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Callisto-moon
13 Apr 21 17:00
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Date Joined: 08 Aug 16
| Topic/replies: 6,925 | Blogger: Callisto-moon's blog
I THINK IVE FOUND THE WINNER JUST TRYING TO GET THE POUNDS ON.

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Replies: 80
By:
Ramruma
When: 15 Apr 21 03:03
Good luck. The danger of betting so early, or one danger anyway, is of fighting the last war: finding the horse who would have won this year given different circumstances. Cloth Cap, assuming he gets a wind op; Any Second Now who might have won if Double Shuffle hadn't stopped him almost to a walk; Farclas with a bit more stamina; Burrows Saint with a professional jockey.

I think that is what happened this year. Lots of people backed horses who might have won in 2020 had the race not been called off, which is why there were so many older horses backed.
By:
Callisto-moon
When: 21 Apr 21 16:32
yes i think a few bet on potters corner with that same mindset this year.
By:
angrybryan
When: 28 Jul 21 22:08
The deciding factor in a horse winning the National is luck! The horse that fell in front of Any Second Now, rolled over after falling to his, right bringing Mark Washes mount to a standstill.Had the faller rolled after falling to its right it would have brought the winner down who was on the rails.
By:
angrybryan
When: 29 Jul 21 18:46
Got that last bit wrong.should have read. Had the faller after falling rolled to his left
By:
irishone
When: 10 Nov 21 06:49
12 out of first 15 last year were Irish trained
It might be a good starting point for this year !
By:
sageform
When: 10 Dec 21 20:12
Commodore must be at least a credible runner next year. He should go up to 140 after today so needs one more good run to get high enough in the weights.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 02 Feb 22 21:14
    Achille  (FR) 12 Mrs Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
    Agusta Gold  (IRE) 9 Dr S. P. Fitzgerald Willie Mullins Ireland
    Alpha des Obeaux  (FR) 12 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Anibale Fly  (FR) 12 Mr John P. McManus Tony Martin Ireland
    Any Second Now  (IRE) 10 Mr John P. McManus Ted Walsh Ireland
    Assemble     8 Gigginstown House Stud Joseph O'Brien Ireland
    Back On The Lash     8 Mr M. Boothright Martin Keighley
    Battleoverdoyen  (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Blaklion     13 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton
    Brace Yourself  (IRE) 9 Mrs Patricia Hunt Noel Meade Ireland
    Braeside  (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Brahma Bull  (IRE) 11 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland
    Burrows Saint  (FR) 9 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland
    Caribean Boy  (FR) 8 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
    Chantry House  (IRE) 8 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson
    Chatham Street Lad  (IRE) 10 Mr V. Healy Michael Winters Ireland
    Chris's Dream  (IRE) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland
    Class Conti  (FR) 10 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede Willie Mullins Ireland
    Cloth Cap  (IRE) 10 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
    Cloudy Glen  (IRE) 9 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Venetia Williams
    Coko Beach  (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Commodore  (FR) 10 Mrs C Watson & Mrs S Graham Venetia Williams
    Conflated  (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Court Maid  (IRE) 9 Rory F. Larkin Thomas Mullins Ireland
    Death Duty  (IRE) 11 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Defi Bleu  (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Definite Plan  (IRE) 10 Mr James J. Reilly Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Deise Aba  (IRE) 9 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Philip Hobbs
    Delta Work  (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    De Rasher Counter     10 Makin' Bacon Partnership Emma Lavelle
    Didero Vallis  (FR) 9 Normans, Ramsay, Tufnell & Bishop Venetia Williams
    Dingo Dollar  (IRE) 10 M Warren J Holmes R Kidner & J Wright Sandy Thomson
    Discorama  (FR) 9 Andrew Gemmell/Thomas Friel Paul Nolan Ireland
    Discordantly  (IRE) 8 The Odd Fellows Partnership Jessica Harrington Ireland
    Domaine de L'Isle  (FR) 9 12 Oaks Racing and Mr Ian Hutchins Sean Curran
    Double Shuffle  (IRE) 12 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
    Easysland  (FR) 8 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill
    Eclair Surf  (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle
    Eklat de Rire  (FR) 8 Mr P. Davies Henry de Bromhead Ireland
    Elegant Escape  (IRE) 10 Mr J. P. Romans Colin Tizzard
    El Presente     9 Davies Pilkington Yarborough Brooke Kim Bailey
