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Josh-T
11 Apr 12 08:42
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 399 | Blogger: Josh-T's blog
http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/Australia/default.aspx?id=59133

I feel a little deflated. Perhaps a little more than deflated.
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Report Kye April 11, 2012 8:46 AM BST
2% during carnival. What a rort? lets rip off the punter!

At this rate BF will be leaving Aust
Report Halyer April 11, 2012 8:46 AM BST
Feel the same mate, no doubt the rest will follow like sheep now too
Report Kye April 11, 2012 8:49 AM BST
BF have left their run too late. Should have least pulled out of NSW to give them something to think about.
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 8:52 AM BST
ffs CryCryCry

oh well, hopefully Australians can still post on the forum when Betfair leaves the country

how could racing administrators be so short sighted, selfish and greedy - no wait, that's racing administrators in a nutshell Sad
Report Josh-T April 11, 2012 8:56 AM BST
It's all very sad. I guess I'll have to move to the UK now, that's the worst part!

Rob Hines last week said we'll wait and see the impact. Wait a week? Laughable. RVL have been against the T/O model for so long. The TAB is the great enemy.  And I will not ever bet with them.
Report Joel April 11, 2012 8:59 AM BST
I would think RVL would be smart enough to work with Betfair to determine exactly what constitutes turnover for them.
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON April 11, 2012 9:05 AM BST
If there is no betfair....there is no spoon.

I shall receive it as a message that it's time to retire my punting boots , well worn after

37 years Sad........ but retire, they definitely will. Plain
Report Kye April 11, 2012 9:05 AM BST
Will we all be experts in Northern territory & tasmanian racing in 6 mths time? or will all states follow?
Report Josh-T April 11, 2012 9:15 AM BST
I'm with you Spoon. I won't bet again. Perhaps a quaddie every month, probably not even that because I won't want to bet with the TAB ever again. 

I hope you're right Joel - but perhaps there are no ties? I mean it wasn't a money maker to now...
Report Josh-T April 11, 2012 9:16 AM BST
I mean I won't bet on Australian racing again I should say...I'll migrate to the UK and sports.
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 9:17 AM BST
Tassie - the great white hope Kye, bonus is cheap house prices - beautiful spot as well. 

Or New Zealand - they can bet in-play as well
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 9:18 AM BST
even worse - sports are sure to follow CryCryCry
Report THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON April 11, 2012 9:22 AM BST
I have no other accounts and don't bet on sports. Once PayTv goes.....sadly it will be easy

to move on. Any suggestions for a new hobby? Cool
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 9:30 AM BST
get into breeding imo

the breeders run the whole show, pumping up prize money through increased taxes so they can charge more for yearlings and service fees

only worry will be when all you pros stop betting it will collapse - forget that plan Sad

stamp collecting???
Report nickw April 11, 2012 9:35 AM BST
Yep the end is near....

you have to feel that betfair have not help themselves at all...
why are they still betting on NSW why are they betting INPLAY on Nsw?
they should have pulled the pin the ages ago
Report Live_in_Hope April 11, 2012 9:36 AM BST
end of the game for me too
i think i will start racing pigeons
Report Thebas April 11, 2012 9:37 AM BST
moody and co have been pushing for this .. before the verdict .. so no surprise .. just dissapointment

1.5% to 2% at carnival time ... too cynical for words

will it be possible to have the UK Main Wallet a/c still available for the USA .. if they dump aussie racing

