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Lets Elope
05 Mar 15 17:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 May 06
| Topic/replies: 11,542 | Blogger: Lets Elope's blog
Kermadec wins with average luck, would have won the Hobartville in another 50 metres or maybe even a bit less against vastly superior opposition, the step up to the mile suits and has Nash to stand over him. Should be far too good for these, chances to Rommel and Petrology, Alpine Eagle impressed against weaker opposition but drops in distance and can't beat Kermadec for mine dropping back 200m in trip in the space of a week.
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Report henryluca March 7, 2015 5:08 AM GMT
Laying Leebaz.... Getaway driver will be need for this one (alien oldie but a goodie)
Report Yankee Uniform March 7, 2015 5:09 AM GMT
Thanks for the nice words Henry.

Keep coming back to Leebaz in the Canterbury stakes. Didnt do much in the spring but had problems from memory. First up form is OK and with the Hawkes polish, think it will go close.

Small win but going hard the place. Try and get back square with the card.

Good luck all.
Report Live_in_Hope March 7, 2015 5:09 AM GMT
Catkins is one of my favourites - so haing a go at her
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 5:10 AM GMT
Cancelled lay on Leebaz
Report Live_in_Hope March 7, 2015 5:12 AM GMT
nearly
Report Yankee Uniform March 7, 2015 5:12 AM GMT
Couldnt find that winner in a million years....even if it was 2/1 and in the market. Radar off today !
Report BJT March 7, 2015 5:12 AM GMT
Criterion big big run.
Report nugget March 7, 2015 5:13 AM GMT
waterhouse with the juice
i liked when one of her horses busted through the barriers and won easy
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 5:13 AM GMT
Cancelled lay on Leebaz ...drats...too much at stake ...even though saw pattern as bots..then flipped ...oh well

Black hole tinkering continues Love
Report Live_in_Hope March 7, 2015 5:14 AM GMT
Feel The Fame at echuca before a nap
Report Live_in_Hope March 7, 2015 5:18 AM GMT
btw if anyone around the Boort area needs their lawn cut give me a hullo
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:22 AM GMT
sounds like your dry reaching for a winner spoonhead..LAY...cosmic endeavour.
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:22 AM GMT
sounds like your dry reaching for a winner spoonhead..LAY...cosmic endeavour.
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:23 AM GMT
Tx, Mike

Back in the game x
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:27 AM GMT
10 13 2 7 for mine

Backed first three and threw fav in a box tri

Gl
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:36 AM GMT
Laugh filthy races
Report Monday mike March 7, 2015 5:37 AM GMT
Rubick.......bet of the day.  Catch me if you can.?
Report BJT March 7, 2015 5:37 AM GMT
Couldn't get a run in the straight.  No joy.  Finally got out, didn't do much.  Filthy races indeed.
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 5:48 AM GMT
Laid Knoydart
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 5:49 AM GMT
Black Hole ...says lay Rubrick Confused
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:52 AM GMT
Who's training Miracles now?
Report Keefter March 7, 2015 5:54 AM GMT
horribel commentary in the closing stages.
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 5:59 AM GMT
Tough here Sad

Sumthin on Nordic and Gen T

Gl
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 6:27 AM GMT
btw

son in law won a comp ..he is attempting a goal kick..kicking ball at half time at the titans game tonight for a prize...

I am driving daughter and grand daughter to stadium...for them to watch ...Happy
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 7, 2015 6:36 AM GMT
Lloyd horse is no oil painting but looks forward,,,,I can't back his horsesSad

They've got the better of me at the mo but I'm not diggin a hole in this dirty race

Sumthin on the top two

Gl
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 6:39 AM GMT
3. K's 1600m win was 1.37 +....walking pace almost for a class horse.

4. K's Hobartville (1400m) times look 6 lengths slower to those who ran in the CS Hayes (Hobatville time to CS Hayes time estimates)

IMO...throw your money into a hat..if it jumps back at you you win



Dedicate that "hat" saying to a high school friend who said it to me approximately somewhere between 35-40 years ago......

If your there "Mangles" you'll know I am smiling...LoveHappy
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 6:44 AM GMT
Cashing in chips ..  green after foolish early start by breaking rules

GL

In the meantime and as curiosity Carlo Bugatti has same Black hole formula as Madame Gangster but difference being not heavily backed fav...

If this losses then another important rule (and hopefully last ) to the blackhole formula,,
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 6:54 AM GMT
Black hole formula hopefully will be commercially viable by Wednesday after more trialling between now and then ....Love all positive for it today ex for  MG which I believe I have correctly tinkered

Which means a few things..one being I can post minutes before the race (unlike aliens which require focus in case of late flips)..and we can all share Love

Ok now to go feed the unicorns...

