Why Black Caviar won't win today...

I got nothing. maybe if someone crosses & puts her into the rail

Mr Winker, we NSW people are more open minded than our Victorian counterparts,you call her Victorian whereas we from NSW call her Australian I would boo Santa Clause before I knocked her

The only way she was ever gunna lose a race was if she was injured(still won on 3 legs in the UK) or if she drew Barrier one. Worst possible barrier ,gives other jocks a chance of holding her in a pocket,(look what happened to More Jouyous) but I think they will string out show wont make any difference.Bel Sprinter is drawn on her outside and he will most likely miss the start so Luke will be able to push out immediately.

I'd love to see her pocketed and have the other jocks ride against her, be awesome to see her have to 'barge' out into the clear and explode!

she can't get beat, she is too valuable to the belief in the racing and the breeding industry which intrinsically is driven by the punters.

she gives hope to what punters want which brings in the crowds which keeps the breeding impetus going!!!

Please, if she can't lose, she wouldn't be 1.20.  Plenty of 1.20 shots go down... 

I assume all of you have 100% of your bank riding on her winning?  No risk after all.  Right?

I will lay again as I usually do.....and hope that I lose

She is a champion but even champions get beat now and then - today is easily the best field she's been up against for a while - inside gate, there are some small doubts. Most likely wins - will be fascinating to see what price she gets out to on here.

if the race was in Melbourne they probably would've redone the barrier draw after she drew 1

I don't think the barrier is too bad.  Obviously not ideal, but Bel Sprinter not good out of the gates so should get enough room to do something.
Obviously should win this as racing style puts her in winning position every time she races and needs to be run down.  Bel Sprinter is a serious horse though, and Nolen will know what is coming behind and he needs to get her well clear and motoring to the line.  Not good enough to be falling in a hole on the line like she normally is.

In saying that though, BS is a reknowned first up specialist.  Undefeated first up, and 2/9 when not first up, and often just an also ran.
The throat operation he had though should mean a lot more oxygen getting through him, and on the back of last run can't treat him as a first up specialist here.  Time will tell.

Would love to see BC undefeated, but my mates family has shares in BS so happy that he is the one with the big chance of being "the first".....

Maybe 1.35, I would have been all over her.  But very happy with the 1.19 lay.  As long as one of those 2 win, happy days.

I must have been watching a different BLACK CAVIAR to some other people

Only interest for mine is how far she wins by or the fav out market. RAIN AFFAIR in the fav out market, but BC will go past him like he's glued to the rail ffs and most likely win by about 2.5+. BEL SPRINTER a good chance to bounce like a basketball like he normally does 2nd up, appalled that the filthy greedy owners of HAY LIST are yet again showing no regard for the horses welfare and running him.

Schofield got off him in track work and said he is ready to go.  Their opinion probably has some part in the decision making process to run him.  Guess we find out soon enough.

And hey, maybe we are just talking up it being a chance of getting beat to make it more of a thrill when she wins easily.  :)  A race that happens exactly as you expect really can't be even worth watching can it?  You have already seen it many times in your mind.  I like my way better. 

"we are just talking up it being a chance of getting beat"

no no, no we

just you

So the 400k so far against the horse is just me?    Fcuking decimal point gets me every time.....

If it was no chance of getting beat you wouldn't be able to get on at 1.01, and it would STILL be a chance of getting beat.

Not sure if Schofield has come out since last weekend, but after it galloped on Sunday he said he didn't want HAY LIST to start so he doesn't embarrass himself.

Apr 12, 2013 -- 11:50PM, BJT wrote:

If it was no chance of getting beat you wouldn't be able to get on at 1.01, and it would STILL be a chance of getting beat.

so when you pencil in a sure thing you expect 1.01, otherwise it's a lay

Only time I have ever penciled in a sure thing was taking 1.03 20 minutes after the F1 was finished, about the winner.  And there was a fcuking protest about some DRT or some bullshit.

There is no such thing as a sure thing.  It is all probabilities and odds.  If you have something as 100%, then more fool you.

Plenty of things are 1005 BJT

100%

Sure.  But not in horse racing, and not at 1.20.

Are you suggesting that there is no event possible that can happen where she loses?

haven't seen it in 24 starts which has included 2 times injured - still won

Ajax got beat at 40/1 on in a 3 horse race, so no i'm not suggesting that at all

I layed her at 1.19 hoping to back her at 1.25 or so, but didn't look like she was going to get out that far so backed her back at 1.20, screen is all green

So what in a horse race (before it starts) is ever 100%?

