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11 Jan 15 05:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 4,661 | Blogger: Back High Lay Low's blog
May be old news but i didn't know this, licensed bookmakers outside NT receive a minimum 50% commission discount on their betfair accounts.

http://bookmakers.betfair.com.au/
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Report wombleoz January 12, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
would help with liquidity so maybe not a bad thing?
Report logroller January 14, 2015 4:40 AM GMT
my understanding is all aussie bookies are on 2.5% comm rate
Report BJT January 14, 2015 4:48 AM GMT
Do they pay the PC? 

And any bookmaker worth anything at all would easily get a 50% discount inside 2 weeks anyway through normal betting activity.
Report nickw January 14, 2015 5:55 AM GMT
Subject to all charges i think BJT

Discount applies to commission
Report BJT January 14, 2015 6:19 AM GMT
Ok.  So while looking good on paper, any knowledge of how the commission rate works, means any decent turnover gets you there anyway.  Forgotten most of what I know about it, but think at any decent commission rate you are looking at about 1 point per 5 dollars.

80,000 points accrued puts you on 50%, or 400k.  So if you turnover 400k in week 1 with them, then you are on that rate anyway.  Any decent bankroll and willing bookmakers you can easily arb your way to a deduction rate like that over a few weeks, and they have people lining up to bet with them.

Could easily run a book on course twice a week and get to that level at the very minimum.

Licensed arbitrage trading.  Ticket to print money.  IMO
Report Punching Watsons January 14, 2015 10:24 AM GMT
Do they get it only on meetings they actually field or on all meetings once the account is a registered bookmakers, seems a bit of work to go to to adjust for the specific meetings.
Report nickw January 14, 2015 10:45 AM GMT
On your account Punching

BJT

Not sure its that easy but iam sure you would know
Report BJT January 14, 2015 11:52 AM GMT
Well on 1 point per 5 bucks you are looking at:

80,000 BF points -15% per week being 12,000.  12,000 points represents $60,000 turnover per week to eventually get up to 50% deduction.

As I said, you need willing bookmakers, which we don't have any more, arbing is pretty much a thing of the past.

Bookmakers though, if you don't have a ledger showing 30,000 at least on each side then you are either not taking bets, or doing 1 meeting a week.  Can't be much competition in the ring, surely.


Although last time I went to Brisbane, I thought I would do the right thing and support the bookies.  Saw this thing I liked was 26.00 on the books.  I said if you give me 50/1, I will take 100 thanks.  He laughed and said no way, nobody over 26 in the ring.  I said, yeah but it is 150 on Betfair right now, you are taking the piss.  Wasn't interested.


140+% markets, and knocking back bets like that?  Can't tell me you couldn't offer 120% markets, and throw it all back on BF and make a killing. 
Easily make 5 figures arbing if given the opportunity, fighting for an opportunity to bet, maybe 6-10 on a good day, needing a winner to make money, getting maybe 10% on a good one, where bookmakers get 20%, and people lining up all day to bet with them.

60,000 a week?  Please.
Report Punching Watsons January 14, 2015 12:25 PM GMT
the licensing board will be run off their feet with new people looking to cash in on this idea
Report nickw January 14, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
Whats about the markets where theres no liquity 20 mins out when you put your market

I suppose i could say i cant put a market up yet iam wanting for the $$$ to kick in on betfair...

everybody on track is looking at betfair ... punter and bookie
Report BJT January 14, 2015 3:46 PM GMT
lol.  So why are people lined up betting into such ridiculous markets?  Confused
Report logroller January 15, 2015 12:39 AM GMT
pretty sure there are many accounts at BF that are on 2.5% and r not subject to PC
Report logroller January 15, 2015 12:42 AM GMT
BJT

Can't tell me you couldn't offer 120% markets, and throw it all back on BF and make a killing. 
Easily make 5 figures arbing if given the opportunity, fighting for an opportunity to bet, maybe 6-10 on a good day, needing a winner to make money, getting maybe 10% on a good one, where bookmakers get 20%, and people lining up all day to bet with them.


mahaha, your dreamin mate
Report BJT January 15, 2015 12:50 AM GMT
Love how people are happy to try and prove you wrong by saying absolutely nothing of value.

What exactly are you disagreeing with, and for what reason?