GL
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 8:28 AM GMT
Group 1 racing always deserves careful review and as I do it anyway thought it might be nice to share….whilst I luv doing it …it is very important as it can determine future decisions

Runners under 10.00’s

Windjina
4 runs before spell really did set this up for this race….4 runs in 30 days 28/9-25/10 and lovely build up in distance….freshened of course with a sizzling 1.22.4 (sizzling for this time of year)

Eagle
3 runs -35 days leaves it softer than if within 30 days but did have the miles with 1600/1800 as most 2 recent stars

Stratum
3 great runs before spell also set this up for this race all within a 30 day period and built up to a strong 1600 before the spell
2nd to Wandjina last start gave it big chance with thise 3 runs pre-spell

Kermadic
Pre-spell 1 run over 1600m in slow time …(contrast the conditioning of those mentioned above...should be imo at least 1.36 something )
This prep 1200/1400 last 2 starts with this start shows being set for something latter with this 1600m part of conditioning build up…

Have spruiked these exact concepts before for 1600m  and for my sake I like to re-affirm…

Just my opinion …
Report Lets Elope March 7, 2015 9:01 AM GMT
Give me a break Henry if you think Kermadec shouldn't have won easily you need glasses, hopelessly held up at a vital stage, a big long striding horse and Nash has it cluttered away between runners at Flemington!!! Unbelievable, not much doubt it should have won. Not one of Nash's best efforts that's for sure.
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 9:31 AM GMT
My opinion pre-race was it did not have the legs ...just an opinion ...

If anyone thinks it would have sprinted and won that too is an opinion....

I just luv form analysis for big races...and I luv form review.

All good ...


Give me a break Henry if you think Kermadec shouldn't have won easily you need glasses

Post race and knowing what I think I know (hello santa)

My Pre-race opinion has not changed post race (re-affirmed actually)

Again just an opinion

Many others thought it would win and many of those will think it should have won...again just opinions ...which by their nature are not right or wrong...

(For me it was an easy lay....made up greatly for my earlier mistake in the day...perhaps a lucky lay ...(.me dont thinketh) but will take the chocolates anyway

To be fair I havenet watched the replay so will do so in the morning...

IOM it was being preped for latter race (perhaps even next season --especially as this run made it 3 starts in 30 days with a nice build up in distance.

Again all good and nothing here was a knock on any others opinion ..just an expression of mine (made pre-race)
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 9:42 AM GMT
Actually just watched relay and noticed 2 things:

1. K had every chance ....if he could take it....

But more importantly

2. Brett Pebble ..one of our greatest jockeys riding overseas ....rode the winner as his only mount for the day ...

Really good form analysts would have picked that up and added many rating points or other tools of measurement to the winners chances  based solely on that fact.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 10:40 AM GMT
I noticed one of your rules Henry was never lay anything where the fav is 4.80 or higher. I wondered how you are so sure of the fav's price. The bookies have a variety of prices so which one is the one? On BF the prices fluctuate almost constantly. Something may go 4.8 to 4.9 to 5.0 back to 4.7 etc etc  4.80 seems like such an exact number.
Report BJT March 7, 2015 11:11 AM GMT
Easy enough to use WAP price....  ?
Report BJT March 7, 2015 11:12 AM GMT
Hmmm..  WAP*, of course the price term is redundant...  Blush
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 11:18 AM GMT
I can't even find that anymore! I suppose he must have a set time before the race and whatever is fav then is the fav.
Report BJT March 7, 2015 11:28 AM GMT
Dynamic Odds have it, or easy enough to call it in Gruss or whatever.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 11:36 AM GMT
WAP is still not necessarily the fav at starting time. Especially at 4.80 there may be more than one horse vying for favouritism. Mind you,this is Henry's problem not mine! The exact figure of 4.8 sparked my interest. If he'd said 4ish or 5ish I wouldn't have thought about it much.
Report leftrightout March 7, 2015 12:15 PM GMT
No luck in the run.  That will teach you for tipping one pre-race.  Welcome to the real world
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 12:22 PM GMT
What happened to Kermadec?
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 1:56 PM GMT
Watched a replay. At the end of the day,as they say,full credit to the winner. Wandjina. Was a good price imo considering it's last win.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 2:03 PM GMT
That's not fair Lefty. He DECLARED Beautide well before the race.
Report Lets Elope March 7, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
Nash admitted he completely stuffed up no doubt in my mind it wins, they went the far easier Group 1 in this instance, the Australian Guineas  is well known as stallion making race and was no doubt its target, another quite absurd statement by Henry the race has been tailor made for stallions since harking back to the great Zabeel himself.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 7, 2015 2:38 PM GMT
I don't think Nash's ride was bad at all. Would you rather he be 3 or 4 wide the trip? The winner did the work made his own luck and was too good.
Report Lets Elope March 7, 2015 3:08 PM GMT
Nash apparently put his  up straight away and said he stuffed up, he would have been three wide with cover moving into the race at the right time instead of Alpine Eagle being there and ready to strike rather than being reefed off heels at the 250m and becoming further unbalanced, they ran home in 33 and change and he's made up plenty of ground after not even being able to get into his stride until the 200m.

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/rawiller-kermadec-a-certainty-beaten/tabid/83/newsid/24320/default.aspx


Nash Rawiller viewed Kermadec as a “certainty beaten” in the Australian Guineas.



Rawiller said the luckless run of Kermadec, which ran out of room at a pivotal stage in the straight, was evident for everyone to see.



Kermadec, the $3.10 favorite, was forced to switch over heels to gain a clear run and then stormed home to finish fourth.



Douglas Whyte described as “terrific” the run of Guineas runner-up Alpine Eagle, which closed to within a half neck of Wandjina.