You know the answer to that BJT

Here's one, there will be a market up on it

dreaming as usual, wins again never in question

Great ride. That was perfect Luke.

a real champion - there were some very good horses in that race and she did it easy

She would be even more dominant at 1400

The greatest race horse in the world wins 25th consecutive race, she is the greatest and may just be the greatest of all time.

Hope Luke doesnt weigh in light

Did Tom Waterhouse really say that for a horse this short people would usually be having "five hundred thousand, eight hundred thousand" on it??? 

I tried to have a million but he wouldnt let me on

I think I saw something fall off his saddle bag

Frankel better.

I bet you a million bucks that  your not Australian Rob

Tina Turner sang simply the best, she's a black mare as well, she might be racist

Let him dream they just wish they had a champion like this, instead they have to set up races so that fraud can win.

imagine what the foal will be worth if they get together

Frankel better like it with BC on top if they mate

Frankel needs to give up his first sire seasons take just to entice her over I hear....

They should hold an auction to see which owners will pay most to have their stallion cover her

After watching the replay a few times its amazing to think Bell sprinter was one length behind her at the 250. BC beat her by 6  and Ive no doubt Luke has had to use a bit of petrol early to get off the fence and keep out of trouble.

BJT I reckon Frankel, is going to have to prove himself as a stallion before they get too exited about taking them over to him.

He never went to the Arc and you wouldn't take her over to a dud. It would be too expensive!! Better let her race for a few years and showcase her around the world before she picks the best stallions

Id be mating her with Itsa Dundeel

Apr 13, 2013 -- 2:40AM, Wildone wrote:

BJT I reckon Frankel, is going to have to prove himself as a stallion before they get too exited about taking them over to him.He never went to the Arc and you wouldn't take her over to a dud. It would be too expensive!! Better let her race for a few years and showcase her around the world before she picks the best stallions

Hey I don't necessarily think she should go to him, just going by the apparent plan they have in place that says it is already happening....

BJT, not saying you were, but IMO no need to rush her to Frankel yet for racing and the punters sake

One she will always have over Frankel is she is by far a punters favourite over Frankel

How's the tri 38.20 on tatts, money for jam, I spent 150 taking some of the others with my two anchors epaulette and bel sprinter I should have just taken those two on their own, still lots of times  x 38.20 is a very tidy little result. She's just phenomenal, made a real good horse in epaulette and bel sprinter look like provincial hacks. And yes I completely left out that massively over rated milk drinker Rain Affair.

And I think there is something in not waiting til he is proven.  I mean the foal is pretty much guaranteed to make 6+ million just for novelty.  I don't rate Frankel that high, but many do, and in their minds, 2 of the best horses to ever race anywhere ever, getting a foal out of them would be worth plenty. 
If Frankel proves to be a dud stallion, the value of the first foal could only possibly go down.  If he proves to be a good one, there isn't too much extra upside.

At least, imho.

Are you in the Guiness Book of Records Lets, worlds greatest gambler?

to the knockers, i hope you laid her today.

as nolen said, she had to work both ends of the race. a total FREAK !!!!!!!!!!!

be patriotic go to So You Think, two great Australian superstars they would pay anything for that at the local sales.

I've stated repeatedly before Joel that I'm a very good judge but not the greatest punter but in saying that I'll back my judgment against anyone. Rain Affair was one of the best placed horses of all time early in its career and have always steadfastly maintained that it was massively over rated but then again you didn't have to a genius to realise that and anyone who couldn't figure that one out shouldn't be punting.

wd Lets, your post race analysis of what you betted on is very good

If Bel Sprinter had missed a place, I wonder who would've posted post race that his 2nd up form is terrible?????????

I would have

BS probably cost himself second by the tactics..

Like the theory of getting handy on sitting on her back, but he just didn't have that kick and finish due to being too forward.  Still think it was a big run from him though.  The way it went, was certainly never a winning chance.

As far as breeding, nicking stats aren't really impressive for Frankel or So You Think, so on that basis, have to side with Frankel purely for market value, and get in now before he is proven a dud stallion.

I think the best bet would be go over his head and straight to dad.  Won't get much from Frankel that you don't get from Galileo, and he is a proven racehore producer.