As for the 2.5% not paying PC, I am not sure that was ever bought up or disputed?  The question was simply are their accounts subject to the same PC charges...

But great input, keep it up.  Gold star sticker imminent.  IMO  Love
Report BJT January 15, 2015 12:53 AM GMT
Lesson of the day.  The three terms "Block User", "Quote", and "Report" are clickable links.  The "Quote" link, will quote the post you wish to quote, and format it in a way that doesn't require finding which part is actually said by which person.  Is amazing the technological capabilities available to us today......


Tune in tomorrow for the next lesson; How to use the "Block User" link.........

More stickers await.
Report logroller January 15, 2015 1:09 AM GMT
well BJT, consider this then............................95% of bookmaker turnover in controlled by 4 bookies, none of those bookies sits on BF to create a arb or profit in market flucs. it just doesn't happen. so then only the track bookies are the ones glued to betfair to pick up pennies in market discrepancy. so at Sale gallops today I would guess there is about 5 bookies on track, who would hold about 50k between them if that. the figures u suggest just don't add up or make any sense. a single bookie could go to 6 meetings a week on track barring city meets and not even hold 60k let alone leave the tracks with that kind of profit
Report logroller January 15, 2015 1:13 AM GMT
BJT   






  15 Jan 15 00:53 
Joined:   30 Oct 04      | Topic/replies: 19,840  | Blogger: BJT's blog   



Lesson of the day.  The three terms "Block User", "Quote", and "Report" are clickable links.  The "Quote" link, will quote the post you wish to quote, and format it in a way that doesn't require finding which part is actually said by which person.  Is amazing the technological capabilities available to us today......


Tune in tomorrow for the next lesson; How to use the "Block User" link.........

More stickers await.



WTF does that mean? are u drunk
Report logroller January 15, 2015 1:27 AM GMT
oh u r such a sook BJT..................u make ludicrous statements with only the thoughts in your head as proof, and then when some one broadsides you - block user
Report nickw January 15, 2015 2:09 AM GMT
Dont really think you understand the subject

if it was so easy

why arnt there people lining up to get a license and cash in on this easy money...
Report BJT January 15, 2015 2:58 AM GMT

Jan 15, 2015 -- 1:09AM, logroller wrote:


well BJT, consider this then............................95% of bookmaker turnover in controlled by 4 bookies, none of those bookies sits on BF to create a arb or profit in market flucs. it just doesn't happen. so then only the track bookies are the ones glued to betfair to pick up pennies in market discrepancy. so at Sale gallops today I would guess there is about 5 bookies on track, who would hold about 50k between them if that. the figures u suggest just don't add up or make any sense. a single bookie could go to 6 meetings a week on track barring city meets and not even hold 60k let alone leave the tracks with that kind of profit


Dumbing it down, just for you.


1.  You will notice, that the above, quoted piece, is everything you said in your post, separated from the main body to make it easy to see what you are quoting, and what you are writing.  As pointed out in the lesson.

2.  What I said, was that to have a 50% reduction in commision on Betfair, you would have to have a ledger of about 60,000 dollars per week.  I believe I actually said at least 30,000 on each side of the ledger, ie 30,000 in losses, and 30,000 in profits.  A total of 60,000 dollars.  Right?  Keeping up so far.  You will notice (if you read or can comprehend) that this doesn't specify any profit, merely bets held and placed on Betfair.

Following on from that, your point that an on track Bookmaker doing 6 meetings per week, not including city meetings, would hold around 60,000 dollars.  Just enough to have laid off on Betfair to get to the 50% reduction.  No?  I never suggested a weekly profit, other than to say an arber sitting at home with willing bookmakers, can easily make 5 figures per year.

I will admit, I made a mistake.  What I actually meant was SIX figures a year, being 100,000 dollars +.  For you to dispute that an arber could even make 10,000 dollars in a year is just ridiculous and you really have no right to even respond with such a ridiculously limited knowledge on the subject at hand.


3.  Do you have any reason to suggest a bookmaker would not be risking more than 1,500 per race, or is it just another misinformed comment based on nothing more than a random number generator?  I have been to some of the lowest level harness racing and they hold plenty more than that.  And maybe if you were the one that didn't show a 140% book, you may even get more.