“He was getting home two to their one. He’s just six months away from being the proper horse he could be,” Whyte said.



“He’s just a bit immature, but he’s going to be the real deal.”



Damian Lane said Chivalry, which finished seventh, ran his usual honest race. “He tried his heart out, but that is where he’s at in this grade,” he said.



Dwayne Dunn said Tasmanian Admiral, which finished fifth, ran a “super race”.



“He will improve a lot from that experience. Hopefully, we will see him back in the spring,” Dunn said.



Nick Hall said he had concerns with the action of Petrology, which finished 12th.
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 9:25 PM GMT
Kami

I have [u]deemed[/u] a race where fav is 5. 0 as a wide open betting race which spreads chances (and concealed intentions –another story) which spreads lack of chances across the board. Historically they have not been good as a layer.

Of course as indicated prices fluctuate and  from time to time times horse price blows without being noticed (micro seconds etc)…so the 4.8 rule arises to give a margin of error (buffer) just in case it is one that eases to 5.00 and I miss it…….

IMO 5.0 the field races are too “open” even for win back bets as well as lay back bets …anyway I need a rule to avoid “open races” …so I have deemed a price that describes an “open” race and reduced by a margin to 4.8 to allow last second ease…
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 9:57 PM GMT
Perhaps Nash was riding to instructions to give him a soft run and not knock him around ...cause the run being 3 rd up from a spell and was stepping up 200 m .......so he snuggled him behind them ....and was just going to run on as training prep run  for easy and likely recovery.....

On times he was never going to get within coo ee of the winner anyway (if I could easily deduce that pre-race I would expect the stable brains knew that anyway) so why hurt the horse...save him...have him train and race through the steps of natural improvement to set for a future and more appropriate race .....

Remember  K  .with only 5 starts under its belt compared to the winner W's  11 starts ....

As stated so many times before this is a game of "inches" and comments like
"the step up to the mile suits " is just social media hype talk which just gets repeated without basis. 

IMO they dont just step up to a mile....there is or usually is preparation does causes the "step up" ..usually pre-spell runs etc etc....


As for relying on what any beaten jockey says well as I have seen here before I think the expression is pfft

the Australian Guineas  is well known as stallion making race and was no doubt its target, another quite absurd statement by Henry

Races are set to the calendar not to any horse fitness level... and at Group level trainers are confined to running horses as part of the preparation to the race available at the time.

I might strongly suggest K is being set for the Doncaster mile (in April) or maybe the Derby also in April (although I think they are on the same programe Confused)

1. I luv pre-race analysis and post race analysis hence my ramblings

2. Maybe there are newbies out there that discussions might inspire to think as a form analyst whose efforts come to an impartial conclusion rather than a tipster willing a horse to win.

I really believe that 3 years of study as a form analyst combined with betting technologies (eg betfair and other technology) will make a young person more money than 3 years of traditional academic study.....
Report BJT March 7, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
Think it is a bit disrespectful for Nash to be calling it a certainty beaten and I promise you he is still going to be getting paid his 5% for the race.  If he really believed he cost the owners a G1 and ready made stallion, the very least he would do is cough up his ride payment.  Not happening in a million years.

Yes, it was storming home, but it got the room.  There were plenty others in the straight that didn't and didn't get to the outside to get the room they needed, mine being one of them.  Travelling by far the best on the turn, and couldn't get a clear run.  Finally got through, but never got enough room.  Plenty others as well probably needed some more space, but it is a horse race, and space doesn't always happen, and if you know you need it, you find it by the 4-500 at the latest.

I certainly wouldn't call it a certainty beaten.  Was beaten by over 2 lengths.  Was a good eye catching run, but that was about it.

IMO anyway.
Report henryluca March 7, 2015 11:17 PM GMT
Think it is a bit disrespectful for Nash to be calling it a certainty beaten

Yes most definitely..disrespectful to the winner at the very least...

Just typical jockey media fodder anyway...who believes these stupid comments anyway...CrazyCrazy
Report Thebas March 7, 2015 11:42 PM GMT
tough race to dissect ... but 2 blokes put 'their's up' before the race (lets & henry) so well done guys ... that's racing

the race was yet another one of thoses that i fail to find a go in pre-start
(based on a long held idea that a trainer rarely knows the "full" horse they have until 7 career starts ... an arbitrary number yes but i've found it gives the trainer time & experience to run them from the front, run them from behind, run them with a sit, as well as try this gear and that - but arbitrary, yes)

to this extent then the horses (post race) where i felt the trainers would have a fuller understanding of their charges fell into the following

smerdon - fontein ruby 14 starts & an edward manifold & caulfield classic winner last prep - unplaced
weir - stratum star 13 starts & a 2 (listed) race winner last campaign

these 2 trainers couldn't improve their horses this campaign (yet) or they just ran into better quality (but i could assume they 'know' their horse already through prior race experience)

campbell - admiral star 12 starts & making the jump from a Tassie Guineas to the big time

hayes - petrology 11 starts - a sandown guineas winner
kavanagh - chivalry 11 starts - yet to win this grade but did win a mcneil sprint first up 1200 last time in
gai - wandjina 11 starts & placed in the caulfield guineas here last prep but also had a run in the time honoured COX PLATE great experience

