Australian
I am looking at expanding horse laying operation to include a boutique sports book operation.
I would like to concentrate on major sport events.
I am optimistic that I have finally found aliens (patterns) that will assist me with selection method many hours prior to an event. (global hours).
"Sports" punters thread to discuss.
My logic says that with England out of the comp and Costa not wanting to risk injury then a draw is likely.
My "alien" patterns however tell me to lay the draw.
Live by the sword die by the sword ....I have to follow the aliens....
BIG lay the draw $4.2 (33% profit)
This time I am determined to get it profitable.
Last nights WCup lost me 66%.
Tonight :
Bosnia v. Iran
Big Lay Iran (not to win)
either loss of 64% or win 36%......
Trying to establish early patterns to avoid having to stay up till actual start of any given event.
One entry in the ledger so far ....one loss (66%)
Germany v USA
Laid USA ...
Expecting a certain 10%
"Predict the result of this match. All bets apply to Full Time according to the match officials, plus any stoppage time. Extra-time/penalty shoot-outs are not included."
Summary update :
England v Costa Rica- - 66%
Bosnia v Iran + 36%
Germany v USA + 10%
Brazil v Chile + 65%
Net + 45%
Divide dividend into 100 to give % of win gain or lay loss:
3-1 means if laid..will win 33% or lose 66%.
Keeping liability constant through out the sports "book" will accurately reflect calculation of profit/loss and will prevent altering bet size etc in a whimsical way.
So current 65% profit is simply 65% of current chosen liability.
eg $65.00 per $100.
World Cup
Netherlands v Mexico
Aliens say no brainer---Mexico to lose
so div of 4.00..
25% profit
Any profit between 80-100% gives me discretion to close "the book". Now being Monday is a good time to close (and re-open anther)
I will close this "book" to soak in its success.
90 % of my chosen liability is a good return for a sports "book" a week old.
I will open another "sportbook" maybe tonight or tomorrow. ( I prefer a complete rest on Mondays to mentally recover from previous 5 days devoted to the horses ).
I would luv to see another open a sports book to encourage discussion.I have devoted this to the World Cup and probably next one as well as it gives me an interest in it. As Wimbledon moves along I may digress.
Just to mention I actually use one of those hard cover ledger type books (news agency $10.00) .Record the bets in nominated columns and at the end of the book I simply rule a line , and start again.
Maybe I will better describe if and when I open a second sportsbook thread.
I hope there are some young guns out there who may want to live off this type of activity for a living or second income,which is my motive in doing this.
GL
England v Costa Rica- - 66% ......lost 66% of what?
Bosnia v Iran + 36% same here
Germany v USA + 10% and here
Brazil v Chile + 65% also here
Net + 45%
are u using a set staking plan? say 100 units per all bets ? r u working to a % of a bank? what's it figure? what did u win 90% of
your punting method may have just gone over my head, I'm a bit slow these days
I would appreciate your explain
Jun 30, 2014 -- 6:46AM, logroller wrote:
Hey Henry u want to dumb it down a bit for us mere mortals.England v Costa Rica- - 66% ......lost 66% of what?Bosnia v Iran + 36% same hereGermany v USA + 10% and hereBrazil v Chile + 65% also hereNet + 45% are u using a set staking plan? say 100 units per all bets ? r u working to a % of a bank? what's it figure? what did u win 90% ofyour punting method may have just gone over my head, I'm a bit slow these daysI would appreciate your explain
I would suggest he is betting to a liability.
Say he is betting to 1,000 liability, he would have layed the winner in the England Costa Rica game at I would guess around 2.95.
ie 340 @ 2.95 gives a liability of 663 (340 * (odds -1).
He lost that bet, so hence lost 66% or ~663 dollars (at 1,000 liability).
His next bet 36% winner, would have been risking 640 dollars if he lost, or if the bet won. It didn't.
Bet would have been around 340 @ 2.78.
The 10% winner would have been 100 layed @ 10.00 so risking 900 to win 100. Won so 10% of liability earned.
Then of course laying Brazil at 1.54 for 650 which got up. Was risking 350 with the bet or 35%.
But then, you go through his actual bets and he states laying the draw at 4.2 to make 33%. 1,000/4.2 is 238.
So not entirely sure how 238 is 33% if 65% is 650 ie 1000/1.54 = 650.
