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This isn’t a vintage Cox Plate field.
There’s a few stayers, some milers and the three 3YO’s which are the unknown quantity, they may or may not get the trip.
1. Shootout 23-00
Outclassed. 6YO with 9 wins next to his name. 8 of those up to a mile and one at 2400m, I presume that was the QLD Derby on a slow track. They tried him as a handicapper and that didn’t work, I’m willing to bet against him proving he is a WFA horse even in this below par field.
2. Sincero 38-00
Another Sydney visitor better suited to the mile. Has posted 12 wins, nothing beyond a mile. Worryingly for his backers his best runs are his first two when resuming 5/8 first up and 3/6 second up. Pass.
3. Glass Harmonium 75-00
3 wins at the distance and one at 2200m. Not the worse if he jumps. Last year’s McKinnon Stakes winner. Unfortunately he is hit and miss at the barriers, He can be a value bet if he gets away or you’ve done your money cold after 2 strides. Willing to risk.
4. Green Moon 5-20
In my mind this horse is a handicapper and the bookies have him second elect for the WS Cox Plate. I don’t think he has the high speed early to put himself in a position to win and he is going to have to do it tough. He won the Turbull Stakes with relative ease but he goes back up in weight under the WFA scale. Under the odds and he isn’t going anywhere on my tickets.
5. Rekindled Interest 28-00
I like this horse. Ran 3rd in the race last year and was a tragedy beaten after the jock pulled the wrong reign. 20/1 shot on Saturday and it’s an eachway bet forever.
6. Linton 120-00
Shouldn’t be in the field.
7. Happy Trails 65-00
Miler.
8. Ethipoia 23-00
Two Miler. Broke his maiden status in the AJC Derby. I guess they can all win with the right run and the breaks fall their way and the race is run to suit….this bloke falls into that category. Not for mine and the 22/1 quote on offer is big unders for a horse that imo is a Melbourne Cup horse..to win a Cox Plate at his 7th start is highly unlikely.
9. Ocean Park 7-20
Should be the outright favourite. Has been the form horse all spring, won 4 on the trot and other than Rekindled Interest, he is the 2000m WFA horse in the field. Needs to have an ounce of luck slotting in from his barrier 9 draw but he is the clear on top elect.
10. More Joyous 11-50
Champion mare. I don’t like potting champions and she is that without question but Whatever Gai was thinking taking gate 11 was a dumb idea although to be perfectly honest, I don’t think a gate matters, she can’t win at the trip. She’s won 4 at 1600m, 3 at 1500m and 5 at 1400m and one win at 2000m. Happy to risk she won’t be adding to that one win at 2000m here.
11. Southern Speed 42-00
Should have gone around in the Caulfield Cup last week. The way the race was run she would have been one of the ones charging home late. I think this horse can run two miles. Her run in the McKinnon last year after winning the Caulfield Cup had 2 miles written all over it and that’s with Leon McDonald having a couple weeks to freshen her up. If she was ready to go in the Caulfield Cup last week then I can’t see how running her in the Cox Plate is going to result in anything but her finishing out the back.
12. Pierro 4-80
Champion 3yo yet to run at 2000m. Bred for it. Should have won the Caulfield Guineas but for pilot error. Look, if it is as good as everyone hopes it is, then this bloke just wins. I’m going to do some trifectas with him winning and take some without the 3yo’s running in the first two placings.
13. All Too Hard 11-00
This bloke looks like the 3yo that will get the trip out of the three of them but his closing sectionals were far from impressive in the Guineas. He won because Pierro stopped he didn’t chase him down he got there by default. This race may be much the same and he wins by grinding home with the postage stamp weight on his back. As I suggested under Pierro, you have to do two bets one with the youngsters and one without.
14. Prosir 10-00
By Choisir out of an Encosta del Lago mare. Bred to run a mile and his wins up to a mile have all been super impressive. The one time at the 2000m trip he got run over by It’s a Dundeel. Again he has no weight but a wide gate. The least likely of the 3YO’s but he did get beat by a very good one last time out. Happy to risk it at the distance.
Selections:
5. Rekindled Interest
9. Ocean Park
12. Pierro
There’s a few stayers, some milers and the three 3YO’s which are the unknown quantity, they may or may not get the trip.
1. Shootout 23-00
Outclassed. 6YO with 9 wins next to his name. 8 of those up to a mile and one at 2400m, I presume that was the QLD Derby on a slow track. They tried him as a handicapper and that didn’t work, I’m willing to bet against him proving he is a WFA horse even in this below par field.
2. Sincero 38-00
Another Sydney visitor better suited to the mile. Has posted 12 wins, nothing beyond a mile. Worryingly for his backers his best runs are his first two when resuming 5/8 first up and 3/6 second up. Pass.