(pete snowden might be wondering this morning about Shooting To Win running in sydney when it defeated wandjina at caulfield in the guineas last prep)

the race ... at the top of the straight (and from the 500m) kermadec had no running room at all when the real sprint began ... and where the flew home the last 6 in 33:29

kermadec had to wait until alpine eagle dashed 4-5 lengths past him (mceveoy's horse only had 5 race starts prior a terrific effort) then kermadec eventually got clear and sprinted to within 1½ lengths of alpine at the end ... a phenomenal effort and outside the winner was clearly the run of the race (from a future viewpoint)

so .. before it gets out of hand Wink ... both Lets & Henry were on the money pre-race imo ... so well to both you guys

the question to be asked about horse racing (and maybe what nash was indicating ... rather than bemoaning the loss yesterday)  wwas how did his old boss Gai get another soft run race to suit her charge (they ran the first 1000m in a ridiculously leisurely 1:01:85 ffs)

... what were the other jocks thinking and just how good are any of them at predicting pace suitability ?

... such is life (ned kelly) Wink
Report earlycrow March 8, 2015 12:45 AM GMT
Can't remember a worse ride from Nash, I'm told he's been riding poorly in HK by good judges. Could have got 3wide with cover at the 800 which he didn't so Whyte said thankyou very much and took the spot, 400 to 200 sectionals tell the sort from there after
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 3:16 AM GMT
Yep he's been riding poorly in HK and douglas whyte knew that and played him on a break, that's how Nash rides at times when he's down on confidence and he can be a real confidence rider) anyone who knows the horse and who knows the run it can sustain once it hits top gear it can really sprint but it doesn't just go from 1st or 2nd gear to top gear in a split second, give him alpine eagle's run and he wins comfortably which was the whole point of taking him to that race, a noted stallion making race on the big spacious expanses of Flemington. Connections must be pulling their hair out as that was that got away, to suggest that that they were looking for a soft run is ludicrous.
Please peddle your fitness craap somewhere else Henry,( this is my bread and butter judging whether horses like that would have won and there's  no doubt in my mind whatsoever that with the same uninterrupted run that Alpine Eagle had he not only wins but easily)he had the perfect prep, nice run over 1200m first up ripping run over 1400m against vastly superior opposition than what he met yesterday and peaking third up over the mile at Flemington, couldn't have had a better prep for that particular event.
Report henryluca March 8, 2015 3:38 AM GMT
Please peddle your fitness craap somewhere else Henry,( this is my bread and butter judging whether horses

Ouch!

Lets

Its just expressing opinions.....on the race....I have expressed no disrespect to your judgement or abilities...sorry if you have wrongly taken offence....and I certainly would not have made an unprovoked attack calling your views "craap"

The opinions of all should be welcomed on this forum ....whether it is

(i) their "bread and butter" as you say it is for you or
(ii) the casual observer
(ii) one time a year punter or
(iii) those like Henry (and their are many )  that simply share decades (call it 4 decades)of experience (sometimes right /sometimes wrong)

I am sure a thread with only Lets Elopes views or Henry's views or any singular others view would not be a very interesting thread....

Anyway all good ....perhaps a little "on tilt" on your part ..a feeling Henry knows too well...Happy
Report henryluca March 8, 2015 3:47 AM GMT
Lets:

Your use of the words "nice" and "ripping"

nice run over 1200m first up ripping run over 1400m

Gives me insight into your form analysis technique.....

I must remember to look for "nice" runs and "ripping" runs in my next Group race analysis....Whoops

End of topic....for me anyway
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 3:58 AM GMT
I am not having a go but seriously you're insulting mine and everyone else's intelligence by trying to say it wasn't fit enough or wasn't primed for the race or is chris  Waller suddenly a mug?
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 8, 2015 4:01 AM GMT
If he is it would explain how the struggling Snowdens are training the odd winner up there Laugh
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 4:04 AM GMT
It gives you no insight mate as they're descriptive terms, first up it did enough without being spectacular, second up was you're ready next start in the guineas as it wins the hobartville second up in another 50m against vastly superior opposition conservatively at least 4 lengths better quality horses. Although Alpine Eagle will be a better horse next prep.
Report henryluca March 8, 2015 4:05 AM GMT
I am not having a go

Fair enough..I like that...


you're insulting mine and everyone else's intelligence by trying to say it wasn't fit enough or wasn't primed for the race or is chris  Waller suddenly a mug?

Henry's opinion on horse fitness was not meant to be insulting anyone else's intelligence nor was Henry trying to say CW a mug....

Look forward to your future Group 1 calls as I too will look forward to future Group 1 thoughts ...(Come on APRIL!!!....Love)


GL and great W.A carnival views ..I recall them being early and accurate
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON March 8, 2015 4:14 AM GMT
Team Snowden wins the National Sprint

Crazy
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 4:27 AM GMT
Once Disposition wasn't in the race ( due to a poorly timed trackwork accident) it made kermadec all but a good thing in my opinion as disposition had huge improvement left in it fitness wise compared to wandjina who I've always liked a bit as a horse as some of its  runs have been huge but its been costly due to  c williams slaughtering it back in the spring and it's intractability at times. Also Kermadec was dropping, again in my opinion, considerably in class on its previous run and had it going for a very tidy result with a double into Liberty Rise at Ascot and having backing it (kermadec) at 4 bucks for a good result
Report BJT March 8, 2015 4:55 AM GMT
In all fairness, when Kermadec won the Carbine Club Stakes, he had the run of the race.  300m to go he was about 1.5l behind Stratum Star, who faced the breeze 3 wide the trip, and Kermadec was only just able beat it a head. 
Stratum Star was given an easier run this time out, and finished ahead of it, as you would expect given their other meeting.  Stratum Star, also finished about 1L behine Wandgina last start, and repeated that in the Guineas.  All direct form had them exactly where they should have been given their past races against each other.

