angeleyz

making his first start for david evans, fleetwoodsands has been installed as favourite for the 3.45 at lingfield this afternoon. had this been at wolverhampton, i doubt i would have even given this one a second glance given that six of his seven career victories have come at that track. his record at lingfield from 3 attempts reads 558. at first glance he would appear to be coming into this race in decent enough form, having finished 3rd to jonnie skull. but given the fact that it came at possibly his favourite venue and the fact that he finished over 3 lengths behind the first and second certainly leaves a few nagging doubts about him.

he also has to overcome a break of 306 days and his recent record when making his first start of the season is far from inspiring as it reads 8504 for the last 4 years, so he will almost certainly be better for the run, unless his new yard have done something remarkably different.

for me two horses stand out. reginald claude should get the fast pace he requires with the likes of waterloo dock and imperial spirit regular front runners. he also looks well handicapped, now racing off the same mark as he did when beating powerful pierre by just under a length.

another potentially well handicapped horse is catalinas diamond who is now racing from a 5 pound lower mark than she did when beating dorothys dancing last february.

personally i have managed to lay fleetwoodsands for small amounts so far and i am hoping he comes back in for some support to take the rest.

best of luck to anyone having a bet today.

well what can i say about today. originally i was leaving today alone on the laying front. mainly because i didnt think i would be able to lay the horse i wanted too at short enough odds. imagine my delight when money poured in for pineau de rei. i had checked the racing post early on in the day at about 8.30 am for the latest going report which said the ground was heavy. so in the afternoon when i saw the horse in question was around 7/2 fav, i thought yippee as there was just no way i could see him winning on heavy ground.

having layed to win £150 at 4.5 i went in again at 4 and again at 3.75, in total to win £450. what happened next of course was pineau de rei absolutely romped home leaving me totally bemused. of course i then find out that they had changed the official going to soft, which left me feeling more deflated. first of all i would point out that i am not saying it would have been a different result on heavy ground, such was the dominance of the winner, but then again who knows as there is quite a difference between soft and heavy. but what i would say is that if i had known about the ground change then i almost certainly would not have layed in the race, as my analysis of the race was based on the going being heavy.

of course it was entirely my own fault for not checking again prior to laying, but i do find it hard to believe the going could change like that in the space of a few hours, and therefore i doubt if the going was heavy first thing in the morning.

one of the reasons my laying had improved so much over the past few years is cutting out stupid mistakes such as today's. fortunately it has only cost me around £1400 and with my current strike rate being at a reasonable level, it shouldn't take too long to claw back.

well it seems money has come for pineau de rei in the 3.40 exeter and is currently 4.5. i will now split my lay into three parts. 1/3 to lay at 4.5 and for the remaining two parts i will attempt to lay at 4 and 3.75.

well having gone through tomorrows cards, i just dont see anything really worthwhile taking on at the odds on offer. for me it looks like more of a backing day. george benjamin should take all the beating in the first at southwell but the odds at the moment look a little cramped to say the least although he did touch 9/4 for a short time on here, but only for a couple of pounds. i thought he won with a fair bit in hand last time when beating munaawib by a length over course and distance.

munaawib re-opposes here and is only a pound better off as he has since gone on to beat lutine charlie(who also runs here) by just under a length over course and distance, and there should be little to chose between those two on the revised terms.

at exeter the 3.40 was a race i was hoping to have a go at. for me there are two that stand out here. firstly nick giffords tullamore dew has run in some top class handicap chases over the last few years, and in theory he should find this much easier. he comes here in pretty good form having finished 2nd to cloudy too at wetherby and there i don't think there is anything of that ones class in here. looking back to january of last year, tullamore dew finished 4th to katenko at cheltenham and if he ran anywhere near that level of form, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

unfortunately it seems many odds compilers agree and have installed him as fav. i was kind of hoping they would plump for pineau de rei, who i would have taken on at much shorter odds.