I would suggest, good question.
Percentages are the purist way to calculate profit....
Divide dividend into 100 to give % of win gain or lay loss:
3-1 means if laid..will win 33% or lose 66%.
Keeping liability constant through out the sports "book" will accurately reflect calculation of profit/loss and will prevent altering bet size etc in a whimsical way.
So current 65% profit is simply 65% of current chosen liability.
eg $65.00 per $100.
He does state here how he does it, but he claims 4.20 is 33%. So divide the dividend into 100 as he explains would be 100/4.2, or 23.81%. Certainly not 33%.
To get closer to 33%, you would need to do the odds -1, or 100 / (4.2-1) to get 31.25. Still not quite there.
As stated, 100 / 1.54 (ie the last bet) would give around 65%, but doing 100 / (odds -1) would give 185%.
Unsure how this is classified as a book though. Looks like just betting on a few different things. No need to "close a book" or any such thing when you get a certain amount in front. You are either winning, or losing, or actually making a book, which is determined by the event that you are making a book on and finishes when the match/race has finished.
In my book, 4.20 is not 33% risking 66% so not entirely sure what he is doing.
The point he is trying to make, is that he is betting to the same payout or liability, whichever he chooses at the time, and his percentage profit is based on that payout/liability.
What I see is:
Henry's Bets Converted Henry's Lays Percentage of Market Market he profits on. Exp Win Bets Winning Bets HenryStats ProfitPercentage
1.31 4.20 23.79% 76.21% L 76.21% 0 -76.21% -100.00%
1.56 2.78 36.00% 64.00% W 140.21% 1 -40.21% -28.68%
1.11 10.00 10.00% 90.00% W 230.21% 2 -30.21% -13.12%
2.86 1.54 65.00% 35.00% W 265.21% 3 34.79% 13.12%
1.33 4.00 25.00% 75.00% W 340.21% 4 59.79% 17.57%
I see that he has staked 3.4 units***. Returned 4 units. He is nearly .6 units ahead*****, and 17.57% POT.*****
***Unit is the figure bet to, ie unit/odds = bet.
*****This is of course before commission assuming the bets are going on. Surely if you are writing all these odds down, then you can't be coming up with a 4.20 lay as 33% or 66% when you have a 4.00 lay at 25% and a 1.54 lay at 65%.
Either his profit/loss statement doesn't exist, or he hasn't looked at it. If he is staking this way, I can't see how he can be 90% of a unit up.
We can all see for ourselves he claims a +45% profit, then gets a mexico lay at 25% and calls it quits because he is 90% in front.
Quite simply he isn't, and if he was actually betting, and not just posting random numbers on a screen, he would know this.
Could not follow BJT chinese but I was a bit Chinese as well....
http://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.php
This chart above will provide exact %'percentages (I did round some up when doing in my head ) but you will see how close I was .....
Always remember there are odds and dividends (chart shows the 2 columns)
Chosen event:
World Cup
Netherlands v Mexico
Aliens say no brainer---Mexico to lose
so div of 4.00..
25% profit
Chart says 25%
Laying Brazil...65% profit ($1.54)
Chart says 65.5%
Others also correct...some others a bit rough but close,,,(didnt refer to actual odds so cant show precisely)
Seems weird to be explaining this!!Anyway check my numbers ...against the chart....dont apologize just send money
Anyway I have provided the table of odds/dividends/percentages (sure there are many more with the same)
I was hoping to get the attention of newbies cause done "professionally" it can be a great career or at least a second income for many.
Oh yes ...4 out of 5 collects ... and last 4 out of 4.....Thank you
I will start a new sportsbook and again will close it when I get to 80-100%\\
Again hoping to get some young guns .....if anyone else wants to encourage newbies please do!