All good to say he would have outsprinted them easily, but we have seen him try and outsprint Stratum Star already, and only just managed to grind passed, after having the run of the race, vs 3 wide.  Here are the comments on Punters form.
Stratum Star:  Wide no cover, in front at 400m, kept finding.
Kermadec: Had run of race, chased hard, took over final 50m.

Coming into that race, Kermadec was beaten in a BM73 by a horse whos form reads:
Muscovado:
G2 10th/12 8.85L
Listed 8th/11 4.25L
BM80 7th/9 4.9L

The horse that beat him, has had 3 starts since, and beaten a total of 7 horses home, and been a combined 18L worse than the winner, including a BM80 race.


Coulda shoulda woulda, didn't, and really ran to form.
Report Thebas March 8, 2015 5:05 AM GMT
no one has really made a bad point in all the Aus Guineas discussions .. just different points as i see it

in regards to the Carbine Club imo ... stratum had already had 9 race starts over 2 preparations and was well seasoned against Kermadec who was having only its 3rd race start in the Carbine ... there are no guarantees of course but kermadec looked to have more improvement as it progressed from one campaign to another and the benefit of 6 more race experience starts

doesn't always work out .. but lining up young horses one against another during their 2 & early 3yo careers might not always hold out as they mature

good discussion this one though
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 5:46 AM GMT
I'm sure with time Lets will get over it. There's about 200 races a week to take his mind off it.
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 6:57 AM GMT
No interest in the other 200 races I bet on relatively few races every week, I can cop it if you're not good enough and ae given evry opportunity but I can't stand it when the greedy little shiits (aka glorified street sweepers)fark up the nearly impossible to faark up.

In the carbine club Keramdec was having its last start of its very first race prep (having been in full racing nick for slightly over 3months as it trialled back on 2/9/2014 and the carbine club was run on the first of November)and was ridden upside down, was probably a bit over the top, travelled down to Melbourne and went the opposite direction for the time in a race and still won, which again indicated it's class.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 7:03 AM GMT
Come on Lets. It's time to put it behind you. There's always another day.
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 7:18 AM GMT
Not worried about it I am just trying to enlighten some as why I have the high opinion of the horse that I do and you know as well I do that the greedy little glorified street sweepers are the first to put their hand out when they win a race, why should they get any extra for actually doing their job properly. I'll give Nash some credit though at least he was prepared to put his hand up immediately and admit that he faarked up and not blame the horse or the trainer for it getting beaten as not too many of them are prepared to do that.
Report leftrightout March 8, 2015 7:20 AM GMT
I think you are a little worried about it....
Report eight ball March 8, 2015 7:30 AM GMT
Let's
You created the thread
Kerma was unlucky as happens in many races each day.
3 points
Like it or lump it everyone ME included are Quasi experts so swallow ya pride and drop the ego.
A certain hoop(whom you will guess)has a chip on shoulder the size of Ayers rock,rephrase that, don't dictate to me otherwise earn the wrath.
This hoop has been responsible for several incidents which i suggest were self-interest induced only to have others suffer more importantly due to not wanting to leave the fence unless forced to go around'em I suggest a few winners have gone missing.
Yesterday written across the back of helmet were the words I ain't moving.

Winners racing style(wandjina)was at the mercy of all others yet no one got past,fact.

Lastly
As regards jocks suggested tactical thoughts re HK best you leave it alone as it's a bit like you buying a Ouija board when you know fcuk all about witchcraft.

I won't go any further and had no intention of posting but sometimes you have 8 plans of analysis(yawnnnn)post ad nauseum.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 9:07 AM GMT
'Glorified street sweepers' I think is an awful thing to say. Being a top jockey takes talent and skill just like any other sport. Also they put their life on the line every time they get in the saddle. You lost a bet Lets, big fckking deal. Suck it up princess.
Report Joel March 8, 2015 9:19 AM GMT
Not many street sweepers get injured on the job or have an ambulance chasing them around.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 9:30 AM GMT
8ball makes a good point. There are hard luck stories in most races. The best horse doesn't always win. That's why there are odds about a horse's chances. If there were no obstacles or intangibles then every fav would be 1.20 or less and win constantly.

I think I preferred Lets when he told us about his bets in hindsight rather than hearing him moaning about a losing bet for two days. Who gives a fckk? Everyone backs losers all the time.
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 9:51 AM GMT
That's a direct quote from a mate who's a former jockey, I have had plenty to do with jockeys over the years and get along well with a number of them but fair dinkum you wouldn't trust some of them as far as you could throw them as they would be happy to sell their own mother down the river for a quid and don't worry a lot of trainers aren't much better either.