i do think there could be a bit of a dark horse lurking in this race too. david pipe's runner shaking hands is capable of a lot better than he has shown recently although i think he was in the process of running a much better race last time out when falling at newbury. i notice david pipe has three entered for the race and i do wonder whether he has kept junior in to keep the weights down for shaking hands and alderluck.

hopefully the weather will relent and wednesday will provide some better laying opportunities.

best of luck to anyone having a bet tomorrow.

well that was an interesting first day for my blog. my first intended race, the 3.00 plumpton, i felt i had no choice but to trade out on saroque, as more rain than was forecast fell overnight. i felt that was detrimental to the chances of avoca promise and de blacksmith who i had rated as the two most likely challengers to saroque on soft ground.

i may be a little controversial here but i have to say i cannot believe connections ran avoca promise on that ground, especially as they must have seen the previous races. i think they risked serious harm to the horse who clearly hated the ground and surely they must have known that would be the case.

de blacksmith just about handled the conditions but again i feel the ground was too bad for him and i am sure he will be seen to better effect on less testing going. in the end, saroque was beaten fair and square at a betfair sp of 2.9. i still think i made the right decision to trade out as i do think the heavy ground actually helped his cause, even though he could only manage 3rd.

for my second lay i decided to go against echo brava in the 3.20 at lingfield. unfortunately i didnt get a lot matched at my first asking price of 3.25 and i was hoping to lay lower. in the end it was a strange race. i fancied slip of the tongue and mica mika to go well but both were somewhat disappointing. but i did think the race had a fair amount of strength in depth and it was the mark johnston runner blue wave who bounced back to form in some style. i kind of overlooked him as i thought looking at the form of his last few runs, i got the feeling there was a problem with the horse. one thing i had overlooked, which i was later informed by fellow poster crepello (ty for that) was that the horse had since been gelded.

so overall i am pretty satisfied with the first day, roll on tomorrow.

just been looking through the aw cards again at lingfield and there could be a decent laying opportunity in the 3.20. echo brava was installed as fav for this class 4 handicap over 1m4f and is currently around 3.3 on betfair. luke dace's runner has won his last two races including one over course and distance and runs today with a six pound penalty following a comfortable win at kempton last time. i am never one to go overboard about form in amateur riders races (no offence to them) and i think that run was actually below the level of form he showed when beating special mix at this track back in december. for me that was probably a career best effort, but in my opinion, even a reproduction of that would still leave him with a few pounds to find at these weights.

personally i think the one to beat here is slip of the tongue who back in august, also posted a career best performance over course and distance when making all the running to beat knights parade by a length. if slip of the tongue is fit after a lay off, then i think he will take a lot of beating here.

one who i would not completely rule out either is mica mika who is potentially well handicapped again following a few disappointing efforts, but im sure he is capable of much better than he has shown recently.

in laying echo brava i am splitting my lay into three parts and i will attempt to enter the market firstly at 3.25 then lay again should he hit 3 and finally go in again at around 2.74-2.76 should support continue for him.


best of luck to anyone having a go at this race.

well, following the suggestions of a few people on the forum, i have decided to start a blog focusing mainly on laying but i will also try to give my views on what i think will win particular races. i'm not sure if there is any right or wrong way to lay horses and im sure everybody has their own opinions on what price to lay at, which particular type of race is best to lay in, whether you should risk a certain amount or whether you should aim to win a certain amount etc etc.

but here is my own personal strategy. i really do believe in laying low and backing high. in my early days on betfair, i learned this the hard way, in fact i have lost count of the number of times i chased the odds when laying. by this i mean that when i thought a certain horse was beatable, if that horse had opened up at say 2/1 (or 3 on here) and had drifted out to say 4 or 5/1, i would still lay at those odds. experience has since told me that sometimes you have to let it go and wait for another day, as i have found that generally it is just not profitable to go after a horse, even if your opinion tells you that the horse is 'up against it'. i much prefer to lay a horse that when the bet is matched, it is done so at the lowest odds it has ever been at that time.