    Enjoy d'Allen  (FR) 8 Railway View Stud Partnership Ciaran Murphy Ireland
    Escaria Ten  (FR) 8 McNeill Family Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Eurobot     8 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade Ireland
    Farclas  (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Fiddlerontheroof  (IRE) 8 Taylor, Burley & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard
    Fortescue     8 Mr T. F. F. Nixon Henry Daly
    Franco de Port  (FR) 7 Bruton Street V Willie Mullins Ireland
    Freewheelin Dylan  (IRE) 10 Miss Sheila Mangan Dermot Anthony McLoughlin Ireland
    Full Back  (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore
    Galvin  (IRE) 8 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Go Another One  (IRE) 10 Ms Caroline Ahearn John McConnell Ireland
    Good Boy Bobby  (IRE) 9 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
    Gwencily Berbas  (FR) 11 Mr Aidan J. Ryan David Pipe
    Highland Hunter  (IRE) 9 Mr T. Barr Paul Nicholls
    Hill Sixteen 9 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson
    Itchy Feet  (FR) 8 Kate & Andrew Brooks Olly Murphy
    Jerrysback  (IRE) 10 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs
    Jett  (IRE) 11 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Olly Murphy
    Kalooki (GER) 8 Mr Andrew L. Cohen Philip Hobbs
    Kapcorse  (FR) 9 Mr John P. McManus Paul Nicholls
    Kauto Riko  (FR) 11 Mr and Mrs J.Dale and Partners Tom Gretton
    Kildisart  (IRE) 10 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Ben Pauling
    Larry 9 Galloping On The South Downs Partnership Gary Moore
    Longhouse Poet  (IRE) 8 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil Ireland
    Lord du Mesnil  (FR) 9 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
    Lostintranslation  (IRE) 10 Taylor & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard
    Mac Tottie 9 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen
    Melon 10 Mrs J. Donnelly Willie Mullins Ireland
    Mighty Thunder 9 Allson Sparkle Ltd Lucinda Russell
    Milan Native  (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Minella Times  (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead Ireland
    Mister Fogpatches  (IRE) 8 Mr J. B. Fahy Pat Fahy Ireland
    Mister Whitaker  (IRE) 10 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain
    Mortal  (IRE) 10 Mr A. Dunlop Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Mount Ida  (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Noble ****  (IRE) 7 Mr P. Byrne Emmet Mullins Ireland
    Off You Go  (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Charles Byrnes Ireland
    Ontheropes  (IRE) 8 Cheveley Park Stud Willie Mullins Ireland
    Phoenix Way  (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Harry Fry
    Pink Eyed Pedro 11 Mr David Brace David Brace
    Plan of Attack  (IRE) 9 Mr A. Halsall Henry de Bromhead Ireland
    Poker Party  (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland
    Potters Corner  (IRE) 12 All Stars Sports, Davies & RacehorseClub Christian Williams
    Robin des Foret  (IRE) 12 The 119 Partnership John McConnell Ireland
    Roi Mage  (FR) 10 Mr D. G. Pryde Patrick Griffin Ireland
    Romain de Senam  (FR) 10 Judith Wilson David Pipe
    Run Wild Fred  (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Sam Brown  10 Mr T. C. Frost Anthony Honeyball
    Samcro  (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Santini     10 Mr & Mrs R. Kelvin-Hughes Polly Gundry
    School Boy Hours  (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Noel Meade Ireland
    Scoir Mear  (IRE) 12 Mr John P. McManus Thomas Mullins Ireland
    Secret Reprieve  (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
    Smoking Gun  (IRE) 9 D.Barnard,N.Courtney,M.Madden,Gin&GGee's Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Snow Leopardess 10 Andrew Fox-Pitt Charlie Longsdon
    Stones And Roses  (IRE) 8 P. Reilly/C. Reilly Willie Mullins Ireland
    The Big Dog  (IRE) 9 Damien J. Kelly/Colin Kelly Peter Fahey Ireland
    The Hollow Ginge  (IRE) 9 The Ginge Army Nigel Twiston-Davies
    The Two Amigos     10 Bradley Partnership Nicky Martin
    Tiger Roll  (IRE) 12 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
    Time To Get Up  (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill
    Top Ville Ben  (IRE) 10 Harbour Rose Partnership Philip Kirby
    Two For Gold  (IRE) 9 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership 2 Kim Bailey
    Uisce Beatha  (IRE) 9 The Has Been's Sophie Leech
    Via Dolorosa  (FR) 10 Judith Wilson David Pipe
    Windsor Avenue  (IRE) 10 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
By:
sixtwosix
When: 05 Feb 22 20:06
My early pick is Enjoy D'allen ....third in Irish Grand National , 3rd in the PaddyPower and fifth in a competitive hurdle today.