Kamikaze don't ever confuse a jockey with an elite athlete as there is no comparison, Oliver is far from being an elite athlete, however he is a natural gifted horseman.

The overwhelming majority of the larcenous midgets aren't all that clever.

Also I am not whinging just pointing out how absurd some of the statements have been about the horses preparation going into the race.

Anyway at ascot next Saturday there's a bigger certainty going around than Kermadec should have been and I will get it back plus some as it should easily be black odds again but I am entitled to be a bit dirty when Nash has basically cost me a 5k result if you don't like me blowing off a bit of steam that's too bloody bad and no one says you have to read it.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 9:55 AM GMT
FFS!
Report Joel March 8, 2015 9:56 AM GMT
I cant wait til Sunday to find out what it is.
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE March 8, 2015 10:28 AM GMT
I've never seen anyone like him. Blissfully unaware.
Report Lets Elope March 8, 2015 2:34 PM GMT
Not unaware I just couldn't care less what some on here think, especially after the I told you so craap from some on here.
Report BJT March 9, 2015 4:32 AM GMT
Everybody is entitled to their opinion, just as you are.  I don't feel my opinion was wrong, and you don't feel yours was wrong.

I mean, in your opinion, Kermadec first prep was 3 months because it trialled on 2nd September and last race was on the 1st of November.  That is your opinion.  My opinion, is that is not even 2 months.Wink  Sometimes, opinions differ.  But you were the one that got aggressive and insulting about it, nobody else.

My opinion is also that his spell after that supremely tiring prep, was not enough time to do anything really, as he was back at the races around 2 months later, obviously most of that time still in training.  I don't know a whole lot about training horses, but I do know that mine had done around 5 weeks of pre training before full training where he was about 6 weeks away from the races.  So after a spell, mine at least, takes around 11 weeks to train up ready for the races, so the fact that Kermadec had his last start in his first prep, and was trialling less than 11 weeks later, suggests to me that he didn't have a whole lot of rest time to recover and fill out, as he must have been at least tinkering his fitness along with such a short spell.

You say if Kermadec got the run Alpine Eagle got, he wins easily.  I suggest that if Admiral got that run, he probably did the same and wins easily, although the winner did get it too easy in front, so most likely, wins regardless.  It is a nice horse, that runs further than the trip, so was unlikely to be stopping too quickly given the run.
Your horse needed more room.  But don't make out it was the only horse in the race that wasn't allowed to run 100%, and even if it was, there is still a few people that don't share your opinion that it was a certainty beaten.
Given the chance to run the race again, with a guarantee that all horses would get the room required, my opinion would not budge.  Wouldn't touch it at the odds, and would be all over mine.  That is the beauty about horse racing, because if everybody shared your opinion, you wouldn't get the odds to make it work for you, because nobody would back anything else, and nobody would be laying you the odds.
Doesn't make anybody stupid, or in need of glasses, and if somebody judges a horses chances differently than you do, that also doesn't make them stupid.  Near impossible to imagine anybody on here doing exactly the same thing as anybody else, yet a lot make money.

I have no idea WTF henry does.  He told me look at the graphs axes, and look for Santa Claus.  All I got was that feeling all over again, of a childhood of disappointment waiting for Santa to appear, and the reminder of many hours of staring into 3d images looking for the flower.  There is no fcuking flower.  Maybe he sees the flower, and if so, I guarantee you, he is in no extra help in the eyesight department.

More races coming up, and I guarantee you, many people won't share your opinion again.  But please share them, healthy discussions are good for everybody.  Sometimes all you need is to hear another viewpoint and your mind goes off on another tangent, with new ideas to implement.

All good.  Relax.
Report Lets Elope March 9, 2015 6:28 AM GMT
bjt wasnt referring to you, just the usual suspects and I seriously wouldn't expect anything else form some of them.
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 7:34 AM GMT
I think there is a big ouch in there somewhere....

I have no idea WTF henry does.  He told me look at the graphs axes, and look for Santa Claus.  All I got was that feeling all over again, of a childhood of disappointment waiting for Santa to appear, and the reminder of many hours of staring into 3d images looking for the flower.  There is no fcuking flower.  Maybe he sees the flower, and if so, I guarantee you, he is in no extra help in the eyesight department.

1. look at the graphs axes,-I might suggest that the b/f graphs are studied by millions and repeated in betangel and probably other apps...

2. Looking for Santa Claus is ...again used by many ) to describe when you look hard enough and want to see a shape it will materialize for you.....hence why any reference to "childhood disappointment" sounds like a veiled and disguised put down.

3."Looking for flowers" dont know where that come from... flowers not in my repertoire of words

4. "he (Henry) is in no extra help in the eyesight department". --another veiled and disguised put down

BJT's comments combined with Lets's veiled references to Henry peddling craap ....this thread is turning into put down Henry ....Confused

Strangely Henry  put up   thoughts pre-race and with reasons based on times and distances ....

BJT puts up explanations (sensible ones at that) after the race ....yet Henry is the one according to BJT as "looking for flowers"


Like I said there does appear to be a few unfair (imo) ouches ! against Henry (and imo unfair ones).

