menangle sat nigh INTERDOMION/CHARIOTS/DERBY /OAKS /LADYSHIP MILE

ive put up market on all events that BETFAIR have put up
except THE CHARIOTS feel free to top me as we need to get down to 102%

Interdom final very hard to speed map at first glance - not sure what gets the front? Mah Sish very poorly drawn in 1, Carribean Blaster appears ideally drawn to cross straight to the pegs BUT he does tend to pull when used out of the gate, so what do they do? And assuming they do go to the inside, who do they hand up to? Can't hold the front over two miles and win for mine. Or does Chariot King blast over? Plenty of questions.

Can Restrepo cross Christian Me? Pivotal that part of the race. If Christian Me goes through to lead (those underneath would hand up), he looks too good. Nearly toppled Terror To Love recently.

Guaranteed has a trap draw in the Derby?


I am sure someone out there has some answers to these questions, and many more

i think guaranteed gets off, everyone will be desperate to get across him and i expect the field to open up - although very easy to make a case to pot him

seriously good racing though

tipping,
bluecollatigerpie
bit of a legend /potting majestic mach
jason rulz
terror to love
stig

Anyone see Our Mega Dream just then at Menangle, always been a nice horse over here with real ability but it had been destroyed being trained by an average trainer who can't manage them when they get problems. Now with McCarthy's it was well backed and saluted accordingly, should string a few together as will only gain in confice after that performance. $2.10 on supa tab as well, wasn't bad.

@AussieDriver

At first glance the Speed Map is easiest one you will ever see wtf are you talking about very hard at first glance?

Mah Sish walks out
Caribbean Blaster walks out
Jacka Clive walks out
Chariot King finds the pegs and hands up to the first horse there and that should be 
Excel Stride from 5 who follows him across and goes str8 to the front.

At first glance that is a million to one on - no betting!

Then things get a little interesting or very f'ken boring with ITMQ and TTL going back at the start - who is going to bring them into the race?  As we all saw in those "heats" when horses run home in sub 27seconds they don't lose too often.


Mah Sish is going to need a can opener to get out. Best horse going around at the moment and prebarrier draw the price could be considered a gift. IMO he had only one danger and that was TTL if he came over and just blitzed them.
 
Wakashie

Wakashie is going to the death to give the leader (stablemate) a soft quarter...........Did they do something like this in the "heats" ???

CB is going to beat him to the punch and make him go back to last or take the one x one and then pull out 3w and probably infront of something like Mysta Magical Mach or Mach Alert who are doing nothing but getting in the fken way of 2 horses that are a genuine chance of winning, gotta love horses running interference. 

I wouldn't be betting the farm on either of the 2 favourites in this race, I think they both go back and will be last and 2nd last in the run.

@powerfan

I doubt somehow that Excel Stride has anything like the gatespeed to come across with Chariot King.

There's a couple of others drawn wider that will be lengths in front of Excel Stride unless they are strangled at the start.

After that I stopped reading.  We're all interested in others opinions, but I'm not sure you needed to be so abrasive with your delivery ?   :-)

For starters mah sish won't walk out, if he gets crossed he'll hold up behind the leader and from that draw I doubt they'll be able to resist going forward on Carribean Blaster at the start. I'm themightyquinn could end up a mile back and if Mah Sish is on the fence and terror to love back with quinnie near the rear then its hard to see something towing them into the race, which makes things far more difficult for them and means both of them have to get moving earlier than they would like, Mah sish comfortably held the leaders back in the Victoria cup when they flew out at the start and quinnie crossed so at absolute worst its going to end 3 back the fence I doubt carribiean blaster's crew would let a horse like chariot king cross them if they can avoid it and the same goes for Butt on Mah Sish as there's no way he lets Chariot King cross if he can possibly avoid it.

Suffice to say you can't see Excel Stride going STR8 to the top either ?!?!?!

Lol Powerfan. I think Trotman covered it, your post is laughable. Might be an idea to leave it to those who watch a video or two

trotman, "There's a couple of others drawn wider that will be lengths in front of Excel Stride unless they are strangled at the start,"


Oh reallyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, you don't say. WOW.

U mean like sayyyyyyyyyyy, ITMQ who leads all day every day if they want to lead but he is probably going to be pulled back off the gate?

TTL - he doesnt need to have too much gatespeed to go to the front if ITMQ goes back as expected. He has a big finish we all know and this race is over 3000m - not real sure he wants to lead with CB outside him and Washakie trying to get the chair. - I think its written in stone he goes back too.

But hey, there's a soft lead there for who wants it.   

AT FIRST GLANCE

I even underlined it for you this time.

Agree LE, but do you think either of those 2 need a tow? TTL did work at the 1200 in nz cup, I think he could tow himself

@lets Elope, Chariot King is your leader. He is handing up, Mah Sish is 3 back the pegs. Forget talking about being behind the leader, That leader isnt going to ead for long. If Lincoln goes forward from out wide Mah Sish is 4 back when he hands up.

A Butt 3 or 4 pegs in an inter final on a tough one paced bully??

he's been around a long time... you should no better

again @ lets elope,

if CB can come out with them, he doesnt need to kick up burning to keep out Chariot King when CK is going to just let him roll to the front without a fight.