i wouldn't put a penny thru any t@b after this .. and can't get set from the corps ... sick stuff
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 9:43 AM BST
US is too early in the morning Thebas - UK could be the go Cool
Report Kye April 11, 2012 9:47 AM BST
I'm confident some states might stay. Put this way if BF only operated on Tassie then surely turnover would be good & the industry there would make a fair quid from BF without needing a turnover fee.
Report Live_in_Hope April 11, 2012 9:48 AM BST
this would include dogs and trots?
Report nickw April 11, 2012 9:51 AM BST
Kye.. i wonder if tassie is the only  state left standing which will probably happen... they will prob be pushed to sky 2 until there contract expires and then black banned alltogether unless they conform
Report Thebas April 11, 2012 9:51 AM BST
lol womble - UK is too late at night for an oldie like me - the 4am USA morning punt would be best Laugh
Report Kye April 11, 2012 9:54 AM BST
good point Nick but BF have their own live video if things get really bad
Report uncleee April 11, 2012 9:58 AM BST
sports are going to the turnover model as well, at the least the nrl are for sure
Report aachen April 11, 2012 10:15 AM BST
dogs in nsw are still with 15% on profit
and seem happy with it...
Report MaxSalty April 11, 2012 10:20 AM BST
guess not publishing the form guide had the desired effect - oh dear oh dear - how much are some getting paid for these non decisions ?
Report Joel April 11, 2012 10:24 AM BST
I'll probably just kill myself when they leave Australia.
Report Hal April 11, 2012 11:15 AM BST
Why not 5% on the Caulfield, Melbourne Cups and Cox Plate.Sad
Report eight ball April 11, 2012 11:19 AM BST
BF have had several hurdles since their inception into Aust'03, this by far the biggest.

The original 'BF Crew' were always aware that they were treading on dangerous grounds, unfortunately they never put a contingency plan together just in case a scenario that has happened would.

In the UK there are several heads working overtime before they think about leaving Australia.As a public company this type of retreating would have bigger implications than just affecting Aust.

Sidetracking just for a moment, if the ASX applied this T/O format to every single share that was traded daily,well do the math, the Stock Exchange would never exist.

Anyhow the main issue will still be: Can BF survive if they bail out of Oz
1.They lose their biggest A/C(ZR)almost 68% of Australia's T/O on BF
2.The depleted share price will have shareholders(UK)bailing out of the company.
3.As has been seen others(Codes) will now review their standings/contracts with BF.

Probably other reasons as well, the only 'glimmer' I see is if BF could Replicate how they got into Aust(legally)and try a similar deal with NZ.
Would that still entitle NSW to apply a T/O on NZ racing ? since NSW only provide the picture ?.I guess if that happened NSW would stop televising NZ racing anyway.

Gut instinct suggests all is not lost but expecting the worse might see no Racing/Harness/Greyhounds.
If the UK shareholders keep solvent a watered version(selected sports) might still exist on Aust BF.

Will a Protest change things ? not long term unfortunately, sadly the main reason (my opinion)that had peoples interest was simple," I don't like the fav but i got no idea what wins, great,Lay it.
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 11:29 AM BST
only way they can justify staying is to push up commission to cover the increased costs Eight Ball - they aren't a charity.  Can they do that and survive??? I guess we'll know before too long
Report Hal April 11, 2012 11:30 AM BST
What are they waiting for. Surely they were not surprised by the result.
Report HarryHindsight April 11, 2012 11:31 AM BST
Hard to say betfair have handled this competently. I guess the lawyers and execs all got paid well.
  Their shares should be 2p if this is their lot.
I read the company changed when the founders etc. got pushed aside when it floated ?
Report swansdude April 11, 2012 11:53 AM BST
Been handled badly from day one. Hopefully we get an honest statement from them in the near future regarding there plans and no simple bullshit press release so we can work out our options
Report swansdude April 11, 2012 11:59 AM BST
I can see a levy on win bets being the only option they could possibly take, which screws us and we will ultimately be the ones who decide their fate. Hopefully tomorrow we get some news.
Report HarryHindsight April 11, 2012 12:10 PM BST
The racing industry what's their plan. That we all come down to the local TAB and play ?
Cutting off an income stream in recessionary times doesn't seem to bright to me.
Anyone got a guess what TAB turnover will do if/when betfair is gone ?
Report swansdude April 11, 2012 12:19 PM BST
They don't want to understand, until theres a drop they will not care one little bit
Report frog2 April 11, 2012 12:26 PM BST
TAB 'turnover' is boosted by rebates anyway. Charge a turnover fee and the ability to give rebates drops. Therefore turnover drops. Arbing between Betfair and TABs will also disappear so TAB 'turnover' drops again.

Punters only have a certain amount of money to lose. If you operate on lower margins they play longer for the same loses. Increase the margins then turnover obviously will drop. Its not rocket science. If punters were losing $100m last year they are not going to suddenly lose $200m the next year because u increase the margin. They still only have $100m to spend.