Inference is that there is negative interest in Henry's pre-race views (which I might suggest over the Spring carnival was spooky in their accuracy) and Henry's post race views.....("Maybe he sees the flower, and if so, I guarantee you, he is in no extra help in the eyesight department.")

Oh well ..sure there is always something freudian in putting others down...so I will accept the negative comments as veiled and disguised compliments Happy
Report Lets Elope March 9, 2015 8:25 AM GMT
not having a go just think some of your theoriesare bizarrely left field and if you cant train a horse of kermadec's class to be close to the mark third up over a mile after two lead ups runs over 1200m and then 1400m , then you shouldn't hold a trainers licence.
Report BJT March 9, 2015 9:05 AM GMT

Mar 9, 2015 -- 8:34AM, henryluca wrote:


I think there is a big ouch in there somewhere....I have no idea WTF henry does.  He told me look at the graphs axes, and look for Santa Claus.  All I got was that feeling all over again, of a childhood of disappointment waiting for Santa to appear, and the reminder of many hours of staring into 3d images looking for the flower.  There is no fcuking flower.  Maybe he sees the flower, and if so, I guarantee you, he is in no extra help in the eyesight department.1. look at the graphs axes,-I might suggest that the b/f graphs are studied by millions and repeated in betangel and probably other apps...2. Looking for Santa Claus is ...again used by many ) to describe when you look hard enough and want to see a shape it will materialize for you.....hence why any reference to "childhood disappointment" sounds like a veiled and disguised put down.3."Looking for flowers" dont know where that come from... flowers not in my repertoire of words4. "he (Henry) is in no extra help in the eyesight department". --another veiled and disguised put downBJT's comments combined with Lets's veiled references to Henry peddling craap ....this thread is turning into put down Henry ....Strangely Henry  put up   thoughts pre-race and with reasons based on times and distances ....BJT puts up explanations (sensible ones at that) after the race ....yet Henry is the one according to BJT as "looking for flowers"Like I said there does appear to be a few unfair (imo) ouches ! against Henry (and imo unfair ones).Inference is that there is negative interest in Henry's pre-race views (which I might suggest over the Spring carnival was spooky in their accuracy) and Henry's post race views.....("Maybe he sees the flower, and if so, I guarantee you, he is in no extra help in the eyesight department.")Oh well ..sure there is always something freudian in putting others down...so I will accept the negative comments as veiled and disguised compliments


Not at all.  Guess my sense of humour needs smileys to come off on a forum.  Was my attempt at saying that everybody does things differently, and your method, at least one that you talk about, involves the axes of the BF graphs, and I merely can't see by looking at it what you do.  The addition of Santa Claus and disappointment, was just me being silly, and the 3d images, designed for everybody to see, I couldn't see them either so no hope in finding something I don't know how to look for.

Certainly wasn't meant to be offensive, or negative at all.  Was more having a go at me than anything to add a little light to my post.

Would these help?  BlushCoolLaughLaughSillyLove

Report BJT March 9, 2015 9:15 AM GMT
4. "he (Henry) is in no extra help in the eyesight department". --another veiled and disguised put down

Umm.  No.  Lets referred early in the thread that you needed glasses.   Lets Elope • March 7, 2015 9:01 AM GMT
Give me a break Henry if you think Kermadec shouldn't have won easily you need glasses, hopelessly held up at a vital stage, a big long striding horse and Nash has it cluttered away between runners at Flemington!!! Unbelievable, not much doubt it should have won. Not one of Nash's best efforts that's for sure.

Somehow by me using that, I am turning things negative by disagreeing with him.
Was going to say doesn't need glasses, but on the off chance that you actually wear glasses, I referred to any extra help, as there is no point me saying you don't need glasses because you can see patterns in the graphs, if you actually wear glasses.  Comprende?

Not entirely sure how you take anything I said as having a go at you so maybe I just leave it alone.
Report Lets Elope March 9, 2015 9:31 AM GMT
for fark sake when did someone inferring you're as blind as a bat if you cant see a horse should have won become an insult, give me a break
Report eight ball March 9, 2015 10:23 AM GMT
Everyone is appearing to be civilized. . well fcuk that. !

Let's,in real life your probably an ok dude but on here well....
Henry gave an opinion spelt O.P.I.N.I.O.N and you decided to give him the short stick,then tried to validate by adding in other craap(as spelt by you C.R.A.A.P)
Your bread and butter??well fcuks me,you must be eating stale bread with dripping as butter.
-Kermadec WAS 3 wide w/cover.
-Alpine had almost the same prep as Kermadec did when it won the Carbine.
-Kerma is a get back horse same as Alpine,which Spells I may need LUCK !
-Kerma got held up by you know who.Fact.(of which i mentioned)
-Nash said a certainty beaten,as would any hoop in the same situation.
-Nash riding poorly in HK ??? 1st season newbies struggle at the best of times(a few are exceptional)why shyte Baster & Co could only manage 3 or something!!.Nash sit's on 13 great effort,he still has his weak traited arm action,as compared to pushing a camels head to get the most out of them(as is required in HK,incorporated by the toughest of any hoops,the South Africans)but he will improve or will be winless.