Why would you waste petrol when you amble to the front anyway?

Its a Race full of Surprises So many ifs and buts.
Im On the Nzrs and Blow out horse is Pub Blitz
Still think Terror to Love very hard to beat.
Who is to say he wont work to lead.

I dont think Mah sish is impossible to hold up myself if Butt reallly wants to lead and if he does, who pressures him??? Carribean blaster can't sit putside him and beat him and nor would I think can Terror to Love. I'll be backing Mah Sish and Quinnie, both are great chances.

outside him

Mah Sish can't lead LE, Carribean Blaster crosses him if they are serious (which Andy Gath has already stated they want to), and Chariot King would also cross him easily. That is without even mentioning a couple drawn very wide who would also get over him easily.

100/1 to hold lead, the question will be whether Butt is desperate to try and get off or not

AD I may well be way off the mark but I'm not so sure they cross him as easily as everyone thinks, just my opinion of course.

I agree Lets, definitely think it's more likely than not he gets crossed but would be happy to be on at the 100/1. If you watch the Vic Cup, Mah Sish got crossed easily by Quinny and Gold Ace and held the others, including Bitobliss (who obviously wasn't trying to cross but still came out)easily. Btobliss showed that he is definitely quicker than Carribean Blaster so I'm far from convinced that CB can get across Mah Sish unless really driven out. Chariot King is the one with genuine pace who can cross if they want to to but will they burn him up after the problem. Sir Lincoln is a frontrunner but won't cross them easily unless they hand up to him.

if as a few are alluding to, there is no obvious top class leader could ITMQ go forward if they thought they would not have to burn?

if they did decide that maybe not announce COT and wear the fine

am i dreaming?

Craig I like your posts so not bagging you at all, but there is no way ITMQ will go forward.  They are totally committed to driving him cold in big races and the draw would not even give them a hint of temptation.

Chariot King will cross for fun.  There is no way he won't burn out cause it won't be that hard for him to do it and he has been going as well as he can by being used out of the gate.  Then you'd think Lincoln Royal will cross him.

totally committed from now on that is!!!!

Im Tipping Blaster to lead, Chariot to have a small crack, Terror to love to amble around and take lead.
Walk and sprint home in 54 nothing else a Chance CB runs 2nd Mah Sish Close up 3rd. IMQ looking for oxygen as Sydney Oxygen he cant handle.
Easiset money ever made more you put on more you collect.

Super Load Up terror to love. UNBEATABLE

If lots of Pace on Pub Blitz to score Knock out Punch and Lloydy collects Big from small outlay 8 weeks ago

Lincoln Royal does have the speed to cross TTL, could be the only thorn in your scenario which dos look very plausible.

Lincoln royal leads - provided he passes vet

$100K for 2nd .... $15K for 5th to last.

Some could actually be thinking the right sit might get a great payday, whereas going for glory might end up with much less ?

Very excited about the BEST program of Harness Racing I've EVER seen !!!  Enjoy boys.

TROTMAN the comments and RATINGS/PRICES  that you provide for betfair punters is one one of the greatest ratings service ive ever seen

Agree with Elsu, ratings service is best 100% market I have seen anywhere. Most so called experts can't even get it right at around 130%

I have found the meeting near impossible, like most here really struggling with map in ID final so hard to bet with confidence. Am happy to back Bit Of A Legend in Derby though hoping they drive him cold as can see some egos coming into play with Guaranteed and M Mach plus CA will be driven tough

have to agree HALYER .TOUGH meeting for the punters sunday

Thanks for the compliments boys - not all my own work as we have expert contributors from all over now.
Make sure you send those sentiments through to Betfair if you wish the guides to continue ?

I think you guys know there's rarely ever just ONE speed map before the race.
Assessments need to be the weighted average of the multiple possibilities I guess.

Halyer - best NSW Derby I ever saw - Westburn Grant vs Rockleigh Victory - now THERE was a race MADE by egos - they went at it for three laps round HP ... a long way back to the 3rd horse ... Our Aynsley - but the records seem to have been changed - perhaps there was a positive ?

I remembered RV running 2nd in that race as well but just watched Youtube clip (about 3 mins in) and OA did run 2nd http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=uUy2JGMN5Ao

Just goes to show how all our memories are fallible - and records and notes much more reliable !!

Mind you - in those days I only watched the one I backed :-)

Where are trot mans markets located?

And I heard there was a breakfast with the stars?! Why am I finding out Thursday afternoon

Betfair should post the full analysis tomorrow mid morning if they stick to the usual routine.

They have a webpage       www.betting.betfair.com.au

It has all sorts of stuff.

thanks leftrightout - its probably sacrilege but put my work into the lower grade races rather than the group 1's - thought it unlikely but had some merit in my mind if they walk - if leaders run 26 seconds up the straight would need to run 25 coming from last - maybe it can?