But then if that is the case, I completely agree, take her to the biggest events around the world and go for gold and have some fun with her.  America, Dubai, bring it.  Plenty of good stallions to put her over that will still give great value down the track.  No point cashing out now if she is racing better than ever.

Galileo progeny did very little out of our mares BJT

Fark frankel he never left his own backyard and were too scared to even cross the channel and run in a relatively weak edition of the arc, So You Think was destroyed by the most over rated trainer in the world and still won multiple group 1's over there despite him hindering the horse's ability.

Fastnet Rock gives the best results, but looks a little bit too much like fcuking your cousin.  But may come out with an extra leg or 2 which could only help....

Or an extra head which would revolutionise the margins used.  Could then win by 2 heads...

Apr 13, 2013 -- 2:12AM, SecondComing wrote:

dreaming as usual, wins again never in question

How did you go with your Hay List place bet that was unbelievable value at 3.00 or so?  rotflmfao.  Has it finished yet?

I'd rather back a possibility then lay a horse to do something it's never done before

So you layed BC as well after all that?  Backed Hay List to place and layed Black Caviar to lose?

no I did not lay BC, I was saying I wouldn't bet on a horse to something it's never done before (get beaten), for this same reason I never bet heavy on maidens

Fark frankel he never left his own backyard and were too scared to even cross the channel and run in a relatively weak edition of the arc, So You Think was destroyed by the most over rated trainer in the world and still won multiple group 1's over there despite him hindering the horse's ability.

Lol some of the stuff you guys come out with

I scored FIFTEEN centuries in a row in my mates backyard cricket matches, which officially  makes me better then Frankel so now I charge the chicks down the pub a hundred bucks before I'll service them.  Obviously I'll charge more if my first season crop goes all right in Sheffield Shield matches but that will take ages and I've retired now anyway since me father in law decided to start bowling as well as his mum and missus.

But for now, everyone knows I'm the best.

Apr 13, 2013 -- 6:51AM, SecondComing wrote:

no I did not lay BC, I was saying I wouldn't bet on a horse to something it's never done before (get beaten), for this same reason I never bet heavy on maidens

You actually said you would prefer to lay a horse to do something it has never done before...  Your words not mine...

I know what I meant, obviously I mis-worded it

Either way, I was about 14 lengths closer to being right than you were...  So not sure why you are taking issue with anything I said...

I just fail to see the point in laying a horse who is proven to be unbeatable by anything we have going around here

Kahn321 posted
I scored FIFTEEN centuries in a row in my mates backyard cricket matches, which officially  makes me better then Frankel so now I.....


Frankel 14 centuries no losses on his home ground.

Black Caviar 25 centuries no losses. 24 on home ground and 1 in a different hemisphere.

Only ONE other horse in the history of HORSE RACING in everyones backyard all over the world has achieved what Black Cavier has achieved.....and that was almost 200 years ago.

Black Caviar almost twice as good when it comes to WINNING RACES.....because after all that is what the game is about. WINNING.

Apr 13, 2013 -- 9:01AM, SecondComing wrote:

I just fail to see the point in laying a horse who is proven to be unbeatable by anything we have going around here

If we all had the same opinion, none of us could bet.

I see more upside in laying a short priced favourite in a race with other animals making decisions, and other people making decisions, than backing a horse that in all rights had no business being on a race track.
Yes BC is a freak, and better than anything else we have at that distance, but it doesn't take much for a horse to get boxed in, get uncomfortable, and the race could be set up for something else.  Not to mention the things that could happen before even getting it to the track.

Yes I liked the odds, but I only lost 110 on the race, and if my mates horse wasn't running against her, I would have left it alone, basically because I hate when odds are that level.  I am much better the higher the odds get, and rarely lay, and rarely back shorter than about 6.00....

It is all good fun mate, no need for any of us to take it too serious.  After all, we really aren't competing against each other.  At least not directly.

As for Hay List, I heard the opposite, in that Schofield was very happy with its last hitout (heard he was less than impressed with the preceding one), so anything I say in regards to that is purely because you are having a go at me, and that is something that I could use against you.  As is how the forum generally works.

I don't really wish ill on anybody.  Some people backed and won, some layed and lost.  I certainly don't buy into the comments such as hoping people lost money because they disagreed with somebody.  I don't agree with that negative crap at all.

Rant over.

Tmeform has Frankel at 147, the highest ranking ever.
Black Caviar at 136 in 47th place.