Kerma was a saturday Black Booker and almost got you your 5K,yep that sucks just missing out but as pointed out your opinion may not be shared by others,(notable player got plenty out of Wandjina by figuring that those capable of been On/Pce would surely get heart fibrillations 400 out)just go to the political forums and neither side will give an inch(untenably boooring)

If you really want proof(if that's possible)I could organize the HK guys to do a factual post race assessment with their gee-whiz programming that will spit out real distance travelled(RL/3w/4w/5w) distances,number of strides per 100 metres,every other friggin thing that they use,including weight lost by mount yrd crapping except horses body weight,which is still an area OZ racing lacks.Having taken in all those and the usual other 22 odd headings for assessment,including tgtened,held up etc. . they may come back with Kermadec been lucky ??.

Let's your correct we don't have to read but we might read yours on the way to reading someone else's post.
I do enjoy your myriad of all and I look forward to you voicing AFL should haves.

But please look up the word Quasi. .and the new addendum will read..also applies to ALL players using BF.or if still not convinced ask some of the guns but try not to look stunned when they reply..forum????
Report Lets Elope March 9, 2015 11:00 AM GMT
the only reason its spelt that wya mate is to avoid the craap censorship of betfair
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 8:04 PM GMT
BHF- Lay the draw in the Manchester v arsenal game (16") (3.5)

Just sharing the progress of the development of the BHF (got me up at this early hour...yawn)



All Good to everyone Love
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 8:22 PM GMT
Here's where the discipline of a trader must come in ....arsenal scores first then 10 or so min latter (no time kept),,man utd equalizers.....in that space small 5-7 % green up margin...Personally would trade out at 15-20% so would still be in there (note there is no financial interest....broke too many eggs in the past re sports ...hope BHF is it!!)
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 8:30 PM GMT
Curiously an experienced trader wanting to lay the draw would wait to a pre-determined point cause as we all know with soccer draw prices diminish as game is played.....up to that first goal draw from $3.5 to $3.20 (actually just 1.5 %) so  now at 2.82 (throws up 35% ish ) so there is approx 7 % greater advantage (know your checking BJT which I like having you over my shoulder with numbers on these things Happy)
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 8:37 PM GMT
Half time The Draw 2.6 Ars 3.7 Man 2.8

(sorry if messing with thread...didnt think I would post so much)

So one last comment ..BHF now takes draw out of lay category ...(so an experienced trader would trade out with a loss of 10% ish (3.5-2.6)

Now be interesting to see final result or might post any BHF changes ..(against sorry re messing this thread),,,its not about the soccer...its about trading with BHF
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 8:43 PM GMT
One note I mad from week end was that 2 outcome games (nrl/basketball) ..trading gaes while 3 or more (which includes soccer -draw included)...are bets for final outcome..so again in theory would prefer to leave the bet(lay) in the table....this outcome helps affirm that aspect to my thoughts
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 9:16 PM GMT
Arsenal scores ...shares in BHF just went up (for the moment at least)

At time of this writing (70')
Report henryluca March 9, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
Man Utd 1  Arsenal 2


BHF- Lay the draw in the Manchester v Arsenal game (16") (3.5)

Just sharing the progress of the development of the BHF (got me up at this early hour...yawn)


BHF -- Black Hole Form-u-lay (Formula)

One step closer to setting up a sports and horse trading office (again sorry re messing up thread) (and yes I will need mathematicians and others with other  areas of expertise)
Report BJT March 10, 2015 2:38 AM GMT
What is the pay going to be like?  Blush  Give me access to a programmer, and I am sure we could come up with crazy siht...  lol
Report henryluca March 10, 2015 3:09 AM GMT
I am not kidding....this type of set up (whilst at first would be mickey mouse (liability < $5k.....no Henry no were near that point but just sayin) would build to betting syndicates of worthwhile level...) just need to get almost perfect...rigid set of rules ...(you know story Im sure)...

Just have to make sure results just not fluked and merely tilting at windmills (Don Q) . Know you comfortable after data of many x 100...Henry will be satisfied with data of just many (This is BHF not aliens)

Will trial randomly today (day off Tues usually)

Ok all good Love

PS you read my mind
Report nugget March 11, 2015 4:06 AM GMT

Mar 7, 2015 -- 6:27AM, henryluca wrote:


btwson in law won a comp ..he is attempting a goal kick..kicking ball at half time at the titans game tonight for a prize...I am driving daughter and grand daughter to stadium...for them to watch ...


how did the in-law go?
I'm actually surprised the titans can afford to be giving away prizes
I'm guessing he missed..

Report henryluca March 11, 2015 4:13 AM GMT
Choked...

Practiced all week end etc....had to do walk of shame in front of 18 k crowd....
Report nugget March 11, 2015 4:23 AM GMT
the prize was a greg bird jersey probably
Report henryluca March 11, 2015 4:34 AM GMT
No ,,,but still pissy...maybe not ...tickets (although he is member) and gursey (but he has already won one...

funny he was playing golf (Friday Confused)....hits ball off course and almost hits greg bird...on golf course....(true!!)
Report nugget March 11, 2015 4:40 AM GMT
not surprised
Report henryluca March 11, 2015 5:44 AM GMT
Randwick;;;;

Biggest market easer seen for ages and wins:
   
Ballet Suite
Kerrin Mcevoy

3.5 out to 7.10 on betfair
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