one thing i am constantly doing is studying form, and all my lays and bets are usually decided upon the night before. however, there are occasions when i will simply cancel all my bets the following day if there has been any significant ground changes or if there has been any withdrawals that i think may improve a horses chance.

i never bet in play and all my bets are placed pre race. reason being, i think i would be at a distinct disadvantage unless i was actually on the course, as i can never tell just how delayed the video links are.

when laying, i decide how much i want to win. many other people will do the opposite and only risk a certain amount. the reason i chose to win a certain amount was simply my own view that it is a more positive approach, though as i said previously, i'm not sure if there is a right or wrong way. one thing i do know is you should never risk your full bank as a number of forum posters seem to suggest. the levels i bet at are levels that i feel comfortable with. it has taken me quite some time to get to the level i am at now and i am under no illusions as to just how easy it would be to give it all back.

anyway, on to my first race which weather permitting will be the following:

3.00 Plumpton

firstly i am hoping that the ground doesn't turn heavy, but the forecast according to the bha suggests it should be dry overnight with maybe a shower in the morning. saroque has generally been put in around 6/4 fav for this class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f and i think he is worth opposing. a winner last time out at newbury, when beating glen countess by 4 lengths, the venetia williams' 7-year-old has been raised 8lbs for that success and i am far from convinced there was anything special about that performance. in fact i would even go as far as to say that overall it was actually below the form he showed when finishing runner up to cruising bye at ffos las. looking at the newbury race it is worth noting that one of his main opponents that day, castle conflict, ran no sort of race at all and was eventually pulled up. de blacksmith, who re-opposes here, unseated when still travelling okay, which left just three horses to beat. in my opinion, if a couple of his opponents turn up here at the top of their game, then saroque will have a real battle on his hands.

the one i like the most is avoca promise. i think his performance at huntingdon back in october, when beating loudmouth by a length, is better than anything saroque has achieved to date. the question is of course, can avoca promise regain that kind of form. i think there are valid excuses for his last two runs. his penultimate start was a highly competitive listed chase at ascot, which may have come a bit too soon at this stage of his chasing career, though he was not unfancied that day by any means. last time out, when second to knock a hand at carlisle, he simply refused to settle early on, which often happens in 3 runner races, and when push came to shove, he had little left in the tank. having said that, knock a hand is fairly useful on his day anyway and is currently rated around 138 by the handicapper. it's interesting that avoca promise dons blinkers for the first time here, and if they help him concentrate and settle better, i think he will be difficult to beat.

it's also interesting that de blacksmith re-opposes here and he would not be without a chance either. as previously mentioned, he unseated behind saroque last time out when still going well enough at the time. his best effort appeared to come in his first attempt at the larger obstacles when finishing a close second to uxizandre over course and distance. the alan king runner has since bolted up in a novice chase which obviously impressed the handicapper enough to raise his rating to 152. i wasnt surprised de blacksmith disappointed next time out when 4th to toby lerone at lingfield, as the ground that day was just a bog and if you can forgive that run, then i would not be surprised if he did turn the tables on saroque.

so how will i play this race? well for the lay of saroque i will be splitting it into 3 parts. i will attempt to enter the market at around 6/4 or to be precise 2.5 on here. for the 2nd part i will be looking to go in again at 2.24 and for the 3rd part at exactly 2. if none of my lays are matched i will simply let it go, but hopefully he will come in for support.

i will also be having a win bets on avoca promise and de blacksmith and i will discuss my staking for win bets at another time.


very best of luck to anyone who decides to follow this blog and thanks for taking the time to read it.

well this is annoying to say the least. having spent so long typing this, it seems plumpton have had more rain than they anticipated and the going is now described as heavy. under these circumstances, i would trade out of any lays that were matched at 6/4, at the current odds of around 15/8. i guess this is one of the problems of posting something the night before.

my reasons for this are that i could not trust de blacksmith and avoca promise to run to their best on this ground.