If they lose too quickly on racing they will move to other lower margin products. So infact the $100m will probably drop to $60m.

Racing will see a short term boost from this and then a long term big decline.

No laying + No trading + No inplay + High Margins = Declining Turnover
Report Kye April 11, 2012 12:30 PM BST
Agree totally frog.

I wonder how much BF made on Golden Slipper day. if it was next to nothing then what are they waiting for. the decision to pull NSW should have been made sooner rather than later. The longer they wait the more the industry will make up its mind to go down this path.
Report frog2 April 11, 2012 12:37 PM BST
Victoria had a real chance to get all the sponsorship, all the revenue and all the promotions. Activity would have moved from NSW to VIC with increased betting pools and exchange revenue.

There is nothing on Racing Victoria website about this so it might not be accurate. It would be odd to decide to switch so quickly without any studies being done.

Its a shame Mark Davies and the other founders are not involved anymore to make quick decisions.
Report Hal April 11, 2012 12:37 PM BST
I think scabs will hold more, there are too many desperates. Not all Betfair turnover will go over but enough for NSW Racing to justify their action. Longer term turnover will decline and turnover costs and takeouts will increase with no effective competition.
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 12:46 PM BST
funny thing with punting is the opposite rule applies - the big dollar players are the ones that are more price sensitive, in the main - i.e. care more about the price they get and the takeout / margin - although there would be some big dollar mugs that don't care as well

except of course the ones that play the tabs, despite the margins, because they get rebates
Report HarryHindsight April 11, 2012 1:23 PM BST
Appeal the appeal or lodge a new claim somewhere. Kick the can down the road is the popular thing to do. Another 12 months would be fine thanks.
Report Josh-T April 11, 2012 1:50 PM BST
Well the High Court is gone, but the ACCC is still an option. It was mentioned in the wake of the initial Federal Court loss, but probably made sense to stay on one path (the appeal). So you never know....
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 11:49 PM BST
only heard the end of the interview with Rob Hines (RVL boss) and he was sprouting some rubbish about having to move to a turnover model OR all the corporates would target Victoria and reduce TAB turnover which makes them more money CrazyCrazyCrazy

also said is was for 12 months so they can compare the figures, I think, so that opens the door to Betfair - turnoff the exchange and show them the actual result

he also mentioned it won't be until the legislation in Victoria is changed to match that in NSW but either way not until August and a current Federal Court case between Sportsbet (?) and Harness Racing Victoria - expected to be handed down this month
Report ta1 April 12, 2012 12:31 AM BST
Contact RVL and Racing NSW with your disgust. THe best thing to do.


They have no future in mind. Short sighted gain.
People want value, people have many means to find value. Look at Retailers, if they dont innovate and have other offerings they loose share. Plenty have gone under recently for just standing still with there offerings.
1.5% is rediculous, let alone 2%.

I have already reduced my NSW wagering, now I will have to do with same for VIC.
More time into Dogs and sport now.
The margin we had cannot remain it appears, time to shop elsewhere

Good Bye to in play in australia racing highly likely. if 1.01 gets hits successfully many time without going under, could turn markets into extremely low profit if any.
Report Josh-T April 12, 2012 1:09 AM BST
Womble I implore you and everyone else here to listen to the whole Hines interview. It was in a word: bizarre.

If he came onto the show to justify/explain the switch he failed a high school debating class miserably. The national approach I think was the only argument for. He actually argued for the revenue model in every other instance. He even suggested/said they are likely to lose market share (more of it) to sports! 

Again so many questions - it's as if the strings are being pulled by Tabcorp with the change, yet he didn't argue for it. Maybe he wants a new job soon.

I think given the head of racing in Victoria has admitted they may lose market share & competition, I think the ACCC might be worth investigating again.
Report Barney The Bot Slayer April 12, 2012 2:01 AM BST
Betfairs stance is , to me, unfathomable. They should have  pulled the pin on NSW as soon as the decision came down. Vic would have reasoned that what they are getting from B/F would surely be better than nothing.

The only logical thing to do is to pull the pin,
If they continue to operate, then logically it is profitable.

as for the INPLAY, it will stop in the next week or so
Report Josh-T April 12, 2012 3:19 AM BST
They've wanted to keep the customer happy for as long as possible Barney but I agree it's time. The Sydney carnival mucks it up a little with ante-post betting.