That might be it if they are targeting Aintree.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Feb 22 18:12
Death Duty, a horse who's lost his way somewhat last season. Personally, Tiger Roll is definitely past it and fodder for the bookies; Champ is not in it, I wonder why?
By:
ENGLANDBARNES1
When: 15 Feb 22 18:23
Escaria ten looks chucked in off the Galvin form last March! I’ve missed the 25/1 though but 26’s is still available.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 15 Feb 22 18:28
10 5 for Enjoy D'allen . number 43 .....looking good.....
By:
The Dragon
When: 15 Feb 22 19:26
snow leopardess looks a great bet to me if a runner  on at 25/1
By:
irishone
When: 15 Feb 22 22:19
Tiger Roll will not bid for a record-equalling third Randox Grand National triumph after being ruled out of the Aintree spectacular by his owner Michael O’Leary.

The Ryanair supremo, whose horses run under his Gigginstown House Stud banner, has issued a statement criticising British Horseracing Authority chief handicapper Martin Greenwood, describing his rating of 161 for Tiger Roll as “absurd”.

O’Leary’s decision came just hours after the weights for the world’s greatest steeplechase were announced at a special ceremony in Liverpool with Tiger Roll, trained by Gordon Elliott, being allotted 11st 4lb.

His statement read: “Tiger Roll is now 12 years old, He is clearly not as good as he was at eight or nine, and yet the UK handicapper now rates him 2lb higher than his 159 rating in April 2019, when he won both the Boyne Hurdle and the Aintree Grand National.

“This rating is absurd, and unfair on a 12-year-old chaser. It is a pity that the handicapper won’t give Tiger Roll either a fair rating or a fair weight in the Aintree Grand National, where he could at least try to emulate Red Rum’s three wins.

“However, the handicapper sets the weights and even if he is manifestly wrong in the case of Tiger Roll, there is nothing we can do about it other than remove him from the race, since we don’t believe it is fair or safe to ask him to carry close to top weight at the age of 12.

“Since the top two horses in the handicap won’t run in Aintree this year, Tiger Roll will have to carry either 11st 8lb or 11st 9lb at the age of 12, which is three years after he carried 11st 5lb at the age of nine to win the great race in April 2019.
By:
ashleigh
When: 16 Feb 22 07:42
Ts on the grand national

Longhouse poet 33/1
Braeside e/w 50/1 

(Prices for information only)
By:
ashleigh
When: 16 Feb 22 07:43
Fred  nrnb on the grand national .
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 16 Feb 22 10:55
Although worse off with Burrows Saint, who I don't think will stay again, I thought Farclas could easily improve on last years position.  I think that one interests me alongside the weight on Coko Beach on a line through Run Wild Fred but it would need to be soft (albeit unlikely).
By:
kevinglass
When: 16 Feb 22 11:53
O'Leary obviously would have taken his ball home as a kid, when playing football, if he was losing.

Quite fancy Discorama myself this year.
By:
Bentring
When: 18 Feb 22 07:35
^^^^Restrictions got 2u then obviously
By:
sixtwosix
When: 18 Feb 22 09:34
If the race was run tomorrow with the top 40 running .....27 from Ireland , 13 from UK.

Reminds of the Prix D'Labbaye and the token French runners......
By:
metro john
When: 20 Feb 22 14:57
In my opinion on current entries, Escaria Ten , looks reasonably treated, but non runners do very often bring others into play.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 24 Feb 22 16:30
Enjoy D'Allen joined the green and gold......glad I have taken the price.
By:
MartinK
When: 05 Mar 22 22:13
The Bailey stable has indicated that - Two For Gold - had a hard race at Ascot and that he'll be rested and as long as he's recovered from his run and conditions are soft then he'll run in the National for which he'll carry 10-11 (as long as the top weights hold their ground - but weights may well rise 6lb with defections). He's been put up to 159 after his 2nd at Ascot last time, but will run off 154 in the national.

Now, I think that as long as there is soft in the going description he'll run since he's won on GS, but the softer the better for him.

The big question is will he stay. He has the same sire as Galvin (Gold Well) who won the 3m6f (used to be 4m) National Hunt chase at last years festival and is 22/1 for this year National as well as 4/1 2nd fav for the Gold Cup. But Galvin's dam sire was Moonax who was twice 2nd in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran over 2m4f, whereas Two For Gold dam sire is Shernazar who was middle distance rather than a stayer.

He's twice won over 3 miles and the one time he tried 3m2f was in the 2020 Ladbroke at Newbury on good going when he was pulled up, so no one knows and it's a risk but Kim Bailey worked for the great Fred Rimell who trained four grand National winners back in the day and he always felt that a good National Horse wants two and a half miles which Two For Gold gets well. Not that I necessarily agree but it informs Kim Baileys view and would be another reason to run.

OK he's a long shot, but as a 9yo he's at the height of his powers having been raised from 150 to a career high of 159 (runs off 154 in the National) this year. I have him at an average of 126.0 (90 still available) and as long as he gets into the race I can see him being much shorter on the day and I should be able to have a free bet at a nice price, or more likely lose it all !!
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Mar 22 20:18
Good shout with Enjoy D'Allen, Sixtwosix.