3. Glass Harmonium 75-00
3 wins at the distance and one at 2200m. Not the worse if he jumps. Last year’s McKinnon Stakes winner. Unfortunately he is hit and miss at the barriers, He can be a value bet if he gets away or you’ve done your money cold after 2 strides. Willing to risk.
4. Green Moon 5-20
In my mind this horse is a handicapper and the bookies have him second elect for the WS Cox Plate. I don’t think he has the high speed early to put himself in a position to win and he is going to have to do it tough. He won the Turbull Stakes with relative ease but he goes back up in weight under the WFA scale. Under the odds and he isn’t going anywhere on my tickets.
5. Rekindled Interest 28-00
I like this horse. Ran 3rd in the race last year and was a tragedy beaten after the jock pulled the wrong reign. 20/1 shot on Saturday and it’s an eachway bet forever.
6. Linton 120-00
Shouldn’t be in the field.
7. Happy Trails 65-00
Miler.
8. Ethipoia 23-00
Two Miler. Broke his maiden status in the AJC Derby. I guess they can all win with the right run and the breaks fall their way and the race is run to suit….this bloke falls into that category. Not for mine and the 22/1 quote on offer is big unders for a horse that imo is a Melbourne Cup horse..to win a Cox Plate at his 7th start is highly unlikely.
9. Ocean Park 7-20
Should be the outright favourite. Has been the form horse all spring, won 4 on the trot and other than Rekindled Interest, he is the 2000m WFA horse in the field. Needs to have an ounce of luck slotting in from his barrier 9 draw but he is the clear on top elect.
10. More Joyous 11-50
Champion mare. I don’t like potting champions and she is that without question but Whatever Gai was thinking taking gate 11 was a dumb idea although to be perfectly honest, I don’t think a gate matters, she can’t win at the trip. She’s won 4 at 1600m, 3 at 1500m and 5 at 1400m and one win at 2000m. Happy to risk she won’t be adding to that one win at 2000m here.
11. Southern Speed 42-00
Should have gone around in the Caulfield Cup last week. The way the race was run she would have been one of the ones charging home late. I think this horse can run two miles. Her run in the McKinnon last year after winning the Caulfield Cup had 2 miles written all over it and that’s with Leon McDonald having a couple weeks to freshen her up. If she was ready to go in the Caulfield Cup last week then I can’t see how running her in the Cox Plate is going to result in anything but her finishing out the back.
12. Pierro 4-80
Champion 3yo yet to run at 2000m. Bred for it. Should have won the Caulfield Guineas but for pilot error. Look, if it is as good as everyone hopes it is, then this bloke just wins. I’m going to do some trifectas with him winning and take some without the 3yo’s running in the first two placings.
13. All Too Hard 11-00
This bloke looks like the 3yo that will get the trip out of the three of them but his closing sectionals were far from impressive in the Guineas. He won because Pierro stopped he didn’t chase him down he got there by default. This race may be much the same and he wins by grinding home with the postage stamp weight on his back. As I suggested under Pierro, you have to do two bets one with the youngsters and one without.
14. Prosir 10-00
By Choisir out of an Encosta del Lago mare. Bred to run a mile and his wins up to a mile have all been super impressive. The one time at the 2000m trip he got run over by It’s a Dundeel. Again he has no weight but a wide gate. The least likely of the 3YO’s but he did get beat by a very good one last time out. Happy to risk it at the distance.
Selections:
5. Rekindled Interest
9. Ocean Park
12. Pierro
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Replies: 23
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Ocean park for me given boss another chance after sneak peak
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Interesting you think Pierro is bred for 2,000m. Not many Lonhros even bother racing at 2,000m let alone win at that distance. (Realise the dam won at 2,400m though).
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Lonhro-octagonal-zabeel-sir tristram..........i think Pierro has some chance of getting the 2000m based on that breeding line. Lonhro didn't run 2000m until he was 4.
Lohnro As a 4YO WON MRC Yalamba S-G1, 2000m. WON VRC Mackinnon S-G1, 2000m. WON AJC Queen Elizabeth S-G1, 2000m. 6th MVRC W.S. Cox Plate-G1, 2040m. As a 5YO WON MRC Yalumba S-G1, 2000m. WON MRC St. George S-G2, 1800m. WON VRC Australian Cup-G1, 2000m. 2nd AJC Queen Elizabeth S-G1, 2000m. 3rd MVRC W.S. Cox Plate-G1, 2040m. |
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Cox Plate history is littered with repeat winners and / or place-getters.
Something like 45% of renewals have had a repeat Winner and or place-getter. Rekindled Interest to continue this trend. |
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^Something like 45% of renewals have had a repeat Winner and or place-getter, in the placings that year.^
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Bettingforfun - I know Lohnro got 2,000m, but how many of his kids have? Very very (very) few. Maybe Pierro does, but it would be an exception.