Number of wins is irrelevant, it is quality of wins.

Who is timeform?

And what on earth is a frankel????

Totally agree and Frankel's quality of wins nowhere near matches Black Caviar's , how many time did frankel run in races where it had three  sometimes four horse working for it.
When did Frankel set all time weight carrying records in Group 1's,  when did frankel not dodge a top horse?  Black caviar has taken on all comers at set weights at WFA and at handicaps throughout its career and never once dodged a challenger. Nor did it spend its entire career racing in its own backyard.

Great horse frankel and an out and out champion no doubt but it has has no claim to being the greatest of all time when it refuses to take on the absolute elite throughout the majority of its career and never once leaves its comfort zone.

Apr 14, 2013 -- 1:48AM, rob_dylan wrote:

Tmeform has Frankel at 147, the highest ranking ever.Black Caviar at 136 in 47th place.Number of wins is irrelevant, it is quality of wins.

rotflmfao.  The equivalent of the local go kart track saying that Brendan Jones' lap time of 41.19 makes him the best driver in history ahead of Schumacher..

You guys are a funny lot...

rob_dylan, mares and fillies are rated differently to the boys, if black caviar had balls she be up in frankels rating territory.

as it is, she is the highest rated mare in history.

besides how the fcuk does the cotton wool kid get 147?....laughable.

go watch its a dundeel, the best 10f horse in the world, now what will they rate him in the future ?

Frankel lacked longevity. The true test of a champion.

Totally agree and Frankel's quality of wins nowhere near matches Black Caviar's , how many time did frankel run in races where it had three  sometimes four horse working for it.

Errrr not a single time.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion about merits of form but at least have some idea of the horses you're talking about.

back of the paper had BC breaking a 67 year old record, but I couldn't find in paper or professor google what the record was??

I think it was 'Five Minutes More' by Frank Sinatra

LOL

An interesting point Barney.  Google "Black caviar breaks record" and you get lost in the information and multitude of records broken.  Do the same for "Frankel breaks record", and all you see is his stud fee.
A horse that has hardly ever pushed out to the line, has records everywhere.  The boy, pushed out every time to increase stud value and winning distance, has no records of any sort.  Only one they claim, is being the only horse to ever win the Goodwood Sussex Stakes twice.  Probably one of the only ones to attempt it really, as most others would not be running the same campaign against the same horses 2 years in a row unless they weren't expected to be able to grow as a horse.

The owners placement of the 2 horses shows exactly how good they are.  Black Caviars owners are prepared to race anywhere in the world.  Frankels connections ran the same campaign, competing against the same horses.
Northern hemisphere has a multitude of choices of racing, yet Frankel never travelled more than 2 hours in his float.  Now that says a hell of a lot.

Its easy to understand why Frankel was placed like he was, stud value, you can't blame them, but for that reason he should never be classed as the best of all time, potentially best maybe, but best definitely not

****G POMMY **** I HATE THEIR ****G GUTS, NO MORE MR NICE GUY, THE OLD SC IS BACK.

The mighty Black Caviar has been officially retired

http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/04/17/black-caviars-2013-future/

Seems Frankels connections couldn't come up with a figure high enough to entice her over for breeding so she is doing the sensible thing and going to a real stallion..

is this the end of Aust racing ??

no, but the general public will

Black Caviars owners are prepared to race anywhere in the world.

I find it incredible that people can say something like this seemingly in all seriousness when she raced 24 out of 25 times in Australia.

Sorry did the cotton wool kid ever once leave his own backyard. I didn't see him coming here for the cox plate  a race worth at least double more than anything he raced for during his entire career.

Apr 18, 2013 -- 10:10AM, Marcce wrote:

Black Caviars owners are prepared to race anywhere in the world.I find it incredible that people can say something like this seemingly in all seriousness when she raced 24 out of 25 times in Australia.

Incredible?  You need to get out more.  Being prepared is one thing, but having it be worthwhile is a completely different thing.

You obviously have no idea about the logistics involved with travelling between hemispheres, with staff, equipment, and accommodation for all concerned, for months on end, to run for prizemoney that doesn't differ from not travelling.

Lucky for all of us the British empire crashed and burnt centuries ago.  Would be a depressing way to live thinking you mob were in any way in charge of anything with your inability to process any sort of information whatsoever......

Start with the windows.  Outside is a good start for you.