Report BJT January 15, 2015 3:00 AM GMT

Jan 15, 2015 -- 1:13AM, logroller wrote:


BJT     15 Jan 15 00:53  Joined:   30 Oct 04      | Topic/replies: 19,840  | Blogger: BJT's blog   Lesson of the day.  The three terms "Block User", "Quote", and "Report" are clickable links.  The "Quote" link, will quote the post you wish to quote, and format it in a way that doesn't require finding which part is actually said by which person.  Is amazing the technological capabilities available to us today......Tune in tomorrow for the next lesson; How to use the "Block User" link.........More stickers await. WTF does that mean? are u drunk


It means, my highly intelligent friend, that your posts are illegible because there is no separation in your posts from what you are trying to quote, and what you are trying to respond with.  I can't be any clearer than to point you to the 3 clickable links, one of which is "Quote" to make your posts actually a little more worthwhile as people will know what you are saying and what you are disputing.

Report BJT January 15, 2015 3:05 AM GMT

Jan 15, 2015 -- 1:27AM, logroller wrote:


oh u r such a sook BJT..................u make ludicrous statements with only the thoughts in your head as proof, and then when some one broadsides you - block user


Once again, Mr Einstein reincarnated, there was no threat to block anybody.  I merely pointed out that in the 3 part lesson, where "How to use the Quote button", was lesson 1, that lesson 2 would be "How to use the Block User button".  Lesson 3 for the record would be "How to use the Report button".  Although one would think if you could comprehend lesson 1 and could work out how to use the quote button, that the other 2 would be quite explanatory, since the lesson is basically "CLICK ON IT" for all 3 of them.

Would you like to make an arrangement for lesson 2, or do you think you can work out how to click on a link based on the advice already given being "CLICK ON IT".



So while you think I am making ludicrous statements, and you have somehow broadsided me, maybe have a look again, because none of your response suggested any comprehension on your part of what it was you were actually replying to.


Bliss level, extreme.

Report BJT January 15, 2015 3:55 AM GMT

Jan 15, 2015 -- 2:09AM, nickw wrote:


Dont really think you understand the subjectif it was so easywhy arnt there people lining up to get a license and cash in on this easy money...


Not sure.  5 years ago, why wasn't there people lining up to make money arb trading?

Maybe the bond required is out of some peoples reach?  Maybe financial or criminal history?  Maybe most punters are that ego driven that they believe making money is secondary to being right?  Why are there so many punters that still bet on the tote?


What exactly don't I understand?

You lay minimum of 1 horse, and either balance your books, or trade it straight off on Betfair.

Something 4.50 on Betfair, 3.30 best bookie, you put it to 3.50.  Maybe take 1,000 on it, it wins, you make 1,000, or trade it off and lock in 330.  Pay your fees out of that, move on.  Do your 8 races, and do the city 8 races, 16 races a day, take 1,000 on each race, get 1-2 winners that you payout on per day, and make money.
Doesn't need to be any harder than that.  The only time it is harder than that, is if people are backing the ones you aren't actively laying, meaning they are laying at worse odds for themselves, and make you more money.

Occasionally somebody will throw 50 bucks on at 26 with you where you back it off at 110 that will get up, 10 dollar shot at 14 that gets up.


The only difference with arbing here, is that instead of looking for a bookmaker that will take a bet, and waiting for that bookmaker to get a price wrong, you are standing up with a bag over your shoulder and people are coming up to you offering you the chance to do it.

Report nickw January 15, 2015 4:13 AM GMT
Not even worth typing a reply
Report BJT January 15, 2015 4:20 AM GMT
Why not counter it with something instead of simply saying "you don't understand" and "not worth a reply"?  If I am wrong, why am I wrong?  Can't be that difficult can it?
Report nickw January 15, 2015 4:24 AM GMT
so what happens whenyou are taking bets and a horse shortens on betfair say from3.50 to 3.00 you are betting 3.30
customer ask for 1k at 3.3 ?

u look at betfair its trading at 3.00
remember you Must take the bet...

most the horse people are backing on track are the horses that are going off on betfair
Report BJT January 15, 2015 4:30 AM GMT
Why would you be offering 3.30 if it was 3.50 and shortening on Betfair? ConfusedConfused
Report Punching Watsons January 15, 2015 4:49 AM GMT
Im not sure if this clowns serious or taking the piss.