Jul 1, 2014 -- 1:55PM, henryluca wrote:
This is great there is interest....Could not follow BJT chinese but I was a bit Chinese as well....http://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.phpThis chart above will provide exact %'percentages (I did round some up when doing in my head ) but you will see how close I was .....Always remember there are odds and dividends (chart shows the 2 columns) Chosen event:World Cup Netherlands v MexicoAliens say no brainer---Mexico to loseso div of 4.00..25% profitChart says 25%Laying Brazil...65% profit ($1.54)Chart says 65.5%Others also correct...some others a bit rough but close,,,(didnt refer to actual odds so cant show precisely)Seems weird to be explaining this!!Anyway check my numbers ...against the chart....dont apologize just send money Anyway I have provided the table of odds/dividends/percentages (sure there are many more with the same)I was hoping to get the attention of newbies cause done "professionally" it can be a great career or at least a second income for many.Oh yes ...4 out of 5 collects ... and last 4 out of 4.....Thank you I will start a new sportsbook and again will close it when I get to 80-100%\\Again hoping to get some young guns .....if anyone else wants to encourage newbies please do!
henryluca • June 24, 2014 1:28 PM BST
World Cup: England v. Costa Rica
My logic says that with England out of the comp and Costa not wanting to risk injury then a draw is likely.
My "alien" patterns however tell me to lay the draw.
Live by the sword die by the sword ....I have to follow the aliens....
BIG lay the draw $4.2 (33% profit)
Your chart doesn't at all show 33% profit. Your chart shows :
3/1
4.00
25.00
10/3
4.33
23.08
Inbetween 23.08 and 25%.
My "Chinese" suggested 23.79%, which as I suggested is simply 1/4.20.
Summary update :
England v Costa Rica- - 66%
Bosnia v Iran + 36%
Germany v USA + 10%
Brazil v Chile + 65%
Net + 45%
Your next and last bet was :
henryluca • June 29, 2014 1:44 PM BST
Chosen event:
World Cup
Netherlands v Mexico
Aliens say no brainer---Mexico to lose
so div of 4.00..
25% profit
Doesn't matter what language you post in, 45% + 20% does not equal henryluca • June 29, 2014 10:55 PM BST
Mexico loses so now 90% profit.
My "Chinese" suggested that you had bet 340% of your chosen liability with 400% collected. If you can't understand your own percentages, then how is anybody else supposed to.
I put you at
Mexico loses so now 90% profit.
I put you at 340% staked, 400% returned, before commission. Nowhere near your 90%. 17% POT after 5 bets, could have gone any way, and claiming 4/5 as being something worth celebrating, you are looking at 68% likelihood each bet of winning.
1 bet and you are behind.
really takes another 40% of your figures of 45% + 25% =90% profit yay for me WTF which were out by at least 30% anyway.
Just so you can keep up 33% of you liability, laid against a 4.20 winner, will lose 105.6% of your liability because you overbet it by quite a bit.
Maybe that is what you meant by BIG lay the draw $4.2 (33% profit)
So why not be honest with everybody?
a. You are trying to give everybody a lesson in percentages based on something you read even though you both don't know how to add up, don't have a clue about percentages and need to look at a chart to make a forum post.
and
b. You haven't even bet on them, or you would realise you haven't made anywhere near your claims.
Summary update :
England v Costa Rica- - 66%
Bosnia v Iran + 36%
Germany v USA + 10%
Brazil v Chile + 65%
Net + 45%
After this was a 25% plus World Cup
Netherlands v Mexico
so div of 4.00..
25% profit
Again go to chart
Makes 70%...all that includes my initial 66% loss
Profit was 70% (not 90%....just a arithmetic error at that time done in my head)... (in my own ledger I actually had another which gave me 90% ..but for this thread..70% as I fully disclosed)
Its all good BJT..just trying to get newbies interested in the game of chance and percentages,,,,in a simple way....
BJT this "sportsbook" is just a side salad for me to my horse operations (50 hours per week )...
Maybe you can create a sportsbook too....one selection per night on a global event...or a chosen race somewhere
Its not even about trying to pick a winner ...its about adding up percentages..
Know you are being helpful so all good
Threads like this are good for the forum IMO
henryluca • June 24, 2014 1:28 PM BST
World Cup: England v. Costa Rica
My logic says that with England out of the comp and Costa not wanting to risk injury then a draw is likely.
My "alien" patterns however tell me to lay the draw.
Live by the sword die by the sword ....I have to follow the aliens....
BIG lay the draw $4.2 (33% profit)
On what planet, is England v Costa Rica- - 66%
Your "chart" doesn't show 33% or 66%.
You go to "the chart" and let me know what 4.20 equates to...... FFS And please with the copout I had another that was 25%..... Who are you trying to kid?
When somebody tries to point out your errors with calculations, don't try to patronise them by telling them to go to "the chart". Some of us don't need a chart. In fact, I would question why anybody does.....
