Forums

Australian

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
wombleoz
09 Apr 12 04:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 12,882 | Blogger: wombleoz's blog
Hey All

Public holidays can be boring so I've tried to do a few sums Happy

This is all based on the only available figures I've seen (Andrew Twaits figures produced in court)

Pre 1.5% - Gross Profit $625,000 (rounded) - 56% margin on gross revenue (roughly gross revenue of $1.1 million)

Post 1.5% - Gross Profit $46,000 - 2% margin on gross revenue

assuming the difference between the two figures is the 1.5% turnover tax - that tax would be approximately $580,000

meaning turnover would be approximately - rough rounded figures $40 million for the 7 months in question (does that sound a bit low???)

this would mean average commission of 2.75% ($40 million divided by gross revenue of $1.1 million - assuming gross revenue = turnover * commission)

stick with me here Happy

so in kind of accounting terms (I did some at TAFE many years ago) Gross Profit = Gross Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

So on the original figures - Gross Profit $625,000 = Gross Revenue $1.1 million - COGS ($475,000)

with the 1.5% tax on turnover - COGS increases by the tax - i.e. $580,000 to $1,055,000 (roughly)

so to maintain the same Gross Profit

Gross Profit $625,000 = Gross Revenue $1,680,000 - COGS $1,055,000

So Turnover = $40,000,000 and Gross Revenue needs to be $1,680,000 therefore the commission rate needs to average

drumroll Happy

4.2%

which is an increase of roughly 1.5% - what the???  I did all this to work out that the turnover tax and increase in commission would be the same???  CryCryCryCryCryCry  am I wrong???

well actually it means the average commission would need to go up roughly 53% ShockedShockedShocked

I'm in holdiday mode and my brain is only half working, does someone want to chech my figures???

note - there are plenty of assumptions in these figures
Pause Switch to Standard View how much would commission need to...
Show More
Loading...
Report Kye April 9, 2012 5:03 AM BST
My only comment if BF did increase its commission by 53% or higher would be that this would have a significant effect on the number of punters that win over the long run. BF would become unprofitable except for a v small no of punters.
Report aachen April 9, 2012 5:10 AM BST
i pay 3% commission
and make about 2% on turnover

if that goes to 4.6% (53% increase )

i would make 0.4 % on turnover

not enough to make a living and
not enough margin for error.

i'd be off looking for a real job
Report Kye April 9, 2012 5:14 AM BST
aachen, i think it is worse than that calculation b/c you dont pay 3% commission on turnover. you pay on profit from winning markets & don't get a refund of commission on losing markets. It is impossible to calculate the effect but it would be bad!
Report aachen April 9, 2012 5:31 AM BST
hahahaha thanks Kye

my bad calculations or worse, I can't make it work for me  !!!

I pay betfair about $55 000 a year.

that goes to noting if i don't put money through !!!

I think betfair will pass some of the cost to users

but not the whole amount.
Report wombleoz April 9, 2012 5:59 AM BST
would be plenty of pros out there living on around 2% of turnover aachen - lucky there are plenty of jobs in mining Wink
Report wombleoz April 9, 2012 6:31 AM BST
great point Kye - makes a HUGE difference
Report aachen April 9, 2012 7:01 AM BST
what's mining?
Report wombleoz April 9, 2012 8:29 AM BST
wow - you really don't know what work is Shocked

mining as in digging stuff out of the ground
Report Talsac April 9, 2012 8:39 AM BST
Well say you have $10,000 at $1.01 and it wins, you make $100 and pay BF 5% commission = $5

Betfair must pay 1.5% turn over tax.

$10,000 x 1.5% = $150

Betfair just lost $145!

In the above example even if they took 100% commission, all your winnings(!) they still lose on the transaction!
Report Beat The OverRound April 9, 2012 9:21 AM BST
It's only a matter of time that the NSW decision will open the floodgates for other states. The tax imposed makes it totally not viable to operate in Australia. Betfair cannot be competitive with other products on offer.
Commission on turnover means that either Betfair will lose out (which isn't going to happen), or punters will no longer be able to operate successfully.
Report lazza April 9, 2012 11:56 AM BST
If the Layer takes the bet ..Then he pays the turnover tax...pretty simple ..he is the one playing the roll of bookmaker isn't he?
Report Josh-T April 9, 2012 1:59 PM BST
I don't mind that argument Lazza in isolation. But the issue is when that 'bookie' (in this case an exchange layer) wants to bet back.  In NSW the bookie gets a rebate for that. So the bookie can 'trade' but an exchange play can't? That's unfair. Just another piece that's unfair!
Report Monday mike April 10, 2012 7:24 AM BST
Maybe Betfair will sell their exchange to Tabcorp.  Tabcorp may make an offer they can't refuse.  Hope I'm wrong, but who knows.
Report Kye April 10, 2012 7:29 AM BST
$100 should buy Aust operation buy after High Court decision.
Report justthetip April 11, 2012 1:33 PM BST
I only bet on Australian racing and betfair have taken over $700000 off me in the last 9 months in PC. Where is that in the profit figure???
Report Castiron April 11, 2012 1:37 PM BST
At that rate, it wouldn't taken you long to use your thousand pound allowance.
Report wombleoz April 11, 2012 1:50 PM BST
these figures are from 2008-09 PC wasn't around yet Wink

if you're a genuine punter i feel for you though - i.e. not a trader/cruncher/arber etc
Report Monday mike April 11, 2012 10:31 PM BST
On Saturday justthetip, could you post your winning selections so I can lay them all.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com