But the premium charge gets charged at the full rate to the bookmakers or they get 50% off it as well?
Report nickw January 15, 2015 5:04 AM GMT
Pw

Would be no change To any PC charges
Report BJT January 15, 2015 5:05 AM GMT
Seriously though.  If your whole premise of bookmaking is to trade off on Betfair, your question is the same as "what happens if BF is trading at 3.00 and you put up 6.00 about a horse, what do you do then?"...  You give up the game.  Seriously.


What you are basically suggesting (from what I can tell), is that the people on track, are likely to be only betting on the horses that are shorter on Betfair, ie value betting or arbing.  Now who are these people and how are they getting better information than you?  You are licensed to have computers, with real time information, and a guy with a mobile phone or a tablet is better at reading the market than you are?
You are monitoring Betfair prices, and your own prices, with the help of an internet connection and computer.  They are monitoring 5+ bookmakers prices, and Betfair prices, with a mobile phone, and a wallet full of cash and somehow juggling these things walking around a ring ready to jump on a bet.
You are sitting there with a program setting prices based on 15%+ less than BF, updating say every 30 seconds, and a guy with a mobile phone is able to arb against you?


This is the same argument that shows the state of boomkaking at the moment, where the biggest bookmakers in the world are accountants, and wouldn't know how to run a book, hence why they are so scared of a guy sitting at home on his computer with 10 grand in his bank.  Rather than be a bookmaker, they simply ban anybody that analyses the market better than them.

People are running bots right now, where they are trading the market, based on WAP, LTP, % drift in certain time frame, where they can take a price available, or put an offer in, 1%, 5%, 10%, 2 ticks, 5 ticks, 10 ticks, etc etc etc etc etc.  And you are telling me you couldn't have a program where all it did was took the price and took 15% off that price, and did that for every runner in the race and set a market based on that?

Really?


You know what though, I have been that guy.  The guy on the phone, walking around the ring on my mobile to my father at home with BF running.  I got 1 bet on for the day, at 5.50, traded it off at 3.80.  Horse won by 3 lengths.  Stupid part about it, is the bookmaker offering the odds was one that openly had the Betfair market in front of them showing them how out of whack their pricing was.

Half the battle of trading, arbing, bookmaking, is speed of information.  If you are telling me that the bookmakers getting around now, have all that advantage, and they still can't compete with a guy with a phone in one hand and a wallet in the other, then all I am hearing is that it would be much much easier than I first thought.
Report BJT January 15, 2015 5:05 AM GMT

Jan 15, 2015 -- 4:49AM, Punching Watsons wrote:


Im not sure if this clowns serious or taking the piss.But the premium charge gets charged at the full rate to the bookmakers or they get 50% off it as well?


Based on that question, it would appear you are not too sure on anything....  PlainPlainPlain

Report logroller January 15, 2015 7:03 AM GMT
The only difference with arbing here, is that instead of looking for a bookmaker that will take a bet, and waiting for that bookmaker to get a price wrong, you are standing up with a bag over your shoulder and people are coming up to you offering you the chance to do it.


the whole point u condescending little t!urd, THERE ARE NO PEOPLE OR MONEY ON TRACK COMING UP TO YOU AND A CHANCE TO DO IT.
Report BJT January 15, 2015 7:08 AM GMT
Your first sentence makes perfect sense.  Then your second sentence you go off track?  Hmm


I believe you said you would easily take 60,000 a week in country meetings?

logroller • January 15, 2015 1:09 AM GMT
well BJT, consider this then............................95% of bookmaker turnover in controlled by 4 bookies, none of those bookies sits on BF to create a arb or profit in market flucs. it just doesn't happen. so then only the track bookies are the ones glued to betfair to pick up pennies in market discrepancy. so at Sale gallops today I would guess there is about 5 bookies on track, who would hold about 50k between them if that. the figures u suggest just don't add up or make any sense. a single bookie could go to 6 meetings a week on track barring city meets and not even hold 60k let alone leave the tracks with that kind of profit



See what I did there?  I didn't even use the quote button, and still managed to quote you and make it obvious what the quoted section from you was.....


