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Missing the Cut

Funny Friday

03 Sep 15 23:12
It's as if the golf was waiting for me.

Running Bank 126pts

Doing these professional exams again this week. Doesn't get any easier. Someone said to me during the week. "maybe you are not an exam person!!

But that is the total opposite. I am an exam person. I've been doing exams since for the last 10 years. Whether I'm good at them is the Q?

This weeks "exam" on the PGA Tour brings together the new Big 3 on golf with Day, Rory & Spieth all at single figure prices. Something about taking a single price in golf that doesn't sit right. Maybe in a field with little depth it would give me confidence but in a field with this much quality my eyes quickly move down the page.

Brooks Koepka 40/1 2pts ew King of the bombers
Louis Ooostuizen 48 1pts win exchange Bi curamach
Paul Casey 60/1 1pt ew Betfred
Ryan Palmer 130 1pts win exchange
Harris English 290 2pts win exchange 1pts Top 10 10/1 BetVC
Brendon De Jonge 740 0.5pt win exchange 4pts Top 20 11/1 skybet

Total outlay 15.5 pts
Balance 110.5pts
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Charl & Casey came good for me last week on EW money for a 66.4 pts return for my 40pts outlay.

Running Bank now 146 pts.

The golf thread on the Irish sports section of betfair forum is always a good read with callitasucit a notable poster who does an impressive write up most weeks and posts up regular 3 ball tips during the tournament. Always good to hear different opinions in the week up the event. There is only so much time in the day and if others can cut down on the workload it makes final picks much easier.

This weeks picks.

Czech Masters - Snap from last week.

Saw enough to suggest I was on the right track last week. Lipsky especially looks primed for a good finish.

David Lipsky 50/1 Stanjames 2pt EW
Kevin Phelan 80/1 Stanjames 1.2pt EW

The Barclays - Playoffs

Course will not play like 2011 and I am looking towards recent form for my selections.

Off the top of the betting Justin Rose stands out. Plays these technical courses very well but @ 12/1 he is passed over.

Settled on 2 players coming coming to the boil.

Charl Schwartzel 60/1 Bet365 4pts EW - We have seen his form turnaround since the US Open. Following him on shottracker last week he played very solid. Driving it well, GIR stats excellent, scrambling always is top notch...only putting let him down. Had a negative in his strokes gained putting but only need a small percentage shift and he would have won last week. Need to move into Top 70 to qualify for next week. Incentive is there.

Matt Kuchar 34/1 EW 6 places Betbright 2.8pts EW - Another on his way back to form. Canadian Open, WGC and PGA Champ were all good performances. He is trending in the  right direction and unlike Charl Kuchar is a very consistent putter. 2nd here in 2011 has played well here in the past. I've said I am more concerned with recent form but course form is not a negative either.

Outlay 20pts
Bank 126pts

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Make or Break

19 Aug 15 22:54
Licking my wounds after last week. Lost a bit of discipline with bet sizing and ended up a bad week in the end.

To help with discipline I am keeping a bank update.

Bank 120 points. ATM 1 points is €25

2 tourneys.

Made in Denmark.

Was an excellent event last season but its position after the PGA champ means it fails to get a great field again.

David Lipsky 66/1 2pts EW
Kevin Phelan 125/1 2pts EW Disaster of a final round in Madeira took him out of contention. 2 pt EW PP

Both value plays. I like Marc Warren but 9/1 is very tight.

Wyndham Championship

A better field than usual.

Paul Casey 34/1 2pts EW Betbright 6 places
Brendon de Jonge 150/1 4pts EW PP 6 places
Webb Simpson 2pts EW BFred
Harris English 70/1 4pts Win Exchange
Charl Schwartzel 50/1 4pts EW Boils

Top 20
Gonzalo Fdez Castano 10/1 4pts B 365 - I've been banking the Gonzo drum for the last few weeks and although he hasn't got in serious contention there has been an upturn in form after a poor start to the season. Needs a Top 2 finish here to get into playoffs. Unlikely, but I can see him playing well again.

Total Outlay 40pts

Even looking at that it is a huge outlay.
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Major letdown

19 Aug 15 21:37
Going into the PGA at Whistling Straits I had Oosthuizen & Stenson as my main hopes with a a good back up team of Schwartzel, Casey, & Dustin.

Louis and Stenson never got going but with Kaymer & Dustin thereabouts I had constructed a good book by Sunday evening against Day & Spieth.

Alas neither got going.

Dustin bogeying the Par 3 17 did the EW money and my other T10 bet on Brendan Steele went boom when he missed a 8ft putt for par on 18.

Lost a bit of discipline with some of my 18 hole match betting so I would say it was a reckless week. Need to be more disciplined.

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