard to believe someone who makes such basic mistakes is winning better than 10% on T/O, then again he does have his own branch of maths, he must have

You're wasting your time.

Henry

If you are very profitable - well over say 10% ROI, the shift from 5% to 8% would be annoying but you could live with it.  Perhaps you are in this category? Or perhaps you are laying long shots and have not had a bad run yet? (bad runs with long shots can be like an elevator trip downwards - you wake up one morning and 4 months profits can be gone). The trouble with laying longshots is that you have no idea whether you have a profitable strategy until you have done many thousands of bets. It can be months of chardonay and caviar and then WTF when a couple of 100 to 1 shots win in quick succession.

When I've watched a 500 to 1 shot win it is hard not to think of the 499 winning bets this may have wiped out for some poor soul.

ROI on longshots is almost impossible to measure until you have say 10,000 bets under your belt.So Henry would probably not be able to work out if high commission matters to him for a long time.  By then it may be too late.

I believe laying longshots can be profitable but it requires a huge act of faith in your approach cause your performance will tell you nothing of any meaning for a long time especially once you get over odds of 50.

Back to the 8% issue:

For a newbie assuming being totally breakeven before commssion, in a quick model I did for someone betting 5% of their bank, 8% commission would drain 25% of their bank over 100 bets just through commission alone.  This plus being carved up by the sharks (old hands)could well make their BF experience pretty unpleasant, especially now the bookies often have better odds.

Most successful punters are working on 1-3% profit after commission.  An increase of 1% cuts all, or at least, a third of their profit out.  Happy to lose half or all their profit - doubt it.  They will either shrink their betting to niche systems that are very high profit or go the bookies or lower commission markets.  All of which lose money for BF Australia.

The debate in this thread shows that many punters will not understand the significance immediately but eventually they will twig either through analysis or just sensing that they seem to be losing steadily and walk away.  Short term gain for BF but medium term pain.

Agree. Again!

Apart from the bit about betting 5% of your bank. That is insanely reckless!

5% made a better example to illustrate the impact.  Not what I recommend.  0.5% is better.

Agree.

I concur

Sounds painful?

It's a tribe of aborigines

Reported! I don't think you're allowed to say a********s anymore. You should've checked with Thebas before posting potentially divisive language.

Speaking of divisive how's Step Daddy going??

How would I know.

Check your Blurt. If there's a penis in there ask your Step Daddy how's he doing? Backing a winner lately?

Another day off pop in and what do I see?.......A bunch of blokes trying to argue logically with someone who claims to have been punting for 40 years, who only uses Betfair, who never loses, and yet doesn't pay Premium Charge.
Stop wasting your time boys, go explain the theory of relativity to a brick wall instead, it would be more productive.

And zooot. Depends as well on strategy. If possible to add more bets to a market you can counter the commission rise.

Is enough for me though to concentrate elsewhere. Dont really have time now to commit to Aus racing but when i get a bit of time i will be concentrating elsewhere.
When the asian exchanges take off for aus races much better options there.

Dear me....all this fuss about something that obviously doesn't affect any of you......if they start charging 8% on losing bets however!....

Post of the day JR

the abolition of card fees has saved me a fortune, thank you betfair

hide behind the couch jimmy!!!! nurse ratchett is back in the room.

Live_in_Hope 28 Jul 15 01:14 Joined: 02 Jan 09 | Topic/replies: 12,375 | Blogger: Live_in_Hope's blog
the abolition of card fees has saved me a fortune, thank you betfair


Was anything stopping you from using Poli to deposit?

not sure spy - I have no idea what poli is

When you click on deposit, just above where you enter your credit card details are the 5 ways you can make a deposit, Poli is one of the options ffs

Poli hasn't got a cracker ATM

Neither have I ffs

good luck Henry!! you have got none

4 mins to post time at Ipswich

the fave on BF is $2.60

less the unfavourable 8% for the sunshine state

= $2.47

current fixed price on the qld scab = $2.50

drifts to $3.10 in the last 60 secs

and runs stone motherless last after a dream run

your 8% remains undeducted 

I used to pay less than 3.5 from memory.
can't do any business anymore , so 8% is a prob.
because the 8% is a prob I do no business

the less business the more they have to charge,the more they charge the less business they do

email received

the ACT thoroughbreds will now be at 6% commission ... (down from the NSW model of 8%)  ... starting at their next meeting on Friday August 14th

take that V'Landy's

Now all Canberra has to do is race 5 times a week

Seven. With a race every five minutes.

NSW & Qld holding out   (and WA to some extent)

the change is on ... you can feel it

now .... if PVL had to resign ... welllllllll 

rude very rude as usual

c'mon pete .. do the right thing for all concerned at all levels within the racing industry & punters

RESIGN

I like the way this is going.

V'landys has succeeded in annoying everyone, so even former enemies seem to be uniting against him.

There are lots of incentives for punters to steer clear of the V'landys model.

And it's likely that RNSW will fall behind even more.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving gunslinger.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I like it when The Colonel drifts in with a plastic fork in his hand and an evil glint in his eye.

Spicy

In eleven secret ways

Random example of BF compared to fixed price tote   

Gold Coast
Horse: Fell From Heaven
a couple of minutes before off
Tatts fixed    3.3 odds - no commission = 3.3 effective odds
BF              3.4 odds - less 8% commission on winning = effective odds of 3.208

Tote fixed 2.87% better odds after commission

Gold Coast
Horse: Game pie
a couple of minutes before off
Tatts fixed    2.8 odds - no commission = 2.8 effective odds
BF              3.0 odds - less 8% commission on winning = effective odds of 2.84

BF fixed 1.4% better odds after commission

8% commission knocks BFs historical advantage rather a lot.

And ..... typically the better chance to win selection will have s smaller spread, so the actual advantage is even less than any apparent difference

Unless you are a 20 dollar punter, you can't get on with Tatts anyway.

Betfair averages today per race:

$300,302 Randwick
$367,285 Flemington

+22.3% despite having an extra race

Price sensitive punters that V'landys denies exist have kicked him where the sun don't shine.

I'm so wired I could spam. And just have.

Just set up something for Aus racing - had to specifically exclude 98 tracks with the 8% commissiom rate.

I've also re-indoctrinated my robot to avoid the V'landys rate.

aka the V8?

It's getting tougher here, so I reduce my scope.

But then I lose too many Bonus Points.

My earlier figures suggest liquidity is stronger on the 6% States, so it makes even more sense to focus on Bonus Whoring there.

Give up the drugs son.....

  zooot's blog
Just set up something for Aus racing - had to specifically exclude 98 tracks with the 8% commissiom rate.




- had to specifically exclude 98 tracks with the 8% commissiom rate.

Was just thinking how any collect is a good collect when I thought of poor old Zoot seemed to be thinking of ways to convince himself not to take a risk..

Part of the intelligentsia  not meant to be a gambler...

Hope he is good

Agree