Fabulous topped Escaria Ten at 40s over on the AP forum.

There are some shrewdies on here.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Mar 22 20:18
*tipped
By:
sageform
When: 24 Mar 22 18:35
My early short list.
Burrows Saint
Fiddlerontheroof
Snow Leopardess
Deise Aba
Fortescue. No bets yet.
By:
paulo47
When: 24 Mar 22 18:57
Ha ,also on Fortescue , plus that grey of Venetias that dotted up at HQ , Commodore (may not get in ) and HDB's recent purchase Court Maid (just on the offchance of a certain jockey ).
By:
differentdrum
When: 27 Mar 22 20:56
Two questions. Will Snow Leopardess stay (it was soft but it didn't look like she wanted a yard further than 3m2f) and is Longhouse Poet heading for Aintree or Fairyhouse?
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 28 Mar 22 01:40
Blaklion.

I would like to see connections quietly withdraw this 13yo from the entry.
It would do the racing industry no good whatsoever to have a horse regarded as a pensioner hurt in this race and anything can happen.
It wouldn't do the horse any good either.
He;s already run in three - does anyone think he's going to improve to win one?
By:
sixtwosix
When: 28 Mar 22 08:25
Six against the field

Enjoy D'Allen
Fiddlerontheroof
Escaria Ten
Discorama
Court Maid
Run Wild Fred

Any Second Now , wiped out by fall of Double Shuffle.....but he did make other mistakes
Delta Work , beating 12 year old Tiger roll on ground that the tv experts told us he did not like ....does not make an 8/1 shot with 2 weeks to go.
Snow Leopardess , don't think she wants to lead for another mile further than the Becher.
Burrows Saint , did not like how he tailed off in last race.
By:
Rydal
When: 28 Mar 22 09:43
13 year olds have a better record in the race, than 7 year olds.
By:
Rydal
When: 28 Mar 22 09:45
Highland Hunter scratched this morning.
By:
sageform
When: 28 Mar 22 13:27
So Nicholls without a runner?
By:
.Marksman.
When: 28 Mar 22 15:58
I don't like Snow Leopardess in this.  People will latch on to her because she is a mother:  There is a ready made story for once a year bettors.  But she has got used to going off in front and I can't see her stamina lasting at 4 miles plus.
I prefer Delta Work as he is is the best horse in the race going by his best form and he has won 4 times at G1 level.  All this top form was at least 2 years ago, but it is quite possible that he can recapture it as he is still only 9.  His win in the cross-country at Cheltenham hinted at a return to form and though beating 12-y-o Tiger Roll was nothing special, he was strongest at the finish.  The cross country course hadn't been watered and the ground probably wasn't that bad at all, so he may not have had as hard a race as the horses in the other races on that day.  (Tiger Roll's good run suggests this)
Furthermore, Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown both have a good record in the National.
By:
paulo47
When: 28 Mar 22 18:05
There was a major debate on here at the time Delta Work started going downhill after his Irish Gold Cup win in Feb 2020 and the possible reasons for it . Jack Kennedy's injury , sloppy jumping when crowded by horses etc however he never ran appallingly , just poorly . His jumping also tended to lack fluency . Perhaps the softer topped fences in the cross country and the national may just be the thing that sparks a revival . Like many on here I have a soft spot for the horse .
By:
differentdrum
When: 28 Mar 22 23:27
Snow Leopardess is 5lbs higher than that Becher win, and on her only venture over a longer distance she was well beaten in the National Hunt Chase. As she jumps so well it would seem pointless trying to hold her up. I think she would have a better chance of winning a Topham, but lots of people are going to be drawn in by the form figures, the course win, and the mere fact she is a grey.
By:
differentdrum
When: 28 Mar 22 23:28
On the plus side Alice Plunkett is bound to tip it so that might deter a few people.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 29 Mar 22 19:31
and being a single Mum means that she will tick some of the woke boxes (Snow Leopardess, not Alice).
By:
Somerset Sam
When: 29 Mar 22 20:21
The price has gone to an extent on Enjoy D'allen and I'd have him on a shortlist however if you fancy him then you'd have to also consider Freewheelin Dylan.

Nationals are won by horses who jump, travel and get into good rhythms in their races, all the things he did in last years Irish National when Enjoy D'allen was back in third. He's still weighted to finish in front of him and the runner up that day, Run Wild Fred, yet is 50/1 generally. So long as the going stays decent he should go well at a big price off a decent break which he had before his Irish National win as well.

Really looking forward to the race, gl all.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Mar 22 21:46
Money back if selection does not make the cut, right? Elliot is very keen on Death Duty (25/1) for the Irish version, if he gets in; 42nd only 30 max (I think).
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