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(sorry, that post should be addressed to Powerfan)
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He may be an exception, but if he won the Caulfield Guineas by 3 lengths and had he not been slaughtered early that is exactly what would have happened, you'd have no doubt he'd get the 2000m. Obviously, he still has to do it but you'd be confident he would.
Don't forget he won over 1600m as a 2YO. Shoulda won the CG over 1600m as a 3YO. (IMO if he had the run ATH had in the Guineas then he wins by 6l at an absolute minimum). It's just guesswork until he runs it but I'm betting more on he does than on he doesn't. I'll do my savers with Rekindled Interest and Ocean Park and hope RI gets the chocolates. |
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disagree re shoot out. he has won 4 group 1's 4 group 2's.
won the george main group 1 2 starts back. and can run the distance. ran 13th in the 2010 melbourne cup. ran into a champion so you think that spring. 13-23 FLEM 02-Nov-10 3200M Slow6 (MELB CUP G1) No age restriction Hcp Limit 49.0 $6,175,000 Corey Brown (16) 55.0 Rtg:116 1st AMERICAIN (USA) 54.5: 2nd MALUCKYDAY (NZ) 51.0: 3-26.87, Margin 13.5L 9th at 1200m, 10th at 800m, 14th at 400m, Betting $26/$26. 4-12 FLEM 30-Oct-10 2000M Dead4 (MACKINNON G1) No age restriction WFA $1,002,500 ($45,000) Corey Brown (2) 58.0 Rtg:116 1st SO YOU THINK (NZ) 58.0: 2nd DESCARADO (NZ) 58.0: 2-4.92, Margin 5.4L 5th at 1200m, 5th at 800m, 6th at 400m, Betting $9/$11. Crowded1800 4-10 M V 23-Oct-10 2040M Dead4 (COX PLATE G1) 3YO & Up WFA $3,050,000 ($130,000) Corey Brown (9) 57.5 1st SO YOU THINK (NZ) 57.5: 2nd ZIPPING 59.0: 2-7.45, Margin 2.7L 7th at 1200m, 7th at 800m, 5th at 400m, Betting $11/$13/$13. 3-16 FLEM 03-Oct-10 2000M Dead4 (TURNBULL G1) 4YO & Up SWP $502,500 ($45,000) Stathi Katsidis (2) 58.0 Rtg:115 1st ZIPPING 59.0: 2nd SHOCKING 59.0: 2-3.23, Margin 0.3L 6th at 1200m, 6th at 800m, 4th at 400m, Betting $3.70/$5/$5F. Rider viewed the Stewards film |
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interesting article. Andrew gets around... best connected journo in melbourne. Gai was just a bit sleepy
 http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/racing-industrys-wake-up-call-over-betting/story-fnbkrbz6-1226503414902 |
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with 49 on it's back Pierro gets the 2000 easy enough
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As a former racecourse detective said this week: "Stewards should be allowed to bet - that way they'd watch the races a bit closer."
bit of truth in that... |
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Sneak peak should have one on boss, as he had plenty of time , hopefully with another forward going horse on ocean park boss can actually put his foot down this time and steam it up.
I think ocean park easy |
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Green Moon has been known to win tough in the past
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Yes indeed. A steward adjudicating a protest where he's got 10k riding on the result...sounds wonderful.
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well considering some of the decisions i doubt thats anything new..
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Why? Stewards are not allowed to bet and are squeaky clean.
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megsy - disagree re shoot out. he has won 4 group 1's 4 group 2's.
I wouldn't back him with monopoly money but don't let me stop you putting yours on. The 2000m form you posted is all 2 yrs ago......i'm happy to completely ignore that than use it as a guide to win this. |
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have you seen any of the runs rekindled has put in this start ???
horribly out of form, has none, dont worry about the track record means fk all if you not running well and he is not |
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Green Mooooooon
Rekindled Interest Ocean Park luck in running determines the order of trifecta sorry Dawg  |
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Have to agree with powerfan's analysis - Ocean Park should be the favourite for mine. Open race, but the value with the kiwi. Southern Speed a knockout chance, think she might get a bit too far back, but might be the widest runner and swoop late.
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Pierro for me - I reckon he dug in at the end again last start when he saw All Too Hard - he will fight like his granddad did and has bit of his dad's flair. Handled the valley beautifully 2 starts back as well. The 49.5 is a massive advantage for the 3yos
Green Moon clearly the hardest to beat I'll throw in Prosir / Shoot Out / Ocean Park and All Too Hard for 3rd and 4th |
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Best lay of the day More Joyous for place ..barrier.. distance .. state of track (after 15 earlier races )give it no hope.
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