Summer school for you.
Report logroller January 15, 2015 7:08 AM GMT
BJT   



  14 Jan 15 06:19 
Joined:   30 Oct 04      | Topic/replies: 19,853  | Blogger: BJT's blog   



Ok.  So while looking good on paper, any knowledge of how the commission rate works, means any decent turnover gets you there anyway.  Forgotten most of what I know about it, but think at any decent commission rate you are looking at about 1 point per 5 dollars.

80,000 points accrued puts you on 50%, or 400k.  So if you turnover 400k in week 1 with them, then you are on that rate anyway.  Any decent bankroll and willing bookmakers you can easily arb your way to a deduction rate like that over a few weeks, and they have people lining up to bet with them.

Could easily run a book on course twice a week and get to that level at the very minimum.

Licensed arbitrage trading.  Ticket to print money.  IMO


just saying that this whole statement of yours just cant be done.
Report logroller January 15, 2015 7:11 AM GMT
your a f!ckwit mate, and u cant be told
Report BJT January 15, 2015 7:12 AM GMT
Nice argument you have there.  Did you not say that 5 bookmakers would take 50k in a day at Sale, and 6 days around 60,000 each?


Did you not say that?
Report BJT January 15, 2015 7:12 AM GMT
Without city meetings.


Did you not say that?
Report trotsman January 15, 2015 1:18 PM GMT
BJT is right on the money with this imo
Report trotsman January 15, 2015 1:21 PM GMT
You'd need to be pretty thrifty to make 6 figures, but this type of 'fielding' is rife.
Report logroller January 16, 2015 2:34 AM GMT
no I did not say that
Report BJT January 16, 2015 4:09 AM GMT

Jan 16, 2015 -- 2:34AM, logroller wrote:


no I did not say that


logroller • January 15, 2015 1:09 AM GMT
well BJT, consider this then............................95% of bookmaker turnover in controlled by 4 bookies, none of those bookies sits on BF to create a arb or profit in market flucs. it just doesn't happen. so then only the track bookies are the ones glued to betfair to pick up pennies in market discrepancy. so at Sale gallops today I would guess there is about 5 bookies on track, who would hold about 50k between them if that. the figures u suggest just don't add up or make any sense. a single bookie could go to 6 meetings a week on track barring city meets and not even hold 60k let alone leave the tracks with that kind of profit



My bad........  ConfusedConfusedConfused

Report logroller January 16, 2015 10:07 AM GMT
as always Blowhard, so convenient for you to leave out the most important words, "between them"
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE January 16, 2015 10:09 AM GMT
We could be in for a 10 pager here.
Report logroller January 16, 2015 10:12 AM GMT
and then of course to add the word "each"


so once again dhead

no I did not say what u suggested
Report BJT January 16, 2015 11:01 AM GMT

Jan 16, 2015 -- 10:07AM, logroller wrote:


as always Blowhard, so convenient for you to leave out the most important words, "between them"


50,000 BETWEEN THEM ON 1 MEETING WOULD SUGGEST 10,000 EACH.  No?  For 1 meeting?  6 MEETINGS AT 10,000 PER, 60,000.  NO


Are you even for real?  How do you even remember how to log in here ffs......

Report BJT January 16, 2015 11:04 AM GMT
NOT INCLUDING CITY MEETINGS...  No?


Where exactly have I misquoted you?  Please, please don't continue to make yourself look like a dcik.

The beauty of being able to quote in a way to show what each party said, means that what you said, word for word, is exactly there to be seen by everybody.  How you can continue to deny it, and claim I misrepresent what you said is way beyond my comprehension.
Report BJT January 16, 2015 11:06 AM GMT
5 bookies holding 50,000 between them on a day at Sale.  Meaning each around 10,000.  A single bookie at 60,000 in a week.


Simple maths mate, and EXACTLY what you said.  Stupid part about it, is you are too stupid to even comprehend what you yourself said.  You have zero hope then of understanding anything I am talking about. 

Point here, is you have no right to be in this conversation in any way shape or form.
Report logroller January 17, 2015 12:37 AM GMT
keep going blowhard, like all big hot winds u will eventually blow yourself out
Report BJT January 17, 2015 1:14 AM GMT
It appears you finally comprehend what is going on around you.  Maybe try that before choosing who you want to attack next time.  You won't come off looking like such a stupid dcik.  CoolCool
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