Victoria can't change their model until at least August and it may be longer, and I think QLD is June 30. Whether they have enough time to demonstrate what we are all thinking here is up for debate but you'd think it would be worth a shot.
Report Barney The Bot Slayer April 12, 2012 3:32 AM BST
they could pull the pin in NSW except for the ante-post markets
Report Barney The Bot Slayer April 12, 2012 3:34 AM BST
Josh i am not sure B/f are that interested in keeping the customer happy.

like every one else that a driven by the bottom line IMHO
Report Josh-T April 12, 2012 3:40 AM BST
That's true, maybe I'm naive and could have just been waiting for Victoria. We should know in the next day or so.
Report OnTheChase April 12, 2012 3:58 AM BST
Betfair might introduce a turnover tax for racing.  This could apply to each bet at 1.5% of the back bet and could be paid from the winning side of the bet.
Report Barney The Bot Slayer April 12, 2012 4:01 AM BST
if somebody was to back something back with me and I win I pay the 1.5%?
Report Castiron April 12, 2012 4:08 AM BST
The days of Betfair caring about their customers, ended when the company was floated.

PC 1 and 2 lay testament to that.
Report OnTheChase April 12, 2012 4:08 AM BST
Yes.  If he wins, he pays.  Anyway, just an idea.  Would probably still be competitive.
Report Josh-T April 12, 2012 4:09 AM BST
Castiron I don't dispute that, but I've been successful and never had to pay the PC. That's why I'll always support Betfair.
Report Barney The Bot Slayer April 12, 2012 4:12 AM BST
On the chase.
The prob with that is that I want to know what I am up 4 B4 the race not after.
Report PCisaripoff April 12, 2012 6:18 AM BST
Up the charges for customers to between 8-10%

Or maybe the greedy ****s could charge a PC of 80%
Report Kingston Town April 12, 2012 6:22 AM BST
I have never understood why they wanted an Aus licence. As a customer nothing improved for me but that may have been because of the way I operate. My carribeean friends get by well without an Aus licence. Do the powers that be know they exist?

My Sydney & Melbourne laying activities are marginally profitable now. This fy profit before commission $17,108, commission $12,290. An increased base rate soon wipes me out. I must get the golf sticks out of the shed.
Report Joel April 12, 2012 6:23 AM BST
I would assume it was so they could legally advertise here for a start
Report Mahogany April 12, 2012 6:30 AM BST
So they are happy to tell punters to pay 60% PC take it or leave it, but now they are not happy when they get slugged 1.5% Surprised
Report PCisaripoff April 12, 2012 6:31 AM BST
Mahogany knows hos stuff

Nobody feels good getting bent over
Now they know how it feels WhoopsWhoops
Report aronpeace April 12, 2012 6:34 AM BST
Prediction - 1.5% Turnover fee to be split between backer and layer.  Each player pays 0.75%.  Will effectively end 'one-tick scalping' profitability, but still workable for higher margin trades.  Betty to use Australian Racing as testing ground for new model for 12 months, and will show racing jurisdictions there is no benefit in changing current model.
Report eight ball April 12, 2012 9:14 AM BST
Prediction

In 2005 i mentioned that VicTAB had also registered its own Betting Exchange.

Don't be surprised once BF fold up, (which is looking ominous after Vic Racing's response) that in the 'not so' near future VicTAB start up their own Betting Exchange.

2005-Register several names to include Betting Exchange.
Reason: If we can't stop BF by barring/banning/slandering, then if by per chance in say 10 years(2015) BF fold up or we find a way to break them then we create our own.
Objective:Fill the void of past Betfarians left out in the cold & set our own commissions, giving VicTAB a win/win

Laymans Glossary:Cash in on someone's successful formula, shaft'em out through the courts and Bingo !!!
Report Josh-T April 12, 2012 9:48 AM BST
Without anything to back me up, I don't believe Victoria would go down the exchange route. It's Betty or bust.
And forgive me for having a chuckle for thinking there's anyone here that could help them build one.
Report aronpeace April 12, 2012 9:55 AM BST
Eight Ball, if VicTAB starts an exchange it would be faced with the same turnover fee issues as Betfair.
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