Just watched that Youtube Clip this was around time i was involved in Trots
Loved Rockleigh Victor and Westburn Grant also see a Horse that could of been a Superstar if Manners were right Almeta Boy. I think his run in Miracle Mile he galloped and put in a Huge run.
Im also advised Franco Tiger would of beat him in Inter if Hopples never Broke.
Also Rockleigh Victory should of won an Inter if Vinny stays on Fence when the heavens opened up for Thorate

well i did some work and watched the trial - my view is ITMQ would need to improve a lot to win on that run

Pub Blitz took him into the race and was untouched yet ITMQ driven out only beat PB a few metres

was flat out and last quarter was 27.4 yet couldn't reel in winner

Just watched part 2 & 3 and seen some great races and Franco Tiger would not of won.
Also Frost vs Ice that was a great Battle

Aussie Driver, I haven't read a lot of posts lately so not sure what your thinking is.

Do you give your old favourite Bitofbliss any chance? i wrote him off at first glance last start but he did only puncture late and he had a hard run - puncture bad tho he did

your views?

Craig - while I still prefer TTL, don't write off Quinn on that trial - he worked much better at Breakfast With Stars which was televised yesterday, sizzled in fact.
Who knows, he could have been a bit tucked up from the trip on Tues ?

Hi Craig - BOB is not the same horse since he had leg problems in the Vic Cup. The Kilmore Cup/Legends horse would be extremely hard to beat (infact only TTL could beat that horse imo), but he was way, way below that in his heat. That was simply not good enough.

My view is he will be driven ultra patient this time, similar to Hunter Cup, and possibly go to the line with NCR. But as he is not at the top of his game, he can't work and win. Unless Scott has found something in the last fortnight?

thanks trotman and aussie

i tried to find some vision trotman from yesterday but couldn't?

Daily Telegraph says ITMQ ran it's last quarter in 25.6 yesterday - wow

As I said, it balances out the uninspiring trial run.

I guess you also need the other splits to put it in persective, and we'll probably never know them.

Two starts ago Terror To Love and Christen Me ran 25.9 at the end of a 2600m race at Addington  ...  a 1200m track with a 250m straight !

These numbers just keep getting LOWER !

[ I wont mention Ashburton - which I think could need re-measuring :-) ]

just heard Mick Russo got 15 months

Trotman - I always assumed the Ashburton track was down a mine shaft. I could run a 26 quarter there

Whats the news Shane Cramp 6 Months?

Mail is hasnt stopped Raining
Can Horses make it from behind on Bogged track
With WA Oxygen out of his System and Bogged track IMQ lay of the day for place

Lloydy,

Typically Jimmy's tracks always handle heavy rain well - it's the misty soft stuff over a couple of days that just sits in the top of the surface and makes it gluey.  I think it will race okay tomorrow cause the rain is easing, and there is some wind about too.

All the same - its something to think about !?!?!

The Ladyship market is the one that makes no sense to me - the Victorians seem well and truly underestimated there.

Am already into Pembrook Caesar at 16's, and will be having something on Broadways Best as well. They seem close to the bets of the day for mine.

Also quite bullish about Musical Delight in the Oaks - she will be much better off with a sit this week

Just watched the Legends replay again - if only that horse was in the same shape as that right now

http://media.harness.org.au/vic/MXM24111201.wmv

Sometimes the good ones have an engine that propels them faster than their chassis can sustain !?!

You on track today Trotman?

Leaving in half an hour

Good luck

where's the quinny knockers now, that was nothing short of stunning that win!!!

Give it a rest, no one ever said he has not got a brilliant turn of speed when he gets the breaks to use it

Cmon Aussie, cmon, cmon.....please bow down....and allow him his moment in the Sun.

You know he's earned it.

Absolutely Spoon, as I said on the other thread, he showed his great burst. Well done to the clan

well done lets elope sensational win
i know a certain BETTING SHOP  that lost over 100k on QUINNY

I was talking about Lets.

Sorry Spoon, thought we were actually talking about the horse!

No one can say I didn't declare my hand beforehand either this time spoon. I said mah sish wasn't impossible of leading and at absolute worst would hold up behind the leader at the start and that I was backing mah sish and quinnie. Butt's drive was sensational and Junir took the only option that was avaiable given to him and drove with great confidence in his horse. Dexter's drive on christen me was outstanding as well the least said about Prentice's drive on I'm Victorious, the better, going to the pegs he's kidding.

I think JR should invest some of the Drivers prize money and fix his teeth.

I had $5 on I'm Victorious....if I was gonna follow one...it would be it.


Bask, Lets. Bask until warm.....then turn over, bask on your stomach...and let all the haters... kiss yo flabby white ass.

I'll pass on that spoon, don't want them anyone near my arse thank you very much.

well done ITMQ and comngrats to all followers and you west australians

been plenty of enjoyable late friday nights seeing him scorch around Gloucester and great to see him transfer it to menangle today on a great day for harness racing (the trots)

Yeah Craig if that doesn't silence his knockers nothing will, it's vllvery well to knock the horse but if you do it without analysing the reasons for his so called failures you're just going to end up making a goose of yourself.

it's all very well

i thought you had created a new word "vllvery"

Craig that was achieved by trying to correct a typo, instead it created another.